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USA Today's 4-Round Mock - I'd be Thrilled

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https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2019/02/19/2019-nfl-mock-draft-4-rounds-trades-combine-dwayne-haskins-kyler-murray-drew-lock-quinnen-williams-nick-bosa/

 

Round 1:

14. Buffalo Bills (from ATL)* | D.K. Metcalf | WR | Ole Miss

Another team that moves back and still lands the player they likely would have picked at their original spot, the Bills get a huge win with this scenario. Adding extra picks and still getting the most complete pass-catcher in this draft would be a great start to a draft that has to be about building around Josh Allen.

 

Round 2: 

40. Buffalo Bills | Garrett Bradbury | OL | North Carolina State

45. Buffalo Bills (from ATL)* | Andre Dillard | OT | Washington State 

 

Round 3:

74. Buffalo Bills | Devin Singletary | RB | FAU

 

Round 4:

105. Buffalo Bills | Montre Hartage | CB | Northwestern

110. Buffalo Bills (from ATL)* | Emanuel Hall | WR | Missouri

124. Buffalo Bills (from KC) | Renell Wren | DL | Arizona State

 

 

If the Bills traded back to acquire another 2nd & 4th round pick, then ended up drafting a WR & 2 x O-linemen with their first 3 picks, I'd be overjoyed. Unfortunately, it'd be far more Bills-like to go defense yet again, or use another first round pick on a RB. A man can dream though, and taking the offense seriously, especially O-line, would bring a smile to my face.

Not quite sold on D.K. Metcalf though. The guy definitely fits the athletic "freak" moniker that's so easily thrown around, I mean just look at him - https://247sports.com/Article/Dk-Metcalf-NFL-Draft-muscle-photo-viral--128993072/  (yes, he's the guy on the left!), but he only played in 7 games last year & is relatively inexperienced being a sophomore. Scouts think he's got too much upside though, so who knows. 

 

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Going defense at least once in the first three picks wouldn't be "Bills-like." And what does "Bills-like" mean anyway? So far, this FO has made more good moves than mistakes.

 

No way to know what it would be without knowing who the players are, but picking the best available player would make a ton of sense in the long term, which is how we should all be thinking.

 

I would love picking up extra picks, but my guess is that they pick at #9.

Edited by Thurman#1
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I don’t see the Bills using that many picks. If they trade back, I’d expect trade ups later.  I used the draft value chart to keep it realistic and Easterling’s mock to get guys that he has available at those spots. Here are a couple of modifications that I’d like:

14 - D.K. Metcalf

40 - Garrett Bradbury 

45 - Andre Dillard

59 (trade 74, 105, 167) - Jaylon Ferguson

96 (trade 110, 124) - Elijah Holyfield

 

IMO, this would be a ridiculous draft. 

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t see the Bills using that many picks. If they trade back, I’d expect trade ups later.  I used the draft value chart to keep it realistic and Easterling’s mock to get guys that he has available at those spots. Here are a couple of modifications that I’d like:

14 - D.K. Metcalf

40 - Garrett Bradbury 

45 - Andre Dillard

59 (trade 74, 105, 167) - Jaylon Ferguson

96 (trade 110, 124) - Elijah Holyfield

 

IMO, this would be a ridiculous draft. 

 

 

 

 

I like that too. O-line help and a big WR threat, what more is there to like? 

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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Going defense at least once in the first three picks wouldn't be "Bills-like." And what does "Bills-like" mean anyway? So far, this FO has made more good moves than mistakes.

 

No way to know what it would be without knowing who the players are, but picking the best available player would make a ton of sense in the long term, which is how we should all be thinking.

 

I would love picking up extra picks, but my guess is that they pick at #9.

 

"Bills-like" would be using a first round pick on a defensive player when we have the #2 ranked defense overall & the 30th ranked total offense with a young QB who lacks surrounding talent that you invested heavily in last year.

In other words, an inexplicable move that seems to defy logic. Or drafting a RB in the first round when you have a Pro Bowl RB. Or drafting another RB in the first round to replace that previous first round RB. Or drafting ANOTHER RB in the first round to replace that first round RB (when you even have a starter-caliber backup behind that guy...YAY for 3 starting RBs!).

They may stay put at 9, but if they have one or two WR's they love that would be around regardless, they should definitely explore moving back & getting the best value. No need to pull a 2006 all over again, drafting Donte Whitner 8th overall when he would've never been taken that high by anyone else.

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We can wait for FA, but I still go heavy at OL in FA spend some money to get some talent in here.

 

Let the draft be for skill position. I’d rather not trade down, grab TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuels, and Oshane Ximines Edge/OLB in that scenario

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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Going defense at least once in the first three picks wouldn't be "Bills-like." And what does "Bills-like" mean anyway? So far, this FO has made more good moves than mistakes.

 

No way to know what it would be without knowing who the players are, but picking the best available player would make a ton of sense in the long term, which is how we should all be thinking.

 

I would love picking up extra picks, but my guess is that they pick at #9.

 

Debatable. Trading up for Zay was horrible, trading up for Tremaine is looking like it was not the right move either. Trading for KB was a disaster. Mike Tolbert as RB2 was a mess. Highly overpaid for Star who was decent, and Trent who was never available and average at best. Going into the year with ONLY Peterman in front of Allen, are you kidding me???!!! Josh Allen was not supposed to start this early, lack of depth and veteran experience at QB thrust him in immediately. 

 

Not paying Richie was idiotic. Opened a hole when they did not have to undercut him. Bodine and Groy as your centers when you had 7 months to prepare for Wood leaving? What a mess. How in the world do you have a 2 year PLANNED set of moves to get a franchise QB and go backwards with OL the entire time.

 

Don't even get me started on letting Robert Woods walk and creating yet another hole. $7 million was a freaking bargain for him, these guys need to understand positional inflation. We are now paying more, 2 years later, for an average DE who can't finish a game. 

 

Rick Dennison. Enough said. In two straight years, they had an old player QUIT football before finishing the season. They can't even gauge whether these guys want to play anymore. 

 

They are good coaches but in terms of acquiring and keeping players efficiently, I'm not so sure. 

Edited by Elite Poster
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1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Debatable. Trading up for Zay was horrible, trading up for Tremaine is looking like it was not the right move either. Trading for KB was a disaster. Mike Tolbert as RB2 was a mess. Highly overpaid for Star who was decent, and Trent who was never available and average at best. Going into the year with ONLY Peterman in front of Allen, are you kidding me???!!! Josh Allen was not supposed to start this early, lack of depth and veteran experience at QB thrust him in immediately. 

 

Not paying Richie was idiotic. Opened a hole when they did not have to undercut him. Bodine and Groy as your centers when you had 7 months to prepare for Wood leaving? What a mess. Don't even get me started on letting Robert Woods walk and creating yet another hole. $7 million was a freaking bargain for him, these guys need to understand positional inflation. We are now paying more, 2 years later, for an average DE who can't finish a game. 

 

They are good coaches but in terms of acquiring and keeping players efficiently, I'm not so sure. 

 

I agree with most of what you said.  However, regarding Woods, recent comments from him were that he wanted to go to a team with an above average QB/passing game.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they "wasted" one of their early round picks on a CB.  This after trading away Darby and letting Gillmore leave.

 

I understood why they decided to trade away Dareus, Watkins, Darby and Ragland but I didn't like what they got in return and the holes they created in the lineup.

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6 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Debatable. Trading up for Zay was horrible, trading up for Tremaine is looking like it was not the right move either. Trading for KB was a disaster. Mike Tolbert as RB2 was a mess. Highly overpaid for Star who was decent, and Trent who was never available and average at best. Going into the year with ONLY Peterman in front of Allen, are you kidding me???!!! Josh Allen was not supposed to start this early, lack of depth and veteran experience at QB thrust him in immediately. 

 

Not paying Richie was idiotic. Opened a hole when they did not have to undercut him. Bodine and Groy as your centers when you had 7 months to prepare for Wood leaving? What a mess. Don't even get me started on letting Robert Woods walk and creating yet another hole. $7 million was a freaking bargain for him, these guys need to understand positional inflation. We are now paying more, 2 years later, for an average DE who can't finish a game. 

 

They are good coaches but in terms of acquiring and keeping players efficiently, I'm not so sure. 

All fair points, but I can point to T. White, Hyde, Poyer, Milano, Dawkins, T. Johnson, Levi Wallace, and R. Foster as good moves made by the same regime.  Also, Richie seemed to have a few more problems than taking a pay cut.

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14 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

All fair points, but I can point to T. White, Hyde, Poyer, Milano, Dawkins, T. Johnson, Levi Wallace, and R. Foster as good moves made by the same regime.  Also, Richie seemed to have a few more problems than taking a pay cut.

 

The defensive backs are a position they have nailed. However, they did let a first team all pro CB walk and I have a feeling we are getting a first round CB this year.

 

In terms of Foster, you can thank Daboll who BTW, is probably my favorite coach on the team. 

 

For me, the book is still out on Dawkins and Milano. They played some great games last year but they also had some really tough games too. Let's not forget. 

Edited by Elite Poster

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13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

All fair points, but I can point to T. White, Hyde, Poyer, Milano, Dawkins, T. Johnson, Levi Wallace, and R. Foster as good moves made by the same regime.  Also, Richie seemed to have a few more problems than taking a pay cut.

FWIW they cut Foster at one point, I’m not sure that’s a great example of talent evaluation. 

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If we got a WR and two O-lineman with our first 3 picks, I’d be thrilled. Whatever comes after that is just building depth.  

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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t see the Bills using that many picks. If they trade back, I’d expect trade ups later.  I used the draft value chart to keep it realistic and Easterling’s mock to get guys that he has available at those spots. Here are a couple of modifications that I’d like:

14 - D.K. Metcalf

40 - Garrett Bradbury 

45 - Andre Dillard

59 (trade 74, 105, 167) - Jaylon Ferguson

96 (trade 110, 124) - Elijah Holyfield

 

IMO, this would be a ridiculous draft. 

 

 

 

 

I think Ferguson is going to sneak into the back end of the 1st round. Dillard might too.

35 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

For me, the book is still out on Dawkins and Milano. They played some great games last year but they also had some really tough games too. Let's not forget. 

 

Dawkins, sure. Milano had one poor game. Other than that he was a stud last year until his injury.

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1 hour ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Don't even get me started on letting Robert Woods walk and creating yet another hole. $7 million was a freaking bargain for him, these guys need to understand positional inflation. We are now paying more, 2 years later, for an average DE who can't finish a game. 

 

 

That wasn't this FO. McDermott was here but nobody in the personnel department was. And I don't think the price was $7m for Buffalo. I think he took less than he could have got to go to LA. USC kid I think he wanted to go back to California.

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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Ferguson is going to sneak into the back end of the 1st round. Dillard might too.

 

Dawkins, sure. Milano had one poor game. Other than that he was a stud last year until his injury.

I agree on Ferguson. I think that it’s possible that the off the field incident pushes him down. I don’t think that the 2nd is crazy though. He’s going to be a great pro IMO. I pounded the table for Darius Leonard last year as the small school guy that would make an impact. I feel similarly about Ferguson. 

 

Dillard is a tough one for me. It’s tough to evaluate guys in that system imo. He is a good pass blocker  and MAY be the best LT in this class for that reason. I think that there are some better OL though. If Dillard is added I would kick Dawkins inside to guard (where I think he could be really good). I don’t think that mid-2nd is far off from where he goes. I think it’s somewhere between about 20-55. 

 

Also, agree on Dawkins and Milano. Milano was FANTASTIC last year. He has a nose for the football.

Edited by Kirby Jackson

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48 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

 

The defensive backs are a position they have nailed. However, they did let a first team all pro CB walk and I have a feeling we are getting a first round CB this year.

 

In terms of Foster, you can thank Daboll who BTW, is probably my favorite coach on the team. 

 

For me, the book is still out on Dawkins and Milano. They played some great games last year but they also had some really tough games too. Let's not forget. 

Milano was one of the best players on the defense last season and it was obvious how much the defense missed his presence when he went down with an injury.  He was all over the field.

 

Gilmore was a man-to-man CB that would have been way overpaid to play in a zone defense.  Same goes for Darby.  Scheme fit was the main reason there, don't understand why fans still can't grasp that concept.  

 

Also, there are more more DT options that may fall to 9 than CB.  They have to attempt to replace Kyle Williams.  I think they know just how big of a whole he left.  Why would they draft a 1st round CB when they've had success finding quality players in the 4th round and in UDFA?  That logic makes zero sense. That's the point of a zone defense, so you don't have to find an extremely skilled corner. This defense relies on creating pressure with only a four man front so that the zone causes problems for the QB and the secondary can feast off of poor decisions.

Edited by Buffalo30

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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I agree on Ferguson. I think that it’s possible that the off the field incident pushes him down. I don’t think that the 2nd is crazy though. He’s going to be a great pro IMO. I pounded the table for Darius Leonard last year as the small school guy that would make an impact. I feel similarly about Ferguson. 

 

Dillard is a tough one for me. It’s tough to evaluate guys in that system imo. He is a good pass blocker  and MAY be the best LT in this class for that reason. I think that there are some better OL though. If Dillard is added I would kick Dawkins inside to guard (where I think he could be really good). I don’t think that mid-2nd is far off from where he goes. I think it’s somewhere between about 20-55. 

 

Yea pretty much the same on both. I have a 1st/2nd borderline grade on Ferguson, wasn't aware of the off field tbh... but if the Bills drafted him in the second I'd jump for joy.

 

I don't love Dillard as much as some but if you ask me which guy in this class has the best chance to be a franchise LT I think it is he. Williams and Ford to me are guys whose greatest potential is on the interior and Taylor and Edwards (my guy out of Wisconsin) are in my view RT only guys.

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50 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

FWIW they cut Foster at one point, I’m not sure that’s a great example of talent evaluation. 

They did it when he was underachieving but they kept him on the squad.  It was more of a kick in the pants to get him motivated and it clearly worked.  After he came back, he was a different player.  

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If the Bills pick at 9 and a couple QB's go before us, we'll be drafting Kyle's replacement at that spot. Maybe an OL or TE moves up into Beane's top 9 before the draft, though. I'm more excited about the start of FA on 3/13/19 right now since it's likely to completely change our approach. I hope we sign at least 2 young OL (C and OT) with starting experience and 1 WR. The guys we draft need to step in and contribute right away, at least the guys we draft in rounds 1 - 3.

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Just now, Buffalo30 said:

They did it when he was underachieving but they kept him on the squad.  It was more of a kick in the pants to get him motivated and it clearly worked.  After he came back, he was a different player.  

No that’s not how it works. They gave every other team a chance at picking him up for a drop in the bucket. It’s not like they had a bunch of talented WRs that pushed him off the roster. They had one of the worst WR groups and decided he was the one they would expose to waivers.

 

It was a terrible decision and they got lucky. 

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56 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

 

The defensive backs are a position they have nailed. However, they did let a first team all pro CB walk and I have a feeling we are getting a first round CB this year.

 

In terms of Foster, you can thank Daboll who BTW, is probably my favorite coach on the team. 

 

For me, the book is still out on Dawkins and Milano. They played some great games last year but they also had some really tough games too. Let's not forget. 

 

I'll be shocked if they draft a CB in the 1st or 2nd round. PFF gave Levi Wallace the highest grade of any rookie CB in 2018, including the 1st round picks. I bet Daboll had something to do with that.

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1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

"Bills-like" would be using a first round pick on a defensive player when we have the #2 ranked defense overall & the 30th ranked total offense with a young QB who lacks surrounding talent that you invested heavily in last year.
 

We very well could go defense this year with the 9th pick. IF they can't find a trade partner, which I believe is their first option, they have a major need at the penetrating DT spot.  If some of the top offensive players are picked ahead of us and some of those top DTs fall into our laps, I'd have no problem taking one.  They understand the need to bring more pressure with only a four man front when using a zone defense like we do.  I'd rather do that than reach for an offensive talent that clearly is not a top 10 talent.  Unfortunately, this class is defensively top heavy.  Now we will definitely see players move up in the class as the combine and pro days arrive but let's not force a need and take a less talented player when at 9 when we have many other picks.  We had success finding undrafted free agents too last year.  The wide receiver and tight end positions in this class are quite deep along with a few other positions we have needs at so there's really no need to force the issue at 9. 

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7 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

No that’s not how it works. They gave every other team a chance at picking him up for a drop in the bucket. It’s not like they had a bunch of talented WRs that pushed him off the roster. They had one of the worst WR groups and decided he was the one they would expose to waivers.

 

It was a terrible decision and they got lucky. 

He had 2 catches for 30 yards in 6 games on an offense where he could have easily taken over the 1st WR role if he played well in that span, later he did so.  I don't see any team that was looking to scoop a player off of our WR group from the beginning of last season.  He showed he could drop the ball really well if you remember.  It wasn't until after he came back that the light came on.  How is that a bad decision if the guy showed nothing?  He completely did a 180 which worked out well but to point fingers at them and say it was a bad decision based on what he had shown to that point is just hindsight BS.  

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