Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[LSHMEAB]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. 

 

Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate.  The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw?  Four.  Four out over over 400.   I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful.  Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever.  It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%.

 

But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid.

I understand your point, but I believe that every single play MATTERS when you're talking about the NFL. Games are generally close and the margin for error is slim. By the same token, 4 FEWER completions would have meant something like 57.5(or close).

 

The Bills have to add talent so Allen can fairly be assessed. That much is true. John Brown's inability to get his feet down at Houston was maddening. That's ONE play that mattered a great deal.

 

As an aside, I'm not nearly as concerned about the completion percentage as I am the YPA. For all his progress, this number went from 6.6 to 6.7. I consider that to be an issue. It's largely reflective of the deep ball accuracy. If he's gonna be a gunslinger, something which he's certainly got the tools for, he's gotta hit the "shots" on a more consistent basis.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

I understand your point, but I believe that every single play MATTERS when you're talking about the NFL. Games are generally close and the margin for error is slim. By the same token, 4 FEWER completions would have meant something like 57.5(or close).

 

The Bills have to add talent so Allen can fairly be assessed. That much is true. John Brown's inability to get his feet down at Houston was maddening. That's ONE play that mattered a great deal.

 

As an aside, I'm not nearly as concerned about the completion percentage as I am the YPA. For all his progress, this number went from 6.6 to 6.7. I consider that to be an issue. It's largely reflective of the deep ball accuracy. If he's gonna be a gunslinger, something which he's certainly got the tools for, he's gotta hit the "shots" on a more consistent basis.

I agree he had a problem with the deep ball this year.  Something he definitely needs to work on.  And one play can in fact make a difference in a game.  But not in statistical analysis, especially when trying to parse a 1.2% difference.  A single play is a single play and you can’t prove anything statistically with an N=1 sample size.

10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Was 60% even league average this year? Are we shooting for the lofty goal of 30th in the NFL in completion percentage?

 

I suppose when you rank 32nd even 30th smells sweet.

Tell the people that obsess over a 60% completion rate.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

You're living in a fantasy land.

 

You're literally just saying things you want to be true.

 

Straight from NextGen's Glossary:

 

Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY)

Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.

Give it up. Please stop making up blatant lies. 

 

 

 

 

How about you do the same.

 

You blatantly lied saying Allen only completed one pass that travelled 30 yards in the air and zero passes over 40 yards.

 

You said that and have been proven not just a little wrong, but really wrong.

 

Own it.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. 

 

Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate.  The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw?  Four.  Four out over over 400.   I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful.  Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever.  It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%.

 

But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid.

So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence.  “Hey dad.  Yeah I failed my test, but good news.  If you take just 4 questions that I got wrong and pretend I got them right, I would have earned the lowest possible D minus.”

 

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree he had a problem with the deep ball this year.  Something he definitely needs to work on.  And one play can in fact make a difference in a game.  But not in statistical analysis, especially when trying to parse a 1.2% difference.  A single play is a single play and you can’t prove anything statistically with an N=1 sample size.

Tell the people that obsess over a 60% completion rate.

He was dead last in completion percentage in 2018.  He was dead last in 2019.  The good news is that 33 QBs qualified in 2018 while only 32 qualified in 2019, so he moved up from 33rd to 32nd.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

So you’re saying that context matters? Great. I agree. Put everything into context and we’ll analyze it. I’m on my way to Russell’s for dinner.

 

 

I actually don’t believe that a statistic can be flawed. A statistic is a number, an indicator; nothing more or less.

 

A calculated and manipulated rating, on the other hand, can be flawed.

 

Completion percentage is simply a number—how many passes a QB throws that are caught vs not caught. An analysis that conflates it with accuracy may be flawed (but isn’t necessarily if the correct context is applied).

 

More to say about analysis, but steak awaits.

I put my numbers into context, and they coincided perfectly with the MVP voting the past two seasons.  Your turn.  Hit us with the context that shows that “completions per air yards completion” is a more useful stat than QBR when evaluating QB play.

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence.  “Hey dad.  Yeah I failed my test, but good news.  If you take just 4 questions that I got wrong and pretend I got them right, I would have earned the lowest possible D minus.”

 

He was dead last in completion percentage in 2018.  He was dead last in 2019.  The good news is that 33 QBs qualified in 2018 while only 32 qualified in 2019, so he moved up from 33rd to 32nd.

Again I am not the one obsessing over a 60% completion rate.  That’s you and others.

 

I know exactly what you and others would say if he hit those 4 passes and had a 60% rate.  You'd say it needs to be at least 62%.  In fact someone did just that a few weeks ago.  If he threw for 65% you’d say it has to be 70%.  If he threw for 100% you’d pivot to some other stat to whine about.  Or say he needs to be 110%; given the math and stats skills I’ve see in some that would not surprise me in the least.

 

Same with the 300 yard stuff that gets brought up time and time again.  We all know what will happen when he hits that mark.  The whiners will either say it didn’t matter because they lost (even though it had been mentioned time and again that 300 yards doesn’t match wins), or that one game is a fluke or that the D they played was poor and so on.

 

We all saw Allen improve this past season over his rookie year.  Denying that would be ridiculous.  We all know he still has a lot of improvement to make.  Denying that would be ridiculous.  And we all know there are some here that either believe a QB should be a completely finished product day 1, or that make judgments on players predraft and then desperately try to run a player down to justify their opinion.  Denying that would also be ridiculous.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, Billl said:

So if we just goose his numbers slightly, you can pretend that he meets the bare minimum level of competence.

 

What “bare minimum level of competence” is it that Josh Allen allegedly didn’t meet, and needs numbers goosed to achieve?

 

He’s a professional NFL QB.  His job is to generate offense to help his team win games.   The team won 10 games and went to the playoffs.  By generating 3599 yds of passing and rushing offense, 29 TD, and 14 TO, he did his job.  

 

Could he have generated more offense, sure.  But to imply he needs “goosing” to meet the “bare minimum level of competence” at his job is cray-cray.

 

 

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This post tells me a lot about you.

 

You don't watch the Bills much, do you?

 

I got 4 deep passes off the top of my head:

 

John Brown TD against Denver

John Brown deep ball on Game Winning Drive in Pittsburgh

Dawson Knox pass that was originally ruled a TD but moved to the 1 in NE

John Brown TD in NE

 

Well this just isn't right at all.

 

Can you do math?

 

31 drops

 

461 attempts

271 completions

 

I don't know what you mean by "eliminating drops," but I would assume you mean counting those drops as catches since the throws were on target.

 

271 + 31 = 302

 

302 / 461 = 65.5%

 

Don't know where the hell you came up with 62%

 

I did it by team because I've yet to see any data that says who the QB was for every team when a pass was dropped.

 

Matt Barkley threw roughly 10% of the passes we attempted this year. Also we had 26 drops as per stats.com which is the source I used.

 

Our team's completion percentage was still like 4th or 5th worst in the NFL including the drops.

 

I assume most of that had to do with Allen, but I also don't know if any of our receivers dropped passes from Barkley. I assume they did.

 

Anyway you slice it, Allen was near the bottom of the NFL in completion and adjusted completion percentage. Whether he's last, fifth last, or anywhere in the bottom ten, that's not good.

 

When I looked through this, I just plugged in teams at the bottom of the NFL to see who came up with an adjusted number higher than the Bills. I didn't write it down, and I think I came up with 4 teams who were worse than the Bills. I think they were Cinci, Indy, Cleveland and Detroit.

Edited January 24, 2020 by jrober38

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I did it by team because I've yet to see any data that says who the QB was for every team when a pass was dropped.

 

Matt Barkley threw roughly 10% of the passes we attempted this year. Also we had 26 drops as per stats.com which is the source I used.

 

Our team's completion percentage was still like 4th or 5th worst in the NFL including the drops.

 

I assume most of that had to do with Allen, but I also don't know if any of our receivers dropped passes from Barkley. I assume they did.

 

Anyway you slice it, Allen was near the bottom of the NFL in completion and adjusted completion percentage. Whether he's last, fifth last, or anywhere in the bottom ten, that's not good.

 

You can find passer data for drops on pro.football.reference.  Go to current season, passing, advanced passing, and click on the accuracy tab.  Click on the drops heading to sort by drop percentage.  You can find that Allen is scored as having 7.2% drops, which comes to 31.  Drops are scored slightly differently by different organizations, pfr uses the same scoring as NFL advanced stats.

 

The league average drop percent is 4.9%.  (That’s not on the site, I calculated it).

 

Adjusted completion percentage usually takes into account throw-always and spikes as well as drops.

[jrober38]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You can find passer data for drops on pro.football.reference.  Go to current season, passing, advanced passing, and click on the accuracy tab.  Click on the drops heading to sort by drop percentage.  You can find that Allen is scored as having 7.2% drops, which comes to 31.  Drops are scored slightly differently by different organizations, pfr uses the same scoring as NFL advanced stats.

 

The league average drop percent is 4.9%.  (That’s not on the site, I calculated it).

 

Adjusted completion percentage usually takes into account throw-always and spikes as well as drops.

 

Sheesh. The fact that there's no consensus on some stats is beyond frustrating.

 

If it's that high maybe we get past one or two more teams. I don't know, and frankly I don't really care to check anymore.

 

If I'm wrong I'm wrong. I just went with the numbers I found.

 

Also I realize that's a true adjusted completion percentage. I just couldn't find it, and I couldn't find any data regarding the number of passes thrown away. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Sheesh. The fact that there's no consensus on some stats is beyond frustrating.

 

If it's that high maybe we get past one or two more teams. I don't know, and frankly I don't really care to check anymore.

 

If I'm wrong I'm wrong. I just went with the numbers I found.

 

Also I realize that's a true adjusted completion percentage. I just couldn't find it, and I couldn't find any data regarding the number of passes thrown away. 

 

Since the definition of a drop is a pass which could be caught with “ordinary effort” by a WR, there is bound to be some difference in how that is scored.    It’s not an official NFL stat for that reason.  

 

The data on throw-always is in the same table - 25.  3 spikes.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Since the definition of a drop is a pass which could be caught with “ordinary effort” by a WR, there is bound to be some difference in how that is scored.    It’s not an official NFL stat for that reason.  

 

The data on throw-always is in the same table - 25.  3 spikes.

 

Is this all their pay for access stuff?

 

I've tried digging around on PFF and always recall running into a bunch of pay walls to see anything interesting. 

[thebandit27]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You can find passer data for drops on pro.football.reference.  Go to current season, passing, advanced passing, and click on the accuracy tab.  Click on the drops heading to sort by drop percentage.  You can find that Allen is scored as having 7.2% drops, which comes to 31.  Drops are scored slightly differently by different organizations, pfr uses the same scoring as NFL advanced stats.

 

The league average drop percent is 4.9%.  (That’s not on the site, I calculated it).

 

Adjusted completion percentage usually takes into account throw-always and spikes as well as drops.

The most relevant stat to the accuracy discussion that PFR does is “on target throwing percentage”...Allen is 21st.

1 hour ago, Billl said:

I put my numbers into context, and they coincided perfectly with the MVP voting the past two seasons.  Your turn.  Hit us with the context that shows that “completions per air yards completion” is a more useful stat than QBR when evaluating QB play.

 

So in other words you want to throw out any statistics that don’t agree with your position? I feel like there was a poster that got upset that someone else was doing that...think his handle was Billl, or something like that...

 

I didn’t ever say that any one statistic correlated more strongly with great QB play—you did. Funny how every discussion involving someone that doesn’t like Allen always involves them having to straw man (or flat out make things up) at some point.

 

How about this: there are things that Allen is very good at; scoring TDs and delivering in crunch time among them. There are also areas where he clearly needs to improve (as I and just about everyone else on the planet have said over and over and over and over).

 

Is that so hard to acknowledge? 

[leonbus23]

Does Allen pass the eye test?

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, leonbus23 said:

Does Allen pass the eye test?

You mean like, when you look at him in shorts, it moves a little bit? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, leonbus23 said:

Does Allen pass the eye test?

 

I guess that depends upon whose eyes. ?️

[leonbus23]

19 minutes ago, Mango said:

You mean like, when you look at him in shorts, it moves a little bit? 

At least a little bit. The movement correlates with the eye test results. 

[mramefa]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

That’s certainly food for thought.  Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG.  I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be.

Here are the 15 quarterbacks with the most 4th quarter comebacks in NFL history (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm). Not a bad list

 

1          Peyton Manning         43        1998-2015      2TM     View Comebacks

2          Tom Brady      36        2000-2019      nwe     View Comebacks

3          Drew Brees     35        2001-2019      2TM     View Comebacks

4          Johnny Unitas+           34        1956-1973      2TM     View Comebacks

5          Dan Marino+   33        1983-1999      mia      View Comebacks

6          John Elway+    31        1983-1998      den      View Comebacks

            Ben Roethlisberger     31        2004-2019      pit        View Comebacks

8          Matt Ryan       30        2008-2019      atl        View Comebacks

9          Fran Tarkenton+         29        1961-1978      2TM     View Comebacks

            Vinny Testaverde        29        1987-2007      7TM     View Comebacks

11        Brett Favre+    28        1991-2010      4TM     View Comebacks

            Matthew Stafford       28        2009-2019      det       View Comebacks

13        Eli Manning     27        2004-2019      nyg      View Comebacks

            Philip Rivers    27        2004-2019      sdg      View Comebacks

15        Joe Montana+ 26        1979-1994      2TM     View Co

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Is this all their pay for access stuff?

 

I've tried digging around on PFF and always recall running into a bunch of pay walls to see anything interesting. 

 

I referred to Pro.football.reference not PFF

Free

Sorry about not providing a link, my mobile device isn’t being friendly about letting me paste in links

 

[BringBackOrton]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree he had a problem with the deep ball this year.  Something he definitely needs to work on.  And one play can in fact make a difference in a game.  But not in statistical analysis, especially when trying to parse a 1.2% difference.  A single play is a single play and you can’t prove anything statistically with an N=1 sample size.

Tell the people that obsess over a 60% completion rate.

I’ll tell them to up their expectations to competent.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I did it by team because I've yet to see any data that says who the QB was for every team when a pass was dropped.

 

Matt Barkley threw roughly 10% of the passes we attempted this year. Also we had 26 drops as per stats.com which is the source I used.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

5 drops for Barkley 

31 drops for Allen

 

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Our team's completion percentage was still like 4th or 5th worst in the NFL including the drops.

 

I assume most of that had to do with Allen, but I also don't know if any of our receivers dropped passes from Barkley. I assume they did.

 

They did. 5 of them.

 

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Anyway you slice it, Allen was near the bottom of the NFL in completion and adjusted completion percentage. Whether he's last, fifth last, or anywhere in the bottom ten, that's not good.

 

Not good enough long term.

 

But considering where he was last year, it's big progress. And there would be absolutely no reason to believe he couldn't make another big step with a full offseason the way he did year 1 to year 2.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

The most relevant stat to the accuracy discussion that PFR does is “on target throwing percentage”...Allen is 21st.

 

Which is what you can actually see if you watch the games.

 

I don't know what exactly @jrober38 will do when he sees that Allen's on target percentage is better than the likes of Brady, Goff, and Wentz.

[oldmanfan]

52 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ll tell them to up their expectations to competent.

Good

[transplantbillsfan]

For those struggling to find 30+ yard passes from Allen

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/highlight-josh-allen-hits-dawson-knox-for-33-yard-completion

7:15 mark

 

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Which is what you can actually see if you watch the games.

 

I don't know what exactly @jrober38 will do when he sees that Allen's on target percentage is better than the likes of Brady, Goff, and Wentz.

Yes, Brady Goff and Wentz who were all universally lauded this year for their stellar play.

[thebandit27]

3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Yes, Brady Goff and Wentz who were all universally lauded this year for their stellar play.

I think the more pertinent point is that claiming that Allen is “dead last” in terms of accuracy isn’t true. In fact he’s not even bottom 10. 
 

I’m not saying that we should be happy with 21st, but there’s a relative chasm between the claim and reality.

[Jrb1979]

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

I don't get why people have to use childish terms like homers.  I'm sorry I'm a fan of the Buffalo Bills and root for their QB.  Which team are you a fan of?

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ll tell them to up their expectations to competent.

Wait, am I reading this right? Are you implying that Allen is incompetent?

 

That has to be me misreading it. It just HAS to be.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

All of the better defenses, or just some of them?

 

I ask because Denver and Dallas finished as the 9th and 11th scoring defenses (and both were top 9 at the time they faced Buffalo) and he looked good against them.

 

Nobody disagrees that he’s got a ways to go, but I will never understand why some folks think that anyone that recognizes what he does well consistently and sees signs that are very encouraging in his development somehow doesn’t also acknowledge that he still needs to improve.

[BananaSquad]

10 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

Rookie TE, Rookie RB, 2 under 6’ starting wideouts.... did pretty good for what he was working with in year 2. 

[Big Gun]

Josh is 5th in the league in how far the ball travels in the air towards it's target, he doesn't just settle for dump offs and he is not a checkdown charlie, which I like. Imagine if he did twice a game for 5 more yards his comp % would be well over 60% and the haters would be silent, but whatever. He's trying to get the ball down the field, he's aggressive, good and getting better. He's going to be a stud.

 

 

Games		Passing
Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	IAY	IAY/PA ▼	CAY	CAY/Cmp	CAY/PA	YAC	YAC/Cmp
1	Matthew Stafford	DET	31	QB	8	8	187	291	2499	3097	10.6	1609	8.6	5.5	890	4.8
2	Jameis Winston	TAM	25	QB	16	16	380	626	5109	6500	10.4	3249	8.6	5.2	1860	4.9
3	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	31	QB	12	10	201	286	2742	2715	9.5	1494	7.4	5.2	1248	6.2
4	Russell Wilson*	SEA	31	QB	16	16	341	516	4110	4836	9.4	2402	7.0	4.7	1708	5.0
5	Josh Allen	BUF	23	QB	16	16	271	461	3089	4271	9.3	1758	6.5	3.8	1331	4.9
6	Dak Prescott	DAL	26	QB	16	16	388	596	4902	5510	9.2	2984	7.7	5.0	1918	4.9
7	Deshaun Watson*	HOU	24	QB	15	15	333	495	3852	4400	8.9	2170	6.5	4.4	1682	5.1
8	Aaron Rodgers*	GNB	36	QB	16	16	353	569	4002	5005	8.8	1993	5.6	3.5	2009	5.7
9	Ryan Fitzpatrick	MIA	37	QB	15	13	311	502	3529	4442	8.8	2252	7.2	4.5	1277	4.1
10	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	24	QB	14	14	319	484	4031	4273	8.8	2076	6.5	4.3	1955	6.1
11	Lamar Jackson*+	BAL	22	QB	15	15	265	401	3127	3545	8.8	1767	6.7	4.4	1360	5.1
12	Philip Rivers	LAC	38	QB	16	16	390	591	4615	5031	8.5	2430	6.2	4.1	2185	5.6
13	Baker Mayfield	CLE	24	QB	16	16	317	534	3827	4471	8.4	1992	6.3	3.7	1835	5.8
14	Sam Darnold	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	273	441	3024	3619	8.2	1554	5.7	3.5	1470	5.4
15	Matt Ryan	ATL	34	QB	15	15	408	616	4466	5007	8.1	2816	6.9	4.6	1650	4.0
16	Kyle Allen	CAR	23	QB	13	12	303	489	3322	3938	8.1	1641	5.4	3.4	1681	5.5
17	Carson Wentz	PHI	27	QB	16	16	388	607	4039	4878	8.0	2235	5.8	3.7	1804	4.6
18	Daniel Jones	NYG	22	QB	13	12	284	459	3027	3673	8.0	1619	5.7	3.5	1408	5.0
19	Mason Rudolph	PIT	24	QB	10	8	176	283	1765	2261	8.0	841	4.8	3.0	924	5.3
20	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	25	QB	15	15	326	516	3138	4102	7.9	1729	5.3	3.4	1409	4.3
21	Jacoby Brissett	IND	27	QB	15	15	272	447	2942	3521	7.9	1437	5.3	3.2	1505	5.5
22	Jared Goff	LAR	25	QB	16	16	394	626	4638	4825	7.7	2388	6.1	3.8	2250	5.7
23	Tom Brady	NWE	42	QB	16	16	373	613	4057	4633	7.6	2233	6.0	3.6	1824	4.9
24	Kirk Cousins	MIN	31	QB	15	15	307	444	3603	3395	7.6	1818	5.9	4.1	1785	5.8
25	Andy Dalton	CIN	32	QB	13	13	314	528	3494	3969	7.5	1834	5.8	3.5	1660	5.3
26	Kyler Murray	ARI	22	QB	16	16	349	542	3722	3987	7.4	1870	5.4	3.5	1852	5.3
27	Gardner Minshew	JAX	23	QB	14	12	285	470	3271	3328	7.1	1687	5.9	3.6	1584	5.6
28	Case Keenum	WAS	31	QB	10	8	160	247	1707	1700	6.9	907	5.7	3.7	800	5.0
29	Joe Flacco	DEN	34	QB	8	8	171	262	1822	1750	6.7	915	5.4	3.5	907	5.3
30	Derek Carr	OAK	28	QB	16	16	361	513	4054	3364	6.6	1932	5.4	3.8	2122	5.9
31	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	28	QB	16	16	329	476	3978	3088	6.5	1806	5.5	3.8	2172	6.6
32	Drew Brees*	NOR	40	QB	11	11	281	378	2979	2443	6.5	1495	5.3	4.0	1484	5.3

[Bangarang]

Sometimes I get sad but when I do I think about this thread going on for the next 7 months and then I become happy again.

[Mango]

17 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

If Allen can audible he either can't read the defense or there isn't a scheme to beat it.

 

How do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots? Either smash-mouth with dynamic run plays or developing hot reads to the blitz.

 

The problem is either Daboll's schemes don't have an answer, Allen doesn't like doing audibles, or Allen can't mentally figure out when to call the right play.

 

Even the smurf WRs are fine. Most of Manning's WRs through the years were 6' or shorter. As noted many times on the All-22 WRs were open but he wasn't going for the underneath stuff if he waited a bit, he wanted to throw it deeper.

 

I still say we need a better TE and 1 bigger WR.

 

Yes, a lot of plays fall on a QB. I don't think with modern offenses they can't or don't coach how to get out of situations after studying 1,000's of hours of tape. The adjustment comes from the QB.

 

Which we know not to be true because that is basically the entire idea behind the Erhardt-Perkins. Run 100 different plays out of one formation based on what the defense is showing you. 

 

That does not mean, i do not get frustrated with BD's play calling. I do. I have spend many a Sunday pulling out my hair. 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Mango

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

 

I could just be a *****' atavist here but I think what should concern all of us (including you and those you imply are "not homers" thus more realistic in some way? prove it!) is how badly our OL played against the better defenses in the league this year.  And I see a direct connection to how Allen played in those games.  Oh, yeah, that's an "excuse", because other QB play so well when they're under heavy pressure.  We improved our OL greatly, but I see it as improved from "craptastic" to "mostly functional". 

 

 

 

Just one example, look at the hellacious huge sack/intentional grounding that Allen took in the Houston game.  Matt Parrino calls it.  They rushed 3.  THREE.  That's not to absolve Allen completely.  Protections will break down and he has to have it stacked in his head pre-snap that this is a situation where he MUST throw it away and where he's gonna go.  And for all I know, he had something to do with a wrong protection call.  But we had 7 protecting.  They rushed 3.  THREE.   That was a problem all 2nd half, which leads me to think that Crennell saw something he exploited successfully.

 

 

I don't know if it's scheme, calls, or execution (likely some combination of all 3) but we have GOT to get it together on pass pro because it's not cutting the mustard.  If the Bills want Allen to be their solution long term, and up his play, asking TE to block pro-bowl caliber DEs has GOT to stop.  It leads to QBs being corkscrewed into the ground, strip sacks and other poor offensive outcomes.  Likewise, we simply COULD not cope with the diamond front and delayed blitzes the Ravens used against us.  As a Cover1 article correctly diagnoses:

Baltimore wasn’t afraid of, with the game on the line, repeatedly sending the house at Allen, and Buffalo had no answers for it. The offensive line can’t hold their blocks, the wide receivers aren’t getting open quickly enough or winning in contested catch situations, and Allen continues to miss open receivers deep and struggles fighting for his life against instantaneous pressure. He’s taking too many hits and the offense is stagnating against this strategy, the same used by Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ defense in week four.

 

Let's look at this assessment:

1) the offensive line can't hold their blocks (and sometimes TE or RB asked to block just totally whiff - or the protection scheme is totally wrong for what's coming)

2) the WR aren't getting open quickly enough

3) the WR aren't winning in contested catch situations

4) Allen misses open receivers

 

One of those four things is on Allen - and even there, I would bet Vegas money that Allen hits open receivers deep in practice , so maybe 1) is related to 4) on deep routes that take time to develop.  Yet people here sit back, sip a soda and arbitrarily opine it's "50% on Allen"  SMDH. 

 

Again, I'll be clear - I'm not absolving Allen of any part of this, there are plays where he has time and misses, or has a receiver open for an easy completion and doesn't take the shot. 

 

But none of us know the details of  what's going on with the protection calls, the protection schemes, the play design (read sequence) etc, so putting some arbitrary percentage of blame on Allen seems totally whacked to me. 

 

I do know this - universally, if you want to make a good QB look like crap, give him crap protection against a top D.

[teef]

42 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Allen did improve over his first season. It also helped that the Bills played 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. What should worry some homers in here is how bad Allen played against the better defenses in the league this year. Allen needs to make a big jump next season and I am talking close to the top 10 in the league. I don't get why Bills homers always have such low expectations. 

How do your posts manage to have such a horrible smell to them?

[Stank_Nasty]

anyone have any good recipes worth sharing?

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

anyone have any good recipes worth sharing?

OMG yes. I made this on NYE:

https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/257030/chef-johns-hot-sloppy-joe-dip/
 

Not as a dip; just as a sloppy Joe slider recipe. It was spectacular.

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

OMG yes. I made this on NYE:

https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/257030/chef-johns-hot-sloppy-joe-dip/
 

Not as a dip; just as a sloppy Joe slider recipe. It was spectacular.

"For me this checks all the boxes for a hot party dip. It's relatively cheap and easy to make, but maybe more importantly, it's great hot, warm, or room temp. And it's also incredibly versatile."

 

now THAT... looks like damn good dip! cheap and easy. versatile.... all the reasons I married my wife really.

 

i'm gonna have to give it a go.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[CincyBillsFan]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I could just be a *****' atavist here but I think what should concern all of us (including you and those you imply are "not homers" thus more realistic in some way? prove it!) is how badly our OL played against the better defenses in the league this year.  And I see a direct connection to how Allen played in those games.  Oh, yeah, that's an "excuse", because other QB play so well when they're under heavy pressure.  We improved our OL greatly, but I see it as improved from "craptastic" to "mostly functional". 

 

 

 

Just one example, look at the hellacious huge sack/intentional grounding that Allen took in the Houston game.  Matt Parrino calls it.  They rushed 3.  THREE.  That's not to absolve Allen completely.  Protections will break down and he has to have it stacked in his head pre-snap that this is a situation where he MUST throw it away and where he's gonna go.  And for all I know, he had something to do with a wrong protection call.  But we had 7 protecting.  They rushed 3.  THREE.   That was a problem all 2nd half, which leads me to think that Crennell saw something he exploited successfully.

 

 

I don't know if it's scheme, calls, or execution (likely some combination of all 3) but we have GOT to get it together on pass pro because it's not cutting the mustard.  If the Bills want Allen to be their solution long term, and up his play, asking TE to block pro-bowl caliber DEs has GOT to stop.  It leads to QBs being corkscrewed into the ground, strip sacks and other poor offensive outcomes.  Likewise, we simply COULD not cope with the diamond front and delayed blitzes the Ravens used against us.  As a Cover1 article correctly diagnoses:

Baltimore wasn’t afraid of, with the game on the line, repeatedly sending the house at Allen, and Buffalo had no answers for it. The offensive line can’t hold their blocks, the wide receivers aren’t getting open quickly enough or winning in contested catch situations, and Allen continues to miss open receivers deep and struggles fighting for his life against instantaneous pressure. He’s taking too many hits and the offense is stagnating against this strategy, the same used by Bill Belichick and the Patriots’ defense in week four.

 

Let's look at this assessment:

1) the offensive line can't hold their blocks (and sometimes TE or RB asked to block just totally whiff - or the protection scheme is totally wrong for what's coming)

2) the WR aren't getting open quickly enough

3) the WR aren't winning in contested catch situations

4) Allen misses open receivers

 

One of those four things is on Allen - and even there, I would bet Vegas money that Allen hits open receivers deep in practice , so maybe 1) is related to 4) on deep routes that take time to develop.  Yet people here sit back, sip a soda and arbitrarily opine it's "50% on Allen"  SMDH. 

 

Again, I'll be clear - I'm not absolving Allen of any part of this, there are plays where he has time and misses, or has a receiver open for an easy completion and doesn't take the shot. 

 

But none of us know the details of  what's going on with the protection calls, the protection schemes, the play design (read sequence) etc, so putting some arbitrary percentage of blame on Allen seems totally whacked to me. 

 

I do know this - universally, if you want to make a good QB look like crap, give him crap protection against a top D.

 

 

And when 3 rushers can generate that much pressure that quickly it's a disaster considering that the Texans had EIGHT men in coverage as a result of only rushing 3.

 

As an aside, I listen to Cowherd a lot and over the last month he frequently calls out Allen as an example of the next wave of super QB's.  This is a distinct change from when he was calling Allen a bust.  My guess is that Cowherd has watched some tape and talked to some QB experts who studied Allen and he's changed his mind about him as a result. 

 

From what I've seen Allen does more with less then almost any other QB in the NFL.  It's that simple.  I predict that when the Bills surround Allen with players that lift the Bills into the top half of NFL offenses, Allen will perform as a top 10 QB.  If we ever get the talent on offense to reach the top quarter, Allen will be a top 3 QB.