So our bust qb was responsible for nearly 400 yards of offense

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The lob to DiMarco was perfect touch on an intermediate pass and example he took a lot off his throw. He threw a couple darts on short passes to McKenzie. He threw a very accurate short pass to McCoy on the second play of the 90 yard two-minute drive just when we needed it. 

And once he starts doing those things with consistency, his YPA will rise and his doubters will be silenced.

 

Until then, the jury is still out. Like I said, that game opened a lot of eyes as to what a QB with his skill set can do.

 

If he wants to be elite, he must get more consistent with the gimmies and also get better at recognizing where to go with the ball. You can tell the kid is working his a** off so there's no reason to think he won't make it a top priority.

Edited December 4, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

And once he starts doing those things with consistency, his YPA will rise and his doubters will be silenced.

 

Until then, the jury is still out. Like I said, that game opened a lot of eyes as to what a QB with his skill set can do.

 

If he wants to be elite, he must get more consistent with the gimmies and also get better at recognition. You can tell the kid is working his a** off so there's no reason to think he won't make it a top priority.

Name all the short and intermediate passes that were obviously inaccurate. I know there were some but not that many. Most of his incompletions were significantly downfield. He threw a few bad intermediate passes early, no question. But no more than the average game of QBs I'm sure you would consider consisting accurate.

[Alphadawg7]

On 12/2/2018 at 3:50 PM, PeterDude said:

 

The ball left his hand early and it fluttered/floated, the damn player even said so himself!  You guys are something else lmao. It left his hand wrong because his feet were not set, ya know, one of the knocks on him coming out of college...

 

Are you out of your mind?  Feet not set?  Hahahaha you’re analysis is awful.  He was running for his life and had to throw 50+ yards through the air and across his body.  You can’t even fathom how hard that throw was and honestly, most QBs in the NFL couldn’t make that throw...not mention most QBs would have never even gotten the chance to make that throw as they never would have evaded the pressure.  

 

Allen was our entire offense, like almost 400 yards himself.  And that’s with no run game support and dropped passes to go along with all the penalties.  

 

And like I told you earlier, the fact you don’t know the difference between a running QB (Vick, TT, Lamar) and a scrambling QB (pass first QB who can beat you with his legs when necessary...Steve Young, Elway, Brunel, Luck, Rogers, Wilson, Big Ben, etc) tells us all we need to know about your ability to discuss QBs.  

 

Anyone who compares Allen to a Tyrod style type QB is lazy and uninformed.  Stop reading stat sheets and assume they are the same style of player just because Allen has rushing yards.  

[BillsFan2313]

On 12/2/2018 at 4:32 PM, buffalobillswin said:

Stats are nice. Wins are better.

 

Lol. Forgot football isnt a team sport. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yes. They need to develop and get better in areas where there is room for growth. In Allen's case, that would be accuracy and efficiency. I'm not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to comprehend.

I don't really disagree with any of this as I'm more bullish on Allen than I've ever been. His strengths are really something else and even better than advertised. The TD to Jones in the back of the endzone was a wakeup call to anyone not wiling to at least give him a chance.

 

In order to take that next step, he's going to need to develop some touch on the short and intermediate passes. Perhaps that will come with repetition and confidence.

One touch pass that was perfect was the wheel route to Dimarco.

[Zerovoltz]

.....the argument that The difference between Allen being a 60% thrower and a 55% thrower is 1.5 passes completed if he attempts 30 passes.  

 

This is is mathematically correct but you can apply this to every QB.  Somehow others manage to consistently complete at a higher pct despite also having to throw a ball away, have the receiver drop the pass etc.  

 

quarterbacks not not named Josh Allen have higher completion pct with the same group.

 

my point remains.  Allen is an incredible prospect with lots of gifts and talent and he has a very substantial set of data to look at that suggests he isn’t accurate and that it is far from a given he ever will be.  

 

My point isn’t that I think Allen is awful or that  I think he can’t improve or that given better supporting cast improvement can’t happen.

 

It is not a given.  Another example of a guy with a great arm, gifts etc was Kyle Boler.  A guy coaches thought wasn’t accurate due to supporting cast at college and who they could coach up and surround with talent and fix him.  There are a lot of Kyle Bolers.  Accuracy, efficiency whatever you want to call it... but it is HARD to teach.  Making quick reads, and then the proper pass don’t tend to be things that can be improved much of at all by coaching or better players around.

 

ive said in many other threads here that given his incredible natural gifts and his football upbringing he is worthwhile.  I can buy the argument that he was a farm kid that never was coached up as a kid, as a high school player or in college....

 

its not a given and if Allen does develop into a legit franchise QB he will have beaten long odds and the Bills leadership will deserve to be praised as geniuses.  

[BillsFan130]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is totally different from being an accurate passer. He is not a particularly accurate passer, as in he will never be known for his consistently precise ball placement like Brees and Brady. That is not the same thing as saying he is an inaccurate passer. The comparison to EJ Manuel is perfect. Allen made at least 3 throws yesterday that were more accurate than anything Manuel ever threw when you account for difficulty of the throw. Off the top of my head the sideline pass to Zay, the 2nd TD to Zay, and the ball thrown to McKenzie on I think the last drive of the 1st half. Those were all extremely accurate passes. I'm pretty sure after his first 2 inaccurate passes he only had 2 more.

Even that pass to foster on the last drive. (The first play) Was an absolute strike in a tight window

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

.....the argument that The difference between Allen being a 60% thrower and a 55% thrower is 1.5 passes completed if he attempts 30 passes.  

 

This is is mathematically correct but you can apply this to every QB.  Somehow others manage to consistently complete at a higher pct despite also having to throw a ball away, have the receiver drop the pass etc.  

 

quarterbacks not not named Josh Allen have higher completion pct with the same group.

 

my point remains.  Allen is an incredible prospect with lots of gifts and talent and he has a very substantial set of data to look at that suggests he isn’t accurate and that it is far from a given he ever will be.  

 

My point isn’t that I think Allen is awful or that  I think he can’t improve or that given better supporting cast improvement can’t happen.

 

It is not a given.  Another example of a guy with a great arm, gifts etc was Kyle Boler.  A guy coaches thought wasn’t accurate due to supporting cast at college and who they could coach up and surround with talent and fix him.  There are a lot of Kyle Bolers.  Accuracy, efficiency whatever you want to call it... but it is HARD to teach.  Making quick reads, and then the proper pass don’t tend to be things that can be improved much of at all by coaching or better players around.

 

ive said in many other threads here that given his incredible natural gifts and his football upbringing he is worthwhile.  I can buy the argument that he was a farm kid that never was coached up as a kid, as a high school player or in college....

 

its not a given and if Allen does develop into a legit franchise QB he will have beaten long odds and the Bills leadership will deserve to be praised as geniuses.  

So...you've now given us Tim Tebow and Kyle Boller as Allen comps. Might as well go whole hog and throw in Jamarcus Russell for the trifecta of terrible QB takes.

[Zerovoltz]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So...you've now given us Tim Tebow and Kyle Boller as Allen comps. Might as well go whole hog and throw in Jamarcus Russell for the trifecta of terrible QB takes.

 

I’m giving those guys as examples of prospects who “just needed to be more accurate”.   Allen is an incredible prospect.  More gifted than those guys.  The comparison is that NFL people and fans thought it was just a matter of more time more reps and more coaching and the accuracy, passing efficiency, was going to happen, like a forgone conclusion.

 

most of the fans on this board speak of Allen exactly this same way.  More time more reps and better supporting cast has been the failing formula to improve accuracy for decades.  Many here seem to think success is right around the corner.  

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

I’m giving those guys as examples of prospects who “just needed to be more accurate”.   Allen is an incredible prospect.  More gifted than those guys.  The comparison is that NFL people and fans thought it was just a matter of more time more reps and more coaching and the accuracy, passing efficiency, was going to happen, like a forgone conclusion.

 

most of the fans on this board speak of Allen exactly this same way.  More time more reps and better supporting cast has been the failing formula to improve accuracy for decades.  Many here seem to think success is right around the corner.  

Cool. And I think Mahomes is a lot like Foles: basically a bad QB who had one good year and then is destined to fade into obscurity. Sure, Mahomes has a slightly better completion % but Foles had a much better TD/INT ratio and they had exactly the same YPA of 9.1. Just two systems QBs. Everything they're saying about Mahomes now they said about Foles in 2013. Many seem to think they're bound to follow similar paths. 

[26CornerBlitz]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Cool. And I think Mahomes is a lot like Foles: basically a bad QB who had one good year and then is destined to fade into obscurity. Sure, Mahomes has a slightly better completion % but Foles had a much better TD/INT ratio and they had exactly the same YPA of 9.1. Just two systems QBs. Everything they're saying about Mahomes now they said about Foles in 2013. Many seem to think they're bound to follow similar paths. 

 

Terrible take!

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Terrible take!

Yup!

[Zerovoltz]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Cool. And I think Mahomes is a lot like Foles: basically a bad QB who had one good year and then is destined to fade into obscurity. Sure, Mahomes has a slightly better completion % but Foles had a much better TD/INT ratio and they had exactly the same YPA of 9.1. Just two systems QBs. Everything they're saying about Mahomes now they said about Foles in 2013. Many seem to think they're bound to follow similar paths. 

 

What numbers would you like to use to measure his progress as a passer and how much time do you think is enough to see results?

[formerlyofCtown]

I took some flack for my QB rankings in the draft.

Mayfield

Allen

Rudolph(Yes 26CBI still think so)

Rudolph is the only one who hasnt proven me correct yet.  While I felt Allen has enormous upside(John Elway or above ceiling), I believed Mayfield was and is a sure thing.  Allen will meet that potential and in 30 years the end rankings will be

Allen-HOF

Mayfield-HOF

Rudolph-HOF

Rosen-Journeyman backup that will be a Fitzpatrick type

Darnold-Bust

Jackson-still a big wild card. Bust-HOF depends on the position he ends up in. (I dont mean WR or QB, I mean HC, QBC, and OC)

 

23 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yes. They need to develop and get better in areas where there is room for growth. In Allen's case, that would be accuracy and efficiency. I'm not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to comprehend.

I don't really disagree with any of this as I'm more bullish on Allen than I've ever been. His strengths are really something else and even better than advertised. The TD to Jones in the back of the endzone was a wakeup call to anyone not wiling to at least give him a chance.

 

In order to take that next step, he's going to need to develop some touch on the short and intermediate passes. Perhaps that will come with repetition and confidence.

326-525 57.6% 3739yds 26tds 28ints

Who is this

[GoBills808]

38 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

What numbers would you like to use to measure his progress as a passer and how much time do you think is enough to see results?

The issue is you can select a given set of statistics to make any argument you like. You did it to equate Allen to Tebow and Boller of all people with comp% as your proxy for 'accuracy'. I used YPA and TD/INT% to facetiously compare Mahomes and Foles...equally ridiculous. The overall point is your argument lacks context and nuance. It's so simplistic as to render itelf meaningless. 

[PrimeTime101]

14 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

.....the argument that The difference between Allen being a 60% thrower and a 55% thrower is 1.5 passes completed if he attempts 30 passes.  

 

This is is mathematically correct but you can apply this to every QB.  Somehow others manage to consistently complete at a higher pct despite also having to throw a ball away, have the receiver drop the pass etc.  

 

quarterbacks not not named Josh Allen have higher completion pct with the same group.

 

my point remains.  Allen is an incredible prospect with lots of gifts and talent and he has a very substantial set of data to look at that suggests he isn’t accurate and that it is far from a given he ever will be.  

 

My point isn’t that I think Allen is awful or that  I think he can’t improve or that given better supporting cast improvement can’t happen.

 

It is not a given.  Another example of a guy with a great arm, gifts etc was Kyle Boler.  A guy coaches thought wasn’t accurate due to supporting cast at college and who they could coach up and surround with talent and fix him.  There are a lot of Kyle Bolers.  Accuracy, efficiency whatever you want to call it... but it is HARD to teach.  Making quick reads, and then the proper pass don’t tend to be things that can be improved much of at all by coaching or better players around.

 

ive said in many other threads here that given his incredible natural gifts and his football upbringing he is worthwhile.  I can buy the argument that he was a farm kid that never was coached up as a kid, as a high school player or in college....

 

its not a given and if Allen does develop into a legit franchise QB he will have beaten long odds and the Bills leadership will deserve to be praised as geniuses.  

So Tebow to Kyle Bolers?

 

LOL just LOL

[oldmanfan]

13 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

I’m giving those guys as examples of prospects who “just needed to be more accurate”.   Allen is an incredible prospect.  More gifted than those guys.  The comparison is that NFL people and fans thought it was just a matter of more time more reps and more coaching and the accuracy, passing efficiency, was going to happen, like a forgone conclusion.

 

most of the fans on this board speak of Allen exactly this same way.  More time more reps and better supporting cast has been the failing formula to improve accuracy for decades.  Many here seem to think success is right around the corner.  

You do not understand the concept of accuracy.  You continue to conflate completion percentage as some magical measure and ignore the multitude of variables that can affect it.  

[Zerovoltz]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You do not understand the concept of accuracy.  You continue to conflate completion percentage as some magical measure and ignore the multitude of variables that can affect it.  

 

These same variables apply to every QB do they not?  If we can’t apply any measurable metrics to a qb then what can we apply?

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

These same variables apply to every QB do they not?  If we can’t apply any measurable metrics to a qb then what can we apply?

Applying them does not mean anything.  You obsess on completion percentage.  Statisticians would tell you that you would need to use multivariate analysis to truly understand if the 1 or 2 pass completion difference that constitutes a difference between 55 and 60% means squat.

 

Let's list just a few of the variables:

 

Types of passes thrown i.e. Short dump offs vs. down the field

Quality of receiving corps

Quality of O line (do you have to throw more balls away due to poor protection)

QB experience (yes experience counts)

Playing conditions (effect of more windy conditions vs. a dome let's say)

Defensive schemes and personnel you play against

 

And so on.  And those same variables do NOT apply to every QB.  Well, in a sense they do.   But they are not equal.  They are, guess what, variable.  And as such have to be accounted for in any proper comparison.

 

Accuracy is being consistently around your target, and I have explained that many confuse it with precision.  The other thing you have to understand here is that you have no idea what in in the QBs mind when he throws a ball.  Take the missed TD/apparent misread with Zay.  That was added to the incompletion, but if it was expecting Jones to be at point X when Jones thought point Y, has nothing to do with accuracy.  In fact the pass was very accurate; Allen put it right where he thought Jones was supposed to be.  So there's your one pass a game that makes your magical difference.  And it means nothing.

 

So just stop with this stuff.  Allen is a young guy, a rookie QB.  He has to get better at a lot of things like reading defenses, staying in the pocket, dumping off when indicated, etc.  But let's just stop regurgitating this completion percentage/accuracy thing.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/3/2018 at 11:24 PM, Kelly the Dog said:

Name all the short and intermediate passes that were obviously inaccurate. I know there were some but not that many. Most of his incompletions were significantly downfield. He threw a few bad intermediate passes early, no question. But no more than the average game of QBs I'm sure you would consider consisting accurate.

 

Allen had a very good game today with the short and intermediate stuff - I posted an assessment from Cover1 earlier.  There is no question this is an area of his game he is working hard at, and I see improvement relative to Week 1.

 

But there are still shots he won't take, that he has available to him.  I also posted a screenshot of one of Allen's successful runs - a 17 yd scramble with a textbook slide at the end, on 3rd and 3 in the 4th qtr.  As Allen approaches the LOS with room to pause and throw, we see he has McCoy at the 31, wide open and holding out his hand.  It appears that Allen is looking in that direction, but Allen doesn't pull the trigger.  I think I saw 3-4 of those.

 

The only reason I can think of for not taking some of those shots, is that he lacks complete faith in his ability to hit them.

 

JMO