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John Wawrow: "better chance of the Bills moving up for a player than moving back"


Logic

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11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Doug Whaley is such an idiot for trading up in the draft.

 

McBeane are geniuses for trading up for the 3rd time in 3 years!


You are such a model of consistency. Like a McDonalds or a Tim Horton's.

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3 minutes ago, Logic said:


You are such a model of consistency. Like a McDonalds or a Tim Horton's.

You’re right and thank you.  I hate double standards.  The world would be better if people were more consistent.  

 

I generally trading up for every non qb is a mistake.  People ripped Whaley for this.  

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11 hours ago, john wawrow said:

 

i’m not at all surprised how much this has taken off and been to some degree twisted to satisfy some folks’ narratives and hopes.

 

the significance of my initial tweet is, in reality, more of a tidbit and not five-alarm fire that came up during a recent conversation.

 

again, as i’ve posted here an on the tweeter: 

 

i dont know what chance of a trade will happen. simply, a trade up is more likely (odds? dunno) than down in first round.

 

jw

 

Thanks for stirring the pot.  It's fun for us fans to speculate!

One thing that is becoming apparent about Beane is he pursues every option.

I think he would prefer to stay at 9 BUT I'm sure he will keep a close eye on the 1st 4 picks and see what happens.

As other have said it probably all depend on the QB picks and the hope another GM or two does something boneheaded.

 

Depending on his board and how the picks start to unravel I can see him moving as high as #5 (Tampa) or as low as #15 (Wash).

 

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5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re right and thank you.  I hate double standards.  The world would be better if people were more consistent.  

 

I generally trading up for every non qb is a mistake.  People ripped Whaley for this.  

I think you have to take it on a case by case basis. There are many factors, but Whaley’s move in a WR rich draft and with no proven QB should be ripped. 

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12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re right and thank you.  I hate double standards.  The world would be better if people were more consistent.  

 

I generally trading up for every non qb is a mistake.  People ripped Whaley for this.  

I'm okay with going for a pass rusher

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It's a deep draft, so they are probably wise to keep their #9 pick and trade up into the late 1st rd. - early 3rd rd. range. The extra draft picks they have to trade with probably won't get them above 9 anyway. 

 

Based on draft pick trade values, they could potentially trade their 2nd and 3rd, plus maybe throw in one of their lower picks to get into the bottom 10 of the 1st round.

 

Whatever the case may be, I hope they trade the extra 4th, 5th, and 7th rounders for something. They need talented guys more than they need warm bodies. 

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19 hours ago, familykwi said:

Heh.  Sorry John.  I live in San Diego.  Where would I see your stuff?

 

PK

I've lived in So Cal all my life and ever since I've joined this board I knew who he was. Just an fyi...I have always liked his approach.

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4 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I'm okay with going for a pass rusher

Pass rusher might be the only other somewhat acceptable trade up position.  But I don’t like trades for a couple of reason: 1 - draft picks are lottery tickets.  The more picks you have, the more likely you are to hit the jackpot.  2 - what would Belichick do?  The answer is normally trade back and get more picks.

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25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

People ripped Whaley for this.  

 

They ripped him for trading away a future 1st rounder for a WR. If we trade a 2nd or 3rd for Oliver that is not comparable. Personally I would do it for the 3rd and a 4th thrown in. Not sure about the 2nd but I wouldn't hate it. He has the potential to be a game changing talent and we wouldn't be sacrificing the future at all.

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2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Pass rusher might be the only other somewhat acceptable trade up position.  But I don’t like trades for a couple of reason: 1 - draft picks are lottery tickets.  The more picks you have, the more likely you are to hit the jackpot.  2 - what would Belichick do?  The answer is normally trade back and get more picks.

But does it really ? Or is this just some sports talking head drivel to drive conversation. Has Belichicks drafting been above the NFL average in the last decade or so? Having multiple middle round picks doesn’t increase the chance that any single player will be good. Are draft picks like lottery tickets ? ( they say having more tickets in the powerball doesn’t increase your odds of winning). Or are draft picks simply currency to move around the board and get the players you want ? It’s a legitimate debate, and I’m not sure even those who fall into one camp or another actually have the answer. 

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19 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I think you have to take it on a case by case basis. There are many factors, but Whaley’s move in a WR rich draft and with no proven QB should be ripped. 

Fair but Watkins was fair and away the best in that draft (ODJ wasn’t that great in college. Personally, I wanted Evans) and he was getting a receiver for his 2nd year qb.  If the Bills did that for Allen, I won’t love it but I would understand.  But I certainly get why people didn’t like him doing.

 

But we traded up for Zay and Edmunds when arguably better players got drafted after (100% in Zay’s case but I do like Edmunds).  But that’s the risk in those moves.  And just be consistent in how you approach things.  It’s like everything your ex does was terrible but your new girl is doing the same stuff but you are fine with it. I don’t want a trade up in the first.

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2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair but Watkins was fair and away the best in that draft (ODJ wasn’t that great in college. Personally, I wanted Evans) and he was getting a receiver for his 2nd year qb.  If the Bills did that for Allen, I won’t love it but I would understand.  But I certainly get why people didn’t like him doing.

 

But we traded up for Zay and Edmunds when arguably better players got drafted after (100% in Zay’s case but I do like Edmunds).  But that’s the risk in those moves.  And just be consistent in how you approach things.  It’s like everything your ex does was terrible but your new girl is doing the same stuff but you are fine with it. I don’t want a trade up in the first.

It’s a fair point that Watkins certainly was regarding as such heading into that draft. There’s a lot of happenstance that shaped or reinforced peoples opinions on the move after OBJ broke out. It’s not like half the board were calling for Beckham. From memory there were more wanting Evans than OBJ. If EJ was good or Watkins put up OBJ numbers, Whaley’s move would be praised or at least the criticism would be quickly forgotten. A move up could be a good move, even for a non QB like a pass rusher. The price, team status / needs and talent of said player all factor in to that move. 

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53 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Doug Whaley is such an idiot for trading up in the draft.

 

McBeane are geniuses for trading up for the 3rd time in 3 years!

 

Doug Whaley traded up for a WR when we had no serviceable QB. McBeane traded up for a QB and a MLB.

 

BIG difference.

 

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7 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

But does it really ? Or is this just some sports talking head drivel to drive conversation. Has Belichicks drafting been above the NFL average in the last decade or so? Having multiple middle round picks doesn’t increase the chance that any single player will be good. Are draft picks like lottery tickets ? ( they say having more tickets in the powerball doesn’t increase your odds of winning). Or are draft picks simply currency to move around the board and get the players you want ? It’s a legitimate debate, and I’m not sure even those who fall into one camp or another actually have the answer. 

Fair but you get more chances.  Is Edmunds going to be that much better than LVE or Leonard?  If the Bills day put, they have an extra pick that could have been a starting o linemen (lots of o linemen are found in middle rounds).  

 

I just dont think its worth worth the risk.  That Zay trade looks terrible. 

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