The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[TPS]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

How do you know this?  I see this repeated as a truism in the media, but I’m not aware of any actual evidence to support it.  It’s more of a perception, really.  The US is a huge a diverse country and it’s impossible to accurately generalize about whether the country is behind Europe or not.

 

In many states the rates of death and hospitalization are stable or even declining, and it is unlikely that their health care systems will ever be overwhelmed, an outcome you seem to assume is inevitable.

Maybe he looks at data?  According to the Johns Hopkins site, using "days since 100 cases," Italy is on day 35, the US is on day 25, 10 days behind.

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

Hmmm...Birx now predicting 100-200K deaths, so why are they inciting fear now?  Fake news?  Inflating the expectations so they can tout success when they're lower? So many questions...

You need to sit back and take your bias out of the equation here. You have put yourself in a position of being somewhat or fully against everything the Trump administration does. You used to be considered as a reasonable liberal. Now you are closer to Tiberius than Doc Brown.

[mannc]

Just now, TPS said:

Maybe he looks at data?  According to the Johns Hopkins site, using "days since 100 cases," Italy is on day 35, the US is on day 25, 10 days behind.

As discussed previously in this thread, the “number of cases” metric is essentially worthless.  On a national basis, it is really nothing more than a function of how extensive testing is at any given time.  You can’t seriously contend that there is any point in time where we knew how many infections there were in the entire US, or in Italy, for that matter.

[3rdnlng]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

Maybe he looks at data?  According to the Johns Hopkins site, using "days since 100 cases," Italy is on day 35, the US is on day 25, 10 days behind.

That would be accurate if they were running on the same racetrack.

[B-Man]

Signs Emerging That Seattle Has Flattened The Curve

I remember a researcher who’s tracking the genomes of strains in the Seattle area saying earlier this month, “January 1 in Wuhan was March 1 in Seattle.” Washington state could experience the same disaster that China did, he said — if nothing was done urgently to mitigate the disease’s spread. But something was done. Seattle was among the first places in the U.S. to encourage stringent social distancing.

 

Result: Wuhan had to be locked down on January 23 in an urgent attempt to stop the virus’s spread. Whereas Seattle is now 29 days removed from March 1 and the contagion has slowed, based on the available (and incomplete) evidence. Hospitals there aren’t overrun. There’s no Wuhan scenario brewing for the moment. And there might not be one if people there continue to hunker down this month.

 

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/30/signs-emerging-seattle-flattened-curve/

 

 

 

 

Those Plastic Bag Bans Aren’t Looking So Good Right Now

https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2020/03/30/plastic-bag-bans-arent-looking-good-right-now/

 

 

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[Pine Barrens Mafia]

15 minutes ago, TPS said:

Hmmm...Birx now predicting 100-200K deaths, so why are they inciting fear now?  Fake news?  Inflating the expectations so they can tout success when they're lower? So many questions...

 

You're an ass. With a hat on it.

 

[Bob in Mich]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I am well aware of the fact they are ahead of us. Whether or not, you want to admit it, the travel bans and measures put in place have contributed to the delay of the spread here. That delay has allowed us to take measures to increase to manufacturing of needed medical supplies, erection of temporary hospitals, and other steps neccessary to prevent our medical systems from being overwhelmed to the point you are seeing in other countries.

 

Why don't you quit complaining and pointing fingers. It isn't helpful to anyone.

 

How is it helpful to claim we have done a good job when we actually haven't?   Yes, we are going as fast as possible now.  That should have happened weeks earlier though.  You can choose to ignore those poor decisions if you wish. 

 

I have tried to be helpful throughout, unlike those that chose to ignore the experts and the math and chose to minimize the severity of this situation.  How helpful was it a few weeks back to imply this was all being overblown?   I am glad I didn't encourage anyone to take this lightly.  Were you one of those science deniers on this issue?

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, westside2 said:

Good Lord Bob, just give it up. You're a puppet with a pull string. You pull your own string and repeat the same BS every time.

 

 

 

Sorry you don't like my postings and my warnings on this crisis.  Put me on ignore but first, please point out my posts that have been off base so we can discuss.  I think I began posting in this thread around 3/12. 

[Warren Zevon]

21 minutes ago, TPS said:

Hmmm...Birx now predicting 100-200K deaths, so why are they inciting fear now?  Fake news?  Inflating the expectations so they can tout success when they're lower? So many questions...

 

I would like to note what was once "the Democrat Hoax" (reporting on scientific models in February) is now Dr. Birx's position.

 

Bob is also right on as usual.

[B-Man]

 

 

[Bob in Mich]

On 3/15/2020 at 8:42 AM, Bob in Mich said:

The worst case projections are if we do not get control of the outbreak.  Taking precautions and slowing the group transmission rate will lower the most dire death prediction numbers....hopefully. 

 

The logic behind 'flattening the curve' seems to make a lot of sense.  If we can keep the need for the most scarce resources (like breathing machines) spread out over time, we can keep more people alive.  The eventual number of infections might be the same either way but if the requirement for the ventilators doesn't exceed available machines, those that need them to live will be able to get them.

 

Those calling for extra caution really can never 'win'.  They are currently looked at as like Chicken Little, and so foolish.  If generally speaking, slowdown measures are not followed, worst case scenarios could play out and lots of folks perish.  If folks listen to the warnings and take slowdown measures, less people will die and the Chicken Littles will be criticized later for scaring everyone when, 'look, only x thousands died'.

 

Want to discuss this post? What was wrong in this post?

[Deranged Rhino]

Brutal: 

 

People like Bob get their news from her, and wonder why they're so badly misinformed. 

 

[Warren Zevon]

[Deranged Rhino]

This goes here as well: 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

****************

 

30 more days will never hold. 

 

It'll get violent before then. We've freely given up our rights to help the cause -- that won't last. People will test the limits and then authorities will have a real decision to make. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Deranged Rhino

[Foxx]

31 minutes ago, mannc said:

As discussed previously in this thread, the “number of cases” metric is essentially worthless.  On a national basis, it is really nothing more than a function of how extensive testing is at any given time.  You can’t seriously contend that there is any point in time where we knew how many infections there were in the entire US, or in Italy, for that matter.

there is an equation that can get a pretty accurate guesstimate for total cases, both diagnosed and not. this is how they arrive at the seasonal flu numbers. however, those factors are not readily known and at best, would be wildly unreliable at the '100 cases' level.

[B-Man]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[mannc]

Just now, Foxx said:

there is an equation that can get a pretty accurate guesstimate for total cases, both diagnosed and not. this is how they arrive at the seasonal flu numbers. however, those factors are not readily known and at best, would be wildly unreliable at the '100 cases' level.

Given how little is known about CV19, as opposed to the flu, those “total case” numbers really are guesswork at this point.  That’s why there is so little agreement on the “mortality rate”, as well; it’s impossible to say what the mortality rate is when we don’t have a handle on the actual number of infections.

[Deranged Rhino]