Quality Wins - A Troubling Observation

[Seven-N-Nine]

On 10/28/2019 at 11:27 AM, Do The Reich Thing said:

Are the Bills really just beating teams that they should and are they not that good?

 

Yes, this is why I've never liked McDermott.  He also has a lot of blowout losses.  He's not a good coach, he's coaching like it's the 1980's.  Not only are they only beating bad teams, they have a hard time doing that, needing 4th qtr comebacks etc.

 

IMO they will lose this Redskins game and the slump is officially on, they will finish ~7-9.

[prissythecat]

1 minute ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

 

Yes, this is why I've never liked McDermott.  He also has a lot of blowout losses.  He's not a good coach, he's coaching like it's the 1980's.  Not only are they only beating bad teams, they have a hard time doing that, needing 4th qtr comebacks etc.

 

IMO they will lose this Redskins game and the slump is officially on, they will finish ~7-9.

 

I love your optimism.

[Do The Reich Thing]

4 minutes ago, Seven-N-Nine said:

 

Yes, this is why I've never liked McDermott.  He also has a lot of blowout losses.  He's not a good coach, he's coaching like it's the 1980's.  Not only are they only beating bad teams, they have a hard time doing that, needing 4th qtr comebacks etc.

 

IMO they will lose this Redskins game and the slump is officially on, they will finish ~7-9.

 

I don't think we're 7-9... I actually think we'll go 10-6 or 11-5 but I'm not super high on McD in his coaching style either

[GunnerBill]

57 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

It’s always next year for some people. They are afraid to set expectations high out of fear of being disappointed. 
 

Allen and the offense were supposed to take a major step forward this year but that’s not happening and now the narrative is we still don’t have talent on offense and next year is the year it happens. I agree with you that anything less than 10 or 11 wins this year would be a disappointment. Our schedule next year is no joke so if you’re expecting a breakout year then it’s only going to be harder.

 

Agreed I know it is dangerous to look too far ahead schedule wise but next year we play the Chiefs, the Chargers (who are talented under achievers at the moment), the Raiders who are headed the right way, and the NFC West trio of Seahawks, 49ers and Rams all of whom are playoff talent level teams and the Cardinals who have started to show something. Plus likely a second place schedule that includes one of Indy or Houston and one of Cleveland or Pittsburgh. If Brady retires maybe New England takes a step back but whereas this year I could get us to 8 wins without even picking us to beat anyone I properly considered "good" on that schedule next year 8-8 would be a decent return.  

[Seven-N-Nine]

56 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

I love your optimism.

 

The way this team has played this season, I'm not sure I am supposed to be optimistic? This is why just stating "5-1" doesn't work, that's ignoring the quality of opponents beaten, like putting your fingers in your ears etc. 

 

I guess ultimately they are what they are when all is said and done, fan optimism/pessimism will play no role.

56 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

 

I don't think we're 7-9... I actually think we'll go 10-6 or 11-5 but I'm not super high on McD in his coaching style either

 

A second half season collapse is what this franchise has been known for, so I guess my "prediction" is predicated on past seasons, which should have no bearing on this season, yet the pattern has repeated quite frequently throughout recent history, so the odds are good they will collapse. If they do collapse, I'd be surprised if McDermott survives.

[Nextmanup]

On 10/28/2019 at 12:11 PM, ngbills said:

Wow. Low bar we have here. Win 1-2 games against good teams. Hope for an easy schedule so maybe we can get 7-9 wins. 

The sad truth is that this organization has been so bad, for so long, most fans here have forgotten what we are supposed to be cheering for.  The answer is a championship.

 

I genuinely believe a lot of Bills fans are content simply knowing that the organization doesn't appear to be a tire fire anymore, or filled with leaks to the media, or getting blown out routinely on Sundays.  

 

The objective is to win a championship.  In order to do that, you have to first make the playoffs, then beat a bunch of really good teams under difficult conditions, in a row.

 

Close wins over bad teams in the regular season, a wildcard berth, and a fast exist in playoff game 1 is not really what this is all about.

 

Fans here will catch up to this way of thinking when we get there later this year.

 

Look how long it took many of them to realize Tyrod Taylor is a backup QB!   

 

 

[jrober38]

17 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

They’re winning games vs many teams on their schedule while in the midst of a rebuild. The Bills offense is not nearly a finished product yet. The defense needs one or two players. If they were losing to “ cupcakes”, that would definitely make them a bad team. There are a lot of bad teams in the NFL, some above average teams ( Bills fall in that range) and a few very good teams. The Bills aren’t there yet, but it beats losing most of the games. 

 

Winning is fine. I'm certainly not complaining.

 

I just don't see how the offense is going to go from a 19 PPG unit to a 25+ PPG unit with this QB or coordinator. I think the talent on offense is generally pretty good and our issues mostly revolve around our inability to pass the ball effectively. 

 

Allen is an okay QB, but absolutely nothing about his play suggests he's ever going to be a top 10 guy, throwing for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs a season. 

[Nextmanup]

14 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Winning is fine. I'm certainly not complaining.

 

I just don't see how the offense is going to go from a 19 PPG unit to a 25+ PPG unit with this QB or coordinator. I think the talent on offense is generally pretty good and our issues mostly revolve around our inability to pass the ball effectively. 

 

Allen is an okay QB, but absolutely nothing about his play suggests he's ever going to be a top 10 guy, throwing for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs a season. 

I agree with you.  You are not alone in these thoughts, even though most fans who agree with you seem to prefer to be less vocal at this site.  They come out now and again.

 

 

[teef]

9 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I agree with you.  You are not alone in these thoughts, even though most fans who agree with you seem to prefer to be less vocal at this site.  They come out now and again.

 

 

wha?  

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

The sad truth is that this organization has been so bad, for so long, most fans here have forgotten what we are supposed to be cheering for.  The answer is a championship.

 

I genuinely believe a lot of Bills fans are content simply knowing that the organization doesn't appear to be a tire fire anymore, or filled with leaks to the media, or getting blown out routinely on Sundays.  

 

The objective is to win a championship.  In order to do that, you have to first make the playoffs, then beat a bunch of really good teams under difficult conditions, in a row.

 

Close wins over bad teams in the regular season, a wildcard berth, and a fast exist in playoff game 1 is not really what this is all about.

 

Fans here will catch up to this way of thinking when we get there later this year.

 

Look how long it took many of them to realize Tyrod Taylor is a backup QB!   

 

 

 

I'd agree with this.

 

For me everything changed two years ago when we made the playoffs and got the monkey off our back. Now it's how do we win a playoff game, and ultimately a championship. 

 

Josh Allen is an okay QB who can probably guide us to the postseason most years as long as the defense is good, but I don't see a guy who is going to win in the postseason. Our achilles heel as a team right now is our passing game and lack of point production, and that primarily stems from our QB play which hasn't been very good. Allen is 28th in QB Rating despite a massively upgraded offense around him over what he had a year ago.

 

He's improved over last season, but not enough IMO. I was hoping for a QB rating above 90 and he's not even close at this point despite having faced a fairly cupcake schedule up until this point. 

[Stank_Nasty]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

The sad truth is that this organization has been so bad, for so long, most fans here have forgotten what we are supposed to be cheering for.  The answer is a championship.

 

I genuinely believe a lot of Bills fans are content simply knowing that the organization doesn't appear to be a tire fire anymore, or filled with leaks to the media, or getting blown out routinely on Sundays.  

 

The objective is to win a championship.  In order to do that, you have to first make the playoffs, then beat a bunch of really good teams under difficult conditions, in a row.

 

Close wins over bad teams in the regular season, a wildcard berth, and a fast exist in playoff game 1 is not really what this is all about.

 

Fans here will catch up to this way of thinking when we get there later this year.

 

Look how long it took many of them to realize Tyrod Taylor is a backup QB!   

 

 

Apparently if we aren’t thinking championship we must be content with mediocrity. PUH-LEASE. Get a clue man. You don’t get “it” more than any other fan. 
 

how about goals like incremental growth and developing draft picks. How about making the playoffs year one? How about playoffs 2 out of your first 3 years after a 17 year drought. The goal of which this year would be to win 10-11 games and hopefully take the next step and find a win in the post season. This would make the season a success without the championship and would show real growth as a franchise. 
 

Nope. Apparently if I’m not thinking “championship or bust” I’m ok with mediocrity..... whatever man. 

10 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Josh Allen is an okay QB who can probably guide us to the postseason most years as long as the defense is good, but I don't see a guy who is going to win in the postseason. Our achilles heel as a team right now is our passing game and lack of point production, and that primarily stems from our QB play which hasn't been very good. Allen is 28th in QB Rating despite a massively upgraded offense around him over what he had a year ago.

 

 

I’m glad you could come to this conclusion after 19 stars. You just get IT. Good for you man. 

 

Always good for a laugh. 

 

[teef]

17 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Apparently if we aren’t thinking championship we must be content with mediocrity. PUH-LEASE. Get a clue man. You don’t get “it” more than any other fan. 
 

how about goals like incremental growth and developing draft picks. How about making the playoffs year one? How about playoffs 2 out of your first 3 years after a 17 year drought. The goal of which this year would be to win 10-11 games and hopefully take the next step and find a win in the post season. This would make the season a success without the championship and would show real growth as a franchise. 
 

 

 

the guys just "knows" and the rest of the fans are drooling morons.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

the guys just "knows" and the rest of the fans are drooling morons.

We mere mortals have no clue what real expectations should look like 

[teef]

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

We mere mortals have no clue what real expectations should look like 

what can you expect from a bunch of homers.  he's even bringing up watkins and dareus today.  if you're still bringing up those too, there's a massive problem.  nothing worse when people spew *****, but won't actually back it up.  

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agreed I know it is dangerous to look too far ahead schedule wise but next year we play the Chiefs, the Chargers (who are talented under achievers at the moment), the Raiders who are headed the right way, and the NFC West trio of Seahawks, 49ers and Rams all of whom are playoff talent level teams and the Cardinals who have started to show something. Plus likely a second place schedule that includes one of Indy or Houston and one of Cleveland or Pittsburgh. If Brady retires maybe New England takes a step back but whereas this year I could get us to 8 wins without even picking us to beat anyone I properly considered "good" on that schedule next year 8-8 would be a decent return.  

So basically we play a lot of talented and good offenses which we have severe trouble of keeping up with. The pressure will be on Allen and the offense.

[jrober38]

12 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I’m glad you could come to this conclusion after 19 stars. You just get IT. Good for you man. 

 

Always good for a laugh. 

 

 

If you're satisfied that's great. 

 

I'm just saying that I see a guy who still struggles to do the basics a few times each game, and literally hasn't completed a deep pass all season.

 

He was bottom of the barrel in QB Rating as a rookie and is still 28th in the NFL this year. That's not good enough.

 

I was expecting more improvement. Given where he's at, I don't see anything whatsoever that says Josh is eventually going to be a 4,000 yard and 30 TD type QB. 

 

Reality is there aren't many QBs from the past 20 years out there who struggled like this early on who went on to become elite passers. 

[Stank_Nasty]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you're satisfied that's great. 

 

I'm just saying that I see a guy who still struggles to do the basics a few times each game, and literally hasn't completed a deep pass all season.

 

He was bottom of the barrel in QB Rating as a rookie and is still 28th in the NFL this year. That's not good enough.

 

I was expecting more improvement. Given where he's at, I don't see anything whatsoever that says Josh is eventually going to be a 4,000 yard and 30 TD type QB. 

 

Reality is there aren't many QBs from the past 20 years out there who struggled like this early on who went on to become elite passers. 

How did you get me being satisfied out of what I said? I’m not in the least. He’s got to get better. End of story. What is it with a certain few of you that think anytime a fan says they are content with how things are going FOR NOW that it means they are satisfied for the long haul. I can be happy with how things are turning out this year and realize we need more Development from the team for title aspirations to be reality... you and a couple other high horse riders think that if anyone isn’t pissing and moaning about everything going wrong they must love mediocrity. It’s absurd. 
 

Also I find it hilarious when people make a hard call on a guy 19 games in. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Stank_Nasty

[John from Riverside]

On 10/28/2019 at 9:20 AM, I am the egg man said:

Blowout losses speak volumes.

 

Imo, 10 of McD's 19 losses have been such.

5 and 2 speaks volumes as well

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'd agree with this.

 

For me everything changed two years ago when we made the playoffs and got the monkey off our back. Now it's how do we win a playoff game, and ultimately a championship. 

 

Josh Allen is an okay QB who can probably guide us to the postseason most years as long as the defense is good, but I don't see a guy who is going to win in the postseason. Our achilles heel as a team right now is our passing game and lack of point production, and that primarily stems from our QB play which hasn't been very good. Allen is 28th in QB Rating despite a massively upgraded offense around him over what he had a year ago.

 

He's improved over last season, but not enough IMO. I was hoping for a QB rating above 90 and he's not even close at this point despite having faced a fairly cupcake schedule up until this point. 

Let’s get there and find out fourth-quarter Josh will beVery helpful in the playoffs

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you're satisfied that's great. 

 

I'm just saying that I see a guy who still struggles to do the basics a few times each game, and literally hasn't completed a deep pass all season.

 

He was bottom of the barrel in QB Rating as a rookie and is still 28th in the NFL this year. That's not good enough.

 

I was expecting more improvement. Given where he's at, I don't see anything whatsoever that says Josh is eventually going to be a 4,000 yard and 30 TD type QB. 

 

Reality is there aren't many QBs from the past 20 years out there who struggled like this early on who went on to become elite passers. 

Sad but true. 

- There's plenty of examples of guys who "got it" right out of the box and then went on to become very good-to-elite QBs: Wilson, Watson, Mahomes, Ryan, Brady, Prescott, Flacco, Eli, Dalton, Carson Palmer, Big Ben, Wentz (Lamar Jackson?) ... if you add in those who carried a clipboard for a couple years or more, add in Rodgers, Garoppolo, Rivers, etc.

- There's plenty of guys who started strong and seemed well on their way to franchise QB status, only to fizzle before too long. Trubisky (2nd year breakout) may fit here unless he turns it around fast. Mariota (2nd year sort of breakout) too. RG3 (but injury?).

- And, of course, there's plenty of guys who struggled mightily early on and then washed out quickly. Nothing surprising there. 

- But the list of guys who struggled for an extended time and then emerged (3rd year as a starter or later) as very good-to-elite is a short one. Peyton Manning (Year 3 takeoff, but he was drafted 22 years ago), Matthew Stafford (3rd year breakout, but he missed almost all of Year 2) ... Help me out here, who am I missing? Bortles in 2017 looked like he might be pulling this off, but then we all know what happened. (Remember, the OP said in the last 20 years; no fair bringing up Jim Kelly or John Elway)

Based purely on comparables through a year and a half, my realistic guess is that Josh Allen most resembles a Jake Locker. (Hey, I liked Locker! I wanted the Bills to grab him when the Titans moved on to Mariota). Let's hope it's a healthier Jake Locker with more time to develop before a reckless style does him in.

Edited October 30, 2019 by The Frankish Reich

[row_33]

17 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

This is bs^ The Pats * and TB try to bury you. Every drive, every game. They were trying their damndest that day like any other. 

Pats pack it in when the game is won, they won’t risk a thing when it’s won early, they stopped pushing after the 95 yard drive ended in the INT

 

the last few seasons they have semi-tanked games that were possibly winnable in the 4th

All about load management the last few seasons, winning the division with ease and  gearing up for a SB run 

 

[Rocky Landing]

2 hours ago, row_33 said:

Pats pack it in when the game is won, they won’t risk a thing when it’s won early, they stopped pushing after the 95 yard drive ended in the INT

 

the last few seasons they have semi-tanked games that were possibly winnable in the 4th

All about load management the last few seasons, winning the division with ease and  gearing up for a SB run 

 

In what universe? The Pats* currently have 189 net points for the season, the most in the NFL by a wide margin.

[row_33]

16 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

In what universe? The Pats* currently have 189 net points for the season, the most in the NFL by a wide margin.

 

 

oh... a STAT with ZERO context.... far better to lean on that over watching the actual games... 

 

 

they can't help it by winning over horrible teams

 

i don't mind a team putting points on the board against a cupcake as long as they don't toss out cheap shots or rub it in

 

they have to finish the game, the second string wants its cut of the glory, and you can't kneel down 3 times and punt the last half of the game

 

 

 

and the D is stopping most everything, random TDs are occurring

 

last year the Pats sleptwalked through most of the season, turned the D up for the playoffs and took the Chargers out quickly, then stole a game off the Chiefs (well, it WAS Andy Reid...)

 

 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by row_33

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, row_33 said:

 

 

oh... a STAT with ZERO context.... far better to lean on that over watching the actual games... 

 

 

they can't help it by winning over horrible teams

 

i don't mind a team putting points on the board against a cupcake as long as they don't toss out cheap shots or rub it in

 

they have to finish the game, the second string wants its cut of the glory, and you can't kneel down 3 times and punt the last half of the game

 

 

 

and the D is stopping most everything, random TDs are occurring

 

last year the Pats sleptwalked through most of the season, turned the D up for the playoffs and took the Chargers out quickly, then stole a game off the Chiefs (well, it WAS Andy Reid...)

 

 

 

 

Sorry, Bub. That stat provides context. 

[jrober38]

21 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

How did you get me being satisfied out of what I said? I’m not in the least. He’s got to get better. End of story. What is it with a certain few of you that think anytime a fan says they are content with how things are going FOR NOW that it means they are satisfied for the long haul. I can be happy with how things are turning out this year and realize we need more Development from the team for title aspirations to be reality... you and a couple other high horse riders think that if anyone isn’t pissing and moaning about everything going wrong they must love mediocrity. It’s absurd. 
 

Also I find it hilarious when people make a hard call on a guy 19 games in. 

 

I'm in the same boat. This is fine. The team is winning and should make the playoffs, I just haven't seen anything that says this will be a team capable of beating anyone in a playoff game and I think that mostly stems to the fact our passing game is so poor.

 

I think Allen has mostly looked as advertised. He's a good field general who commands the huddle, makes some impressive throws and can get out of trouble with his legs, but there are glaring flaws as well, particularly with accuracy and his decision making. Usually those things don't get a whole lot better which is why I'm not overly optimistic. 

 

I think to contend for a Super Bowl right now you need an elite QB, and I'm not sure he's going to become one. Guys with his issues don't usually go onto be top tier NFL QBs. 

17 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Sad but true. 

- There's plenty of examples of guys who "got it" right out of the box and then went on to become very good-to-elite QBs: Wilson, Watson, Mahomes, Ryan, Brady, Prescott, Flacco, Eli, Dalton, Carson Palmer, Big Ben, Wentz (Lamar Jackson?) ... if you add in those who carried a clipboard for a couple years or more, add in Rodgers, Garoppolo, Rivers, etc.

- There's plenty of guys who started strong and seemed well on their way to franchise QB status, only to fizzle before too long. Trubisky (2nd year breakout) may fit here unless he turns it around fast. Mariota (2nd year sort of breakout) too. RG3 (but injury?).

- And, of course, there's plenty of guys who struggled mightily early on and then washed out quickly. Nothing surprising there. 

- But the list of guys who struggled for an extended time and then emerged (3rd year as a starter or later) as very good-to-elite is a short one. Peyton Manning (Year 3 takeoff, but he was drafted 22 years ago), Matthew Stafford (3rd year breakout, but he missed almost all of Year 2) ... Help me out here, who am I missing? Bortles in 2017 looked like he might be pulling this off, but then we all know what happened. (Remember, the OP said in the last 20 years; no fair bringing up Jim Kelly or John Elway)

Based purely on comparables through a year and a half, my realistic guess is that Josh Allen most resembles a Jake Locker. (Hey, I liked Locker! I wanted the Bills to grab him when the Titans moved on to Mariota). Let's hope it's a healthier Jake Locker with more time to develop before a reckless style does him in.

 

Exactly.

 

The guys who have become elite passers over the past 15 years almost entirely showed signs they'd be elite almost as soon as they got on the field. In their 2nd season they were almost all playing at an extremely high level.

 

Our QB sits 28th in the NFL in QB Rating, despite playing one of the worst schedules in the league.

 

Allen does a lot of good things that don't show up in the box score to influence his QB Rating (similar to Cam Newton in his prime who never had a great rating), but I don't think he does enough to make up for his shortfalls as a passer, particularly against good competition. Unless we want him to keep running 10+ times a game, which will inevitably lead to him getting hurt, he needs to get a hell of a lot better with his arm, throwing from the pocket.