SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Predicting Buffalo Bills turnovers in 2019 What might we expect in the turnover department for the 2019 Buffalo Bills? https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/7/2/18691455/predicting-buffalo-bills-turnovers-in-2019-interceptions-sean-mcdermott-leslie-frazier 2019 Outlook Takeaways For takeaways, there’s some evidence to suggest that coaching and player stability decrease the volatility of this metric. For Buffalo that means nothing but positives. Leslie Frazier returns as defensive coordinator and Sean McDermott hasn’t gone anywhere. Kyle Williams is the only significant change to the starting defensive roster. The mid-20s is a very reasonable guess. With a projected league rate of about 21 takeaways per team, that would make for a third year over the average. Could they improve? It’s possible but I personally wouldn’t count on a major swing. The Chicago Bears ended the regular season with 36 takeaways to lead the league. To do that, it would likely mean that Ed Oliver has a phenomenal rookie season as he’s the biggest change on that side of the ball. You can’t ever rule out good ol’ fashioned luck either. That could play into a large increase or drop-off. But until further notice, this is a team that takes advantage of opportunities. I know this is one of @Mr. WEO favorite topics of discussion I think it is safe to assume that Josh's turnover rate will diminish somewhat (though the biggest impact there is his TD to INT ration) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacklabel Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 (edited) I guess I'm confused as to why they say Oliver would make a huge difference in turnovers. Yeah, he's the one big difference from last season's roster to this season's roster but I don't think he's like a forced fumble machine. I'd like to see Tre' come down with more picks and see Hyde and Poyer continue to average about 5 picks each a year. Edited July 2, 2019 by blacklabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 takeaways are difficult to predict because so much depends on who you are playing. Turnovers by an offense are much easier to predict and i would expect we lower that number by a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Im guessing we will know better when a game is played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 I could see us top 5 in the league in takeaways. - 3rd year in the system for keep skilled players like White, Poyer and Hyde who are in their prime. - The other DB spot looks to be solid which will make a huge difference. We were really weak last year opposite White until Wallace stepped in. Now there's good competition at that spot. - I think Oliver is going to make a huge difference. I know Lorax rushes a lot in the middle. Would this front 4 be too light on 3rd and 5+?? Murphy Lorax Oliver Hughes. That combination looks pretty good. Oliver should draw a double team which puts Lorax one on one with a guard....I'll take that advantage. And that should help Hughes screaming off the edge because the QB can't step up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Our defense will be well-rested and ready to take the ball away. Offensive strategy this year: Shady rush Gore rush Beasley 3rd down conversion. Rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said: Our defense will be well-rested and ready to take the ball away. Offensive strategy this year: Shady rush Gore rush Beasley 3rd down conversion. Rinse and repeat. that reminded me of something .... The Bill were in 3 or 4 blowouts so the other team would tend to run the ball more thus lowering the rick of turnovers. Though the Shady rush, Gore rush, Beasley 3rd down conversion. would be awesome .... it also reminds me of the latter Thurman years where that was basically the predictable offense, I recall sitting in the stands calling the plays before the snap and was right 95% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalophil1948 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 I think a healthy Murphy will help also. If the front 4 can generate consistent pressure, from all sides, this will help increase the turnover numbers. Hard to tell right now but have high hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Well, “if” Oliver does in fact create pressure up the middle, It can cause opportunity for himself, and other players to have more take aways, I suspect that is what the article was getting at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnychemo Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 I have insider information that Sean like apple turnovers, Beane likes cherry, but keeps eating the apple ones at breakfast just to annoy Sean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Injuries aside, my outlook is 10-6. That’s because I inverted our 6-10 record to 10-6. Makes sense, right? I’m all about THE PROCESS and the roster rebuild is a never ending process. We keep on getting better while Tom Brady keeps on getting older. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boca BIlls Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 6 hours ago, blacklabel said: I guess I'm confused as to why they say Oliver would make a huge difference in turnovers. Yeah, he's the one big difference from last season's roster to this season's roster but I don't think he's like a forced fumble machine. I'd like to see Tre' come down with more picks and see Hyde and Poyer continue to average about 5 picks each a year. Oliver will push a QBs favorite area to step into throws. Which will force them to throw not the way they wanted which should lead more INTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 1/2 of turnovers are sh*t luck. 1 inch here or there... the ball bounces funny. Just hope for good bounces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 7 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said: 1/2 of turnovers are sh*t luck. 1 inch here or there... the ball bounces funny. Just hope for good bounces. Fumbles are typically forced. That's a technique and dedication to punching at or stripping the ball. Now when the ball hits the ground you are correct, it's a matter of how it bounces, but I wouldn't call 1/2 of turnovers "lucky" plays. Interceptions are almost always forced. Either great plays by the secondary or errant throws by the QB because he is under pressure. A small number are "lucky" bounces off the receiver. If I had to guess, perhaps 10% of turnovers are the "lucky" variety and 90% are forced by the defense. Coaches wouldn't spend so much time emphasizing forcing (and avoiding) turnovers if it was just a matter of luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewin Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 20 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said: takeaways are difficult to predict because so much depends on who you are playing if you are playing Nathan Peterman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 As you note, a lot of things point to improvement. Last year they were tied for 7th in INTs. With greater stability at CB2 and more experienced players, notably Taron J in the slot and Edmunds in the middle, there’s no reason they can’t be #1. It’s actually quite a feat that they did so well last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTbills Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 (edited) 22 hours ago, blacklabel said: I guess I'm confused as to why they say Oliver would make a huge difference in turnovers. Yeah, he's the one big difference from last season's roster to this season's roster but I don't think he's like a forced fumble machine. I'd like to see Tre' come down with more picks and see Hyde and Poyer continue to average about 5 picks each a year. Because pressure on the QB ultimately leads to more INT's. He doesn't have to be a "forced fumble machine" to create more turnovers for the defense. I don't know the actual stats on this, but I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say that around 75% of interceptions are thrown under duress. More QB pressures almost always equals more turnovers. Edited July 3, 2019 by CLTbills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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