Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Billl said:

The more I look at this, the worse the "60% completion percentage doesn't matter" crowd looks.  The Bills were 9-0 when completing 60% and 1-5 when they didn't.

The one win was against Pittsburgh when Duck Hodges threw 4 picks, the Steelers fumbled 4 times, and the defense held the Steelers to 229 total yards.  Even with all that, it still took a fourth quarter comeback to win.

 

Maybe.  But it needs to be asked "why did Allen complete less than 60% of his passes on those 6 games"?

 

Correlation is not causation.  Here are some fundamental football reasons why a QB can have a low completion percentage in a game. 

1) The gameplan did not call for establishing the run, or the team was not able to establish the run - forcing them to rely on a pass-heavy game plan.  It's much harder to complete a pass when the D knows what's coming. (Even though I understand why Daboll does it, I loathe the empty backfield for this reason.)

2) The opponent was able to play the WR very physically, screwing up the route timing/depth and forcing more contested throws.  They are able to man-up and the Zebras are keeping the laundry in-pocket.

3) The pass protection was lacking and the QB was harried all game, and did not have time to wait for players to come open or to set and make accurate throws.  Every QB looks worse when he's missing that little bit of extra time.

4) The QB is passing up the "bunnies" (the easy completions) in favor of the higher degree of difficulty "chunk yardage" throws.

 

When I look at those games where Allen had a low completion percentage, I see all 4 of those factors.  There are some poor throws that come into it too, of course, but those will always be there.

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Maybe.  But it needs to be asked "why did Allen complete less than 60% of his passes on those 6 games"?

 

Correlation is not causation.  Here are some fundamental football reasons why a QB can have a low completion percentage in a game

1) The gameplan did not call for establishing the run, or the team was not able to establish the run - forcing them to rely on a pass-heavy game plan

2) The opponent was able to play the WR very physically, screwing up the route timing/depth and forcing more contested throws

3) The pass protection was lacking and the QB was harried all game, and did not have time to wait for players to come open or to set and make accurate throws

4) The QB is passing up the "bunnies" (the easy completions) in favor of the higher degree of difficulty "chunk yardage" throws.

 

When I look at those games where Allen had a low completion percentage, I see all 4 of those factors.  There are some poor throws that come into it too, of course, but those will always be there.

 

That’s also somewhat of a commonality around the league.

 

Just taking a sampling of other young QBs:

 

LAR went 3-4 when Goff was sub-60, and 6-3 when he was plus-60

Eagles went 3-3 with Wentz sub-60, and 6-4 above 60

Cowboys were 1-3 with Dak sub-60; 7-5 with him plus-60

 

It's common for a young QB—even a very good one, to have a few games sub-60. It’s hardly a death sentence...unless the QB is basically the only threat on his team, in which case said team might be overly reliant on him to not have such a game in order to win.

[oldmanfan]

All this angst over 0.25 throws a game.  But we know what will happen here.  As soon as he has a 60% completion rate the nay sayers will say that’s not good enough and the real landmark is 62%.  

[JaCrispy]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

All this angst over 0.25 throws a game.  But we know what will happen here.  As soon as he has a 60% completion rate the nay sayers will say that’s not good enough and the real landmark is 62%.  

Depends on if the 60% still puts him dead last in the league...

[Reed83HOF]

FFS - how are we arguing about completion %. Anyone with eyes could see it was better last year and there were plenty of dropped balls. Allen is accurate enough and the lack of talent at the pass catching positions hurts his numbers - it is not all on him and you are fool if you believe that. Allen is not Fitzy inaccurate where his arm can't cash the check his brain is writing, also he is not Trubisky inaccurate - again he is accurate enough with room to grow with better weapons around him. We have 2 quality WRs and Knox who is a very raw pass catcher; the OL is still a work in progress. 

 

The stats/growth we should be looking at are - how many plays is he leaving on the field from misreads, 3&out/drive and I really am fond of points per drive. Edit: Game winning drives is important as well and Josh had 3 in 2018 & 5 in 2019. 

 

T-23. Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is a slow starter. He’s averaged just 3.6 net yards per pass play on Buffalo’s first possessions, which ranks 29th among starting quarterbacks.

https://theathletic.com/1455838/2019/12/13/by-the-numbers-ranking-nfl-play-callers-based-on-opening-possession-game-scripts/

 

Points/drive

 

3&outs/drive

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/overall-drive-statsoff/2019

 

 

Allen had 10 games out of 17 were he was above the 60% comp %. Those games where he was below were games where the defenses played a lot of Cover 0. In the case of Philly the OL didn't bother to show up that game. Josh and the offense as a whole, were unable to beat Cover 0 consistently at all this year. NE started this in Game 4, CLE copied it, Balt copied it, Pitt used it, NE used it and once the Texans had the lead, they used it as well in critical situations and Josh started forcing plays to try to make it happen. The inability to beat Cover 0 was not all on Josh and this was discussed throughout the season in each game, but some where for sure. 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Reed83HOF

[Mango]

41 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

That’s different than using the mythical 60% to define accuracy.

 

The mythical 300 yard game that means nothing...

The mythical 60% completion percentage that means nothing...

It's not inaccurate, it is imprecise...

Nothing means anything...

 

We get it, you are a contrarian and Josh Allen makes your belly tingle. 

 

24 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

All this angst over 0.25 throws a game.  But we know what will happen here.  As soon as he has a 60% completion rate the nay sayers will say that’s not good enough and the real landmark is 62%.  

 

I don't think it is the 58% on its own that is frustrating for people, it is the way he got it. In 7 games (of 17) he threw 53% or worse. In three of those he was under 50%. I think we can all agree those are pretty terrible numbers against even the best defenses in the league. About 40% of the time. the performance has been pretty bad. Even though there are a lot of things that go into that bad performance, a large part of games like that will fall on the QB. It is pretty rare that a QB will throw for <50% and everybody will let him down, while he plays well. 

 

If Josh can raise his floor and lower his frequency of bad performances, all of his numbers will take a huge leap and you will probably hear much less from the naysayers. But if Josh takes his 3 games at 60-61% and jumps them to 63%, but still lays 7 clunkers hovering at 50% +/-, and averages 61% for the season, people are going to be vocal about poor QB play. Because in 2020, 7 games flirting with the 50% marker is much too many. 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Never in the history of pro football have so few argued so strenuously and for so long that a particular QB sucked. 

 

The "pro" Allen folks throw out the reasonable and obvious observation that Allen got better from his rookie to his 2nd season.  And then the naysayers express their horror at such homerism and throw out all sorts of stats to show that Allen sucks and will always suck!  He is hopeless so we better draft a QB in the 4th round to give him competition.  And to prove their point they employ more mathematics then was employed by NASA in the moon landings. 

 

That this thread has gone 100 pages without showing any signs of dying out is amazing and a bit sad at the same time. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

48 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Depends on if the 60% still puts him dead last in the league...

And??

16 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

The mythical 300 yard game that means nothing...

The mythical 60% completion percentage that means nothing...

It's not inaccurate, it is imprecise...

Nothing means anything...

 

We get it, you are a contrarian and Josh Allen makes your belly tingle. 

 

 

I don't think it is the 58% on its own that is frustrating for people, it is the way he got it. In 7 games (of 17) he threw 53% or worse. In three of those he was under 50%. I think we can all agree those are pretty terrible numbers against even the best defenses in the league. About 40% of the time. the performance has been pretty bad. Even though there are a lot of things that go into that bad performance, a large part of games like that will fall on the QB. It is pretty rare that a QB will throw for <50% and everybody will let him down, while he plays well. 

 

If Josh can raise his floor and lower his frequency of bad performances, all of his numbers will take a huge leap and you will probably hear much less from the naysayers. But if Josh takes his 3 games at 60-61% and jumps them to 63%, but still lays 7 clunkers hovering at 50% +/-, and averages 61% for the season, people are going to be vocal about poor QB play. Because in 2020, 7 games flirting with the 50% marker is much too many. 

 

Yes, 0.25 throws a game mean nothing.  And has been shown repeatedly 300 yard passing games don’t predict wins.

 

Allen just finished his second year.  He did appreciably better year 2 than year1.  He needs to continue improving.  I and most others say that repeatedly.  So stop with the contrarian nonsense .  He needs to continue improving on presnap reads, processing things quicker, etc.  More experience should help.  

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I see part of the confusion.  There's a terminology thing here.  You are saying "yards in the air"

But then you are looking at distance from the LOS.  You actually mean "yards from the LOS"

 

If you mean "from the LOS", say so!  But that's not "yards in the air".  A 3-step drop for a QB can be 8-9 yds behind the LOS.  Ditto after play-action. 

Shotgun can start 6 yards behind the LOS and the QB's drop adds from there.

 

So the pass to John Brown in the Patriots game, Allen was ~13 yds behind the LOS, the ball went ~46 yds in the air.

Pass to John Brown in the Steelers game, Allen was ~8 yds behind the LOS when he threw, ball went ~43 yds in the air.

 

You can see this in the Nextgen Stats charts, when the little blue arrow showing the initiation on TD passes is usually 6-12 yds behind the LOS

 

Truth:  I'm kind of being a bit of a jackass harping on this because I dislike it when people pontificate without getting their facts or terminology down.

But the truth is, while I know durn well that Allen has completed several passes this season that went more than 41 yds in the air, it really doesn't matter whether they went 30 35 or 41 or 55 yds in the air.

 

Those were significant passes in those games, but they aren't actually the passes that matter too much to a careful assessment of whether or not Josh Allen can succeed as an NFL QB.  They're the "oooohs" and "aaaaahs" moments.

 

 

Dude, you need to back it down.  You're using words imprecisely, talking about "yards in the air" when you mean "LOS"

Own your own part and don't go after other people as putting out "bogus stats which have nothing on tape to support them" when you're creating part of the confusion yourself.

 

I'm not using anything incorrectly.

 

I posted the definition from NextGen's Glossary of what they mean by air yards. There should be absolutely no confusion about what a definition means. It's not exactly a complex paragraph for someone to read and comprehend. 

 

NextGen does not care about where the QB is in relation to the LOS when the ball is thrown. It has nothing to do with the data he posted, as is backed up by the definition provided in their Glossary. 

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Ah, so “the data guy is drunk”? I love it.

 

Unless you're blind, you're intentionally being ignorant.

 

Open the files and watch the videos, then tell me how the biggest air yards Allen had on a completed pass. 

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

OR perhaps the definition that you’ve posted isn’t the way that they calculate it, since if you watch the video and apply just a bit of math, you can quite easily see where the 50.1 number comes from (hint: watch the Denver throw to Smoke again).

 

See this is what I mean: if you’re actually looking for the answer as to why the definition and number don’t seem to line up, then you’d watch the videos analytically, not looking to justify some agenda.

 

But you didn’t. 
 

You just picked them out in order to support a statement that you didn’t research and now are forced to defend because owning a mistake just isn’t your style.

 

Really?

 

You think that they've just ignored their own DEFINITION of how a statistic is calculated.

 

You think that's a real answer to the problem here, and not that you're just refusing to watch the videos and own how incredibly wrong you are?

 

LMAO

[thebandit27]

45 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

The mythical 300 yard game that means nothing...

The mythical 60% completion percentage that means nothing...

It's not inaccurate, it is imprecise...

Nothing means anything...

 

We get it, you are a contrarian and Josh Allen makes your belly tingle. 

 

 

I don't think it is the 58% on its own that is frustrating for people, it is the way he got it. In 7 games (of 17) he threw 53% or worse. In three of those he was under 50%. I think we can all agree those are pretty terrible numbers against even the best defenses in the league. About 40% of the time. the performance has been pretty bad. Even though there are a lot of things that go into that bad performance, a large part of games like that will fall on the QB. It is pretty rare that a QB will throw for <50% and everybody will let him down, while he plays well. 

 

If Josh can raise his floor and lower his frequency of bad performances, all of his numbers will take a huge leap and you will probably hear much less from the naysayers. But if Josh takes his 3 games at 60-61% and jumps them to 63%, but still lays 7 clunkers hovering at 50% +/-, and averages 61% for the season, people are going to be vocal about poor QB play. Because in 2020, 7 games flirting with the 50% marker is much too many. 

 

That last paragraph is solid.

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'm not using anything incorrectly.

 

I posted the definition from NextGen's Glossary of what they mean by air yards. There should be absolutely no confusion about what a definition means. It's not exactly a complex paragraph for someone to read and comprehend. 

 

NextGen does not care about where the QB is in relation to the LOS when the ball is thrown. It has nothing to do with the data he posted, as is backed up by the definition provided in their Glossary. 

 

Unless you're blind, you're intentionally being ignorant.

 

Open the files and watch the videos, then tell me how the biggest air yards Allen had on a completed pass. 

 

Really?

 

You think that they've just ignored their own DEFINITION of how a statistic is calculated.

 

You think that's a real answer to the problem here, and not that you're just refusing to watch the videos and own how incredibly wrong you are?

 

LMAO

Ok, that’s it. I gave you multiple chances to figure out how absolutely, unequivocally wrong you are without publicly shaming you, but I’m done with that:

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

 

LCAD

”Air distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from point of release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Unlike Air Yards, Air Distance measures the actual distance the passer throws the ball”

 

had you actually watched the videos that you posted and claim to have watched, you’d see that clearly the number reflects what both Hapless and I have said. This is really, really easy to understand, so either you’re intentionally obfuscating, or...paging @DC Tom

Edited January 23, 2020 by thebandit27

[Mango]

22 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

And??

Yes, 0.25 throws a game mean nothing.  And has been shown repeatedly 300 yard passing games don’t predict wins.

 

Allen just finished his second year.  He did appreciably better year 2 than year1.  He needs to continue improving.  I and most others say that repeatedly.  So stop with the contrarian nonsense .  He needs to continue improving on presnap reads, processing things quicker, etc.  More experience should help.  

 

I don't think people are that far off, just each side is taking an extra step 

 

9 games >60% (removed Jets 2.0)

 222 yards per game-66%-14TD- 5 INT

 

7 game <60% (plus Houston)

192  yards per game- 49%- 6TD- 4INT

 

The issue is he has been almost as likely to lay an egg as he is to play well. Where everybody is missing whether this line is the penultimate decision on Allen. Half the season is pretty good, half the season is pretty bad. There is some improvement, but there is also a lot that remains the same, and leaves a lot to be desired. Could he do it? For sure. Should you bet your mortgage on it, probably not. 

 

I think the overarching ask for 2020 should be to drop the clunkers from 7 games to 3 or better. If he can do that, I would expect a stat line for the season to be about 3500 yards- 63%, and 2.5:1 TD:INT. His performances have just been so polarized, which is why I think removing the number of really bad games is more important than average stat line. 

[Reed83HOF]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I don't think people are that far off, just each side is taking an extra step 

 

9 games >60% (removed Jets 2.0)

 222 yards per game-66%-14TD- 5 INT

 

7 game <60% (plus Houston)

192  yards per game- 49%- 6TD- 4INT

 

The issue is he has been almost as likely to lay an egg as he is to play well. Where everybody is missing whether this line is the penultimate decision on Allen. Half the season is pretty good, half the season is pretty bad. There is some improvement, but there is also a lot that remains the same, and leaves a lot to be desired. Could he do it? For sure. Should you bet your mortgage on it, probably not. 

 

I think the overarching ask for 2020 should be to drop the clunkers from 7 games to 3 or better. If he can do that, I would expect a stat line for the season to be about 3500 yards- 63%, and 2.5:1 TD:INT. His performances have just been so polarized, which is why I think removing the number of really bad games is more important than average stat line. 

Look at the clunkers and what the defense played against our offense that hindered us on 3rd downs or big downs on potential TDs - Cover 0 - were not successful against that at all last year. When you are behind, your completion % will go down against those defenses who played tougher against you as you are trying to force your way back in the game. It's an indictment more on the offense as a whole, play calling included. A QB who is "inconsistent" will show that week in and week out, not what we have seen with Allen.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I don't think people are that far off, just each side is taking an extra step 

 

9 games >60% (removed Jets 2.0)

 222 yards per game-66%-14TD- 5 INT

 

7 game <60% (plus Houston)

192  yards per game- 49%- 6TD- 4INT

 

The issue is he has been almost as likely to lay an egg as he is to play well. Where everybody is missing whether this line is the penultimate decision on Allen. Half the season is pretty good, half the season is pretty bad. There is some improvement, but there is also a lot that remains the same, and leaves a lot to be desired. Could he do it? For sure. Should you bet your mortgage on it, probably not. 

 

I think the overarching ask for 2020 should be to drop the clunkers from 7 games to 3 or better. If he can do that, I would expect a stat line for the season to be about 3500 yards- 63%, and 2.5:1 TD:INT. His performances have just been so polarized, which is why I think removing the number of really bad games is more important than average stat line. 

I see your point.  He needs to get rid of clunkers like most young QBs do.  I just think it comes down to him getting more experience.  The game slowed down more for him this past season, it should slow down more next season.  He should make quicker decisions with the ball, check down more when needed, etc.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Mango said:

I don't think people are that far off, just each side is taking an extra step 

 

9 games >60% (removed Jets 2.0)

 222 yards per game-66%-14TD- 5 INT

 

7 game <60% (plus Houston)

192  yards per game- 49%- 6TD- 4INT

 

The issue is he has been almost as likely to lay an egg as he is to play well. Where everybody is missing whether this line is the penultimate decision on Allen. Half the season is pretty good, half the season is pretty bad. There is some improvement, but there is also a lot that remains the same, and leaves a lot to be desired. Could he do it? For sure. Should you bet your mortgage on it, probably not. 

 

I think the overarching ask for 2020 should be to drop the clunkers from 7 games to 3 or better. If he can do that, I would expect a stat line for the season to be about 3500 yards- 63%, and 2.5:1 TD:INT. His performances have just been so polarized, which is why I think removing the number of really bad games is more important than average stat line. 

 

Here is my problem:  This is written as though the only, or major, difference in the 9 games vs the 7 games is Josh Allen's level of play.

 

There is another difference: the defenses in those games were much stouter.  They were able to man-up and hinder our "smurf" WR with press coverage (and a judicious helping of uncalled holding and DPI that small guys are susceptible to).   They were able to bring heavy pressure our improved, but not elite, OL was unable to counter effectively.  And, they were able to hone in on weak points in Allen's game (deep post) that our OC had game-planned as the solution to their pressure - and our OC didn't seem to have "Plan B" or "Plan C" waiting in the wings.

 

I think a big part of the difference is that some people are just focused on Allen, and bringing in other factors (even factors objective, non-Bills-fan analysts dissect out) is seen as "excuses".  Other people note that there's a team-wide need for improvement in those games: that Allen's play was one of 3-4 factors that contributed to poor offensive performance in those games.

 

It's not that one week vs Dallas, Allen with adequate time is nailing throws and making the right read on secondary route concepts while the next week with WR not getting open on the called route-concepts before he needs to throw, he's laying down a clunker.  There are other differences in play.

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Here is my problem:  This is written as though the only, or major, difference in the 9 games vs the 7 games is Josh Allen's level of play.

 

There is another difference: the defenses in those games were much stouter.  They were able to man-up and hinder our "smurf" WR with press coverage (and a judicious helping of uncalled holding and DPI that small guys are susceptible to).   They were able to bring heavy pressure our improved, but not elite, OL was unable to counter effectively.  And, they were able to hone in on weak points in Allen's game (deep post) that our OC had game-planned as the solution to their pressure - and our OC didn't seem to have "Plan B" or "Plan C" waiting in the wings.

 

I think a big part of the difference is that some people are just focused on Allen, and bringing in other factors (even factors objective, non-Bills-fan analysts dissect out) is seen as "excuses".  Other people note that there's a team-wide need for improvement in those games: that Allen's play was one of 3-4 factors that contributed to poor offensive performance in those games.

 

It's not that one week vs Dallas, Allen with adequate time is nailing throws and making the right read on secondary route concepts while the next week with WR not getting open on the called route-concepts before he needs to throw, he's laying down a clunker.  There are other differences in play.

Good points.  Statisticians use a term called multivariate analysis, in which multiple variables have to be accounted for in order to arrive at a statistically valid conclusion.  Football is inherently multi variant.  The ability of the QB, pass protection, quality of receivers, quality of opposing defense, availability of a running game to complement the offense, weather.  All are examples of independent variables that can alter the value of a single parameter.  Such as completion percentage.

[Mango]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Here is my problem:  This is written as though the only, or major, difference in the 9 games vs the 7 games is Josh Allen's level of play.

 

There is another difference: the defenses in those games were much stouter.  They were able to man-up and hinder our "smurf" WR with press coverage (and a judicious helping of uncalled holding and DPI that small guys are susceptible to).   They were able to bring heavy pressure our improved, but not elite, OL was unable to counter effectively.  And, they were able to hone in on weak points in Allen's game (deep post) that our OC had game-planned as the solution to their pressure - and our OC didn't seem to have "Plan B" or "Plan C" waiting in the wings.

 

I think a big part of the difference is that some people are just focused on Allen, and bringing in other factors (even factors objective, non-Bills-fan analysts dissect out) is seen as "excuses".  Other people note that there's a team-wide need for improvement in those games: that Allen's play was one of 3-4 factors that contributed to poor offensive performance in those games.

 

It's not that one week vs Dallas, Allen with adequate time is nailing throws and making the right read on secondary route concepts while the next week with WR not getting open on the called route-concepts before he needs to throw, he's laying down a clunker.  There are other differences in play.

 

There is some truth to the defenses, but also some reubttle, and I think that this where the conversation gets lost. How much of the blame goes where. When it comes to passing the ball efficiently I would put most of the load on the QB. A sub 50% performance isn't going to fall on everybody but the QB. Hell, even if the OL, WR, and OC are all to blame, I would (conservatively) put 50% on the QB. 

 

Yes there is Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and NE x2. But Philly and Cleveland are pedestrian, and Houston is pretty trash. 

[Billl]

41 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Good points.  Statisticians use a term called multivariate analysis, in which multiple variables have to be accounted for in order to arrive at a statistically valid conclusion.  Football is inherently multi variant.  The ability of the QB, pass protection, quality of receivers, quality of opposing defense, availability of a running game to complement the offense, weather.  All are examples of independent variables that can alter the value of a single parameter.  Such as completion percentage.

Yes.  And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account.  Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well.

[Reed83HOF]

56 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

There is some truth to the defenses, but also some reubttle, and I think that this where the conversation gets lost. How much of the blame goes where. When it comes to passing the ball efficiently I would put most of the load on the QB. A sub 50% performance isn't going to fall on everybody but the QB. Hell, even if the OL, WR, and OC are all to blame, I would (conservatively) put 50% on the QB. 

 

Yes there is Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and NE x2. But Philly and Cleveland are pedestrian, and Houston is pretty trash. 

and with the exception of Philly - they all played a bunch of Cover 0, which we had zero answers for. Fletcher Cox tore the OL up in the Philly game

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

There is some truth to the defenses, but also some reubttle, and I think that this where the conversation gets lost. How much of the blame goes where. When it comes to passing the ball efficiently I would put most of the load on the QB. A sub 50% performance isn't going to fall on everybody but the QB. Hell, even if the OL, WR, and OC are all to blame, I would (conservatively) put 50% on the QB. 

 

Yes there is Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and NE x2. But Philly and Cleveland are pedestrian, and Houston is pretty trash. 

 

Yes, you’ve made it repetitively clear that is how you see it.

 

What’s not clear at all to me is how you justify (not in the argument or defend yourself sense) this conclusion - what factors do you see as going into a QB’s offensive performance?

I have laid my viewpoint out in a prior post here.  What is yours, to justify that “conservatively 50% on the QB” or “most of the load on the QB”?

 

 

 

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes, you’ve made it repetitively clear that is how you see it.

 

What’s not clear at all to me is how you justify (not in the argument or defend yourself sense) this conclusion - what factors do you see as going into a QB’s offensive performance?

I have laid my viewpoint out in a prior post here.  What is yours, to justify that “conservatively 50% on the QB” or “most of the load on the QB”?

 

 

 

 

Because we are told that Allen has some autonomy at the line to read the defense at the line and change protections/plays based on pre-snap reads. Plus making post snap reads/decisions and making the right decision with an accurate throw. 

 

So ultimately if the QB is correctly:

- identifying the coverage

-calling/changing the correct protections and routes

-making the right read post snap

-deliverying an accurate ball

 

...then they should be successful at completing more than 50% of those passes. 

[BigBillsFan]

If Allen can audible he either can't read the defense or there isn't a scheme to beat it.

 

How do you beat Cover 0 like the Patriots? Either smash-mouth with dynamic run plays or developing hot reads to the blitz.

 

The problem is either Daboll's schemes don't have an answer, Allen doesn't like doing audibles, or Allen can't mentally figure out when to call the right play.

 

Even the smurf WRs are fine. Most of Manning's WRs through the years were 6' or shorter. As noted many times on the All-22 WRs were open but he wasn't going for the underneath stuff if he waited a bit, he wanted to throw it deeper.

 

I still say we need a better TE and 1 bigger WR.

 

Yes, a lot of plays fall on a QB. I don't think with modern offenses they can't or don't coach how to get out of situations after studying 1,000's of hours of tape. The adjustment comes from the QB.

Edited January 23, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Yes.  And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account.  Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well.

Really?  Which ones, how are they weighted, and so on?

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Really?  Which ones, how are they weighted, and so on?

OK boomer, here you go.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

OK boomer, here you go.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula

A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula.  So you're proving my point.

 

Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season.  Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever.  

 

Allen needs to continue to improve.  I have said that repeatedly.  But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity.

[Kangaxx]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Yes.  And metrics like QB rating take these variables into account.  Turns out he's about the 25th best QB in the league by that analysis as well.

QBR is a terrible stat. Nobody with actual knowledge takes it seriously.

Edited January 23, 2020 by BillsFanForReal

[thebandit27]

14 minutes ago, Billl said:

OK boomer, here you go.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=qbr+formula

The same QBR formula that gave Allen a lower QBR for 2019 than 2018 despite him improving his numbers and performance in literally every possible category?

[BigBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula.  So you're proving my point.

 

Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season.  Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever.  

 

Allen needs to continue to improve.  I have said that repeatedly.  But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity.

 

Drops can also be subjective. There is no objective criteria of what a drop is, it's done by someone guessing.

 

The 4 pass thing that lacks statistical significance is also inaccurate. You can raise that to 9 completions for the season to get to 60% too. You started at 59.6% and you could also go to 60.4%.

 

The point is he missed those throws. If they are easy to make then make them. Everyone can say "if they just X it would mean Y". Its the entire argument of Scooby Doo "If it wasn't for you meddling kids..."

 

You either do it or you don't.

 

The same can be said for drops. For every drop you have a circus catch. Duke dropped a super easy one in the playoffs but he had an amazing catch as well. Knox was a dropaholic but he also had 2 catches that were circus like. You don't factor in circus catches as "possible incompletions".

 

I also agree QBR is horrible, it factors in running more than passing, that's why Josh's QBR is lower this year. It's a stat for running QBs.

[Billl]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula.  So you're proving my point.

 

Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season.  Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever.  

 

Allen needs to continue to improve.  I have said that repeatedly.  But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity.

So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect.  Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing.

QBR:  He's not very good

QB rating:  He's not very good

Completion percentage:  He's not very good

PPG:  He's not very good

YPA:  He's not very good

 

Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote.  It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football.

 

Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP.

 

I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB.  That's just one man's opinion, though.  You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.

[thebandit27]

10 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect.  Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing.

QBR:  He's not very good

QB rating:  He's not very good

Completion percentage:  He's not very good

PPG:  He's not very good

YPA:  He's not very good

 

Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote.  It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football.

 

Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP.

 

I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB.  That's just one man's opinion, though.  You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.

Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man.

 

You left out that Allen was...

6th in total TDs by a QB

8th in completed air yards per completion 

1st in 4th quarter comebacks

3rd in 4th quarter passer rating

1st in 3rd and long conversion rate

3rd in 3rd down passer rating 

 

So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses.

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect.  Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing.

QBR:  He's not very good

QB rating:  He's not very good

Completion percentage:  He's not very good

PPG:  He's not very good

YPA:  He's not very good

 

Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote.  It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football.

 

Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP.

 

I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB.  That's just one man's opinion, though.  You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.

Since you used QBR I'm going to assume you don't know much about what you're trying to analyze...confirmed by using three different stats in passer rating/comp%/YPA that (surprise!) Allen fairs poorly in. 

 

Of course, if you knew how passer rating is calculated you'd know how disingenuous it is to refer to three statistics that depend to a large extent on completing a high amount of throws...in reference to a QB like Allen whose receivers dropped passes at an extremely high rate. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Helmed a playoff bound Bills squad in just his second (first full starting) season, showing marked improvement along the way and primed to come back with a juiced roster and hopefully better weapons at WR. If you can’t see what we the homers see in the intangible department to go along with the above, then, well, continue torturing your numbers to admit to whatever floats your boat  

[oldmanfan]

40 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you're advocating for a multivatiable analysis (something that is inherently imperfect) and then rejecting use of said analysis because it isn't perfect.  Every reasonable measure of performance shows the same thing.

QBR:  He's not very good

QB rating:  He's not very good

Completion percentage:  He's not very good

PPG:  He's not very good

YPA:  He's not very good

 

Now maybe you're right and QBR is some terribly flawed metric. It seems like an odd coincidence that the top 2 in 2018 were Mahomes and Brees and that these two also finished as the top two in the MVP vote.  It seems like an even bigger coincidence that the top two this year are Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, the presumptive MVP and the consensus best player in football.

 

Allen, on the other hand is right next to Minshew and Case Keenum, both of whom would be considered, shall we say, long shots to win the MVP.

 

I'm going to go ahead and say that the guy who is 25th in QBR, 25th in QB rating, 30th in yards per game, 26th in yards per attempt, and dead last for the second straight season in completion percentage just isn't a great QB.  That's just one man's opinion, though.  You're free to disagree with me and every available statistical analysis on the subject.

I'm not rejecting it, I'm saying without my knowing what the variables are and how they are weighted it's difficult for me to determine the validity of this particular measure.  And it would appear I'm not alone from the article you posted.  I review a lot of medical and scientific manuscripts submitted for publication and the primary reason they get rejected is because of improper study design and statistics.  

 

This thread is about completion percentage, and just in that alone there are a number of variables to consider.  Is QB one of them?  Absolutely.  I have said more times than I can count since the end of the season that Allen needs to continue improving.  I think there are two primary things that affect his completion rate.  One is that he does not read defenses all that well yet, and as a result sometimes he throws too quickly off a bad platform or sometimes he doesn't make the correct read and take an easier throw over a harder one.  That's on him.  The second is on his WRs/TEs making catches and on the OC setting up plays where he has receivers open.  Those can each be improved on as well.

 

What I do know is that the continual moaning about a 60% pass completion rate being all on Allen, or in some way a testimony to inaccuracy is wrong.  Accuracy does not equal completion percentage.  I showed the math above where the difference between 58.8% and 60% completion rate is 4 passes over his past season.  I just did a quick power analysis to see what the sample size would be to say that 58.8% is truly different than 60%, and you'd need over 35,000 passes to make that meaningful.  

 

Again Allen needs to continue improvement.  But there's a lot of different things that go into that, some under his control and some not.  I just think people need to quit attaching themselves to one number like a 60% completion rate or a 300 yard passing game (when it has been show repeatedly here that 300 yard passers have an equal chance of winning or losing games) as if it definitively means anything.  it doesn't.  it's a lot more complex.

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula.  So you're proving my point.

 

Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season.  Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever.  

 

Allen needs to continue to improve.  I have said that repeatedly.  But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity.

Bad throws causing a lower completion percentage being “irrelevant” is the cherry on top of this Looney Tunes sundae.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man.

 

You left out that Allen was...

6th in total TDs by a QB

8th in completed air yards per completion 

1st in 4th quarter comebacks

3rd in 4th quarter passer rating

1st in 3rd and long conversion rate

3rd in 3rd down passer rating 

 

So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses.

That’s certainly food for thought.  Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG.  I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be.

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Every analysis, or just the ones that support your argument? That knife cuts both ways my man.

 

You left out that Allen was...

6th in total TDs by a QB

8th in completed air yards per completion 

1st in 4th quarter comebacks

3rd in 4th quarter passer rating

1st in 3rd and long conversion rate

3rd in 3rd down passer rating 

 

So maybe it’s not every available analysis; maybe you should also be more receptive to multi variable analyses.

Incredibly, no one ever does a deep dive into Allen’s positive stats to demonstrate that they may be flawed. Funny how that happens.

[thebandit27]

21 minutes ago, Billl said:

That’s certainly food for thought.  Why don’t you show me the top two or three in each of those categories for the past two years, and we’ll see if those are more indicative of top tier QB play that QBR, QB rating, YPA, completion percentage, and PPG.  I know that when I’m trying to figure out what’s what, top 8 in “completed air yards per completion” isn’t the first thing I check, but maybe it should be.

So you’re saying that context matters? Great. I agree. Put everything into context and we’ll analyze it. I’m on my way to Russell’s for dinner.

 

10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Incredibly, no one ever does a deep dive into Allen’s positive stats to demonstrate that they may be flawed. Funny how that happens.

 

I actually don’t believe that a statistic can be flawed. A statistic is a number, an indicator; nothing more or less.

 

A calculated and manipulated rating, on the other hand, can be flawed.

 

Completion percentage is simply a number—how many passes a QB throws that are caught vs not caught. An analysis that conflates it with accuracy may be flawed (but isn’t necessarily if the correct context is applied).

 

More to say about analysis, but steak awaits.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Bad throws causing a lower completion percentage being “irrelevant” is the cherry on top of this Looney Tunes sundae.

To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. 

 

Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate.  The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw?  Four.  Four out over over 400.   I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful.  Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever.  It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%.

 

But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid.

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Everything is too strong. There are things like his physical ability, work ethic, and leadership that I have zero questions about.  But we are hoping he is going to be a better passer in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  I think a lot of posters want to dismiss why he didn’t really dominant at a lower conference the way a top 10 pick should.  Especially with his physical tools.

 

Matt Ryan wasn't dominant.

 

Josh Allen lifted Wyoming as a team more than Matt Ryan lifted Boston College.

[BringBackOrton]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. 

 

Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate.  The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw?  Four.  Four out over over 400.   I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful.  Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever.  It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%.

 

But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid.

Was 60% even league average this year? Are we shooting for the lofty goal of 30th in the NFL in completion percentage?

 

I suppose when you rank 32nd even 30th smells sweet.

Edited January 24, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I think he only connected on one deep ball all year when he hit John Brown and it was like a 30 yard throw.

 

I don't think he hit a single pass that went over 40 yards in the air all season. 

 

This post tells me a lot about you.

 

You don't watch the Bills much, do you?

 

I got 4 deep passes off the top of my head:

 

John Brown TD against Denver

John Brown deep ball on Game Winning Drive in Pittsburgh

Dawson Knox pass that was originally ruled a TD but moved to the 1 in NE

John Brown TD in NE

9 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

I looked into it.

 

Adjusting all QBs completion percentage for dropped passes, Allen was still 4th worst in the NFL among starting QBs.

 

Eliminating drops, his completion percentage was like 62%. 

 

Well this just isn't right at all.

 

Can you do math?

 

31 drops

 

461 attempts

271 completions

 

I don't know what you mean by "eliminating drops," but I would assume you mean counting those drops as catches since the throws were on target.

 

271 + 31 = 302

 

302 / 461 = 65.5%

 

Don't know where the hell you came up with 62%