My Off-Season Primer: Position Group - DE

[DCOrange]

If McBeane are fine with Clowney personality-wise, he'd be my choice if I could have any of them. Would be very happy to get any of those tier 1 guys though. If we can't get any of them, I think I'd probably turn my attention to Adrian Clayborn and then likely use our 1st round pick on one of the edge prospects to develop behind him.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, DCOrange said:

If McBeane are fine with Clowney personality-wise, he'd be my choice if I could have any of them. Would be very happy to get any of those tier 1 guys though. If we can't get any of them, I think I'd probably turn my attention to Adrian Clayborn and then likely use our 1st round pick on one of the edge prospects to develop behind him.

I wonder how much the core surgery would depress his value?  

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

I wonder how much the core surgery would depress his value?  

I think someone will probably still give him a huge contract but we'll see.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think someone will probably still give him a huge contract but we'll see.

Someone likely will. There are only a couple top end DEs and that group will get thinner with re-signings and Tags 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  I was going to initially just do a DL thread because I think like the OL this unit has to play together to be effective, but then I thought it would be too long and hard to follow once people started commenting so for Defense I think I will go DE, DT, LBers, CB and Safety all as their own groups instead of DL, LB, DBs.  Hope you enjoy the read

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Wide Receivers

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 19.645M Cap)

Jerry Hughes (UFA 2022)

Trent Murphy (UFA 2021) – Saves 7.2M against cap if Cut

Darryl Johnson (UFA 2023) – Saves 536KM against cap if Cut

Mike Love (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

Jonathan Woodard (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts

Shaq Lawson (26 yrs old) UFA) (2019 AVV – 2.570M) (Projected Market Value 7-9M AVV)

 

My Take:

First, I will address the expiring contract Shaq Lawson.  He has been trending positive for the last 1.5 years (both good and bad).  Reason it is good he has turned himself into a very productive DE for the Bills, the bad is I think it is going to have someone overpay in Market.  However, there are much better edge’s hitting the market which should keep his rate closer to his value.  One thing I have seen Lawson turn himself into, is our Best Run Defending DE that we have on the roster.  He also has improved his pass rush skills and has built a nice up and under counter to his Bull Rush.  That being said he is never going to be an elite sacker IMO, he doesn’t have the moves, counters or first step.  But can carve himself out a top end edge setter that can offer pressure from the position and would be the logical rotation with the base end positions (Trent Murphy).  By the numbers:

 

Shaq Lawson – 32 tackles, 21 solo, 13 TFL, 18 QB hits, 6.5 total sacks – All but tackles are career bests.  57% snaps.  At those numbers his value is similar at Henry Anderson at (3 yrs 25.2M, 8.4M GTD)

 

Now with Hughes, he is a little harder at this point to understand.  He did regress this year but them comes out he was playing with torn tendons in wrist. Yeah losing hand(s) if really going to affect an DE. At end of the day he isn’t going anywhere because there is zero savings in cap to do it, and the organizational depth at this position lacking it doesn’t make any sense to move on from one of our most productive rushers over the year.  What is concerning, again could be the INJ is the regression by the numbers. 

 

Jerry Hughes – 23 tackles (worst as a Bill), 14 solo (worst as a Bill), TFL 6 (worst as a Bill), 9 QB Hits (worst as a Bill), 4.5 sacks (second worse year as a Bill – worst was 4.0), 67% snaps

 

Trent Murphy, ahhh what to do with him, I have watched him make splash plays, then I have seen him set the edge against the run.  Then I also watched entire series where he looks completely lost. However, he did play a full 16 games.  Looking at his numbers he performed about where he always has before the knee issue.  So, with that and his cap hit of 8.9M, I think he is right in that spot where he should be valued money wise.  Like I said he can set the edge with the best of them and offers pass rush from the base end.  He is roughly Shaq Lawson just 3 years older.  Murphy by the numbers I am also going to post his best year 2016 as a comparison because I think people will be a little surprised by them.

 

Trent Murphy – 36 tackles, 24 solo, 9 TFL, 9 QB hits, 5.0 sacks, 67% Snaps

2016 numbers – 47 tackles, 29 solo, 10 TFL, 25 QB hits, 9 sacks (not as heavy of a rotation as we do here). 

 

What is interesting is he played at about his level he has always played at (minus the QB stuff).  But I also think that has a lot to do with who was on the other side of him as well.  There could be an argument Made that Hughes was the worst DE on the roster (out of the top 3).

 

Darryl Johnson looked like a rookie, he flashed as times, but was really overwhelmed and outmatched when he was on the field.  To be expected by a 7th round rookie.  However, he did flash on plays and makes me want to see how his development progresses, but I am not holding hope he will break out in 2020 to lock a spot down.

 

Like WR the organizational depth is BAD. Especially if they let Shaq Lawson walk.  I must look at the off-season if I was in charge that Hughes play is regression in order to get the key players and the organizational depth addressed.

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB)

Kerrigans name has been floated out there.

 

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Yannick Ngakoue

Matthew Judon

Jadeveon Clowney

Arik Armstead

 

Tier 2

Robert Quinn – downgraded due to age

Vic Beasley

Emmanuel Ogbah

Jason Pierre-Paul

Everson Griffen – Club Option

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Chase Young (Ohio State)

AJ Epenesa (Iowa)

Yetur Gross – Matos (Penn State)

Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

Anfernee Jennings (Alabama)

Julian Okwara (ND)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Terrell Lewis (Alabama)

Jonathan Greenard (Florida)

Bradlee Anae (Utah)

Alex Highsmith (Charoltte)

Darrell Taylor (Tenn)

Kenny Willekes (Michigan St)

K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU) – will likely climb, but this was as an edge initial ranking by me (he will be a tier 1 LBer)

Jabari Zuniga (Florida)

Khalid Kareem (ND)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Tevon Hill (Miami)

Oluwole Betiku (Illinois)

Alton Robinson (Syracuse)

Delontae Scott (SMU)

Jonathan Garvin (Miami)

Jessie Lemonier (Liberty)

DJ Wonnum (South Carolina)

Tipa Galeai (Utah State)

William Bradley-King (Arkansas St)

Kendall Coleman (Syracuse)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

Before I get into what I would do right now, is how I look at these are JUST position groups only.  I know I talked about Signing Hooper and Conklin etc in my other breakdowns and I know we won’t sign them all and put us right into a cap issue.  I will come up with a complete UFA thread of what I would do after the Franchise Tag deadline has passed.  These help me though figure out priorities and plans so after the Tag Deadline I can than look at what I would do in UFA.

 

This position group needs work with little young depth and the possible regression from Jerry Hughes. I do think this position will be highly targeted in UFA.  Now will it be a Tier 1 player or because of the rotation that we play (could it also be because we have no real stud at DE), a Tier 2 type player?  However, it sure looks when looking at the yearly snap counts, they don’t rotate the DEs as much as they do DTs.  It will be interesting to watch what Beane does here (similar to how it will be interesting to watch how they address WR). 

 

I think they way I would address it would be to sign one (a legit one) and then draft one, to start getting younger in the position and develop into the position to make future years re-signing decisions easier.  I think the reason people are thinking Shaq needs to be re-signed is he is the youngest player in the position (minus Johnson).

  

But in this group, I would sign Yannick Ngakoue, going to likely be a 5-year 93M with 50M gtd, 18.6M AVV the little bit cheaper option would be an Arik Armstead, will come in likely 13M AVV.  I then would go into the draft and take a Alex Highsmith in round 3 or 4th round to get that younger player in the depth as well.

 

This is a position group I would target in UFA for my immediate upgrade, the depth in UFA right now is very good, and to be honest I think this draft class is weak.  Plus, I am going into this off-season all about the Offense in the draft early to get some young weapons that can grow with Josh. 

 

I know he's in that same "old" view, but what about addison?  Obviously there is a carolina connection, but i do think he presents an upgrade over most of the guys in house.  Averaged about 10 sacks over the last 3 years.  He's 32, but if he can still get after the QB for a couple more years in a rotational role I'd be down.  

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I know he's in that same "old" view, but what about addison?  Obviously there is a carolina connection, but i do think he presents an upgrade over most of the guys in house.  Averaged about 10 sacks over the last 3 years.  He's 32, but if he can still get after the QB for a couple more years in a rotational role I'd be down.  

I think Addison is a great add for a two year option while we develop guys to replace him and Hughes behind them. I especially like that Addison has a history with McDermott/our new DL coach and toss in well thoughts of Brandon Beane. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

I think Addison is a great add for a two year option while we develop guys to replace him and Hughes behind them. I especially like that Addison has a history with McDermott/our new DL coach and toss in well thoughts of Brandon Beane. 

 

I do think pass rushers tend to age fairly well?  There are examples of guys playing well into their 30s.  Especially as a rotational pass rusher.

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I do think pass rushers tend to age fairly well?  There are examples of guys playing well into their 30s.  Especially as a rotational pass rusher.

Yeah Jim Jeffcoat played a rotational role here when he was 34-36. Addison might not reach 10 but think 5-8 sacks are a realistic goal. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by The Jokeman

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

Yeah Jim Jeffcoat played a rotational role here when he was 34-36. Addison might not reach 10 but think 5-8 sacks are a realistic goal. 

 

He played about 66% of snaps this year for them (inlcuding missing an entire game).  Murphy and Hughes both played about 63-65% of snaps with lawson at about 45%.  So his snaps probably decrease in a role here.

[The Jokeman]

Just now, dneveu said:

 

He played about 66% of snaps this year for them (inlcuding missing an entire game).  Murphy and Hughes both played about 63-65% of snaps with lawson at about 45%.  So his snaps probably decrease in a role here.

Right so if he replaces Shaq (which he does in my mind) a little less playing time should mean a slightly reduced number of sacks. 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Right so if he replaces Shaq (which he does in my mind) a little less playing time should mean a slightly reduced number of sacks. 

I get the premise and it would be intriguing if Shaq leaves. I think though I would rather get younger at DE not older. 
 

now if this is a second DE signed after signing a younger stud I would be more OK with it. 

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

I get the premise and it would be intriguing if Shaq leaves. I think though I would rather get younger at DE not older. 
 

now if this is a second DE signed after signing a younger stud I would be more OK with it. 

I'm also advocating we draft Chad Weaver in Round 1 even if we add Addison as an UFA. 

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I'm also advocating we draft Chad Weaver in Round 1 even if we add Addison as an UFA. 

yeah can’t get on that. For me Round 1 is WR. But open to a second round guy or later. 
 

now I do have Curtis Weaver as a mid to late 2nd round grade. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by MAJBobby

[The Jokeman]

11 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

yeah can’t get on that. For me Round 1 is WR. But open to a second round guy or later. 
 

now I do have Curtis Weaver as a mid to late 2nd round grade. 

I think he's a mid to late round 1st. Yet as the draft gets closer that might change.

Edited January 14, 2020 by The Jokeman

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I think he's a mid to late round 1st. Yet as the draft gets closer that might. 

I also really like Kenny Willekes in 3rd.

 

i wouldn’t over-draft a DE instead I would go with a Willekes in the third put him in the rotation. 
 

the easiest solution though would be to get one of the stud young UFAs (you know they can already play at this level). There is a ton of youth on this defense already (yes we are older on the DL) but when there are 25 year olds hitting the market that can play I would rather go there. 
 

but I don’t disagree with your thinking. Just not the way I would look at this specific position is all. 

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

I also really like Kenny Willekes in 3rd.

 

i wouldn’t over-draft a DE instead I would go with a Willekes in the third put him in the rotation. 
 

the easiest solution though would be to get one of the stud young UFAs (you know they can already play at this level). There is a ton of youth on this defense already (yes we are older on the DL) but when there are 25 year olds hitting the market that can play I would rather go there. 
 

but I don’t disagree with your thinking. Just not the way I would look at this specific position is all. 

Jerry Hughes is likely on his last contract and I don't see his replacement on the roster, that's why think drafting someone wiser than spending money on a BIG ticket UFA. As I'd rather use that money for Josh Allen, Edmunds, White etc. 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

Jerry Hughes is likely on his last contract and I don't see his replacement on the roster, that's why think drafting someone wiser than spending money on a BIG ticket UFA. As I'd rather use that money for Josh Allen, Edmunds, White etc. 

 

A 17M AAV 25 year old DE isn’t going to stop you from signing Josh Allen, Edmunds or White in the future. The reality is the Bills will be needing 3 DEs in the near future. 
 

so signing a Yannick allows you to check one of them off for the long term future. Signing an 30+ DE doesn’t address that fact in the future. So by signing an Addison and Drafting a Weaver is still treading water at future organizational depth. 
 

signing a Yannick and Drafting a Willekes leaves you with only 1 long term DE needed in future but that one could also be you older 1 or 2 year vets in future. 
 

if Willekes performs he gets Yannicks contract as you cycle off him as he gets older. 
 

you can always support a highly paid DE on roster and still do everything else. 

[Reed83HOF]

8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Jerry Hughes is likely on his last contract and I don't see his replacement on the roster, that's why think drafting someone wiser than spending money on a BIG ticket UFA. As I'd rather use that money for Josh Allen, Edmunds, White etc. 

We have $198 million next year and $394 million the following year in cap space due to a ton of expiring contracts....can't say we don't have the $$$$

 

Also over drafting a position of need is the worst thing you can do - if you want an example - look at the past 20 years of the Bills offseason approaches to the draft...

[The Jokeman]

8 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

We have $198 million next year and $394 million the following year in cap space due to a ton of expiring contracts....can't say we don't have the $$$$

 

Also over drafting a position of need is the worst thing you can do - if you want an example - look at the past 20 years of the Bills offseason approaches to the draft...

Astrobot lists Weaver as a guy that should be drafting in the twenties, to me not an over draft. It helps he also fill a need. 

12 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

A 17M AAV 25 year old DE isn’t going to stop you from signing Josh Allen, Edmunds or White in the future. The reality is the Bills will be needing 3 DEs in the near future. 
 

so signing a Yannick allows you to check one of them off for the long term future. Signing an 30+ DE doesn’t address that fact in the future. So by signing an Addison and Drafting a Weaver is still treading water at future organizational depth. 
 

signing a Yannick and Drafting a Willekes leaves you with only 1 long term DE needed in future but that one could also be you older 1 or 2 year vets in future. 
 

if Willekes performs he gets Yannicks contract as you cycle off him as he gets older. 
 

you can always support a highly paid DE on roster and still do everything else. 

Valid I guess I'm concerned with Yannick's size but can't deny his production thus far. 

[MAJBobby]

27 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Astrobot lists Weaver as a guy that should be drafting in the twenties, to me not an over draft. It helps he also fill a need. 

Valid I guess I'm concerned with Yannick's size but can't deny his production thus far. 

what’s his grade on him. Because a mock is different than grading.