Tyrod Taylor finally unleashed in a "competent offense with weapons."

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Now we get to the way "NFL starting QB" is being defined.  In their previous starter gigs, neither were strong passers - 200 yds-ish a game.  In 2015, his best season as a starter, Bridgewater was 31st in the league for passing yards.  Tyrod was 28th.  I don't think too many football experts would consider that a strong, top or even mid-tier QB showing.  In fact I think it would be called a low-level passing performance.  When I play around with QB stats correlated with winning, that may be below a passing yards "floor" needed to win at the highest level of competition (eg playoffs or playoff-bound teams). 

I reject completely and totally the idea that yards passing means anything. It shows nothing regarding context, game planning or if they were effective players. If you think Bridgewater was ineffective in 2015, then okay. We're on a different page.?‍♀️

 

Oh, man.  Quote-in-quote makes it  a PITA to reply, so I'll just go to the one point I should clarify.

 

One of my stats geekeries has been looking for objective, easy to calculate stats that correlate with both QB quality and with winning - I hate that total QBR thing and PFF's subjective unexplained rating system.  I came up with 3, of which passing yards is not one.  You can search and find arguments I have where I take the position that passing yards are not a good QB quality metric.  (The things folks say to me! Heh heh. )

 

Then I started using those 3 stats to look at all the QB drafted from 2006-2016.  Sorting them by these 3 statspretty much it worked - the QB my stats tagged as "successful NFL QB" would,  I think, find a lot of agreement.  They excluded a couple guys maybe people would say "he's a good QB" cuz, "heard of him" or "won a Superbowl" but when you look at the guy's whole career, the argument is pretty strong that in fact, maybe not so good.

 

Well, I noticed a funny thing after that.  I was pulling in a few QB that few would agree were good QB.  Hmmm.  The commonality was that all these guys had pretty low yards per game - 200-ish or less.

 

So then I went back and started looking at passing yards and winning again.  I haven't finished, but I'm coming to the conclusion that while more isn't better, there may be a floor of passing yards per game, below which winning is less likely, especially during playoff games.  I'm not sure where it is, precisely - between 200 and 230 yds somewhere.

 

Blahblahblah long winded way to say I think you're not reading what I wrote carefully enough.  While overall, I'd agree that passing yards don't mean too much, I can't agree that they don't mean anything.  If a QB is on average, generating <220 ypg passing offense, I think the team is less likely to win playoff games and somewhat less likely to win overall.

Agree disagree, whatevs, if you want to "reject completely" that notion I think you're rejecting some sturdy data, but I've been busy with other stuff and haven't rolled it up.

 

Bridgewater was effective in 2015 for the Vikes, sure, but not on a top-tier level.

 

There are exceptions and outliers, and that's pretty much by definition what the guys who lead the NFL's career completion list are by definition.  Right now we have several exceptions and outliers who have been QBing successfully for a long time in the NFL.  But the fact is, year after year, the vast majority of QB starting in the NFL are on the team that drafted them, and if you want to acquire a quality QB who can lead the franchise for years, that's pretty much where teams have to go.  They better not count on a re-run of 1992 where they can trade for Brett Favre, 2006 where Drew Brees hits free agency - or for that matter, 2018 where one very good QB gets traded and another hits FA.   They better not count on the long-term success of a career journeyman like Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick.   They better not count on drafting Tom Brady in the 6th or having Kurt Warner walk-on as an UDFA.  These are all rarities, not the norm.  They better draft a guy, and the highest probability of a hit is in the 1st round at the top, and even there the odds are lower than most people think.  If you disagree with that, then here's where I say we're just on a different page.

 

[Bob in STL]

He was a good teammate and a true professional.  He stood there and took responsibility and accountability.  I think he did his best and gave a honest effort. 

 

Yes, his arm is quite limited.  Otherwise he was a good QB and I wish him the best.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Honestly I would Fitz over Tyrod. Even when Fitz not his best. Still better than Tyrod IMO.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahaha I still cherish the time someone here told me I (performed intimate act I'd have to ban myself if I described here) Fitzpatrick (body part) because I wouldn't agree with them that Fitzpatrick was the worst QB in the NFL.

 

That viewpoint had quite the fan club here at the time.

[C.Biscuit97]

This is such a salty, try and make yourself feel better about the Bills thread.  I wasn’t even a big Tyrod and wanted to move on.  But for as average at best he is, he is 2 fgs away from beating 2 preseason SB contenders.  

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahaha I still cherish the time someone here told me I (performed intimate act I'd have to ban myself if I described here) Fitzpatrick (body part) because I wouldn't agree with them that Fitzpatrick was the worst QB in the NFL.

 

That viewpoint had quite the fan club here at the time.

My favorite is Bills fans who called Fitz a loser.  Yup, the Harvard graduate who made tens of millions of dollars playing in the nfl after being drafted in the 7th round is a loser. 

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

The Browns got Tyrod Taylor for a third round pick for the 2018 season. We can debate whether or not he is viable, but he brought his team back to win twice against Saints this year in the fourth quarter, so please folks stop with the crap. If you don't like that one, I'll just go with Alex Smith, traded for another 3rd round pick. Let's go back a few years.

Josh McCown had a pretty darned good season in the 2017 season, so Jimmy G wasn't alone. We could once again use Alex Smith, who had a pretty darned good year and was acquired by the Chiefs for two 2s. Maybe you think that's a whole lot of expense. I'll stand pat with those three names. Let's go back further.

2016? 4th round pick Dak Prescott is only the third best QB in football. He gets the job only because Romo is injured. Ok, they didn't have to go out and acquire him - but then again, they didn't let the seasoned veteran Mark Sanchez play. Most of the QBs at the top were in-place guys, though. I admit a stretch.
 

Year before that, a quarterback acquired for a 6th round pick in 2015 throws for almost 4000 yards and leads his team to 10 wins. You know about Ryan Fitzpatrick though.

Is that enough? If you are able to identify talent, and surround it with talent/coaching, viable NFL starting QBs are available for a song pretty much every year. I mean, in each of the cases going back for five years I looked only at the top 10-15 or so QBR rated guys and only looked at qualifiers. Hey, the Iggles apparently felt that Foles was a "viable NFL starting QB" since they turned down some pretty good offers for him. Cost for an Super Bowl MVP? A staggering 2 year, $11MM contract. 

You want them to repeat, year after year, high quality seasons? Bring that over to Giants fans who have a "viable NFL starter" for 160 consecutive, sucky, inconsistent years. I mention this in a response to @Hapless Bills Fan... of the top four guys for lifetime completions in NFL history, the top two achieved their results with their second team - and neither of those trades were earth shattering trades. Tom Brady got the job by default and he's fourth on the list. Moon was the 10th on the list, and he could have been had by anyone. 

I'm pretty steadfast on this idea. The further back you go, the more it seems like I'm right. And when you look at the singularly most successful all time players, the top 2 guys were acquired for what amounts to a song. I think I'm way, way right on this.
 

 

 

sounds more like your nightmare.

Tyrod hasn't won a game since Miami in week 17.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is such a salty, try and make yourself feel better about the Bills thread.  I wasn’t even a big Tyrod and wanted to move on.  But for as average at best he is, he is 2 fgs away from beating 2 preseason SB contenders. 

 

Yep, This.

 

He also seems to be trying to do something which many wanted to see in B'lo, which was throw a little more at the risk of a few more interceptions.

 

I wasn't upset when the Bills traded him until we got to draft night and I learned that the plan at QB was AJM, Peterman, and Josh "Needs Work" Allen.  Then I had nasty flashbacks to 2013.

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

The Browns got Tyrod Taylor for a third round pick for the 2018 season. We can debate whether or not he is viable, but he brought his team back to win twice against Saints this year in the fourth quarter, so please folks stop with the crap. If you don't like that one, I'll just go with Alex Smith, traded for another 3rd round pick. Let's go back a few years.

Josh McCown had a pretty darned good season in the 2017 season, so Jimmy G wasn't alone. We could once again use Alex Smith, who had a pretty darned good year and was acquired by the Chiefs for two 2s. Maybe you think that's a whole lot of expense. I'll stand pat with those three names. Let's go back further.

2016? 4th round pick Dak Prescott is only the third best QB in football. He gets the job only because Romo is injured. Ok, they didn't have to go out and acquire him - but then again, they didn't let the seasoned veteran Mark Sanchez play. Most of the QBs at the top were in-place guys, though. I admit a stretch.
 

Year before that, a quarterback acquired for a 6th round pick in 2015 throws for almost 4000 yards and leads his team to 10 wins. You know about Ryan Fitzpatrick though.

Is that enough? If you are able to identify talent, and surround it with talent/coaching, viable NFL starting QBs are available for a song pretty much every year. I mean, in each of the cases going back for five years I looked only at the top 10-15 or so QBR rated guys and only looked at qualifiers. Hey, the Iggles apparently felt that Foles was a "viable NFL starting QB" since they turned down some pretty good offers for him. Cost for an Super Bowl MVP? A staggering 2 year, $11MM contract. 

You want them to repeat, year after year, high quality seasons? Bring that over to Giants fans who have a "viable NFL starter" for 160 consecutive, sucky, inconsistent years. I mention this in a response to @Hapless Bills Fan... of the top four guys for lifetime completions in NFL history, the top two achieved their results with their second team - and neither of those trades were earth shattering trades. Tom Brady got the job by default and he's fourth on the list. Moon was the 10th on the list, and he could have been had by anyone. 

I'm pretty steadfast on this idea. The further back you go, the more it seems like I'm right. And when you look at the singularly most successful all time players, the top 2 guys were acquired for what amounts to a song. I think I'm way, way right on this.
 

 

 

sounds more like your nightmare.

 

This is a great post and totally spot on.

2 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Tyrod dreams of 10-5.

 

Fit z dreams of making the playoffs. He could have if he hadn't thrown a pick to Leodis in the EZ in week 17.

[BigDingus]

Lol ok...this post made me laugh. There will always be those in denial though that believe Tyrod was a franchise QB, and that he was an "efficient" QB for the sole reason being that he didn't turn the ball over (hint: that alone doesn't make you efficient)

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

12 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Lol ok...this post made me laugh. There will always be those in denial though that believe Tyrod was a franchise QB, and that he was an "efficient" QB for the sole reason being that he didn't turn the ball over (hint: that alone doesn't make you efficient)

 

....gonna watch "Unleashing Take Two" tonight, right?...............popcorn and bourbon ready..............

[BigDingus]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....gonna watch "Unleashing Take Two" tonight, right?...............popcorn and bourbon ready..............

 

I dunno...Tyrod is 3-2 against the Jets, where he just lights the scoreboard on fire & cranks out a record book-worthy average of 19/30 passing for 229 yards, 1.5 TD's & 0.5 INT's.

That's insane for T-Mobile! Do you see that? That's like...over 30 yards more per game than his average last season! I dunno if I've got enough popcorn & bourbon for that kinda performance!

Edited September 20, 2018 by BigDingus

[formerlyofCtown]

On 9/18/2018 at 2:46 PM, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

If he wins a playoff game I will still eat my shoe. I always felt that we should've suck with Fitz and drafted good talent around him while grooming a young QB behind him. The Weapons Taylor had are still producing solid to good numbers for other teams. The weapons Fitz had are working at UPS and Jewel now.

I wasn't happy when we got rid of Gailey and Fitz.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

51 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

I wasn't happy when we got rid of Gailey and Fitz.

 

Gailey's downfall as a head coach was that he couldn't pick the right coordinators.

I can't tell you I was upset to replace Wannstache with Schwartz.

 

But in getting rid of the durable, willing to play dinged Fitz ("too much money") when we were about to draft a rookie QB widely believed to be talented, but in need of a lot of development, we did something eerily similar to this year.  And if we rolled together what we wound up paying TJax, Kolb, and Orton in signing bonuses much less salary, it is possible we could have made Fitz an offer he would have been willing to accept.  (There was a rumor at the time they basically offered him TJax-type salary with no bonus and nothing guaranteed, plus a buttload of incentives.)

 

Instead, we went with "German Word for Glass" Kolb and the rookie, and the rookie started Week 1 vs New England

 

At the time the fans take on Fitz was very much like this past spring's fan take on Taylor:

-worst QB ever

-throw the bum out

-I'm done with him

-not good enough, never will be

 

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Fitz just had two of the best games of his career.

 

At some point he'll revert back to his old self of turning the ball over 3 to 4 times a game some of which at awful times in the game.

 

Yeah, probably after he signs a multi-year deal with them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is such a salty, try and make yourself feel better about the Bills thread.  I wasn’t even a big Tyrod and wanted to move on.  But for as average at best he is, he is 2 fgs away from beating 2 preseason SB contenders.  

My favorite is Bills fans who called Fitz a loser.  Yup, the Harvard graduate who made tens of millions of dollars playing in the nfl after being drafted in the 7th round is a loser. 

 

Career earnings estimated at $58M.  Loser.

[Boca BIlls]

8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is such a salty, try and make yourself feel better about the Bills thread.  I wasn’t even a big Tyrod and wanted to move on.  But for as average at best he is, he is 2 fgs away from beating 2 preseason SB contenders.  

My favorite is Bills fans who called Fitz a loser.  Yup, the Harvard graduate who made tens of millions of dollars playing in the nfl after being drafted in the 7th round is a loser. 

Fitz isnt a loser... he just isnt a good QB.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

This is a great post and totally spot on.

 

Fit z dreams of making the playoffs. He could have if he hadn't thrown a pick to Leodis in the EZ in week 17.

Slacker @reddogblitz

 

This is a GREAT post and TOTALLY spot on!!!!!    MTBDGA!!! 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Boca BIlls said:

Fitz isnt a loser... he just isnt a good QB.

Fitz is having a career better than 90% of qbs, which are the top 1% of all qbs.  

[Like A Mofo]

On 9/18/2018 at 11:03 AM, BringBackOrton said:

Lo and behold my children, the miracle of Tyrod Taylor.  Gone are the foolish OC's, your Greg Roman's, your Anthony Lynn's, your Rick Dennison's.  Yes, these men all had promising career's before Tyrod but he exposed them as the hacks they are!  Gone are the terrible weapons of Watkins, Woods, Hogan, Goodwin, Clay, Benjamin, Shady.  I ask, were any of these players successful at any point in their careers without Tyrod manning the QB station? The results speak for themselves!

 

Behold what Tyrod has accomplished going to a competent organization chock full of first round picks and cap space.  An organization who needed a QB that was a pillar of stability.  Surround him with weapons, with WR's who have had career success or were highly drafted, with a HB group that can beat you several different ways, with a promising OL, and a defense filled to the brim with talent.  Look upon Tyrod's works, ye mighty, and despair!

 

You thought the two time ninth AFC Pro Bowl alternate would fail?  Repent!

 

 

 

Bolded part is hilarious right off the bat, and the fact the username is BringBackOrton. So hilarious

[ngbills]

We have a coach that has chosen multiple times to start Peterman.  We have signed multiple players that choose to retire over being a Bill. Our team is getting destroyed on the regular. Yet we are talking about Tyrod sucking? It is like the 400 lb girl with a beard making fun of the super hot girl for having a pimple. 

[87168]

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

We have a coach that has chosen multiple times to start Peterman.  We have signed multiple players that choose to retire over being a Bill. Our team is getting destroyed on the regular. Yet we are talking about Tyrod sucking? It is like the 400 lb girl with a beard making fun of the super hot girl for having a pimple. 

I would have to agree.

 

hats off for the analogy!