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OldTimeAFLGuy

Duke Williams-" I Can Play If I Stay Out Of Trouble"

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The two Eskimos fans in my life are hoping every day he returns to Edmonton shortly.

 

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1 hour ago, Turk71 said:

I know his history, but to be 26 now and say "if he can stay out of trouble" seems ridiculous to me. Just prove you can play and stay out of trouble. For him to say 'if' implies he somehow has no control of his actions.

I actually think there is some of that.  That comment makes him sound like an alcoholic - I'm never recovered and I'm fine if I stay on course.  And I don't think it was just the violent episode.  He admits that he kind of quit at the NFL level, and he didn't really know what it would take when he got to Canada.  So I think he's saying that he'll be fine so long as he stays committed.  

 

The reason I think it isn't much of an issue is because he understands now what it takes, and everyone in Canada says he was an unbelievable teammate - really tough competitor, completely dedicated to getting better and winning.   

 

The reason I think it isn't foolish to think he can have an impact is because he has the talent to be thought of as a first or second round pick AND he isn't a rookie coming in with that talent.  He's a guy who's played committed, serious professional football for two years at a very high level.  Yes, it was Canada, but it was serious football and his talent showed.  He learned routes, he learned checks, he learned defenses.   He know HOW to do it.   He has more to learn, but he isn't a rookie.  

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36 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The reason I think it isn't foolish to think he can have an impact is because he has the talent to be thought of as a first or second round pick AND he isn't a rookie coming in with that talent.  He's a guy who's played committed, serious professional football for two years at a very high level.  Yes, it was Canada, but it was serious football and his talent showed.  He learned routes, he learned checks, he learned defenses.   He know HOW to do it.   He has more to learn, but he isn't a rookie.  

 

Well he is not a rookie but we have heard nothing about him being paid more than a rookie so he is a player with more experience than a rookie and who Bills can hold contract on for multiple years to have him develop more.

 

He needed follow rules for players for two years and not all players can.  I imagine they are about the same as it is for US other than beer is its own food group.

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3 hours ago, billsredneck1 said:

this guy is gonna be a stud wr for us.  period. i am so psyched...brown/ duke/ jones/beasely foster and combined with kroft and knox...not to mention shady out of the backfield,

we are gonna be unstoppable.  i'm looking for a big payday this year....and our defense is gonna be badass...

That's a lot of optimism. Better than the alternative, for sure.

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16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I agree with your initial assessment: you absolutely got the rose-colored glasses on.

 

And that's ok.  Optimism is good.  If we know anything, it's that as Bills fans, we better be optimists or we're bound for the Pit of Misery.

 

As far as the last sentence, maybe that's something you say.  It's not something I say.  Zay has proven he can run routes, make catches, and block in the NFL.  After this guy gets here and shows something, we can decide if he's better at preseason and even then, we won't know if he's better when it's for real.  Until then, Zay did more in college, Zay did more at the combine, and Zay never showed his stuff in the CFL 'cuz Zay stuck with his first NFL team. 

But it's all good.  You Do You.  It's fun to watch, actually.

 

 

Congratulations!

 

Yeah I am not sure what the hate on Jones is on this board...him and Foster both came on pretty strong towards the end of the year last year...from Week 10 on, Jones was 37th in terms of production in the NFL at the WR spot, Foster was top 15...that's pretty damn good considering 3 WR sets are almost the base formation these days which means there are 96 WR's they are up against. Also note that many of these players had 8 games of work while Foster and jones only had 7 to put up their numbers.

 

Receiving Stats since Week 10, sorted by Yards(from Pro Football Reference)

      Receiving
Rk Player Pos Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt
1 T.Y. Hilton WR 28 2018 NFL CLT 8 7 1 0 73 50 917 18.34 2 68.5% 12.56
2 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 21 2018 NFL PIT 8 4 4 0 88 58 754 13.00 5 65.9% 8.57
3 Julio Jones WR 29 2018 NFL ATL 8 3 5 0 79 53 744 14.04 7 67.1% 9.42
4 Mike Evans WR 25 2018 NFL TAM 8 2 6 0 61 39 738 18.92 4 63.9% 12.10
5 Tyreek Hill WR 24 2018 NFL KAN 7 4 3 0 67 39 705 18.08 5 58.2% 10.52
6 Antonio Brown WR 30 2018 NFL PIT 7 3 4 0 78 53 703 13.26 6 67.9% 9.01
7 DeAndre Hopkins WR 26 2018 NFL HTX 7 5 2 0 73 52 678 13.04 4 71.2% 9.29
8 Amari Cooper WR 24 2018 NFL DAL 8 7 1 0 68 48 667 13.90 5 70.6% 9.81
9 Davante Adams WR 25 2018 NFL GNB 7 3 4 0 82 53 656 12.38 6 64.6% 8.00
10 Keenan Allen WR 26 2018 NFL SDG 8 6 2 0 70 50 566 11.32 5 71.4% 8.09
11 Tyler Lockett WR 26 2018 NFL SEA 8 6 2 0 33 29 549 18.93 4 87.9% 16.64
12 Kenny Golladay WR 25 2018 NFL DET 7 2 5 0 71 37 540 14.59 2 52.1% 7.61
13 Julian Edelman WR 32 2018 NFL NWE 7 4 3 0 64 43 528 12.28 4 67.2% 8.25
14 Michael Thomas WR 25 2018 NFL NOR 8 6 2 0 68 55 525 9.55 4 80.9% 7.72
15 Robert Foster WR 24 2018 NFL BUF 7 4 3 0 35 25 511 20.44 3 71.4% 14.60
16 Alshon Jeffery WR 28 2018 NFL PHI 8 5 3 0 48 36 502 13.94 2 75.0% 10.46
17 D.J. Moore WR 21 2018 NFL CAR 8 1 7 0 56 36 491 13.64 1 64.3% 8.77
18 Robert Woods WR 26 2018 NFL RAM 7 5 2 0 56 35 476 13.60 3 62.5% 8.50
19 Allen Robinson WR 25 2018 NFL CHI 7 6 1 0 51 30 469 15.63 2 58.8% 9.20
20 Mohamed Sanu WR 29 2018 NFL ATL 8 3 5 0 54 38 469 12.34 1 70.4% 8.69
Rk Player Pos Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt
21 Chris Godwin WR 22 2018 NFL TAM 8 2 6 0 48 29 462 15.93 3 60.4% 9.63
22 Brandin Cooks WR 25 2018 NFL RAM 7 5 2 0 57 39 447 11.46 2 68.4% 7.84
23 Corey Davis WR 23 2018 NFL OTI 8 5 3 0 46 29 440 15.17 3 63.0% 9.57
24 Adam Humphries WR 25 2018 NFL TAM 8 2 6 0 55 41 438 10.68 3 74.5% 7.96
25 Stefon Diggs WR 24 2018 NFL MIN 7 3 4 0 64 44 434 9.86 5 68.8% 6.78
26 Adam Thielen WR 28 2018 NFL MIN 7 3 4 0 50 35 426 12.17 2 70.0% 8.52
27 Tyler Boyd WR 23 2018 NFL CIN 6 1 5 0 42 27 408 15.11 2 64.3% 9.71
28 Robby Anderson WR 25 2018 NFL NYJ 6 1 5 0 51 29 406 14.00 3 56.9% 7.96
29 Jarvis Landry WR 25 2018 NFL CLE 7 5 2 0 48 26 398 15.31 2 54.2% 8.29
30 Curtis Samuel WR 22 2018 NFL CAR 8 1 7 0 53 31 388 12.52 3 58.5% 7.32
31 Jordy Nelson WR 33 2018 NFL RAI 7 2 5 0 50 38 386 10.16 0 76.0% 7.72
32 Doug Baldwin WR 30 2018 NFL SEA 7 5 2 0 49 32 382 11.94 5 65.3% 7.80
33 Larry Fitzgerald WR 35 2018 NFL CRD 8 1 7 0 57 35 377 10.77 4 61.4% 6.61
34 Dante Pettis WR 23 2018 NFL SFO 6 2 4 0 37 24 371 15.46 4 64.9% 10.03
35 Nelson Agholor WR 25 2018 NFL PHI 8 5 3 0 36 23 364 15.83 3 63.9% 10.11
36 Calvin Ridley WR 23 2018 NFL ATL 8 3 5 0 48 31 358 11.55 3 64.6% 7.46
37 Zay Jones WR 23 2018 NFL BUF 7 4 3 0 54 27 353 13.07 6 50.0% 6.54
38 Josh Doctson WR 25 2018 NFL WAS 8 2 6 0 43 25 342 13.68 1 58.1% 7.95
39 Sterling Shepard WR 25 2018 NFL NYG 8 4 4 0 48 26 330 12.69 2 54.2% 6.88
40 Mike Williams WR 24 2018 NFL SDG 8 6 2 0 34 25 326 13.04 5 73.5% 9.59
Edited by matter2003

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40 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Yeah I am not sure what the hate on Jones is on this board...him and Foster both came on pretty strong towards the end of the year last year...from Week 10 on, Jones was 37th in terms of production in the NFL at the WR spot, Foster was top 15...that's pretty damn good considering 3 WR sets are almost the base formation these days which means there are 96 WR's they are up against. Also note that many of these players had 8 games of work while Foster and jones only had 7 to put up their numbers.

 

Receiving Stats since Week 10, sorted by Yards(from Pro Football Reference)

      Receiving
Rk Player Pos Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt
1 T.Y. Hilton WR 28 2018 NFL CLT 8 7 1 0 73 50 917 18.34 2 68.5% 12.56
2 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 21 2018 NFL PIT 8 4 4 0 88 58 754 13.00 5 65.9% 8.57
3 Julio Jones WR 29 2018 NFL ATL 8 3 5 0 79 53 744 14.04 7 67.1% 9.42
4 Mike Evans WR 25 2018 NFL TAM 8 2 6 0 61 39 738 18.92 4 63.9% 12.10
5 Tyreek Hill WR 24 2018 NFL KAN 7 4 3 0 67 39 705 18.08 5 58.2% 10.52
6 Antonio Brown WR 30 2018 NFL PIT 7 3 4 0 78 53 703 13.26 6 67.9% 9.01
7 DeAndre Hopkins WR 26 2018 NFL HTX 7 5 2 0 73 52 678 13.04 4 71.2% 9.29
8 Amari Cooper WR 24 2018 NFL DAL 8 7 1 0 68 48 667 13.90 5 70.6% 9.81
9 Davante Adams WR 25 2018 NFL GNB 7 3 4 0 82 53 656 12.38 6 64.6% 8.00
10 Keenan Allen WR 26 2018 NFL SDG 8 6 2 0 70 50 566 11.32 5 71.4% 8.09
11 Tyler Lockett WR 26 2018 NFL SEA 8 6 2 0 33 29 549 18.93 4 87.9% 16.64
12 Kenny Golladay WR 25 2018 NFL DET 7 2 5 0 71 37 540 14.59 2 52.1% 7.61
13 Julian Edelman WR 32 2018 NFL NWE 7 4 3 0 64 43 528 12.28 4 67.2% 8.25
14 Michael Thomas WR 25 2018 NFL NOR 8 6 2 0 68 55 525 9.55 4 80.9% 7.72
15 Robert Foster WR 24 2018 NFL BUF 7 4 3 0 35 25 511 20.44 3 71.4% 14.60
16 Alshon Jeffery WR 28 2018 NFL PHI 8 5 3 0 48 36 502 13.94 2 75.0% 10.46
17 D.J. Moore WR 21 2018 NFL CAR 8 1 7 0 56 36 491 13.64 1 64.3% 8.77
18 Robert Woods WR 26 2018 NFL RAM 7 5 2 0 56 35 476 13.60 3 62.5% 8.50
19 Allen Robinson WR 25 2018 NFL CHI 7 6 1 0 51 30 469 15.63 2 58.8% 9.20
20 Mohamed Sanu WR 29 2018 NFL ATL 8 3 5 0 54 38 469 12.34 1 70.4% 8.69
Rk Player Pos Age Year Lg Tm G W L T Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt
21 Chris Godwin WR 22 2018 NFL TAM 8 2 6 0 48 29 462 15.93 3 60.4% 9.63
22 Brandin Cooks WR 25 2018 NFL RAM 7 5 2 0 57 39 447 11.46 2 68.4% 7.84
23 Corey Davis WR 23 2018 NFL OTI 8 5 3 0 46 29 440 15.17 3 63.0% 9.57
24 Adam Humphries WR 25 2018 NFL TAM 8 2 6 0 55 41 438 10.68 3 74.5% 7.96
25 Stefon Diggs WR 24 2018 NFL MIN 7 3 4 0 64 44 434 9.86 5 68.8% 6.78
26 Adam Thielen WR 28 2018 NFL MIN 7 3 4 0 50 35 426 12.17 2 70.0% 8.52
27 Tyler Boyd WR 23 2018 NFL CIN 6 1 5 0 42 27 408 15.11 2 64.3% 9.71
28 Robby Anderson WR 25 2018 NFL NYJ 6 1 5 0 51 29 406 14.00 3 56.9% 7.96
29 Jarvis Landry WR 25 2018 NFL CLE 7 5 2 0 48 26 398 15.31 2 54.2% 8.29
30 Curtis Samuel WR 22 2018 NFL CAR 8 1 7 0 53 31 388 12.52 3 58.5% 7.32
31 Jordy Nelson WR 33 2018 NFL RAI 7 2 5 0 50 38 386 10.16 0 76.0% 7.72
32 Doug Baldwin WR 30 2018 NFL SEA 7 5 2 0 49 32 382 11.94 5 65.3% 7.80
33 Larry Fitzgerald WR 35 2018 NFL CRD 8 1 7 0 57 35 377 10.77 4 61.4% 6.61
34 Dante Pettis WR 23 2018 NFL SFO 6 2 4 0 37 24 371 15.46 4 64.9% 10.03
35 Nelson Agholor WR 25 2018 NFL PHI 8 5 3 0 36 23 364 15.83 3 63.9% 10.11
36 Calvin Ridley WR 23 2018 NFL ATL 8 3 5 0 48 31 358 11.55 3 64.6% 7.46
37 Zay Jones WR 23 2018 NFL BUF 7 4 3 0 54 27 353 13.07 6 50.0% 6.54
38 Josh Doctson WR 25 2018 NFL WAS 8 2 6 0 43 25 342 13.68 1 58.1% 7.95
39 Sterling Shepard WR 25 2018 NFL NYG 8 4 4 0 48 26 330 12.69 2 54.2% 6.88
40 Mike Williams WR 24 2018 NFL SDG 8 6 2 0 34 25 326 13.04 5 73.5% 9.59

 

Thanks for the fact infusion.  I think the above is actually a basis for dissing on Jones.  The "hate" goes something like this:

1) Bills plan to improve WR in FA therefore we signed John Brown and Cole Beasley because we expect them to be better than anything we got on the roster at present.  #1 and #2 WR.

2) Foster had more yards and a higher catch % so Foster > Jones

3) Therefore Jones is at best, the #4 WR on the roster and if any of the new guys like Williams or Sills live up to ther college promise, he's gonna be gone

 

I'm often rightly tagged as being a stats geek - I own to it myself - but I believe this line of thinking emerges from not carefully watching the details of the passing game.  Many of Foster's receptions were "whistle blows, run like hell, catch the ball" affairs.  Many of Zay Jones receptions were much higher degree of difficulty - over the middle, or in traffic.  He didn't get looks as often as he got open, I think reflecting Allen's hesitation to make some of the throws, and many of the balls that came his way were off target, limiting his ability to gain YAC.  It's entirely possible that we'll trade Zay Jones (it would reflect a pattern of WR evaluation by our FO) but if so I think we'll watch him Robert Woods on us.

 

I said this elsewhere but I'll repeat: I think his performace in the first Jets game with Barkley throwing to him was not an accident.  Given a vet NFL QB who can still make the throws and is confident in what he sees to pull the trigger on time, Jones was where he was supposed to be and made the plays.  Jones is a decent blocker, as well.  He doesn't level, but he gets in the way and interferes or clears out space at the 2nd level.  This was under-appreciated because our RB seldom got there last year to take advantage of it.

 

As for John Brown and Cole Beasley, they've hopefully got more left than last preseason's additions of Jeremy Kerley or Terrelle Pryor or the previous preseason's additions of Andre Holmes, Deonte Thompson, and (attempted) addition of Anquan Boldin - but they're in the same age range where maybe they've got it left in the tank, maybe they don't.  I think they were signed because they were the best available guys at the price we were willing to pay, and because McBeane hopes they are professionals who will run their routes consistently and correctly all day every day and set a standard for the other guys.

I don't see anyone as a "shoo in" for a particular role going into camp with the exception of Roberts (whose KR/PR role is clear) and possibly Beasley (who pulled down a relatively large guaranteed contract).  It will depend upon who gets open and catches the ball the most, as well as upon how well Allen has really progressed as a pro QB.

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22 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

Yeah I am not sure what the hate on Jones is on this board.

I don't hate him.   I have been a Zay defender since I came to this board.   

 

What I'm saying is that he could be a victim of the process that McBeane are running.  They want competition at all positions, and 2019 is the first year where they have assembled enough players to create competition.   And they are building with a serious eye to the future; that is, personnel decisions are not made strictly on what makes the team better for 2019.  2020 and 2021 are always on their radar.   

 

I don't think Zay's done a lot to stand out.  All he's done is be the best of a pretty bad collection of receivers.   Nobody at any time in 2018 was saying, "Zay's a keeper."  Compare him to Milano, for example.   Milano makes things happen.  Nobody said that about Zay last season.  

 

Zay's problem isn't so much whether he's good enough to make the team in 2019.   He clearly is.   His problem is that he isn't clearly good enough, not yet, to make the team in 2020.  How do I know?  Because McBeane will continue to bring in competition at all positions, including wide receiver.   

 

And his problem is whether this year he can make the top 3 receivers in terms of snaps.   If he isn't in the top 3, he isn't very valuable to the team.   Think about it:  If Brown, Beasley and Foster are top three (IF - I don't know if Foster can make it), then Zay becomes something like the 45th most important guy on a 53-man roster.   Why?   Well, Roberts is more important, because of his kick returning.   So that means in importance to the team, Zay is at best the 5th most important receiver on the roster.  There are 7 or 8 offensive linemen ahead of him, 6 to 8 defensive linemen ahead of him, 4 or 5 linebackers, 6 DBs, a punter, a place kicker, a long snapper, 4 running backs, a couple of special teamers, 3 tight ends.   Your fifth receiver just isn't a very important guy, and there isn't much difference between your fifth and your sixth.  

 

Now think about McBeane.  If Foster becomes their number three, then Zay just isn't a key man on the team.  They're mantra is continuous improvement, so they're looking at Zay and his competition in terms of their potential to improve and become an impact player.   That's when Zay is in trouble, because he just hasn't such much to make anyone think that they HAVE to have him.  It's all about who steps up, and who has the potential to step up.  As much as I like him and root for him, I'm not sure Zay does very well in that competition.  

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13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks for the fact infusion.  I think the above is actually a basis for dissing on Jones.  The "hate" goes something like this:

1) Bills plan to improve WR in FA therefore we signed John Brown and Cole Beasley because we expect them to be better than anything we got on the roster at present.  #1 and #2 WR.

2) Foster had more yards and a higher catch % so Foster > Jones

3) Therefore Jones is at best, the #4 WR on the roster and if any of the new guys like Williams or Sills live up to ther college promise, he's gonna be gone

 

I'm often rightly tagged as being a stats geek - I own to it myself - but I believe this line of thinking emerges from not carefully watching the details of the passing game.  Many of Foster's receptions were "whistle blows, run like hell, catch the ball" affairs.  Many of Zay Jones receptions were much higher degree of difficulty - over the middle, or in traffic.  He didn't get looks as often as he got open, I think reflecting Allen's hesitation to make some of the throws, and many of the balls that came his way were off target, limiting his ability to gain YAC.  It's entirely possible that we'll trade Zay Jones (it would reflect a pattern of WR evaluation by our FO) but if so I think we'll watch him Robert Woods on us.

 

I said this elsewhere but I'll repeat: I think his performace in the first Jets game with Barkley throwing to him was not an accident.  Given a vet NFL QB who can still make the throws and is confident in what he sees to pull the trigger on time, Jones was where he was supposed to be and made the plays.  Jones is a decent blocker, as well.  He doesn't level, but he gets in the way and interferes or clears out space at the 2nd level.  This was under-appreciated because our RB seldom got there last year to take advantage of it.

 

As for John Brown and Cole Beasley, they've hopefully got more left than last preseason's additions of Jeremy Kerley or Terrelle Pryor or the previous preseason's additions of Andre Holmes, Deonte Thompson, and (attempted) addition of Anquan Boldin - but they're in the same age range where maybe they've got it left in the tank, maybe they don't.  I think they were signed because they were the best available guys at the price we were willing to pay, and because McBeane hopes they are professionals who will run their routes consistently and correctly all day every day and set a standard for the other guys.

I don't see anyone as a "shoo in" going into camp.  It will depend upon who gets open and catches the ball the most, as well as upon how well Allen has really progressed as a pro QB.

This is good analysis, although I think that several pages back you said Brown, Beasley and Roberts ARE shoo-ins.  Just pointing it out, not arguing about that.   I don't think anyone's guaranteed a slot, but I will be surprised if any of those three don't make it.  

 

You're right about Foster and Jones last season.  As we've said, and I think you agree if Foster makes the next step, he can take the second wideout spot from Zay, leaving Zay #4.  I'm NOT saying Foster will do that, only that he could.   I think Zay's in a real fight for the #3 spot, because the coaches certainly would prefer Foster's speed in the lineup, if he can do the other things he needs to do.  And once Zay falls to 4, he's actually 5 because of Roberts, and the 5th receiver on almost any team just isn't all that important. 

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21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

(...)

And his problem is whether this year he can make the top 3 receivers in terms of snaps.   If he isn't in the top 3, he isn't very valuable to the team.   Think about it:  If Brown, Beasley and Foster are top three (IF - I don't know if Foster can make it), then Zay becomes something like the 45th most important guy on a 53-man roster.  

 

It became clear you were totally entrenched in your viewpoint a few posts back where you said:

 

On 5/4/2019 at 5:22 PM, Shaw66 said:

What you say makes some sense, but not enough to convince me. 

 

So I'm not trying to convince you, but I think everyone needs to at least look at how Beasley and Brown's contracts are structured.  After this season, Brown has $3.2M guaranteed.  He has half a million dollars PER YEAR tied up in game-day roster bonuses - $1.5M overall.  That the Bills did this, and that Brown accepted it, speaks to his past history.

 

What is that?  He has sickle cell trait.  After a great 2015 season, he became plagued with nagging injuries and lost his starting slot in 2016 and 2017, having hamstring, quadriceps, back, and toe injuries.  Brown says the sickle cell trait wasn't a cause, but that injury history and the question marks around whether his genetic profile is a cause, is why a guy with a 1000+ yd season and a good excuse in QB play, signed a 1 yr prove-it deal with the Ravens last year.  It's probably why the Bills tied up a bunch of his money in per-game bonuses.

 

Brown's production fell off dramatically in the latter half of the season.  "Sure" one says, "when LJax took over at QB".  Except, LJax took over as starter Week 10, and Brown's production plummeted after week 7.   He stayed off the injury report, but one has to wonder.

 

Beasley's contract, OTOH, is clearly structured like a guy we expect to keep for a while.

 

Bottom line: you're creating this whole logic train based on a speculative, and potentially flawed, series of premises.  Over and out.

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24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is good analysis, although I think that several pages back you said Brown, Beasley and Roberts ARE shoo-ins.  Just pointing it out, not arguing about that.   I don't think anyone's guaranteed a slot, but I will be surprised if any of those three don't make it. 

 

You're absolutely right, and me bad: I wrote confusingly.  What I meant was that no one is a "shoo in" for a particular WR ranking or role, and I edited it " with the exception of Roberts (whose KR/PR role is clear) and possibly Beasley (who pulled down a relatively large guaranteed contract) " probably as you were replying.

 

I am pretty confident Beasley, Brown, and Roberts will all make the roster barring IR.  If they don't, it would truly be a most embarrassing (further) black mark for Beane and his WR talent e v a l.  I also think Zay Jones and Foster will make the roster if they come close to picking up where they left off last year.  (If they slack or are sloppy, no promises).  That leaves possibly one roster slot and one PS slot for the rest of the WR crew, again, barring injury.
 

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You're right about Foster and Jones last season.  As we've said, and I think you agree if Foster makes the next step, he can take the second wideout spot from Zay, leaving Zay #4.  I'm NOT saying Foster will do that, only that he could.   I think Zay's in a real fight for the #3 spot, because the coaches certainly would prefer Foster's speed in the lineup, if he can do the other things he needs to do.  And once Zay falls to 4, he's actually 5 because of Roberts, and the 5th receiver on almost any team just isn't all that important. 

 

Foster must take a big step in several areas to move up over Zay: 1) he needs to dramatically improve his ability to block.  Daboll demands blocking chops from his WR.  They don't have to level guys, but they do have to get in the way and/or effectively "sell" a route to clear out space at the 2nd level 2) he needs to develop a more complete route tree.  I'm not saying he can't, but I'm saying perceiving him as a shoo-in to take these steps next year is highly speculative.

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't hate him.   I have been a Zay defender since I came to this board.   

 

What I'm saying is that he could be a victim of the process that McBeane are running.  They want competition at all positions, and 2019 is the first year where they have assembled enough players to create competition.   And they are building with a serious eye to the future; that is, personnel decisions are not made strictly on what makes the team better for 2019.  2020 and 2021 are always on their radar.   

 

I don't think Zay's done a lot to stand out.  All he's done is be the best of a pretty bad collection of receivers.   Nobody at any time in 2018 was saying, "Zay's a keeper."  Compare him to Milano, for example.   Milano makes things happen.  Nobody said that about Zay last season.  

 

Zay's problem isn't so much whether he's good enough to make the team in 2019.   He clearly is.   His problem is that he isn't clearly good enough, not yet, to make the team in 2020.  How do I know?  Because McBeane will continue to bring in competition at all positions, including wide receiver.   

 

And his problem is whether this year he can make the top 3 receivers in terms of snaps.   If he isn't in the top 3, he isn't very valuable to the team.   Think about it:  If Brown, Beasley and Foster are top three (IF - I don't know if Foster can make it), then Zay becomes something like the 45th most important guy on a 53-man roster.   Why?   Well, Roberts is more important, because of his kick returning.   So that means in importance to the team, Zay is at best the 5th most important receiver on the roster.  There are 7 or 8 offensive linemen ahead of him, 6 to 8 defensive linemen ahead of him, 4 or 5 linebackers, 6 DBs, a punter, a place kicker, a long snapper, 4 running backs, a couple of special teamers, 3 tight ends.   Your fifth receiver just isn't a very important guy, and there isn't much difference between your fifth and your sixth.  

 

Now think about McBeane.  If Foster becomes their number three, then Zay just isn't a key man on the team.  They're mantra is continuous improvement, so they're looking at Zay and his competition in terms of their potential to improve and become an impact player.   That's when Zay is in trouble, because he just hasn't such much to make anyone think that they HAVE to have him.  It's all about who steps up, and who has the potential to step up.  As much as I like him and root for him, I'm not sure Zay does very well in that competition.  

But i think the issue is we are assuming he has reached his peak potential and won't get any better. I think thats a little ridiculous. Many WR(see Eric Moulds) didn't do much their first 2 years and then busted out in year 3...am I predicting that? No, but i think he will improve quite a bit even over last year...I think 70 catches and 900 yards isnt out of the question this year.

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On ‎5‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 9:04 AM, The Wiz said:

It wasn't until he punched the fourth guy that he started to question if that's the type of person he is or not. 

 

 

I believe his epiphany came mid swing but it was too late to pull that 4th punch. If only he'd been able to pull that 4th punch

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7 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

I believe his epiphany came mid swing but it was too late to pull that 4th punch. If only he'd been able to pull that 4th punch

At the very least at least we know he has good commitment when he sets goals.

Edited by The Wiz
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10 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

I believe his epiphany came mid swing but it was too late to pull that 4th punch. If only he'd been able to pull that 4th punch

Chuck Norris could have!

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4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You're absolutely right, and me bad: I wrote confusingly.  What I meant was that no one is a "shoo in" for a particular WR ranking or role, and I edited it " with the exception of Roberts (whose KR/PR role is clear) and possibly Beasley (who pulled down a relatively large guaranteed contract) " probably as you were replying.

 

I am pretty confident Beasley, Brown, and Roberts will all make the roster barring IR.  If they don't, it would truly be a most embarrassing (further) black mark for Beane and his WR talent e v a l.  I also think Zay Jones and Foster will make the roster if they come close to picking up where they left off last year.  (If they slack or are sloppy, no promises).  That leaves possibly one roster slot and one PS slot for the rest of the WR crew, again, barring injury.
 

 

Foster must take a big step in several areas to move up over Zay: 1) he needs to dramatically improve his ability to block.  Daboll demands blocking chops from his WR.  They don't have to level guys, but they do have to get in the way and/or effectively "sell" a route to clear out space at the 2nd level 2) he needs to develop a more complete route tree.  I'm not saying he can't, but I'm saying perceiving him as a shoo-in to take these steps next year is highly speculative.

Responding to this and your earlier post.   I'm not totally entrenched at all.   I'm not saying Zay isn't going to make the team.  I'm saying I can see the scenario, actually multiple scenarios under which he doesn't make the team.

 

And I agree with you, there are multiple scenarios where he does make the time and is a significant contributor.  You're correct about Foster taking the next step, and you're right about Beasley and Brown both being less than certain to be the "answer" or a significant part of the answer.   I don't know what's going to happen. 

 

After I wrote my last post, I went out for a while.  While I was driving I was thinking about it, and I think where you and I really differ is our view of Jones.   You said a few posts back (maybe yesterday) that the Bills may be surprised to find that Zay is the next Robert Woods if they let him go (trade or cut).   That's where we disagree.   I don't see him ever becoming Robert Woods.   I don't see him as having shown in his first two years any of the potential Woods showed in his first two years, so I don't see how he's ever going to be that kind of complete #2.  My argument in all of this is based on that view of Zay.  If McDermott sees Zay as I do, I think Zay has a real fight on his hands, because it means he can't add much to the team this year or in the future.  If McD sees the potential you see, then Zay's essentially a lock to make the team.  I'd never let him go after two years if I thought he was on the path to becoming Woods.  

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3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

But i think the issue is we are assuming he has reached his peak potential and won't get any better. I think thats a little ridiculous. Many WR(see Eric Moulds) didn't do much their first 2 years and then busted out in year 3...am I predicting that? No, but i think he will improve quite a bit even over last year...I think 70 catches and 900 yards isnt out of the question this year.

As I just wrote to Hapless, yes, I think that is the issue.   No, I'm not saying that he won't improve.  My view is that although he may improve, he's not going to improve so much that he's a significant contributor to the team.  How do I know that?  I don't, it's just my opinion.   He just hasn't shown me much to get excited about.   He'll be a nice receiver, have a 6 or 8 year career, maybe a little longer, but he isn't going to strike fear in the hearts of anyone. 

 

 Comparisons to Moulds just don't make much sense to to me.   He was a a top talent coming out of college, he was a serious kickoff return threat in his first couple of years.   His talent was obvious, as well as his size.   Jones isn't anything like that.   Lots of people would have been surprised if Moulds didn't develop into a valuable player, because his special qualities were on display his first two years.   Very few people will be surprised if Zay doesn't succeed.   My cousin told me early last season that Zay didn't even deserve to be in the league.   I disagreed with him, but nobody was saying that about Moulds in his second season.   

 

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Give Duke one play at corner, if Gronk un-retires.

 

Four people is pretty damn impressive.

 

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1st time I’ve read this thread from beginning to now. Many insightful posts and maturely contributed by all. 

Dukes’ pros & cons, measurables, how he stacks up vs Bills competition. Thanks all!

 

So, after combining everyone’s input on Duke, here’s my take;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fodder.

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