The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[GG]

5 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Going by Mayo Clinic's estimate that for Covid 19 70% of the population needs to have been infected to reach it

 

That 70% figure is part of the panic porn, because they represent it as the number of people who were infected by the virus, as opposed to the number of people who have been exposed to the virus.  There is a good number of people who may be naturally resistant to the virus in the first place, which is proven by less than 100% infection rates of immediate family members.   So if you look at the recent estimates that up to 30% of people in highly infected areas had the virus, and apply a similar percentage to people who were exposed, but didn't contract it (ie almost everyone under 20), then you can easily get to 60% exposure to the virus in the last 6 months. 

 

The anecdotal evidence proves it by the almost complete elimination of the spread in regions that got hard hit in Feb - April.

[Chef Jim]

19 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Going by Mayo Clinic's estimate that for Covid 19 70% of the population needs to have been infected to reach it

 

Good start.  What percentage of the population has been infected? 

[Koko78]

37 minutes ago, B-Man said:

How Many COVID Deaths Are There, Really?

by John Hinderaker

 

Original Article

 

Currently the Centers for Disease Control says there have been 121,809 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. Most people, seeing that figure or reading newspaper headlines about Wuhan virus deaths, assume that means that in 121,809 cases, COVID-19 has been the cause of death. But that isn’t true at all. This Issues & Insights editorial does a good job of bringing together some of the relevant data. But let’s start with something they didn’t mention: this acknowledgement by the Director of the Illinois Department of Public Health: I just want to be clear in terms of the definition of people dying of COVID.

 

 

MORE AT THE LINK:

 

 

Well, as some of us around here have pointed out, dying WITH and dying OF are not the same thing.

 

Of course, this type of story will never see the national spotlight, because it goes against the narrative that idiots like King Andrew are our saviors in 'this troubled/trying time'.

[Warren Zevon]

23 minutes ago, GG said:

 

That 70% figure is part of the panic porn, because they represent it as the number of people who were infected by the virus, as opposed to the number of people who have been exposed to the virus.  There is a good number of people who may be naturally resistant to the virus in the first place, which is proven by less than 100% infection rates of immediate family members.   So if you look at the recent estimates that up to 30% of people in highly infected areas had the virus, and apply a similar percentage to people who were exposed, but didn't contract it (ie almost everyone under 20), then you can easily get to 60% exposure to the virus in the last 6 months. 

 

The anecdotal evidence proves it by the almost complete elimination of the spread in regions that got hard hit in Feb - April.

 

You are more reliable than Mayo Clinic - no doubt about it. Thanks for controlling the panic porn.

 

 

5Genius

[GG]

1 minute ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

You are more reliable than Mayo Clinic - no doubt about it. Thanks for controlling the panic porn.

 

Then why are they conflating infections with exposure?

 

1 minute ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

5Genius

 

Get your Jergens ready

 

Quote

Trump administration officials have talked about inserting the federal government deep into the private sector to stiffen global competition against Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co.

..

Other proposals would support “open” network technology that would make it easier for U.S. startups to develop new technology for 5G equipment.

 

[Warren Zevon]

31 minutes ago, GG said:

The anecdotal evidence proves it

 

We'll see 5G

[GG]

Just now, Warren Zevon said:

 

We'll see 5G

 

Still waiting for the Hasid funeral apocalypse.  Any day now.

[BillStime]

Image this:

 

A pandemic the worst in a lifetime
Millions are infected
Thousands will die. 

 

And Trump makes moves to take away citizens’ healthcare?

 

Welcome to reality under Donald J Trump.

 

Obamacare Must 'Fall,' Trump Administration Tells Supreme Court

 

And where is TrumpCare? It was ready to go day one 3.5 years ago?

 

Trump made promises and Americans died.

[GG]

Just now, BillStime said:

Image this:

 

A pandemic the worst in a lifetime
Millions are infected
Thousands will die. 

 

And Trump makes moves to take away citizens’ healthcare?

 

Welcome to reality under Donald J Trump.

 

Obamacare Must 'Fall,' Trump Administration Tells Supreme Court

 

And where is TrumpCare? It was ready to go day one 3.5 years ago?

 

Trump made promises and Americans died.

 

Who was mostly responsible for the largest number of deaths?

[Magox]

56 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

More on schools.
 

 

 

@Gene Frenkle is going to need to conduct his own testing to believe these stories.

And so much for That ridiculous hypothesis that was promoted earlier.

 

 

 

 

Except the red counties did much better from the get go

[Chef Jim]

9 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Trump made promises and Americans died.

 

What does this mean? 

[Buffalo_Gal]

22 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

@Gene Frenkle is going to need to conduct his own testing to believe these stories.

I posted in the national open up thread that Fairfax VA schools are not opening in the fall (2 days max IF you choose that), and today CT said it will be opening schools, NJ is close to a decision (which sounded like yes to reopening). That is helpful. Not only will schools reopening help businesses get back to normal, but if kids are not carriers (which I find hard to believe, but the data that has come out seems to support that they are not super spreaders/getters) they will be fine.

The teachers will get it, and help spread it, helping us reach herd immunity. Now, if I am a 60 year-old+ teacher or school administrator with some other health issue? I might seriously consider retiring. But otherwise? I think schools opening go a long, long way to normalcy and economic recovery.

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[meazza]

Crazy how ***** @Warren Zevon & @BillStime are.

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, meazza said:

Crazy how ***** @Warren Zevon & @BillStime are.

 

Don't forget the Mayo Clinic in this fantastic analysis. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

? ? ?
 

 

[BillStime]

Why is this ok? Where is the outrage?  Trump and his buddies are in it for themselves - and we are reminded everyday.

 

A Company Run by a White House “Volunteer” With No Experience in Medical Supplies Got $2.4 Million From the Feds for Medical Supplies

[meazza]

5 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Don't forget the Mayo Clinic in this fantastic analysis. 

 

What he's saying is correct.  Every area that was hit hard is no longer having cases.  Same thing here in Montreal where areas that were originally badly hit are no longer hot spots.  

 

There are also numerous studies showing that a significant percentage of the population is not even susceptible to the virus which decreases the required herd immunity.

[GG]

9 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Don't forget the Mayo Clinic in this fantastic analysis. 

 

Why aren't they differentiating exposure and infections?

[Warren Zevon]

4 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

What he's saying is correct.  Every area that was hit hard is no longer having cases. 

 

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Why aren't they differentiating exposure and infections?

 

You tell me 5G. Are you sure they're not differentiating? 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

Why aren't they differentiating exposure and infections?

I'm getting tested for antibodies tomorrow (first draw was bad). Are you saying if I test positive for antibodies I'll be a 'new case'?

[meazza]

Just now, Warren Zevon said:

 

 

You tell me 5G. Are you sure they're not differentiating? 

What kind of an answer is that ?  Do you ever think for yourself or simply defer to authority which has been changing their stance on this over the last 4 months ?

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

 

You tell me 5G. Are you sure they're not differentiating? 

 

Read their guidance for yourself.  The specifically state "infected", while most academic articles discuss "exposure"  Two different animals

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

I posted in the national open up thread that Fairfax VA schools are not opening in the fall (2 days max IF you choose that), and today CT said it will be opening schools, NJ is close to a decision (which sounded like yes to reopening). That is helpful. Not only will schools reopening help businesses get back to normal, but if kids are not carriers (which I find hard to believe, but the data that has come out seems to support that they are not super spreaders/getters) they will be fine.

The teachers will get it, and help spread it, helping us reach herd immunity. Now, if I am a 60 year-old+ teacher or school administrator with some other health issue? I might seriously consider retiring. But otherwise? I think schools opening go a long, long way to normalcy and economic recovery.

 

Don't forget about as well CDC covid19 Kawasaki like happening to kids as well. I think school's going to use caution. On the phone hard to link and details. I think know what I mean?

Edited June 26, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[GG]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I'm getting tested for antibodies tomorrow (first draw was bad). Are you saying if I test positive for antibodies I'll be a 'new case'?

 

Don't know how that would be reflected in the statistics.  Assuming that if you had been negative before, but will no show positive for antibodies, you will be a new case.

 

The point is that Mayo is saying that herd immunity is achieved after 70% of the people were infected, as opposed to being exposed to the virus.

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Don't forget about as well CDC covid19 Kawasaki like happening to kids as well. I think school's going to use caution. On the phone hard to link and details. I think know what I mean?

That Kawasaki disease went away as quickly as it came. 

[Warren Zevon]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Read their guidance for yourself.  The specifically state "infected", while most academic articles discuss "exposure"  Two different animals

 

Johns Hopkins

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

 

We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”¹ of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh² recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

 

Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%^3–5 of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%^6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.⁸

 

Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”⁹ akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.⁹

 

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

 

As we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening,¹⁰ it is important to understand how vulnerable we remain. Increased testing will help us better understand the scope of infection, but it is clear this pandemic is still only beginning to unfold.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Warren Zevon

[GG]

Good move by Abbott to slow down the reopening by cutting back on social activities.  Based on precedent, they will hit a peak 2-3 weeks from now, and can resume after that.

[meazza]

Just now, GG said:

Good move by Abbott to slow down the reopening by cutting back on social activities.  Based on precedent, they will hit a peak 2-3 weeks from now, and can resume after that.

 

I will begin to worry when former hot spots such as NYC, Milan and Montreal start to flare up again.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Johns Hopkins

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-experts/early-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

 

We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”¹ of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh² recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

 

Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%^3–5 of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%^6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.⁸

 

Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”⁹ akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.⁹

 

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

 

As we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening,¹⁰ it is important to understand how vulnerable we remain. Increased testing will help us better understand the scope of infection, but it is clear this pandemic is still only beginning to unfold.

 

Do you even bother comprehending what you post.  Here's the operative statement:

 

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. 

 

That includes people who were infected or are immune from the get go.

[Warren Zevon]

Just now, GG said:

 

Do you even bother comprehending what you post.  Here's the operative statement:

 

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. 

 

That includes people who were infected or are immune from the get go.

 

Cool - my original point before you went on your wild tangent is we have not reached herd immunity like was claimed. 

5 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

 

[GG]

1 minute ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Cool - my original point before you went on your wild tangent is we have not reached herd immunity like was claimed. 

 

 

It wasn't a wild tangent.

 

Let's replay for the ######ed.

 

Using CDC data that over 20% of the US was already infected (real number likely higher), and estimates that 20%-30% could be naturally resistant, gets you very close to herd immunity.  Which is fully supported by a near full stop of the spread in ALL early hard- hit areas.

[Warren Zevon]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

estimates that 20%-30% could be naturally resistant

 

Where are these estimates from? Outside of your posts I have yet to hear this theorized. 

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Where are these estimates from? Outside of your posts I have yet to hear this theorized. 

 

The data is out there if you weren't lazy.  Start with the basics that <20 yr olds are 50% less likely to get infected.  Not be asymptomatic, but not susceptible to get the virus in the first place.  So please tell me why 20% natural resistance across the population is out of whack?

[Warren Zevon]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

The data is out there if you weren't lazy.  Start with the basics that <20 yr olds are 50% less likely to get infected.  Not be asymptomatic, but not susceptible to get the virus in the first place.  So please tell me why 20% natural resistance across the population is out of whack?

 

Your numbers make sense but your assumptions behind them I find faulty. I'd be interested in reading some scientific articles on the percentage of the population that has natural resistance to coronavirus.

 

I've Googled/DuckDuckGoed: "Coronavirus natural resistance" and "covid natural resistance" but could not find any. Feel free to share.

 

Happy Friday - Silver Lake calls, time to rev up the boat. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

27 minutes ago, meazza said:

That Kawasaki disease went away as quickly as it came. 

Arizona 3 days ago fox news posted on it. Busy day I'll link it later still on phone  saw it couple minutes ago

[GG]

Just now, Warren Zevon said:

 

Your numbers make sense but your assumptions behind them I find faulty. I'd be interested in reading some scientific articles on the percentage of the population that has natural resistance to coronavirus.

 

I've Googled/DuckDuckGoed: "Coronavirus natural resistance" and "covid natural resistance" but could not find any. Feel free to share.

 

Happy Friday - Silver Lake calls, time to rev up the boat. 

 

There are no studies on this yet because it's a bit unethical to expose people to a live virus fir which there's no cure.   The anecdotal evidence is overwhelming though, especially when you look at cases that come from confined spaces, such as ships, nursing homes, meatpacking, prisons & large families living together.

[Magox]

Another interesting tidbit

 

 

[BillStime]

48 minutes ago, meazza said:

Crazy how ***** @Warren Zevon & @BillStime are.

Want to know what is crazy?

 

8,942 new cases in Florida and 13% positive rate, meaning that is an undercount.  

 

Complete incompetence by Trump puppet 
Governor Ron DeSantis.

 

Pray for the people of Florida.

 

Florida adds another 8,942 new COVID-19 cases, breaking single-day record again

 

• June 18: 3,207
• June 19: 3,822
• June 20: 4,049
• June 21: 3,494
• June 22: 2,926 
• June 23: 3,286
• June 24: 5,508
• June 25: 5,004
• June 26: 8,942

[GG]

6 minutes ago, BillStime said:

Want to know what is crazy?

 

8,942 new cases in Florida and 13% positive rate, meaning that is an undercount.  

 

Complete incompetence by Trump puppet 
Governor Ron DeSantis.

 

Pray for the people of Florida.

 

Florida adds another 8,942 new COVID-19 cases, breaking single-day record again

 

• June 18: 3,207
• June 19: 3,822
• June 20: 4,049
• June 21: 3,494
• June 22: 2,926 
• June 23: 3,286
• June 24: 5,508
• June 25: 5,004
• June 26: 8,942

 

Tell us when Florida approaches this graph that was created by your hero and that you celebrated with glee

 

[Chef Jim]

56 minutes ago, meazza said:

What kind of an answer is that ?  Do you ever think for yourself or simply defer to authority which has been changing   absolutely ***** wrong about almost every ***** stance on this over the last 4 months  ?

 

Corrected because you were being too nice.