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nrenegar

Size and Top Speed - Bills vs the Rest of the NFL

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I just saw an interesting post from NFL Next Gen Stats, showing the weight and top speed (MPH) for a number of offensive players in the NFL this year (credit: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1217540824809914368).

 

From the graph you'll notice that a lot of the guys near the Pareto curve in size vs speed are among the most effective offensive players in the league (i.e. nobody as big is faster, or nobody as fast is bigger). Some standout names here are Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Christian Mccaffrey, Travis Kelce, and Odell Beckham Jr.

 

On the Bills, there's just a single player who's substantially above average for these metrics: Josh Allen. In fact, only two other Bills players are barely over the average line, and the rest are all below.

 

For me, this is a clear indication that the Bills could benefit tremendously by adding top athletes to the offense.

EOWS6iCVAAIiMrh.jpg

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Reasonable take. 

 

One could argue Dawson Knox appears to possess high end athleticism. "Top speed" is not a very holistic assessment of explosiveness or agility (although many of the fast guys are those things as well). 

 

But yeah, your conclusion is difficult to dispute.

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Just now, Richard Noggin said:

Reasonable take. 

 

One could argue Dawson Knox appears to possess high end athleticism. "Top speed" is not a very holistic assessment of explosiveness or agility (although many of the fast guys are those things as well). 

 

But yeah, your conclusion is difficult to dispute.

I'd guess he's one of the two Bills players above the average line,  at ~255lb. Impressive that Kelce is noticeably faster at a slightly bigger size, though.

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29 minutes ago, nrenegar said:

I'd guess he's one of the two Bills players above the average line,  at ~255lb. Impressive that Kelce is noticeably faster at a slightly bigger size, though.

 

I'm guessing you're correct.  The other Bills player slightly above the average line would probably be John Brown, at 178 lbs and 20.5 mph

 

I'd love to know who the Ravens guy is that's overlapped by Josh Allen. 

I also wish they labeled Lamar Jackson.  I'm guessing he's at 20.4 mph and 212 lbs, overlapped by a Cowboys and a Texans player.

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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm guessing you're correct.  The other Bills player slightly above the average line would probably be John Brown, at 178 lbs and 20.5 mph

 

I'd love to know who the Ravens guy is that's overlapped by Josh Allen. 

I also wish they labeled Lamar Jackson.  I'm guessing he's at 20.4 mph and 212 lbs, overlapped by a Cowboys and a Texans player.

Gus Edwards I think

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2 minutes ago, nrenegar said:

Gus Edwards I think

 

That's actually pretty amazing.  The guy was an UDFA.

 

Course Allen is amazing too:

Top Golf MC: "Kid out of Wyoming, he's gonna turn out to be a freak athlete at the NFL level, that's what nobody was thinking"

Allen (deadpan): "Me neither"

 

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Damn Darren Waller is a beast!  Dude is 255 and running 21.5 MPH?  That's crazy fast.

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm guessing you're correct.  The other Bills player slightly above the average line would probably be John Brown, at 178 lbs and 20.5 mph

 

I'd love to know who the Ravens guy is that's overlapped by Josh Allen. 

I also wish they labeled Lamar Jackson.  I'm guessing he's at 20.4 mph and 212 lbs, overlapped by a Cowboys and a Texans player.

 

10 hours ago, nrenegar said:

Gus Edwards I think


good guess... he’s a 4.5 guy at 235ish

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I'm assuming this is speed tracked in a game situation rather than them coming to training and asking them to do a timed sprint, if so the top speed measurement depends a great deal on game context, i.e. has Dawson Knox been in a situation where he has caught the ball in space and has had the chance to open up and sprint for more yards?  I cant remember too many instances of this for Knox.  He was usually wrapped up quickly or fighting (very effectively at times) against tacklers for more yards.

 

Just my take.

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Meh, Bills are about average in terms of most position groups on that side the of the ball. They produce at a below average level. That needs to be A-number 1 going foward.

 

-Why are we producing at a low level with what seems to be average NFL players? Honestly part of that is Allen and part of that is Daboll. 

 

-If we truly do have bottom 5 talent on the offensive side of the ball, then we have to ask very major questions of the FO too, because we brought in new starters at WR(2), OL(4), RB (2), TE(3).  

 

A big time WR would be awesome, I think every franchise would agree. But I am not sure that is THE biggest issue

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11 hours ago, nrenegar said:

I just saw an interesting post from NFL Next Gen Stats, showing the weight and top speed (MPH) for a number of offensive players in the NFL this year (credit: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1217540824809914368).

 

From the graph you'll notice that a lot of the guys near the Pareto curve in size vs speed are among the most effective offensive players in the league (i.e. nobody as big is faster, or nobody as fast is bigger). Some standout names here are Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Christian Mccaffrey, Travis Kelce, and Odell Beckham Jr.

 

On the Bills, there's just a single player who's substantially above average for these metrics: Josh Allen. In fact, only two other Bills players are barely over the average line, and the rest are all below.

 

For me, this is a clear indication that the Bills could benefit tremendously by adding top athletes to the offense.

EOWS6iCVAAIiMrh.jpg


Disparity between 40 time and top speed is interesting.

 

No wonder Niners MB is so deadly on the sweeps. 
 

is it a coincidence, or do titans favor big and fast over quick? 

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood

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36 minutes ago, Mango said:

Meh, Bills are about average in terms of most position groups on that side the of the ball. They produce at a below average level. That needs to be A-number 1 going foward.

 

-Why are we producing at a low level with what seems to be average NFL players? Honestly part of that is Allen and part of that is Daboll. 

 

-If we truly do have bottom 5 talent on the offensive side of the ball, then we have to ask very major questions of the FO too, because we brought in new starters at WR(2), OL(4), RB (2), TE(3).  

 

A big time WR would be awesome, I think every franchise would agree. But I am not sure that is THE biggest issue

The WRs they brought in are solid, but they have nothing behind them and nobody opposite Brown. 

 

The OL was def improved but still wouldn't consider a good unit. I'd say slightly above average.... and really not sure where they go from here. I'm guessing Spain goes elsewhere so they'll have a hole at Guard. They will have to hope Ford can play that position a lot better than he does at RT. 

 

The TEs are below average. Kroft was useless, Smith offers nothing as a reciever, and Knox while showed flashes of some good things drops way too many easy balls and has lapses in blocking. 

 

Singletary is a good player. Gore was useless down the stretch on the field. They need another good compliment to Singeltary. 

 

As you said, the offense has a collection of average to below average starters with a few good players mixed in. They need to significantly upgrade the WR, RB, and TE room(my guess is they do nothing at TE). I really think priority one should be a veteran stud WR either via FA or trade. 

 

I question their judgement of offense altogether. It's been atrocious since they've arrived and they certainly made a mistake with Dennison and it's questionable they made the right call with Daboll. 

Edited by ScottLaw
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Cole B. is both slow and light! Slot receiver skills are not about top speed or size but short area quickness. Beasley is obviously a good slot receiver by NFL standards and, IMHO, underutilized in the Bills' offense (I still can see him wide open for a TD on the last play of the Ravens' game).

 

Still, a pretty cool graph.

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It's tough when your QB is your fastest big guy on offense...

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Graph just reaffirms the need for more explosive playmakers around Allen  .  Bills dont have any 1st rounders on offense besides Josh

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10 hours ago, NI Bills Fan said:

I'm assuming this is speed tracked in a game situation rather than them coming to training and asking them to do a timed sprint, if so the top speed measurement depends a great deal on game context, i.e. has Dawson Knox been in a situation where he has caught the ball in space and has had the chance to open up and sprint for more yards?  I cant remember too many instances of this for Knox.  He was usually wrapped up quickly or fighting (very effectively at times) against tacklers for more yards.

 

Just my take.

 

if you click the link you can see it is game speed.  "@KingHenry_2 reached 21.27 MPH on a 68-yard RD run in Week 10 vs KC, +2.45 MPH over expectation based on his weight (247 lbs).   Since weight was not likely weighed in game that probably came from team roster.

 

image.thumb.png.d79f6f617c8252bc45a5ec616dc6289d.png

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I'm guessing that's Singletary right there at 203 and 19 top speed. He's a nice player, but the Bills need to add a back who places higher on such a graph.

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3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I'm guessing that's Singletary right there at 203 and 19 top speed. He's a nice player, but the Bills need to add a back who places higher on such a graph.

Agreed. Nice back. Certainly not a superstar. 
 

 

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