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MAJBobby

My Off-Season Primer: Position Group - DE

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***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  I was going to initially just do a DL thread because I think like the OL this unit has to play together to be effective, but then I thought it would be too long and hard to follow once people started commenting so for Defense I think I will go DE, DT, LBers, CB and Safety all as their own groups instead of DL, LB, DBs.  Hope you enjoy the read

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 19.645M Cap)

Jerry Hughes (UFA 2022)

Trent Murphy (UFA 2021) – Saves 7.2M against cap if Cut

Darryl Johnson (UFA 2023) – Saves 536KM against cap if Cut

Mike Love (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

Jonathan Woodard (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts

Shaq Lawson (26 yrs old) UFA) (2019 AVV – 2.570M) (Projected Market Value 7-9M AVV)

 

My Take:

First, I will address the expiring contract Shaq Lawson.  He has been trending positive for the last 1.5 years (both good and bad).  Reason it is good he has turned himself into a very productive DE for the Bills, the bad is I think it is going to have someone overpay in Market.  However, there are much better edge’s hitting the market which should keep his rate closer to his value.  One thing I have seen Lawson turn himself into, is our Best Run Defending DE that we have on the roster.  He also has improved his pass rush skills and has built a nice up and under counter to his Bull Rush.  That being said he is never going to be an elite sacker IMO, he doesn’t have the moves, counters or first step.  But can carve himself out a top end edge setter that can offer pressure from the position and would be the logical rotation with the base end positions (Trent Murphy).  By the numbers:

 

Shaq Lawson – 32 tackles, 21 solo, 13 TFL, 18 QB hits, 6.5 total sacks – All but tackles are career bests.  57% snaps.  At those numbers his value is similar at Henry Anderson at (3 yrs 25.2M, 8.4M GTD)

 

Now with Hughes, he is a little harder at this point to understand.  He did regress this year but them comes out he was playing with torn tendons in wrist. Yeah losing hand(s) if really going to affect an DE. At end of the day he isn’t going anywhere because there is zero savings in cap to do it, and the organizational depth at this position lacking it doesn’t make any sense to move on from one of our most productive rushers over the year.  What is concerning, again could be the INJ is the regression by the numbers. 

 

Jerry Hughes – 23 tackles (worst as a Bill), 14 solo (worst as a Bill), TFL 6 (worst as a Bill), 9 QB Hits (worst as a Bill), 4.5 sacks (second worse year as a Bill – worst was 4.0), 67% snaps

 

Trent Murphy, ahhh what to do with him, I have watched him make splash plays, then I have seen him set the edge against the run.  Then I also watched entire series where he looks completely lost. However, he did play a full 16 games.  Looking at his numbers he performed about where he always has before the knee issue.  So, with that and his cap hit of 8.9M, I think he is right in that spot where he should be valued money wise.  Like I said he can set the edge with the best of them and offers pass rush from the base end.  He is roughly Shaq Lawson just 3 years older.  Murphy by the numbers I am also going to post his best year 2016 as a comparison because I think people will be a little surprised by them.

 

Trent Murphy – 36 tackles, 24 solo, 9 TFL, 9 QB hits, 5.0 sacks, 67% Snaps

2016 numbers – 47 tackles, 29 solo, 10 TFL, 25 QB hits, 9 sacks (not as heavy of a rotation as we do here). 

 

What is interesting is he played at about his level he has always played at (minus the QB stuff).  But I also think that has a lot to do with who was on the other side of him as well.  There could be an argument Made that Hughes was the worst DE on the roster (out of the top 3).

 

Darryl Johnson looked like a rookie, he flashed as times, but was really overwhelmed and outmatched when he was on the field.  To be expected by a 7th round rookie.  However, he did flash on plays and makes me want to see how his development progresses, but I am not holding hope he will break out in 2020 to lock a spot down.

 

Like WR the organizational depth is BAD. Especially if they let Shaq Lawson walk.  I must look at the off-season if I was in charge that Hughes play is regression in order to get the key players and the organizational depth addressed.

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB)

Kerrigans name has been floated out there.

 

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Yannick Ngakoue

Matthew Judon

Jadeveon Clowney

Arik Armstead

 

Tier 2

Robert Quinn – downgraded due to age

Vic Beasley

Emmanuel Ogbah

Jason Pierre-Paul

Everson Griffen – Club Option

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Chase Young (Ohio State)

AJ Epenesa (Iowa)

Yetur Gross – Matos (Penn State)

Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

Anfernee Jennings (Alabama)

Julian Okwara (ND)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Terrell Lewis (Alabama)

Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

Bradlee Anae (Utah)

Alex Highsmith (Charoltte)

Darrell Taylor (Tenn)

Kenny Willekes (Michigan St)

K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU) – will likely climb, but this was as an edge initial ranking by me (he will be a tier 1 LBer)

Jabari Zuniga (Florida)

Khalid Kareem (ND)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Tevon Hill (Miami)

Oluwole Betiku (Illinois)

Alton Robinson (Syracuse)

Delontae Scott (SMU)

Jonathan Garvin (Miami)

Jessie Lemonier (Liberty)

DJ Wonnum (South Carolina)

Tipa Galeai (Utah State)

William Bradley-King (Arkansas St)

Kendall Coleman (Syracuse)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

Before I get into what I would do right now, is how I look at these are JUST position groups only.  I know I talked about Signing Hooper and Conklin etc in my other breakdowns and I know we won’t sign them all and put us right into a cap issue.  I will come up with a complete UFA thread of what I would do after the Franchise Tag deadline has passed.  These help me though figure out priorities and plans so after the Tag Deadline I can than look at what I would do in UFA.

 

This position group needs work with little young depth and the possible regression from Jerry Hughes. I do think this position will be highly targeted in UFA.  Now will it be a Tier 1 player or because of the rotation that we play (could it also be because we have no real stud at DE), a Tier 2 type player?  However, it sure looks when looking at the yearly snap counts, they don’t rotate the DEs as much as they do DTs.  It will be interesting to watch what Beane does here (similar to how it will be interesting to watch how they address WR). 

 

I think they way I would address it would be to sign one (a legit one) and then draft one, to start getting younger in the position and develop into the position to make future years re-signing decisions easier.  I think the reason people are thinking Shaq needs to be re-signed is he is the youngest player in the position (minus Johnson).

  

But in this group, I would sign Yannick Ngakoue, going to likely be a 5-year 93M with 50M gtd, 18.6M AVV the little bit cheaper option would be an Arik Armstead, will come in likely 13M AVV.  I then would go into the draft and take a Alex Highsmith in round 3 or 4th round to get that younger player in the depth as well.

 

This is a position group I would target in UFA for my immediate upgrade, the depth in UFA right now is very good, and to be honest I think this draft class is weak.  Plus, I am going into this off-season all about the Offense in the draft early to get some young weapons that can grow with Josh. 

Edited by MAJBobby
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4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  I was going to initially just do a DL thread because I think like the OL this unit has to play together to be effective, but then I thought it would be too long and hard to follow once people started commenting so for Defense I think I will go DE, DT, LBers, CB and Safety all as their own groups instead of DL, LB, DBs.  Hope you enjoy the read

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 19.645M Cap)

Jerry Hughes (UFA 2022)

Trent Murphy (UFA 2021) – Saves 7.2M against cap if Cut

Darryl Johnson (UFA 2023) – Saves 536KM against cap if Cut

Mike Love (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

Jonathan Woodard (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts

Shaq Lawson (26 yrs old) UFA) (2019 AVV – 2.570M) (Projected Market Value 7-9M AVV)

 

My Take:

First, I will address the expiring contract Shaq Lawson.  He has been trending positive for the last 1.5 years (both good and bad).  Reason it is good he has turned himself into a very productive DE for the Bills, the bad is I think it is going to have someone overpay in Market.  However, there are much better edge’s hitting the market which should keep his rate closer to his value.  One thing I have seen Lawson turn himself into, is our Best Run Defending DE that we have on the roster.  He also has improved his pass rush skills and has built a nice up and under counter to his Bull Rush.  That being said he is never going to be an elite sacker IMO, he doesn’t have the moves, counters or first step.  But can carve himself out a top end edge setter that can offer pressure from the position and would be the logical rotation with the base end positions (Trent Murphy).  By the numbers:

 

Shaq Lawson – 32 tackles, 21 solo, 13 TFL, 18 QB hits, 6.5 total sacks – All but tackles are career bests.  57% snaps.  At those numbers his value is similar at Henry Anderson at (3 yrs 25.2M, 8.4M GTD)

 

Now with Hughes, he is a little harder at this point to understand.  He did regress this year but them comes out he was playing with torn tendons in wrist. Yeah losing hand(s) if really going to affect an DE. At end of the day he isn’t going anywhere because there is zero savings in cap to do it, and the organizational depth at this position lacking it doesn’t make any sense to move on from one of our most productive rushers over the year.  What is concerning, again could be the INJ is the regression by the numbers. 

 

Jerry Hughes – 23 tackles (worst as a Bill), 14 solo (worst as a Bill), TFL 6 (worst as a Bill), 9 QB Hits (worst as a Bill), 4.5 sacks (second worse year as a Bill – worst was 4.0), 67% snaps

 

Trent Murphy, ahhh what to do with him, I have watched him make splash plays, then I have seen him set the edge against the run.  Then I also watched entire series where he looks completely lost. However, he did play a full 16 games.  Looking at his numbers he performed about where he always has before the knee issue.  So, with that and his cap hit of 8.9M, I think he is right in that spot where he should be valued money wise.  Like I said he can set the edge with the best of them and offers pass rush from the base end.  He is roughly Shaq Lawson just 3 years older.  Murphy by the numbers I am also going to post his best year 2016 as a comparison because I think people will be a little surprised by them.

 

Trent Murphy – 36 tackles, 24 solo, 9 TFL, 9 QB hits, 5.0 sacks, 67% Snaps

2016 numbers – 47 tackles, 29 solo, 10 TFL, 25 QB hits, 9 sacks (not as heavy of a rotation as we do here). 

 

What is interesting is he played at about his level he has always played at (minus the QB stuff).  But I also think that has a lot to do with who was on the other side of him as well.  There could be an argument Made that Hughes was the worst DE on the roster (out of the top 3).

 

Darryl Johnson looked like a rookie, he flashed as times, but was really overwhelmed and outmatched when he was on the field.  To be expected by a 7th round rookie.  However, he did flash on plays and makes me want to see how his development progresses, but I am not holding hope he will break out in 2020 to lock a spot down.

 

Like WR the organizational depth is BAD. Especially if they let Shaq Lawson walk.  I must look at the off-season if I was in charge that Hughes play is regression in order to get the key players and the organizational depth addressed.

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB)

Kerrigans name has been floated out there.

 

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Yannick Ngakoue

Matthew Judon

Jadeveon Clowney

Arik Armstead

 

Tier 2

Robert Quinn – downgraded due to age

Vic Beasley

Emmanuel Ogbah

Jason Pierre-Paul

Everson Griffen – Club Option

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Chase Young (Ohio State)

AJ Epenesa (Iowa)

Yetur Gross – Matos (Penn State)

Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

Anfernee Jennings (Alabama)

Julian Okwara (ND)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Terrell Lewis (Alabama)

Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

Bradlee Anae (Utah)

Alex Highsmith (Charoltte)

Darrell Taylor (Tenn)

Kenny Willekes (Michigan St)

K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU) – will likely climb, but this was as an edge initial ranking by me (he will be a tier 1 LBer)

Jabari Zuniga (Florida)

Khalid Kareem (ND)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Tevon Hill (Miami)

Oluwole Betiku (Illinois)

Alton Robinson (Syracuse)

Delontae Scott (SMU)

Jonathan Garvin (Miami)

Jessie Lemonier (Liberty)

DJ Wonnum (South Carolina)

Tipa Galeai (Utah State)

William Bradley-King (Arkansas St)

Kendall Coleman (Syracuse)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

Before I get into what I would do right now, is how I look at these are JUST position groups only.  I know I talked about Signing Hooper and Conklin etc in my other breakdowns and I know we won’t sign them all and put us right into a cap issue.  I will come up with a complete UFA thread of what I would do after the Franchise Tag deadline has passed.  These help me though figure out priorities and plans so after the Tag Deadline I can than look at what I would do in UFA.

 

This position group needs work with little young depth and the possible regression from Jerry Hughes. I do think this position will be highly targeted in UFA.  Now will it be a Tier 1 player or because of the rotation that we play (could it also be because we have no real stud at DE), a Tier 2 type player?  However, it sure looks when looking at the yearly snap counts, they don’t rotate the DEs as much as they do DTs.  It will be interesting to watch what Beane does here (similar to how it will be interesting to watch how they address WR). 

 

I think they way I would address it would be to sign one (a legit one) and then draft one, to start getting younger in the position and develop into the position to make future years re-signing decisions easier.  I think the reason people are thinking Shaq needs to be re-signed is he is the youngest player in the position (minus Johnson).

  

But in this group, I would sign Yannick Ngakoue, going to likely be a 5-year 93M with 50M gtd, 18.6M AVV the little bit cheaper option would be an Arik Armstead, will come in likely 13M AVV.  I then would go into the draft and take a Alex Highsmith in round 3 or 4th round to get that younger player in the depth as well.

 

This is a position group I would target in UFA for my immediate upgrade, the depth in UFA right now is very good, and to be honest I think this draft class is weak.  Plus, I am going into this off-season all about the Offense in the draft early to get some young weapons that can grow with Josh. 

  I don't think that Clowney fits here in terms of adapting to the team's philosophy.  I think that it is a reasonable bet there will be a guy in rounds 3-4 that the Bills will select.  WR, OL, or CB will get attention with our first two draft picks this year.  After yesterday's Texans-Chiefs game McBeane will be more likely to give some priority to the offense in terms of draft with the exception a CB as an insurance policy in case White's pending contract turns bat crap crazy.

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If I am Beane I would do the following:

1. Cut Murphy

2. Resign Shaq with Murphy's savings - effectively gives you the same player or slight upgrade who is 3 years younger

3. Sign Emmanuel Ogbah (another above average end who provides youth)

4. Draft K’Lavon Chaisson (absolute freak), AJ Epenesa, or Yetur Gross in the first round

 

Then you have ends of Shaq, Ogbah, Hughes, and Rookie 1st rounder. Love/Johnson rotate in

 

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I’d like to see us cut Murphy and do something like:

 

Re-sign Shaq Lawson 3yrs $24M

Sign Jordan Jenkins 4yrs $40M

Draft Kenny Willekes, DE, Michigan State

 

Think if you do that we’ll have a solid pass rush. You let Hughes walk after this year and hope Willekes is ready to start in 2021.

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Can't argue with much of this and it is true we are very poor talent wise at WR and DE - both need to be addressed urgently this offseason

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35 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Can't argue with much of this and it is true we are very poor talent wise at WR and DE - both need to be addressed urgently this offseason

I don’t think it’s coincidence that these two positions are seen as very deep in this draft class. Also there will be more than a few Vets with star ability available at both those positions.

I would love love love to see Shaq replace Murphy’s contract. Paying Shaq around $9 mil a year would be the right value. Drafting a guy early and/or Signing one of the tier one FA would be huge as well. Structure the FA deal so the cap hit real starts after Hughes has been cut after next season. Sorry, it’s just business. I love Jerry, but he probably won’t be worth his deal in 2021. 

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Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I don’t think it’s coincidence that these two positions are seen as very deep in this draft class. Also there will be more than a few Vets with star ability available at both those positions.

I would love love love to see Shaq replace Murphy’s contract. Paying Shaq around $9 mil a year would be the right value. Drafting a guy early and/or Signing one of the tier one FA would be huge as well. Structure the FA deal so the cap hit real starts after Hughes has been cut after next season. Sorry, it’s just business. I love Jerry, but he probably won’t be worth his deal in 2021. 

 

I agree I cant argue the numbers and I see regression there this was his WORST year as a Bill, he can talk INJ all he wants, I see regression not injury

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1 hour ago, JP's Voice said:

If I am Beane I would do the following:

1. Cut Murphy

2. Resign Shaq with Murphy's savings - effectively gives you the same player or slight upgrade who is 3 years younger

3. Sign Emmanuel Ogbah (another above average end who provides youth)

4. Draft K’Lavon Chaisson (absolute freak), AJ Epenesa, or Yetur Gross in the first round

 

Then you have ends of Shaq, Ogbah, Hughes, and Rookie 1st rounder. Love/Johnson rotate in

 

Can’t argue with this. Seems like a no brainer to tell Shaq he’s going to be getting Trent’s money next season. Huge pay raise for him and zero drop off for the team. 

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I'd be down with letting Murhpy and Shaq walk

 

Sign Yannick 

 

Draft Bradlee Anae in the second or 3rd. 

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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

I agree I cant argue the numbers and I see regression there this was his WORST year as a Bill, he can talk INJ all he wants, I see regression not injury

This was his worst year, as he was hurt all season and then gets to the playoffs and has 3 sacks in one game.

 

yall writing jerry off are nuts.  He might not be “worth his contract” in 2 years but he’s worth it next year.  Talk about 2021 in 2021 imo.  He’s a good player and isn’t getting overpaid in 2020

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8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

This was his worst year, as he was hurt all season and then gets to the playoffs and has 3 sacks in one game.

 

yall writing jerry off are nuts.  He might not be “worth his contract” in 2 years but he’s worth it next year.  Talk about 2021 in 2021 imo.  He’s a good player and isn’t getting overpaid in 2020

 

So hurt all year and then gets 3 sacks?  Interesting, so how do you know he was hurt all year?  Fact is his numbers are the WORST he has been as a Bill and no where I think my my writeup did I say walk away from him this year, I think I said Plan for what looks like is his regression

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I like Ogbah and Everson Griffin if he frees up from Minnesota. If I picked tier one I’d want Armstead. I still want Shaq back if he finds a cold market he should definitely want to stay here. I like him on Hughes side better rushing the left tackle. 
I’m not of fan for Yannick and clowney but if we HAD to take one of them I’d pick Yannick. Clowney is just a walking disaster to me. Always had the ability to dominate and be the best ever, just never healthy and it either affects his play or he just doesn’t give effort too much. Hard to say cause he’s always dinged up. I think there’s upside for Yannick but not clowney. Just my opinion. 
I look forward to seeing what new blood they bring in. Shaq signing back or not I still expect a free agent so they’re not forced in the draft taking an end they may not like as much. 

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17 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

So hurt all year and then gets 3 sacks?  Interesting, so how do you know he was hurt all year?  Fact is his numbers are the WORST he has been as a Bill and no where I think my my writeup did I say walk away from him this year, I think I said Plan for what looks like is his regression

Because he said he was.  I’ll take his word for it.  Why lie and get us in trouble if he wasn’t?  
 

you see regression because he wasn’t listed on the injury report all year.  If he was on the injury report all year, you would’ve seen injury.  
 

Jerry wasn’t as good as last season, when, iirc, he led the nfl in pressures or something of that nature.  I didn’t expect him to be that good, but I did expect better from him this season.  Like you, I didn’t know he was hurt until he spilled the beans after the game.  After the playoff game where he sacked DeShaun Watson 3 times.

 

we’ll se how far he regresses next season, but I think Jerry rides out his contract and will be an important piece of the 2021 team

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48 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Because he said he was.  I’ll take his word for it.  Why lie and get us in trouble if he wasn’t?  
 

you see regression because he wasn’t listed on the injury report all year.  If he was on the injury report all year, you would’ve seen injury.  
 

Jerry wasn’t as good as last season, when, iirc, he led the nfl in pressures or something of that nature.  I didn’t expect him to be that good, but I did expect better from him this season.  Like you, I didn’t know he was hurt until he spilled the beans after the game.  After the playoff game where he sacked DeShaun Watson 3 times.

 

we’ll se how far he regresses next season, but I think Jerry rides out his contract and will be an important piece of the 2021 team


and he likely will. I am currently not looking to replace Hughes I am looking for better than Murphy and younger than Hughes to replace him when needs too. And that will be coming sooner than later based on his age alone. 

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When is Murphy's contract guaranteed for 2021? Because his cap hit is so low I doubt we cut him right away.

 

Beene stated last season that they look for players 27 and younger when throwing long term deals out there so I'm thinking that trend continues. I think he also stated last year that they do not want to put themselves in a cap situation ever again, which leads me to believe that all (or most) top tier FA will not be a priority for us this offseason.

 

My guess is we will go into FA gauging value from Lawson, but will explore other DE FA as well. I feel Ogbah will be high on our list because of his draft measurables (raw potential) and age. He lacked production throughout his career, but McDermott has a way with taping into underdeveloped potential. 

 

As far as the draft I feel the pass rush will be their #1 priority. With Murphy, Hughes, Ogbah/Lawson, Johnson, and Love on the roster they will be prepared to trade up in the draft to as high as 11 for a pass rusher. Now I haven't looked at the value chart as of yet, but I think the Bills can package a 2021 pick (2nd round) with late 2020 picks (5th - 7th round), and their 2020 1st to move up to 11 (if need be) to snag a blue chip prospect. Not sure who will fall or rise high enough to be coveted at that spot, but I feel the Bills have what it takes to make a move that high and keep their 2020 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

This is a separate matter, but the 2nd and 3rd round picks will be used to snag a WR with the 2nd, and BPA in the 3rd (G, CB, or LB).

Edited by ROONDOGG55

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Good read as always.

 

As for Armstead, since he's been mentioned quite often - I know a guy who is 49ers fan and he said that this year Armstead > Buckner, so he is pretty sure they won't let him go. He says they are probably not able to keep them both, so they might sign and trade Buckner. He said its not just his opinion but that it is common opinion on their forums.

 

I have no idea if it makes sense just selling as I bought it.

Edited by No_Matter_What

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40 minutes ago, ROONDOGG55 said:

When is Murphy's contract guaranteed for 2021? Because his cap hit is so low I doubt we cut him right away.

 

Beene stated last season that they look for players 27 and younger when throwing long term deals out there so I'm thinking that trend continues. I think he also stated last year that they do not want to put themselves in a cap situation ever again, which leads me to believe that all (or most) top tier FA will not be a priority for us this offseason.

 

My guess is we will go into FA gauging value from Lawson, but will explore other DE FA as well. I feel Ogbah will be high on our list because of his draft measurables (raw potential) and age. He lacked production throughout his career, but McDermott has a way with taping into underdeveloped potential. 

 

As far as the draft I feel the pass rush will be their #1 priority. With Murphy, Hughes, Ogbah/Lawson, Johnson, and Love on the roster they will be prepared to trade up in the draft to as high as 11 for a pass rusher. Now I haven't looked at the value chart as of yet, but I think the Bills can package a 2021 pick (2nd round) with late 2020 picks (5th - 7th round), and their 2020 1st to move up to 11 (if need be) to snag a blue chip prospect. Not sure who will fall or rise high enough to be coveted at that spot, but I feel the Bills have what it takes to make a move that high and keep their 2020 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

This is a separate matter, but the 2nd and 3rd round picks will be used to snag a WR with the 2nd, and BPA in the 3rd (G, CB, or LB).

His gtd money is paid out.  They could cut him at any time and they are only going to see the pro-rated 1.75M bonus as dead money.  

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6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Good read as always.

 

As for Armstead, since he's been mentioned quite often - I know a guy who is 49ers fan a he said that this year Armstead > Buckner, so he is pretty sure they won't let him go. He says they are probably not able to keep them both, so they might sign and trade Buckers. He said its not just his opinion but that it is common opinion on their forums.

 

I have no idea if it makes sense just selling as I bought it.

I am not sure how they can come back and drop another 13M AAV on a DE when they just gave Ford yrs 85.5M and a AAV of 17.1M

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14 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

His gtd money is paid out.  They could cut him at any time and they are only going to see the pro-rated 1.75M bonus as dead money.  

 

Thank you sir. My guess is the Bills keep him on the roster until they can find a replacement. He will most likely be cut following the final preseason game if they feel comfortable with his successor(s).

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2 minutes ago, ROONDOGG55 said:

 

Thank you sir. My guess is the Bills keep him on the roster until they can find a replacement. He will most likely be cut following the final preseason game if they feel comfortable with his successor(s).

I think he showed he is healthy. No reason to cut him. DEs have value. They can flip him at camp or after draft for picks or player. 
 

I know many here don’t think so but he can bring you a 4th in a trade IMO. 

Edited by MAJBobby

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If McBeane are fine with Clowney personality-wise, he'd be my choice if I could have any of them. Would be very happy to get any of those tier 1 guys though. If we can't get any of them, I think I'd probably turn my attention to Adrian Clayborn and then likely use our 1st round pick on one of the edge prospects to develop behind him.

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Just now, DCOrange said:

If McBeane are fine with Clowney personality-wise, he'd be my choice if I could have any of them. Would be very happy to get any of those tier 1 guys though. If we can't get any of them, I think I'd probably turn my attention to Adrian Clayborn and then likely use our 1st round pick on one of the edge prospects to develop behind him.


I wonder how much the core surgery would depress his value?  

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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:


I wonder how much the core surgery would depress his value?  

I think someone will probably still give him a huge contract but we'll see.

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3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think someone will probably still give him a huge contract but we'll see.

Someone likely will. There are only a couple top end DEs and that group will get thinner with re-signings and Tags 

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22 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  I was going to initially just do a DL thread because I think like the OL this unit has to play together to be effective, but then I thought it would be too long and hard to follow once people started commenting so for Defense I think I will go DE, DT, LBers, CB and Safety all as their own groups instead of DL, LB, DBs.  Hope you enjoy the read

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 19.645M Cap)

Jerry Hughes (UFA 2022)

Trent Murphy (UFA 2021) – Saves 7.2M against cap if Cut

Darryl Johnson (UFA 2023) – Saves 536KM against cap if Cut

Mike Love (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

Jonathan Woodard (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts

Shaq Lawson (26 yrs old) UFA) (2019 AVV – 2.570M) (Projected Market Value 7-9M AVV)

 

My Take:

First, I will address the expiring contract Shaq Lawson.  He has been trending positive for the last 1.5 years (both good and bad).  Reason it is good he has turned himself into a very productive DE for the Bills, the bad is I think it is going to have someone overpay in Market.  However, there are much better edge’s hitting the market which should keep his rate closer to his value.  One thing I have seen Lawson turn himself into, is our Best Run Defending DE that we have on the roster.  He also has improved his pass rush skills and has built a nice up and under counter to his Bull Rush.  That being said he is never going to be an elite sacker IMO, he doesn’t have the moves, counters or first step.  But can carve himself out a top end edge setter that can offer pressure from the position and would be the logical rotation with the base end positions (Trent Murphy).  By the numbers:

 

Shaq Lawson – 32 tackles, 21 solo, 13 TFL, 18 QB hits, 6.5 total sacks – All but tackles are career bests.  57% snaps.  At those numbers his value is similar at Henry Anderson at (3 yrs 25.2M, 8.4M GTD)

 

Now with Hughes, he is a little harder at this point to understand.  He did regress this year but them comes out he was playing with torn tendons in wrist. Yeah losing hand(s) if really going to affect an DE. At end of the day he isn’t going anywhere because there is zero savings in cap to do it, and the organizational depth at this position lacking it doesn’t make any sense to move on from one of our most productive rushers over the year.  What is concerning, again could be the INJ is the regression by the numbers. 

 

Jerry Hughes – 23 tackles (worst as a Bill), 14 solo (worst as a Bill), TFL 6 (worst as a Bill), 9 QB Hits (worst as a Bill), 4.5 sacks (second worse year as a Bill – worst was 4.0), 67% snaps

 

Trent Murphy, ahhh what to do with him, I have watched him make splash plays, then I have seen him set the edge against the run.  Then I also watched entire series where he looks completely lost. However, he did play a full 16 games.  Looking at his numbers he performed about where he always has before the knee issue.  So, with that and his cap hit of 8.9M, I think he is right in that spot where he should be valued money wise.  Like I said he can set the edge with the best of them and offers pass rush from the base end.  He is roughly Shaq Lawson just 3 years older.  Murphy by the numbers I am also going to post his best year 2016 as a comparison because I think people will be a little surprised by them.

 

Trent Murphy – 36 tackles, 24 solo, 9 TFL, 9 QB hits, 5.0 sacks, 67% Snaps

2016 numbers – 47 tackles, 29 solo, 10 TFL, 25 QB hits, 9 sacks (not as heavy of a rotation as we do here). 

 

What is interesting is he played at about his level he has always played at (minus the QB stuff).  But I also think that has a lot to do with who was on the other side of him as well.  There could be an argument Made that Hughes was the worst DE on the roster (out of the top 3).

 

Darryl Johnson looked like a rookie, he flashed as times, but was really overwhelmed and outmatched when he was on the field.  To be expected by a 7th round rookie.  However, he did flash on plays and makes me want to see how his development progresses, but I am not holding hope he will break out in 2020 to lock a spot down.

 

Like WR the organizational depth is BAD. Especially if they let Shaq Lawson walk.  I must look at the off-season if I was in charge that Hughes play is regression in order to get the key players and the organizational depth addressed.

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB)

Kerrigans name has been floated out there.

 

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Yannick Ngakoue

Matthew Judon

Jadeveon Clowney

Arik Armstead

 

Tier 2

Robert Quinn – downgraded due to age

Vic Beasley

Emmanuel Ogbah

Jason Pierre-Paul

Everson Griffen – Club Option

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Chase Young (Ohio State)

AJ Epenesa (Iowa)

Yetur Gross – Matos (Penn State)

Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

Anfernee Jennings (Alabama)

Julian Okwara (ND)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Terrell Lewis (Alabama)

Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

Bradlee Anae (Utah)

Alex Highsmith (Charoltte)

Darrell Taylor (Tenn)

Kenny Willekes (Michigan St)

K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU) – will likely climb, but this was as an edge initial ranking by me (he will be a tier 1 LBer)

Jabari Zuniga (Florida)

Khalid Kareem (ND)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Tevon Hill (Miami)

Oluwole Betiku (Illinois)

Alton Robinson (Syracuse)

Delontae Scott (SMU)

Jonathan Garvin (Miami)

Jessie Lemonier (Liberty)

DJ Wonnum (South Carolina)

Tipa Galeai (Utah State)

William Bradley-King (Arkansas St)

Kendall Coleman (Syracuse)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

Before I get into what I would do right now, is how I look at these are JUST position groups only.  I know I talked about Signing Hooper and Conklin etc in my other breakdowns and I know we won’t sign them all and put us right into a cap issue.  I will come up with a complete UFA thread of what I would do after the Franchise Tag deadline has passed.  These help me though figure out priorities and plans so after the Tag Deadline I can than look at what I would do in UFA.

 

This position group needs work with little young depth and the possible regression from Jerry Hughes. I do think this position will be highly targeted in UFA.  Now will it be a Tier 1 player or because of the rotation that we play (could it also be because we have no real stud at DE), a Tier 2 type player?  However, it sure looks when looking at the yearly snap counts, they don’t rotate the DEs as much as they do DTs.  It will be interesting to watch what Beane does here (similar to how it will be interesting to watch how they address WR). 

 

I think they way I would address it would be to sign one (a legit one) and then draft one, to start getting younger in the position and develop into the position to make future years re-signing decisions easier.  I think the reason people are thinking Shaq needs to be re-signed is he is the youngest player in the position (minus Johnson).

  

But in this group, I would sign Yannick Ngakoue, going to likely be a 5-year 93M with 50M gtd, 18.6M AVV the little bit cheaper option would be an Arik Armstead, will come in likely 13M AVV.  I then would go into the draft and take a Alex Highsmith in round 3 or 4th round to get that younger player in the depth as well.

 

This is a position group I would target in UFA for my immediate upgrade, the depth in UFA right now is very good, and to be honest I think this draft class is weak.  Plus, I am going into this off-season all about the Offense in the draft early to get some young weapons that can grow with Josh. 

 

I know he's in that same "old" view, but what about addison?  Obviously there is a carolina connection, but i do think he presents an upgrade over most of the guys in house.  Averaged about 10 sacks over the last 3 years.  He's 32, but if he can still get after the QB for a couple more years in a rotational role I'd be down.  

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