Josh Allen---has your opinion changed on him since draft night?

[Rufridr101]

When the season started the receivers were Benjamin, Kerley. Holmes and zay Jones. 3 of them are not on the team anymore.  We lost are 2 best offensive lineman from a year ago and Josh Allen wasn't named the starter until week 2. The kid didn't receive many reps with the 1st team in spring training. Fast forward his receivers became a undrafted rookie Robert foster,  another who was claimed off waivers McKenzie,  and another guy who missed training camp and been underperforming Zay Jones.  Josh Allen had 0 help of a running game,  and would cause problems for the best of veteran qbs.  I really think it's laughable people don't realize that the bills have struck gold.  Maybe it's all the years of losing and past failures of drafting qbs that make people pessimistic.  Reminds me of the movie money ball at the end when they watch the video of the big guy who was scared of running to second base and didn't realize he hit it out of the park. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If you give the same benefit of the doubt to the folks who are enthusiastic about Allen as you do to Elite Poster, there really isn't a basis for anyone being upset. A lot of folks feel the need to add the caveat about Allen having to continue to develop just to placate folks who actually seem irritated that others are now really happy Allen is the Buffalo Bills qb. You probably wouldn't have the same level of emotional optimism if many hadn't been persuaded by the massive negative reaction to the fella when he was first drafted that we had made a highly risk choice likely to be a bust. It's as much relief that Allen's floor is evidently not a "bust" as joy that he appears to have a legitimate shot at hitting his ceiling that is motivating the good vibes. 

 

I give the same benefit of the doubt to all sides. People want to say bust I will tell them they are being ridiculous. People want to say 2019 MVP I will say the same.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I give the same benefit of the doubt to all sides. People want to say bust I will tell them they are being ridiculous. People want to say 2019 MVP I will say the same.

I think it's reasonable to expect a significant leap forward given an off-season where Allen now has the experience to know specifically what he needs to give a priority to working on in order to elevate his game, first team reps from the start of training camp, and hopefully some really good adds via draft and free agency. Expecting 2019 MVP is clearly excessive and technically I agree with you, but after decades of bad qb play, I am willing to forgive folks being giddy with actual hope.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Dr. Who

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I give the same benefit of the doubt to all sides. People want to say bust I will tell them they are being ridiculous. People want to say 2019 MVP I will say the same.

So in your mind the two outcomes are equally likely? 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There are plenty saying "I'm now convinced" and "the kid has 'it'..." and such like. Even in this thread. We have had other threads declaring him a 2019 MVP candidate. It is fair to say as promising as he has looked in the 2nd half of the season that we should pump the breaks a tad on that kind of talk. There is a long way still to go.

 

Bit of space between the above and " a 7 time pro bowler, 3x all pro, on his way to the HOF ", not?

 

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So in your mind the two outcomes are equally likely? 

 

I'm not Gunner but I honestly don't know how to put odds on it.  I guess if you put me up against a wall, I would say "bust" still more likely than 2019 MVP?

 

Don't shoot me, here's my reasoning....One can be a HOF QB, a very very good QB or even a capable NFL starter and those would all be favorable outcomes for Allen, but fall way short of league MVP.  But overall, something like 50% of QB drafted in the high 1st round don't become even capable NFL starters,  and while Allen has flashed all the potential in the world, he's still got a ways to go to reach the status of "16 week capable NFL starter".

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Bit of space between the above and " a 7 time pro bowler, 3x all pro, on his way to the HOF ", not?

 

I think there was a bit of exaggeration for effect but the point he was trying to make was readily comprehensible.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So in your mind the two outcomes are equally likely? 

 

Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is.

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by GunnerBill

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think it's reasonable to expect a significant leap forward given an off-season where Allen now has the experience to know specifically what he needs to give a priority to working on in order to elevate his game, first team reps from the start of training camp, and hopefully some really good adds via draft and free agency. Expecting 2019 MVP is clearly excessive and technically I agree with you, but after decades of bad qb play, I am willing to forgive folks being giddy with actual hope.

 

 I hear you, my caveat is it seems sometimes the same people who are over-the-top giddy on insufficient evidence, become those who are over-the-top critical when there's a step back or a terrible game.

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is.

 

 

I think that's very optimistic of you.

 

I'd say there's more like a 25% chance that he busts and a 1% chance that he's league MVP.  Even a 5,000-yard season won't guarantee an MVP for a guy.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

I think that's very optimistic of you.

 

I'd say there's more like a 25% chance that he busts and a 1% chance that he's league MVP.  Even a 5,000-yard season won't guarantee an MVP for a guy.

 

See people - look - Bandit thinks he might bust more than me (which definitely wasn't the case a year ago) can people stop telling me I am too negative now..... I just understood the point Elite Poster was trying to make and I think there was some merit in it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See people - look - Bandit thinks he might bust more than me (which definitely wasn't the case a year ago) can people stop telling me I am too negative now..... I just understood the point Elite Poster was trying to make and I think there was some merit in it.

 

Haha look you can call me out there too!

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 I hear you, my caveat is it seems sometimes the same people who are over-the-top giddy on insufficient evidence, become those who are over-the-top critical when there's a step back or a terrible game.

 

Yep and I think we are all better keeping a level head and talking sensibly about what constitutes real progress for Josh in 2019.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See people - look - Bandit thinks he might bust more than me (which definitely wasn't the case a year ago) can people stop telling me I am too negative now..... I just understood the point Elite Poster was trying to make and I think there was some merit in it.

 

I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor.

 

You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB.  With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%).

 

I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%.  I'd say it looks like this:

 

QB                 Draft Day Bust Potential                        Current Bust Potential

Mayfield                        25%                                                        20%

Rosen                            25%                                                        25%

Darnold                         40%                                                        25%

Allen                              50%                                                        25%

Jackson                        55%                                                        40%

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

If you give the same benefit of the doubt to the folks who are enthusiastic about Allen as you do to Elite Poster, there really isn't a basis for anyone being upset. A lot of folks feel the need to add the caveat about Allen having to continue to develop just to placate folks who actually seem irritated that others are now really happy Allen is the Buffalo Bills qb. You probably wouldn't have the same level of emotional optimism if many hadn't been persuaded by the massive negative reaction to the fella when he was first drafted that we had made a highly risk choice likely to be a bust. It's as much relief that Allen's floor is evidently not a "bust" as joy that he appears to have a legitimate shot at hitting his ceiling that is motivating the good vibes. 

I think you're spot on here.  For sure a lot of folks are evaluating Allen in response to the over the top negativism that greeted his selection in some quarters.   And then when the majority of the "experts" started waving around their impressive charts & calculations claiming that Allen would be a bust it's only natural a lot of us are breathing a sigh of relief that it doesn't look like his floor will be anywhere near a bust. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is.

 

Wow, I'm amazed.

 

See here's the thing.  A bunch of very good, even great, NFL QB had some questionable play their 1st year.  Most of them took a big step forward their 2nd year.

And while there are still some very good, even great, NFL QB whose questionable play continued into their 2nd year, the number declines sharply.

 

So you can't really look at a QB's first season (IMO) and say too much about his long-term league outcome.  Very very few rookies who play have solid first years.  Very very few rookies who bust have first years where they don't show flashes - I mean, if a guy didn't have something under the hood, the chances of him being drafted high in the first are relatively slim.  EJ showed flashes, though we like to forget that in hindsight.

 

The second season is far more predictive.

[Stank_Nasty]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea pretty much. I'd say the chances of him being 2019 MVP are about 5% (pretty high when you consider how many players there are in the NFL). His chances of still eventually busting from this point I'd say are in that 5% range too..... which is a significant reduction from where I'd have put them the day after the draft. So it is good news. The chances of him eventually being an MVP of the league I'd maybe put higher. But I think talk of him being MVP in 2019 is a bit ridiculous - yes. And worse than that it gets away from sensible discussion about what the progression we should want to see from Josh in 2019 is.

 

If I recall you basically said it all but sealed beane and McDermott getting canned in a year or 2. So i’d day “reduction” may be an understatement. Haha. 

 

I may be mistaken. Maybe that wasn’t you. But I’m fairly certain. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor.

 

You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB.  With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%).

 

I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%.  I'd say it looks like this:

 

QB                 Draft Day Bust Potential                        Current Bust Potential

Mayfield                        25%                                                        20%

Rosen                            25%                                                        25%

Darnold                         40%                                                        25%

Allen                              50%                                                        25%

Jackson                        55%                                                        40%

 

Love ya Bandit.  I look at this and think about Lake Wobegone, where all the children are above average

 

Historically, it would be very very unlikely that all 5 of those guys become good NFL QB.  Two tops, possibly three.  I don't think your percentages align with that outcome.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Wow, I'm amazed.

 

See here's the thing.  A bunch of very good, even great, NFL QB had some questionable play their 1st year.  Most of them took a big step forward their 2nd year.

And while there are still some very good, even great, NFL QB whose questionable play continued into their 2nd year, the number declines sharply.

 

So you can't really look at a QB's first season (IMO) and say too much about his long-term league outcome.  Very very few rookies who play have solid first years.  Very very few rookies who bust have first years where they don't show flashes - I mean, if a guy didn't have something under the hood, the chances of him being drafted high in the first are relatively slim.  EJ showed flashes, though we like to forget that in hindsight.

 

The second season is far more predictive.

 

I suppose it depends what we mean by bust. I mean EJ, out of the league inside 5 years. If we mean "fail" to be a franchise Quarterback then obviously the percentage should be higher as you and bandit rightly state. Like, would you call Blake Bortles a bust? He has started 75 career games, 59.3%, 103-75 TD to INT..... if we are calling that bust then yea - it is much higher than 5%.

[Stank_Nasty]

.@buffalobills @JoshAllenQB when any fan, analyst, or team analyze this guy please take into consideration the #of drops, the throwaways, and his escapes due to poor pass protection. There is a lot to work with on the positive side.  #BaldysBreakdowns

 

Buddy just sent me this tweet so I copied and pasted because I don’t have Twitter. Baldy knows what’s up! 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Love ya Bandit.  I look at this and think about Lake Wobegone, where all the children are above average

 

Historically, it would be very very unlikely that all 5 of those guys become good NFL QB.  Two tops, possibly three.  I don't think your percentages align with that outcome.

 

Yep, it's far beyond what would be considered normal or reasonable to expect.  Then again, I was consistent in saying that I've never liked a QB class anywhere near as much as 2018--I thought (and still think) that all 5 first-rounders have a legitimately good shot to become franchise QBs.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Bit of space between the above and " a 7 time pro bowler, 3x all pro, on his way to the HOF ", not?

 

 

I'm not Gunner but I honestly don't know how to put odds on it.  I guess if you put me up against a wall, I would say "bust" still more likely than 2019 MVP?

 

Don't shoot me, here's my reasoning....One can be a HOF QB, a very very good QB or even a capable NFL starter and those would all be favorable outcomes for Allen, but fall way short of league MVP.  But overall, something like 50% of QB drafted in the high 1st round don't become even capable NFL starters,  and while Allen has flashed all the potential in the world, he's still got a ways to go to reach the status of "16 week capable NFL starter".

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

If I recall you basically said it all but sealed beane and McDermott getting canned in a year or 2. So i’d day “reduction” may be an understatement. Haha. 

 

I may be mistaken. Maybe that wasn’t you. But I’m fairly certain. 

 

My instant reaction was - I think they will eventually end up fired for that decision - though I didn't put a timeframe on it. I thought his bust % was high and if you bust with a franchise QB generally in 80% of NFL cities you don't get a second go around. But that was my instant in the seconds afterwards reaction. My considered reaction the morning after the draft is easily searchable on this forum - Search Gunner's Draft Day 1 debrief.

 

But I have never pretended I liked the pick. I didn't. I just don't let that influence everything I think about Josh going forwards. Whereas some people do let the fact I was against drafting him colour everything else I say about him going forward. All I have said in this tread is it is right to keep a level head and not get carried away.

[Stank_Nasty]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My instant reaction was - I think they will eventually end up fired for that decision - though I didn't put a timeframe on it. I thought his bust % was high and if you bust with a franchise QB generally in 80% of NFL cities you don't get a second go around. But that was my instant in the seconds afterwards reaction. My considered reaction the morning after the draft is easily searchable on this forum - Search Gunner's Draft Day 1 debrief.

 

But I have never pretended I liked the pick. I didn't. I just don't let that influence everything I think about Josh going forwards. Whereas some people do let the fact I was against drafting him colour everything else I say about him going forward. All I have said in this tread is it is right to keep a level head and not get carried away.

you've been reasonable.... I'm just busting balls.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I suppose it depends what we mean by bust. I mean EJ, out of the league inside 5 years. If we mean "fail" to be a franchise Quarterback then obviously the percentage should be higher as you and bandit rightly state. Like, would you call Blake Bortles a bust? He has started 75 career games, 59.3%, 103-75 TD to INT..... if we are calling that bust then yea - it is much higher than 5%.

 

Oooooh, Bortles is a tough one.  He's right on the edge.

 

Based on (lotsa number crunching stuff, we all know I'm a stats geek), I think there's a floor for winning QB play at around 59% completion, TD/INT ratio 1.5, and 6.5 YPA.  There's probably also a floor for average YPG between 200-220.  It should be noted also these are hindsight numbers.  There are a number of today's "YES!" QB who would have been "NO!" by these metrics after 3 years.  This is still kind of controversial here........Folks look at that and say "way too low" on different parameters (eg TD/INT 1.5), but I think if you have a QB who delivers on all 3 consistently, the team can go to playoffs more often than not and win playoff games (maybe not championships) with other pieces around (solid coaching, minimal penalties, top-10 D).

 

Bortles is teetering right at the edge of that in his 5th year - 235 ypg, 59.4 % completions, 6.7 YPA - check.  TD/INT 1.4 - fail.  In his last 2 seasons, his completion percentage and YPA have both gone up, and the number of INTs he's thrown has gone down - it's not impossible he will continue to improve.  But right now, he's a "no" to me, and still a "no" if you throw out his first 2 years.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Oooooh, Bortles is a tough one.  He's right on the edge.

 

Based on (lotsa number crunching stuff, we all know I'm a stats geek), I think there's a floor for winning QB play at around 59% completion, TD/INT ratio 1.5, and 6.5 YPA.  There's probably also a floor for average YPG between 200-220.  It should be noted also these are hindsight numbers.  There are a number of today's "YES!" QB who would have been "NO!" by these metrics after 3 years.  This is still kind of controversial here........Folks look at that and say "way too low" on different parameters (eg TD/INT 1.5), but I think if you have a QB who delivers on all 3 consistently, the team can go to playoffs more often than not and win playoff games (maybe not championships) with other pieces around (solid coaching, minimal penalties, top-10 D).

 

Bortles is teetering right at the edge of that in his 5th year - 235 ypg, 59.4 % completions, 6.7 YPA - check.  TD/INT 1.4 - fail.  In his last 2 seasons, his completion percentage and YPA have both gone up, and the number of INTs he's thrown has gone down - it's not impossible he will continue to improve.  But right now, he's a "no" to me, and still a "no" if you throw out his first 2 years.

 

Took his team to the brink of a Superbowl too..... but then equally was benched this year..... I think everyone would say he is not a true franchise QB but whether he is a bust is a toughie.

[Dr. Who]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Took his team to the brink of a Superbowl too..... but then equally was benched this year..... I think everyone would say he is not a true franchise QB but whether he is a bust is a toughie.

Is "bust" criteria objective level of play or is it also dictated by when a fella was drafted? I surmise most folks would judge Bortles a decent backup level of player. If you drafted him in the mid-rounds, that would make him a moderate success. If you drafted him third overall, that feels like a bust. That doesn't mean Bortles would have to have become a top five qb in order to avoid being a bust. I think Andy Dalton level average does that, though even that indicates a miss in terms of where he was drafted.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Is "bust" criteria objective level of play or is it also dictated by when a fella was drafted? I surmise most folks would judge Bortles a decent backup level of player. If you drafted him in the mid-rounds, that would make him a moderate success. If you drafted him third overall, that feels like a bust. That doesn't mean Bortles would have to have become a top five qb in order to avoid being a bust. I think Andy Dalton level average does that, though even that indicates a miss in terms of where he was drafted.

 

See I am not sure I agree. If a guy starts 75 games, takes you to the brink of the Superbowl, has Bortles esque numbers.... I think it is disappointing for a 3rd overall pick... but not sure I'd call it a bust.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I am not sure I agree. If a guy starts 75 games, takes you to the brink of the Superbowl, has Bortles esque numbers.... I think it is disappointing for a 3rd overall pick... but not sure I'd call it a bust.

There's definitely enough ambiguity to make it a call that could be argued either way. Let's just put it this way, if Allen turns out to be Blake Bortles (as some of his critics today assert,) I will be very disappointed.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

There's definitely enough ambiguity to make it a call that could be argued either way. Let's just put it this way, if Allen turns out to be Blake Bortles (as some of his critics today assert,) I will be very disappointed.

 

Indeed. And yet he will be our most successful drafted QB in how long......? Since Kelly?

[Dr. Who]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Indeed. And yet he will be our most successful drafted QB in how long......? Since Kelly?

Yep. It's been a long wait. I didn't even realize I was young back then and thought for sure we'd have a fair number of playoff appearances and hopefully a shot or two at the Super Bowl in the future. Now I'm looking at the hour glass and praying Allen is the answer.

[Big Turk]

53 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor.

 

You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB.  With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%).

 

I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%.  I'd say it looks like this:

 

QB                 Draft Day Bust Potential                        Current Bust Potential

Mayfield                        25%                                                        20%

Rosen                            25%                                                        25%

Darnold                         40%                                                        25%

Allen                              50%                                                        25%

Jackson                        55%                                                        40%

Mayfield current should be more like 5%...that dude is a baller.

 

Jackson is basically a glorified RB who gets to throw the ball at times on easy play action passes or easy defined throws. Dude has attempted 170 passes and ran 133 times...seriously?

 

Allen has a lot of this as well but he was asked to do a lot more. Allen has taken over the game at times in ways Jackson hasn't...maybe in ways none of the others have to be honest. What he did in the 2nd half of that last game was eye popping.

 

With Jackson its hand the ball off or he will run and then the 3rd option is pass. Basically its an updated version of the Tim Tebow offense. Still know next to nothing about Jackson as a QB as he hasnt been asked to do jack sh!t other than be safe. Also what he is doing is not a viable offense for 10 years, its a gimmick that was meant to salvage the season for Baltimore.

Edited January 4, 2019 by matter2003

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Don't shoot me, here's my reasoning....One can be a HOF QB, a very very good QB or even a capable NFL starter and those would all be favorable outcomes for Allen, but fall way short of league MVP.  But overall, something like 50% of QB drafted in the high 1st round don't become even capable NFL starters,  and while Allen has flashed all the potential in the world, he's still got a ways to go to reach the status of "16 week capable NFL starter".

Not going to shoot you down! I was asking because I'm genuinely curious to get people's takes on him. I can see the reasoning either way- the historical odds are weighted against him becoming anything like an MVP candidate and DO point to busting as the more likely outcome. My personal take is if you look at his trajectory over the course of the season it's not unrealistic to argue that he's more likely to succeed than fail at this point but I'm speaking also as a fan...I have a vested interest in seeing him become a top QB.

 

There's absolutely room for questioning where he's at right now and whether he'll eventually pan out. He's far from a finished product, although I'd argue he's a lot closer to capable NFL starter than you suggest. And that's a reasonable point of contention imo. What I find objectionable is the idea that optimism (even if somewhat unrealistic) about his future somehow needs to be countered with an equivalent measure of negativity, or 'realism', ESPECIALLY from folks who had no problem labelling him a bust before he stepped on the field. Considering we're all fans of the same team, that point of view seems unnecessarily argumentative.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Mayfield current should be more like 5%...that dude is a baller.

 

Jackson is basically a glorified RB who gets to throw the ball at times on easy play action passes or easy defined throws. Dude has attempted 170 passes and ran 133 times...seriously?

 

Allen has a lot of this as well but he was asked to do a lot more. Allen has taken over the game at times in ways Jackson hasn't...maybe in ways none of the others have to be honest. What he did in the 2nd half of that last game was eye popping.

 

With Jackson its hand the ball off or he will run and then the 3rd option is pass. Basically its an updated version of the Tim Tebow offense. Know next to nothing about Jackson still as a QB as he hasnt been asked to do jack sh!t other than be safe. Also what he is doing is not a viable offense for 10 years, its a gimmick that was meant to salvage the season for Baltimore.

 

You could have said the same thing about RG3 as a rookie--he was a baller.

 

I'm not anointing anyone after playing 14 games against a last-place schedule when DCs don't have an entire offseason to game plan against him.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Not going to shoot you down! I was asking because I'm genuinely curious to get people's takes on him. I can see the reasoning either way- the historical odds are weighted against him becoming anything like an MVP candidate and DO point to busting as the more likely outcome. My personal take is if you look at his trajectory over the course of the season it's not unrealistic to argue that he's more likely to succeed than fail at this point but I'm speaking also as a fan...I have a vested interest in seeing him become a top QB.

 

There's absolutely room for questioning where he's at right now and whether he'll eventually pan out. He's far from a finished product, although I'd argue he's a lot closer to capable NFL starter than you suggest. And that's a reasonable point of contention imo. What I find objectionable is the idea that optimism (even if somewhat unrealistic) about his future somehow needs to be countered with an equivalent measure of negativity, or 'realism', ESPECIALLY from folks who had no problem labelling him a bust before he stepped on the field. Considering we're all fans of the same team, that point of view seems unnecessarily argumentative.

Yeah, this is how I feel. Maybe some folks can be more objective about it.

[Green Lightning]

On 1/2/2019 at 9:23 AM, Flip Johnson said:

 

I am convinced that there are some people on this board who would have watched Dan Marino in 1983 and said, "we need to see more."

Not really.  I hated the pick. Since then I'm somewhat optimistic, not on his accuracy which is still suspect in my mind. But it in his ability to read defenses and process. I think that's where he made a good gain from his college days.  His running ability is off the charts and a surprise, but it's not something I want to rely on long term for his career. Sure is nice to have though.That said, I still need to see more. I like to see him hit slants,  short passes to the right and to stop throwing behind receivers. The bread-and-butter passes that get you 1st downs. I'd like to see him be able to do that and as well as go long when he sees the opportunity. But if you can't make 1st downs with your arm in this league you're not going to be a winning quarterback.  Pre injury, I was shaking my head every time he played. But post injury he impressed me with some credible growth.

[Big Turk]

50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You could have said the same thing about RG3 as a rookie--he was a baller.

 

I'm not anointing anyone after playing 14 games against a last-place schedule when DCs don't have an entire offseason to game plan against him.

 

True, but the difference is I don't think Mayfield is going to be asking coaches to remove his bad plays in film study so he doesn't look bad in front of the entire team. Mayfield is about putting in that work...Griffin was about reading his press clippings. Is it any wonder Griffin ended up where he did with his prima donna attitude, fragile ego and work habits?

 

You want to know why Robert Griffin ultimately was a bust? All you need to do is read this article:

 

Blames everyone and everything for his failures except himself(and Dan Snyder). When you can't take responsibility for your actions or inactions and your part in all of this, you have no business being a QB, the leader of the offense and the team by default. Nobody respects that, least of all his teammates.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/5/robert-griffin-iii-blames-everyone-for-fall-in-was/

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by matter2003

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

True, but the difference is I don't think Mayfield is going to be asking coaches to remove his bad plays in film study so he doesn't look bad in front of the entire team. Mayfield is about putting in that work...Griffin was about reading his press clippings. Is it any wonder Griffin ended up where he did with his prima donna attitude, fragile ego and work habits?

 

Not at all a surprise...again though, my point is that there's going to be things about Mayfield's game--both on and off the field--that will be fleshed out over his first off-season.

[TheElectricCompany]

His passing stats are kind of where I thought they'd be (please spare me the "He's a rookie!" shtick), but his running ability is incredible. I didn't expect that at all!

 

The accuracy / precision / whatever you want call them issues are real. I've been critical about JAs stats and even called him "Teflon Josh" because of the plethora of excuses that he's had for years. That nickname is overly harsh, but let's be real - his completion and YPA numbers suck. Those MUST improve for us to build a consistent high scoring offense. Getting more offensive playmakers (can we find a Christian McCaffery type???) and a better line will help, but it's primarily on JA has to make that leap. 

 

Either way, 5 TDs in a game don't lie. I can't think of bust QBs who've put up 5 TDs in a game, can you? The guy is a dual threat playmaker.  I'll enjoy my visit to the crow buffet in the offseason and look forward to seeing his progression in September 2019. 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

There's definitely enough ambiguity to make it a call that could be argued either way. Let's just put it this way, if Allen turns out to be Blake Bortles (as some of his critics today assert,) I will be very disappointed.

In Bortles' second year (2015) his passing stats were 355/606 (58.6%) for 4,428 yards(7.31 YPA), 35 TDs, & 18 INTs. He also ran 52 times for 310 yards and 2 TDs. If those are Josh Allen's stats in year 2 I think everyone here is pretty excited.

[CodeMonkey]

Josh was at the Sabres game last night.  The only Bill they showed (that I saw, at least).  That's a positive thing, even if he was in a box