Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 4/14/2020 at 8:40 AM, Tiberius said:

Are you expecting Trump to win the popular vote, or just the EC? 

 

I’m expecting Trump to win both if the election were held today. Similar EC result as 2016 but maybe a 3% or so popular vote differential. I’m basing my opinion on all the polling data I’ve seen as well as a general sense of how the Bernie people are feeling about the election. A whole lot can change, of course, depending on how Trump handles COVID-19 into the summer.

 

On 4/14/2020 at 8:41 AM, Magox said:

And then the Bernie - Anderson Cooper interview happened.

 

That’s an interesting theory. I don’t know how strongly the Castro comments tanked his campaign. I feel like there were many underlying flaws in the campaign that would have popped up later anyway. The Anderson Cooper interview is a classic example of people hearing whatever they want to hear based on preconceived notions. I know what Bernie was trying to say and I thought did say well enough without issue, but I also have my own biases and don’t have the intense emotional connection with escaping Castro’s communist Cuba that Cuban-American Floridians may have.

 

On 4/14/2020 at 8:46 AM, Tiberius said:

He was? But he couldn't break outside his base of 25-30%. Women didn't like him enough, minorities either. How is that a path to the nomination?

 

Bernie had a very viable path to nomination until the epic centrist consolidation before Super Tuesday. He was doing fine with women (a slight majority of the Bernie supporters in 2020!), although Liz Warren was stealing a lot of the suburban female vote and did Bernie no favors by not dropping out before ST. Bernie was also doing well with all minority groups except older African-Americans. But that Boomer black voting bloc is so crucial to the Democratic Party, so not making inroads with them was a fatal campaign flaw.

 

On 4/14/2020 at 9:07 AM, Tiberius said:

I do think it's funny that Trump wants to rely on socialist Bernie voters to win while railing against socialism, whf?? lol

 

To the extent that Trump bothers to court Bernie supporters at all, he will attempt to appeal more to a sense of anti-establishment populism than to socialism. His “temporary COVID-19 socialism” actions, as I call them, are clearly about short-term pragmatism and not about any long-term structural changes he has planned for our country. Any Bernie supporters who vote for Trump (5% at best?) will mostly be doing so out of anger and maybe as a strategic ploy to influence the Democratic Party long-term.

 

On 4/14/2020 at 11:54 AM, snafu said:

Bernie could have blown up the convention this time around if he wanted to, and he would have had the credibility to do so, but he wimped out a second time. He had the chance to make his ultra progressive platform *the* standard of the D party going into the future, but either (a) he’s too sold out to do so, or (b) too lazy and weak, (c) doesn’t see his own “revolution” as having any future success.  I think it is all three.  He obviously hasn’t looked into the future as an old idealogue because he hasn’t really propped up a likely successor to his movement, and he hasn’t ever tried to make a viable third party.  That’s something he should have done 4 years ago. Someone not named Sanders will emerge and be more forceful.

 

I wonder if part of Bernie’s cravenly behavior may be due to the “Nader effect.” Bernie has said that the 2000 election result had a profound impact on him and that he never wanted to be considered another Nader in his lifetime. I completely disagree with the strategic aspect to this sentiment. A third party candidate garnering 5% or more of the popular vote can have an enormous influence on the public policies of both major parties. A good example would be the Post-Gilded Age policy reforms stemming from the People’s Party, Socialist Party, and Bull Moose Party. A backbone is my biggest demand for the future political leader of American progressivism. My battered progressive heart cannot take any more political quislings.

 

 

On 4/14/2020 at 3:48 PM, Doc Brown said:

Apparantly Obama was the big behind the scnes player in all of that which is pry why it was executed to perfection given he's pry the most powerful person in the party still.  I viewed the James Clyburn endorsement as basically Obama's endorsement in SC.  The speed in which they coalesced around Biden was shocking and something the Republicans were unable to do against Trump.

 

Interesting how competent establishment Democrat politicians are in suppressing the progressive wing of the party, yet utterly incompetent in dealing with Trump. Why is that? Answer: They get to both avoid Bernie’s progressive tax policies AND keep their DC insider jobs hating on Trump while he’s in office.

On 4/14/2020 at 4:04 PM, Deranged Rhino said:

Why defend him? He's truly not worth it, and his endorsement of Joe is a sell out move pure and simple. It wasn't done for the progressive cause. How does laying down with neoliberals (who are just neocons), who have been dangerously wrong at every turn on civil liberties, due process, foreign policy, and have never once "led" the way on any meaningful progressive platform (they led from behind on gay marriage, from behind on ending regime change, from behind even on health care)?

 

It does nothing to help the progressive movement -- especially when you're talking about SCOTUS picks. Why would the neoliberal/neocon wing pick someone other than a puppet for their own agendas (as they've done every time the past 30 years)? 

 

Joe is establishment through and through -- same cloth as Clinton, Bush, and Obama. None were progressive champions, despite the PR. 

 

DR gets it! Neoliberals = neocons. I see multiple progressive policies as political inevitabilities once the Millenial+Gen Z vs. Boomer voting power ratio reaches a critical point. A constitutional amendment for Supreme Court term limits is one of them. Status quo enmity is at unreal levels among us under-40 folk. We may only be a few months away from the penultimate scene of the Joker movie!

 

On 4/14/2020 at 9:21 PM, Doc Brown said:

No.  He's about as far left as you can get and would not cross the aisle.  M4A, raising the federal minimum wage to more than double what it is now, student debt forgiveness, free college, banning fracking, raising taxes substantially on the rich, implementing massive financial and environmental regulations, and reducing our military budget wouldn't have been well received by Republicans.

 

But somehow none of these things are well received by the Democrats’ centrist establishment wing, either!!! Herein lies the crux of the problem: all this “vote blue no matter who” nonsense destroys any political agency the Bernie movement has. The biggest fear for the establishment Democrats should be us Bernie supporters choosing to stay home on November 3, which could be very substantial among the under-40 crowd. We need to be impervious to all forms of voter shaming, even as they come from Bernie Sanders himself. Biden will make no concessions if he doesn’t respect our power and if he isn’t appropriately challenged in interviews. I’ll take the first public policy issue mentioned as an example, since M4A happens to be the flagship concern for most Bernie folk. Here are some questions I would like to ask Biden if I could (by Zoom only and not in person for fear of getting Tara Readed):

 

1. You once called health care a basic human right. Do you still feel that way?

2. You once said that you would veto any bill for M4A. Do you still feel that way?

3. You have repeatedly questioned where the M4A money will come from, but have had no problem with the Wall Street bailouts in 2008-09 or with the most recent $4.5 trillion coronavirus corporate bailout or with funding the various military misadventures in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya. How do you square these circles?

4. What do you say to the many thousands of American families that go bankrupt every year due to health care bills?

5. What do you say to the millions of Americans who no longer have health care because they lost their jobs within the past month?

6. What would you say to one patient without health care dying of cancer when the other patient in the next room is getting full coverage due to COVID-19?

7. How come you are meagerly proposing to lower the Medicare age down to 60 when Hillary was proposing to go down to 50 in 2016?

8. What influence do corporate donations to your campaign from the health care and pharmaceutical industries have on your M4A opinions?

 

[SoCal Deek]

Kay, all I can say is thank God we didn’t have M4A when we got caught up in the Covid19 crisis. Government run healthcare would still be trying to find the government issued thermometers. You know, the ones you put in your mouth with the little bulb of mercury. The ones they’d purchased back in 1958.

[ComradeKayAdams]

49 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Kay, all I can say is thank God we didn’t have M4A when we got caught up in the Covid19 crisis. Government run healthcare would still be trying to find the government issued thermometers. You know, the ones you put in your mouth with the little bulb of mercury. The ones they’d purchased back in 1958.

 

Fair enough, but I don’t think the debate on M4A should be dismissed so readily by an argument that a government-run service = intrinsically incompetent. I’ll probably start a separate health care thread this summer once we have a more complete understanding of how each country in the world was able to navigate the dual crises of a pandemic + potential global economic depression. My concerns with how the U.S. will fare under our employer-based health care system are not alleviated by all the other countries in red here:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_universal_health_care

 

Not exactly a who’s who of international success stories.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Fair enough, but I don’t think the debate on M4A should be dismissed so readily by an argument that a government-run service = intrinsically incompetent. I’ll probably start a separate health care thread this summer once we have a more complete understanding of how each country in the world was able to navigate the dual crises of a pandemic + potential global economic depression. My concerns with how the U.S. will fare under our employer-based health care system are not alleviated by all the other countries in red here:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_universal_health_care

 

Not exactly a who’s who of international success stories.

We can go back and forth for days. I’m not really a health care voter. I’ve been fortunate to consume very little health care over a semi-long life. But....I do work with a number of state agencies every day in my profession and I can tell you from personal experience that NOTHING ever invented by the human species works slower than a State Agency. Literally nothing! 

[Chef Jim]

21 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

This is really going to be the Democratic candidate?
 

 

 

Jesus that's embarrassing.  Like when I goof on my wife

 

Wife:  Did you get those things?

Me: You mean those thing at that place with those people?  

Edited April 18, 2020 by Chef Jim

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 4/16/2020 at 9:58 PM, Albwan said:

That pic scares the living daylights out of me.

 

 

...saw it in the Post Office yesterday....believe it was #4............

[B-Man]

Funny how that Michelle Obama 'endorsement' for Joe Biden requires 'talks'

by Monica Showalter

Original Article

 

If Joe Biden were a normal candidate, it seems it would be a breeze for any Democrat to endorse him. Not the case for the Obamas. Michelle Obama is in "talks" with the Biden team on all the conditions necessary to obtain her endorsement. According to Fox News: Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is speaking with former first lady Michelle Obama about winning her endorsement and having her play a role in his campaign, according to a report. 

 

.

[B-Man]

 

Clyburn To Biden Campaign: C’mon Man, Hire More African-Americans

 

 

?

[SydneyBillsFan]

[ALF]

Biden has one VP pick that stands above the rest     Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/opinions/biden-vp-pick-stands-above-the-rest-zelizer/index.html

 

Would make sense to get Sanders supporters

[Chef Jim]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

Biden has one VP pick that stands above the rest     Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/opinions/biden-vp-pick-stands-above-the-rest-zelizer/index.html

 

Would make sense to get Sanders supporters

And lose by even a bigger margin. 

[3rdnlng]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

Biden has one VP pick that stands above the rest     Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/18/opinions/biden-vp-pick-stands-above-the-rest-zelizer/index.html

 

Would make sense to get Sanders supporters

"Stands With A Fist" would be a good injun name for her. 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[RiotAct]

On 4/18/2020 at 9:35 AM, Chef Jim said:

 

Jesus that's embarrassing.  Like when I goof on my wife

 

Wife:  Did you get those things?

Me: You mean those thing at that place with those people?  

and then you factor by the end of his first term he’ll be four years more senile than he is right now.   Jesus.

[njbuff]

Joe Biden is starting to remind of Mr Magoo over and over.

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[Chef Jim]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

and then you factor by the end of his first term he’ll be four years more senile than he is right now.   Jesus.

***** that. I’m worried about the first four weeks. 

[mead107]

If Biden wins he will resign with in 6 months. Hillary will be president. 

[LSHMEAB]

On 4/18/2020 at 6:08 AM, RealKayAdams said:

 

 

 

Bernie had a very viable path to nomination until the epic centrist consolidation before Super Tuesday. He was doing fine with women (a slight majority of the Bernie supporters in 2020!), although Liz Warren was stealing a lot of the suburban female vote and did Bernie no favors by not dropping out before ST. Bernie was also doing well with all minority groups except older African-Americans. But that Boomer black voting bloc is so crucial to the Democratic Party, so not making inroads with them was a fatal campaign flaw.

 

 

 

 

This. The boomer black voting bloc gave us Hillary, and now Biden. That's the bottom line. Thanks, but no thanks.

 

Bernie is BUILT for this situation. Damn shame.

[LSHMEAB]

@RealKayAdams

 

To be perfectly clear, I will absolutely be voting for Biden because I don't want to see a runaway SC and I'd prefer progressive ideas not get vetoed. But I won't be doing so enthusiastically. Pretty sure he'll win Nevada, but I think he's only got about a 35-40 percent chance of winning the GE. 

 

Republicans walk in lock step with their candidate while Democrats cannibalize their own. Too many Bernie bros are gonna sit this one out, and that's a shame, even if I get it.

 

Classic vote against candidate X scenario. Didn't work in 2016. Probably won't work this time around.