Revisiting the economic predictions from the progressive establishment

[TPS]

56 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

My position has changed on this topic.  I do believe there is a day or reckoning but I can’t possibly see that happening anytime soon or for that matter while the US maintaining its reserve currency status.   
 

Some country would have to dethrone the US for that to happen and right now there is no country that in the foreseeable future can even challenge the US for that role.

 

I was more dogmatic on my views of QE and deficits years back but the data has led me to change my views to an extent.  So there still is a qualifier there but it’s a remote possibility at this juncture.

 

Also, an area that you were more right than wrong and I was more wrong than right was the view that I believed we would see astonishing levels of inflation.   Even though prices of many important consumer goods did go up such as food and energy which are large components for lower wage workers did feel those inflationary pressures but the Wall Street gauges ie. wage inflation never materialized due to the slack in the economy caused by the Great Recession.

 

I will give you credit on that one.  On the other hand your views on how prescient of an economist that Krugman is, not so much.   ?

I have to give you credit for helping me work out some of the issues in those old debates, because it eventually led to publishing a book--thanks.

 

As for Krugman, I only focused on his point explaining what was happening to the yield curve, don't lump me in with his other predictions....he is too much influenced by TDS for sure...   

49 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

Okay Boomer

Get off of my lawn too!!!

[/dev/null]

2 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

Hyman Roth waited too long and do you see what happened to him?

[Foxx]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

My position has changed on this topic.  I do believe there is a day or reckoning but I can’t possibly see that happening anytime soon or for that matter while the US maintaining its reserve currency status.   
 

Some country would have to dethrone the US for that to happen and right now there is no country that in the foreseeable future can even challenge the US for that role.

 

I was more dogmatic on my views of QE and deficits years back but the data has led me to change my views to an extent.  So there still is a qualifier there but it’s a remote possibility at this juncture.

 

Also, an area that you were more right than wrong and I was more wrong than right was the view that I believed we would see astonishing levels of inflation.   Even though prices of many important consumer goods did go up such as food and energy which are large components for lower wage workers did feel those inflationary pressures but the Wall Street gauges ie. wage inflation never materialized due to the slack in the economy caused by the Great Recession.

 

I will give you credit on that one.  On the other hand your views on how prescient of an economist that Krugman is, not so much.   ?

there may be a slightly different perspective to view this from.

 

if/when the US Dollar loses world reserve status, it will be because a bloc of nations have chosen to look to another for trading purposes, not that another has emerged, is how it will begin. of course the problem will be the confidence and stability of that particular reserve. there have been many attempts at this and there will continue to be many more.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Foxx

[Chef Jim]

2 hours ago, Koko78 said:

 

Didn't he join the IRA?

No it’s because of him we have an IRA that lets people say “***** you!” to RMD’s. 

[/dev/null]

4 hours ago, Koko78 said:

 

Didn't he join the IRA?

 

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

No it’s because of him we have an IRA that lets people say “***** you!” to RMD’s. 

 

I was going to post a snarky response about how IRA was invented as a scam by a famous person named Ira.  But I found searching the internet for famous people named ira is about as successful as searching PPP for a post from Tibs or Busey that isnt 'tarded.

[DC Tom]

52 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

But I found searching the internet for famous people named ira is about as successful as searching PPP for a post from Tibs or Busey that isnt 'tarded.

 

Ira Eaker, Ira Gershwin, Ira Cohen.

[fansince88]

On 5/9/2019 at 12:39 PM, Magox said:

I was looking through some of the predictions from the progressive economic darlings right after Trump had won his election and I thought I'd share them with you.    

Right after Trump had won, not sure if you guys remember but the stock market tanked by close to 1000 points in overnight trading and that prompted Krugman, our favorite economist to write a column.

 

 

Politico came out with an article titled: 

 

Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets, If GOP nominee pulls off a Brexit-like surprise, Wall Street would face a Brexit-like stock plunge.

 

Sounds ominous, lets see what they had to say:

 

 

 

So much scare he says.

 

Well, how about from the Editorial Page of the Washington Post.  Those guys are grounded.   Surely they must have had a reasonable take on what a Trump economy could look like, right?   Right?????   

 

Their headline blared:  A President Trump could destroy the world economy  

 

Yikes!   
 

 

 

What about Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics.   He's one of the lead advisers of the Obama Stimulus package.  Let's see what he said:

 

 

Oh hell, you can just read his drivel/study right here.

 

By the way, Mark Zandi has been and is continuing to be quoted by many mainstream outlets such as CNN, NY times, Politico, WAPO etc etc as if he is some neutral arbiter and he continues to downplay the economy.  

 

In any case, I got a chuckle out of these predictions, I knew they would be waaaay off from day one.    Thought I'd share them with you.

 

 

 

 

You forgot to quote my uncle. He is still telling me to watch the Market. He says it will tell it all.

[Magox]

13 hours ago, Foxx said:

there may be a slightly different perspective to view this from.

 

if/when the US Dollar loses world reserve status, it will be because a bloc of nations have chosen to look to another for trading purposes, not that another has emerged, is how it will begin. of course the problem will be the confidence and stability of that particular reserve. there have been many attempts at this and there will continue to be many more.

There are probably a number of possible scenarios where this could happen but I just don’t see any on the horizon.  I actually used to talk about these potential scenarios and what I believed would have to happen for that to occur.   China would have played a large role in that but the more I see China the less I am convinced that will happen.  
 

The question that keeps coming to me is when the ***** hits the fan, where will everyone park their money?  And I just don’t see anything that even comes close to the viability of US treasuries.   
 

Until there is another viable option, the US can continue to get away with what it has been doing.

 

I could be wrong, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

9 hours ago, fansince88 said:

You forgot to quote my uncle. He is still telling me to watch the Market. He says it will tell it all.

 
Who is your uncle?

[Magox]

14 hours ago, TPS said:

I have to give you credit for helping me work out some of the issues in those old debates, because it eventually led to publishing a book--thanks.

 

As for Krugman, I only focused on his point explaining what was happening to the yield curve, don't lump me in with his other predictions....he is too much influenced by TDS for sure...   

 

Congrats on your book!

 

The problem with dogmas is that when you are beholden to a certain belief it completely makes you oblivious to everything outside of that view.

 

You become beholden to that belief and no matter what the data says even though that data may run counter to your belief they either are ignored or explained away in a matter that dismisses what had just transpired. I remember there was a debate regarding austerity on this board and it wasn’t all that long ago when a number of European countries that were embarking on these initiatives specially the eastern block ones.     Krugman was fixated on this and believed it was going to lead to depression sort of results for these countries.

 

Despite all his hand wringing and dire warnings, they never transpired and in fact led to a more stable sustainable environment that led to good growth levels.     
 

He has actually been wrong quite often.   

[dubs]

37 minutes ago, Magox said:

Congrats on your book!

 

The problem with dogmas is that when you are beholden to a certain belief it completely makes you oblivious to everything outside of that view.

 

You become beholden to that belief and no matter what the data says even though that data may run counter to your belief they either are ignored or explained away in a matter that dismisses what had just transpired. I remember there was a debate regarding austerity on this board and it wasn’t all that long ago when a number of European countries that were embarking on these initiatives specially the eastern block ones.     Krugman was fixated on this and believed it was going to lead to depression sort of results for these countries.

 

Despite all his hand wringing and dire warnings, they never transpired and in fact led to a more stable sustainable environment that led to good growth levels.     
 

He has actually been wrong quite often.   

Krugman actually translates to “dead wrong” in German. 
 

 

[fansince88]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

There are probably a number of possible scenarios where this could happen but I just don’t see any on the horizon.  I actually used to talk about these potential scenarios and what I believed would have to happen for that to occur.   China would have played a large role in that but the more I see China the less I am convinced that will happen.  
 

The question that keeps coming to me is when the ***** hits the fan, where will everyone park their money?  And I just don’t see anything that even comes close to the viability of US treasuries.   
 

Until there is another viable option, the US can continue to get away with what it has been doing.

 

I could be wrong, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

 
Who is your uncle?

Just my uncle. Been going on about how much he hates Trump because he is from Long Island and knows all of his dealings in NYC were crooked. He told me it was a mistake to vote him in and the Stock Market would tell us that. Best mistake I ever made.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

There are probably a number of possible scenarios where this could happen but I just don’t see any on the horizon.  I actually used to talk about these potential scenarios and what I believed would have to happen for that to occur.   China would have played a large role in that but the more I see China the less I am convinced that will happen.  
 

The question that keeps coming to me is when the ***** hits the fan, where will everyone park their money?  And I just don’t see anything that even comes close to the viability of US treasuries.   
 

Until there is another viable option, the US can continue to get away with what it has been doing.

 

I could be wrong, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

 
Who is your uncle?

 

...OMG....hope it ain't "JOE"............

[Chef Jim]

34 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

Just my uncle. Been going on about how much he hates Trump because he is from Long Island and knows all of his dealings in NYC were crooked. He told me it was a mistake to vote him in and the Stock Market would tell us that. Best mistake I ever made.

I “love” people who invest based on the headlines. I’ve turned away a lot of big clients who ask “so how are you investing your clients’ money now?”  Bye bye. 

[fansince88]

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:

I “love” people who invest based on the headlines. I’ve turned away a lot of big clients who ask “so how are you investing your clients’ money now?”  Bye bye. 

I put it in the investments into mutual funds and leave them there. I am a more agressive minded investor in a sense.  If I paid attention and moved money around I would screw things up. So I let the professionals do it. That said, the company I work for buys us stock for our 401k. Last 12 years we saw 18-24% increase (per year) in the comany stock so it is easier to trust others with the money I invest.

Edited December 28, 2019 by fansince88

[TPS]

19 hours ago, Foxx said:

there may be a slightly different perspective to view this from.

 

if/when the US Dollar loses world reserve status, it will be because a bloc of nations have chosen to look to another for trading purposes, not that another has emerged, is how it will begin. of course the problem will be the confidence and stability of that particular reserve. there have been many attempts at this and there will continue to be many more.

Historically, the two currencies that have achieved global reserve status are the pound and dollar.  Britain was the dominant economic and military power until the US took that role after WWII.  The only country that might meet the requirements in the future is China, but we're still a ways off from any change....

[GG]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

Historically, the two currencies that have achieved global reserve status are the pound and dollar.  Britain was the dominant economic and military power until the US took that role after WWII.  The only country that might meet the requirements in the future is China, but we're still a ways off from any change....

 

As a not so wise man once asked - is it a coincidence that the GBP and USD were/are the only reserve monetary currencies the world has ever seen?

[TPS]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

As a not so wise man once asked - is it a coincidence that the GBP and USD were/are the only reserve monetary currencies the world has ever seen?

I suppose one could argue that the Dutch gilder in the 16th and 17th centuries, and maybe even the Spanish escudo for awhile, were international currencies....but global integration and trade doesn't really begin until the industrial revolution. 

[/dev/null]

19 minutes ago, TPS said:

Historically, the two currencies that have achieved global reserve status are the pound and dollar.  Britain was the dominant economic and military power until the US took that role after WWII.  The only country that might meet the requirements in the future is China, but we're still a ways off from any change....

China is closer than most people give them credit.  In addition to their economic boom they have been rapidly building their Naval capabilities and will eventually overtake the US as the dominant power in the Pacific

 

China has been playing the long game while US has been chasing our tail

 

If we were serious about maintaining the USD as world reserve currency, the President should issue a statement that any vessel flying the under the flag of a nation belonging to an alternate reserve currency should no longer expect the protection or support of the US Navy

[RochesterRob]

27 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

China is closer than most people give them credit.  In addition to their economic boom they have been rapidly building their Naval capabilities and will eventually overtake the US as the dominant power in the Pacific

 

China has been playing the long game while US has been chasing our tail

 

If we were serious about maintaining the USD as world reserve currency, the President should issue a statement that any vessel flying the under the flag of a nation belonging to an alternate reserve currency should no longer expect the protection or support of the US Navy

  If we would have let loose the leash Japan would have rebuilt into a major Pacific naval power quite a long time ago.  While that would have led to a tense situation with China we could have pointed out that we don't completely subjugate our allies.

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  If we would have let loose the leash Japan would have rebuilt into a major Pacific naval power quite a long time ago.  While that would have led to a tense situation with China we could have pointed out that we don't completely subjugate our allies.

Japan and Germany should thank their ***** stars that we treated them as well as we did after WW2. I know in the long run it was in our best interest but they came out of that war much better than some others. At the end of the war they were our vanquished enemies not our allies. 

[Foxx]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

There are probably a number of possible scenarios where this could happen but I just don’t see any on the horizon.  I actually used to talk about these potential scenarios and what I believed would have to happen for that to occur.   China would have played a large role in that but the more I see China the less I am convinced that will happen.  
 

The question that keeps coming to me is when the ***** hits the fan, where will everyone park their money?  And I just don’t see anything that even comes close to the viability of US treasuries.   
 

Until there is another viable option, the US can continue to get away with what it has been doing.

 

I could be wrong, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

 
Who is your uncle?

 

1 hour ago, TPS said:

Historically, the two currencies that have achieved global reserve status are the pound and dollar.  Britain was the dominant economic and military power until the US took that role after WWII.  The only country that might meet the requirements in the future is China, but we're still a ways off from any change....

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

[TPS]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

 

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

I agree with most of this

[Foxx]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

I agree with most of this

what i really want to see is one not manipulated by those behind a curtain in a smoke filled room.

 

i know i am off topic a bit but...we do have one such upon the world stage, right now, at this very moment. however, TPTB are doing their utmost to gain control and place all kinds of regulations therein so they can control it. i understand the need for some forms of regulation to protect Joe and Betty Six-pack but there doesn't need to be what they are doing to it. things really need to find their natural equilibrium.

[RochesterRob]

11 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Japan and Germany should thank their ***** stars that we treated them as well as we did after WW2. I know in the long run it was in our best interest but they came out of that war much better than some others. At the end of the war they were our vanquished enemies not our allies. 

  I believe that there was a movie back in the 1980's where a smallish fictional European nation declares war on the US because "it just is not that bad to lose a war to the US" meaning that once that country lost the "war" economic aid would be coming.  Anyways, if I could go back in time I would have told the Kaiser to keep a cool head around 1910 with respect to the British.  Germany really had it won going into the 20th Century and if it could have looked ahead a couple of generations it would have seen the end of colonialism which it never benefitted from anyways.  I know things were a little hot in Berlin due many centuries of other powers keeping the German nation-states divided but the Germans should have foreseen the same effect in response to a conflict between Germany and its allies and the rest of Europe.  While Germany benefitted from post WWII US policy it also lost a lot in the interim between 1914 and 1970.  

[Magox]

13 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

Yeah, I think that would be the most likely scenario.  
 

Nothing short of an economic catastrophe would have to occur, much greater than the Great Recession.   And even during those time periods the US’s dominance with its flight to safety status only strengthens its standing relative to the rest of the world.

 

However it would happen I think we can safely say that there  isn’t anything remotely approaching that in the foreseeable future.

 

 

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I believe that there was a movie back in the 1980's where a smallish fictional European nation declares war on the US because "it just is not that bad to lose a war to the US" meaning that once that country lost the "war" economic aid would be coming.  Anyways, if I could go back in time I would have told the Kaiser to keep a cool head around 1910 with respect to the British.  Germany really had it won going into the 20th Century and if it could have looked ahead a couple of generations it would have seen the end of colonialism which it never benefitted from anyways.  I know things were a little hot in Berlin due many centuries of other powers keeping the German nation-states divided but the Germans should have foreseen the same effect in response to a conflict between Germany and its allies and the rest of Europe.  While Germany benefitted from post WWII US policy it also lost a lot in the interim between 1914 and 1970.  

After WW1 Germany was put into a worse position than before the war and they were ripe for a leader like Hitler to rise up. If we had treated them half as good as we had after WW2 there probably wouldn't have been a WW2.

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

After WW1 Germany was put into a worse position than before the war and they were ripe for a leader like Hitler to rise up. If we had treated them half as good as we had after WW2 there probably wouldn't have been a WW2.

  Despite the many flaws of Woodrow Wilson he was the leader of the only major power that did not want to come down hard on the Germans.  I believe that it was predestined given the attitude by England, France, and Russia towards Central Europe that a treaty would be approved which would be harsh on Germany.  Some reparations were in order but the winners of WWI wanted to economically "nuke" Germany back to the Stone Age because that would have preserved the power order that they were use to.  

[GG]

56 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

 

all cowry shells aside... i think that if/when the rejection of the USD comes, it will be for a 'basket of currencies' or possibly, a 'revolving basket of currencies'. i think the world has come to understand that assigning such a lofty status upon one such currency lends an unfair balance to the financial nature of things. again though, the entire fiat perspective relies 100% on confidence and acceptance. with that said, predicting just where consciousness will focus is a fools errand.

 

one other thing i do believe though is that if/when the USD becomes rejected as the world's defacto currency, at that point, we will begin to see a bifurcated dollar. 

 

all of which is based upon the world moving away from the USD, not the rising of another.

 

That has always been the theory, but practice has proven that it will be virtually impossible for a basket to replace a single currency.

 

The main reason that GBP and USD have become defacto reserve currencies is that they are as close that a paper currency can be to a physical asset that has historically been the reserve.   This is not incidental, because the unwavering support for private property, laws and freedom of exchange underpins the real value of the currencies relative to the worthless paper medium it’s printed on.

 

You will never replicate this set of protections with a basket, unless the basket is comprised of countries who are equally committed to the above economic trinity.  I don’t see that on the horizon at all. 

 

But if the US continues to spiral out of its historic orbit of economic, legal and personal freedoms, then the replacement will go back to a physical reserve, not to another paper currency.  And the world will suck.

[Nanker]

2 hours ago, /dev/null said:

China is closer than most people give them credit.  In addition to their economic boom they have been rapidly building their Naval capabilities and will eventually overtake the US as the dominant power in the Pacific

 

China has been playing the long game while US has been chasing our tail

 

If we were serious about maintaining the USD as world reserve currency, the President should issue a statement that any vessel flying the under the flag of a nation belonging to an alternate reserve currency should no longer expect the protection or support of the US Navy

Oh, I get it. A quid pro quo. 

[/dev/null]

1 hour ago, RochesterRob said:

  I believe that there was a movie back in the 1980's where a smallish fictional European nation declares war on the US because "it just is not that bad to lose a war to the US" meaning that once that country lost the "war" economic aid would be coming. 

 

There was a Pinky & The Brain episode where they pretend to be an island nation threatening war with the United States so they could get billions of dollars in foreign aid

[GG]

1 minute ago, /dev/null said:

 

There was a Pinky & The Brain episode where they pretend to be an island nation threatening war with the United States so they could get billions of dollars in foreign aid

You’re both wrong.  The original was the classic Peter Sellers’ The Mouse that Roared in the ‘60s.

[/dev/null]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

You’re both wrong.  The original was the classic Peter Sellers’ The Mouse that Roared in the ‘60s.

[snafu]

2 hours ago, GG said:

The main reason that GBP and USD have become defacto reserve currencies is that they are as close that a paper currency can be to a physical asset that has historically been the reserve.   This is not incidental, because the unwavering support for private property, laws and freedom of exchange underpins the real value of the currencies relative to the worthless paper medium it’s printed on.

 

This, to me, is probably is probably the biggest reason why nobody is looking to China as a replacement reserve any time soon, no matter how powerful they become economically. 

 

[Nanker]

8 hours ago, /dev/null said:

Nope. 

 

[Tiberius]

On 5/9/2019 at 12:39 PM, Magox said:

I was looking through some of the predictions from the progressive economic darlings right after Trump had won his election and I thought I'd share them with you.    

Right after Trump had won, not sure if you guys remember but the stock market tanked by close to 1000 points in overnight trading and that prompted Krugman, our favorite economist to write a column.

 

 

Politico came out with an article titled: 

 

Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets, If GOP nominee pulls off a Brexit-like surprise, Wall Street would face a Brexit-like stock plunge.

 

Sounds ominous, lets see what they had to say:

 

 

 

So much scare he says.

 

Well, how about from the Editorial Page of the Washington Post.  Those guys are grounded.   Surely they must have had a reasonable take on what a Trump economy could look like, right?   Right?????   

 

Their headline blared:  A President Trump could destroy the world economy  

 

Yikes!   
 

 

 

What about Mark Zandi from Moody's Analytics.   He's one of the lead advisers of the Obama Stimulus package.  Let's see what he said:

 

 

Oh hell, you can just read his drivel/study right here.

 

By the way, Mark Zandi has been and is continuing to be quoted by many mainstream outlets such as CNN, NY times, Politico, WAPO etc etc as if he is some neutral arbiter and he continues to downplay the economy.  

 

In any case, I got a chuckle out of these predictions, I knew they would be waaaay off from day one.    Thought I'd share them with you.

 

 

 

 

Trump said he would balance the budget. Get rid of the debt and have 6% economic growth.. The deficits are over a trillion dollars, interest rates are still low, so why is anyone surprised the Obama prosperity has endured? 

[Koko78]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Trump said he would balance the budget. Get rid of the debt and have 6% economic growth.. The deficits are over a trillion dollars, interest rates are still low, so why is anyone surprised the Obama prosperity has endured? 

 

It only took 8 summers of recovery and a brand new administration for Obama's changes to take effect!

 

PRAISE BE OBAMA!

[GG]

11 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

It only took 8 summers of recovery and a brand new administration for Obama's changes to take effect!

 

PRAISE BE OBAMA!

 

That, and a complete reversal of Obama’s policies.

[Koko78]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

That, and a complete reversal of Obama’s policies.

 

If Obama's administration didn't institute those policies/regulations, there would have been nothing for Trump to reverse to unleash the economy. Therefore, it is all due to Obama.

 

PRAISE BE OBAMA!