What I haven’t seen from Peterman

[Prickly Pete]

5 hours ago, Gray Beard said:

A long pass along the sidelines on third and short is a pet peeve with me.  It’s not just the Bills who are guilty. I think anyone with even an inkling of the concept of analytics would realize that that play has a low probability of success.

This is the go-to drive killer play for crappy QBs. 

[foreboding]

I think Nate could be Kirk Cousins. That would be ok with me!

[formerlyofCtown]

19 hours ago, Seasons1992 said:

He's gonna need to be quick all season. Like Marino-quick on the release. Bruce could never sack Marino for this reason.

Bruce sacked Marino 9.5 times

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Ittakestime said:

Not really concerned about him throwing 50 plus yards.  Brees and Brady barely air it out.  It is all about the mid range game and short game in the NFL.  He just needs to be smart and go through his progressions.

 

I don’t think I ever said 50+ yards ... and Brady and Brees in their prime were not afraid to air it out 

 

you cannot live within 10-15 yards of the LOS in the NFL

 

 

[ctk232]

22 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

From all of his preseason play from last year, his regular season appearances and his preseason this year

 

Was the ability to throw over the top of a defense to keep them honest... yes a quick rhythm passing game is nice, but it’s only effective for so long if you cannot stretch the Defense 

 

even Fitz attempted and has pushed the ball downfield, with success and failure 

 

eventually CBs and Safeties will sit on the underneath routes and jam up passing lanes if   Peterman shows he will not throw downfield

 

Hopefully he takes some calculated shots downfield this Sunday to Benjamin and Company to open up some room for Shady, ivory and Murphy 

While I agree his arm strength is a big question mark, and has been since he was drafted - two other variables you should consider before questioning his deep ball: 1) playcall - unless he's Peyton Manning, I don't see him checking down the coverage and calling hot routes on the fly, he'll execute the play as called, and 2) do we really have any deep threats in our WR corps for him to throw to? KB has size and hands, but he isn't exactly a threat to get behind the safeties and keep them honest. We have a few speedy WRs, but none that can really demand the attention and concern of the secondary. It's also pretty easy to cover against when we send the same two people deep every time they're on the field and don't mix them into other routes.

 

It's not exactly a formula for success, but my guess is that you'll see plenty of passes within the 10-15 yd range and some in the 20-30. Before we say that it's only a matter of time before safeties start cracking down on this, just remember that Brady built the second half of his career on the short pass. Peterman is no Brady, but Daboll spent some time in that offense and certainly picked up that trend. There are other ways to mix up playcalling to rely on the short pass game (i.e. screens, misdirections, running game, play action, or RPO, though I doubt they'll have Peterman run the latter).

Edited September 7, 2018 by ctk232

[reddogblitz]

3 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

2) do we really have any deep threats in our WR corps for him to throw to? KB has size and hands, but he isn't exactly a threat to get behind the safeties and keep them honest. We have a few speedy WRs, but none that can really demand the attention and concern of the secondary. It's also pretty easy to cover against when we send the same two people deep every time they're on the field and don't mix them into other routes.

 

KB is plenty fast enough to get open long. As is Zay Jones.  He got open long a few times last year.

 

I think it's a myth that you have to have Bob Hayes or Renaldo Neimiah types to go long.  I've seen bombs caught by guys that you needed a calendar to time. 

 

If you send guys long and actually throw it to them some, the safeties will respect it. they'll have to.  Nobody wants to get beat long.  Could have heavy impacts on the pocket book come contract time.  And you'll look like a fool on Sports Center.  Nobody wants that.

 

Josh Allen's first pass as a Bills was a bomb.

 

The "we don't have WRs that can get open long" sounds like an excuse before the season even starts.

[Buffalo716]

15 minutes ago, ctk232 said:

While I agree his arm strength is a big question mark, and has been since he was drafted - two other variables you should consider before questioning his deep ball: 1) playcall - unless he's Peyton Manning, I don't see him checking down the coverage and calling hot routes on the fly, he'll execute the play as called, and 2) do we really have any deep threats in our WR corps for him to throw to? KB has size and hands, but he isn't exactly a threat to get behind the safeties and keep them honest. We have a few speedy WRs, but none that can really demand the attention and concern of the secondary. It's also pretty easy to cover against when we send the same two people deep every time they're on the field and don't mix them into other routes.

 

It's not exactly a formula for success, but my guess is that you'll see plenty of passes within the 10-15 yd range and some in the 20-30. Before we say that it's only a matter of time before safeties start cracking down on this, just remember that Brady built the second half of his career on the short pass. Peterman is no Brady, but Daboll spent some time in that offense and certainly picked up that trend. There are other ways to mix up playcalling to rely on the short pass game (i.e. screens, misdirections, running game, play action, or RPO, though I doubt they'll have Peterman run the latter).

 

I already explained that yes he can only run what Is called. But I also explained that most plays (around 70%) have someone stretching the field deep. Whether a 9 route or deep post... sure they aren’t the primary, and are used to stretch the defense BUT it’s always up to the QB to make the decision , especially if their open

 

I’m not knocking Peterman I’m stating facts. Josh Allen has gone deep More in 3 preseason games than Peterman in 7 preseason... who is he throwing it too deep? The same people 

 

and Brady still tests people deep a few times a game... I’m not talking 65 yard bombs... I’m talking 30-40 yards downfield on a post or 9 route. A play a good NFL QB should make

 

and yes we have deep threats. Kelvin Benjamin is a legit deep threat. You don’t need 4.4 speed

 

He is 6’5 240... he is a nightmare 35 yards downfield. Bring in some extra blockers, go PA, and dial up a shot play

Edited September 7, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Ittakestime]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I don’t think I ever said 50+ yards ... and Brady and Brees in their prime were not afraid to air it out 

 

you cannot live within 10-15 yards of the LOS in the NFL

 

 

 

Brady has been to the last two super bowls living this way. 

 

Ocho Cinco was on KFC radio talking about the Pats offense and why he didn't work in it.  He explained it is all about playing from in the inside out and the quick hits.  The only player that worked with an outside game was Randy Moss, a HOFer.

 

This is the game Daboll has learned.  The reason you seen Benjamin line up in slot and the reason Croom made team.  It is going to be about the inside of the field where the big boys play.  A place Peterman has zero issue with.  Lots of movement presnap and lots of figuring out defense presnap.  Also, why Peterman is a good fit with Daboll.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

Brady has been to the last two super bowls living this way. 

 

Ocho Cinco was on KFC radio talking about the Pats offense and why he didn't work in it.  He explained it is all about playing from in the inside out and the quick hits.  The only player that worked with an outside game was Randy Moss, a HOFer.

 

This is the game Daboll has learned.  The reason you seen Benjamin line up in slot and the reason Croom made team.  It is going to be about the inside of the field where the big boys play.  A place Peterman has zero issue with.  Lots of movement presnap and lots of figuring out defense presnap.  Also, why Peterman is a good fit with Daboll.

 

Brady throws it 30-40 yards downfield at least twice a game still to keep the safeties honest 

 

[Ittakestime]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

 

Brady throws it 30-40 yards downfield at least twice a game still to keep the safeties honest 

 

 

Ok, what issue is there with Peterman with that?

[Buffalo716]

Just now, Ittakestime said:

 

Ok, what issue is there with Peterman with that?

That I haven’t seen him do that yet. I never said he can’t, that I hadn’t seen it yet

[Kelly the Dog]

28 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

 

 

Josh Allen's first pass as a Bills was a bomb.

 

 

 

Josh Allen's first pass as a Bill was a bomb because that is what Josh wanted. As he was about to go onto the field for that first series Daboll said something to him like "Raise your right hand for hitches and left hand for goes," and Josh immediately raised his left, so Daboll called it.

[SouthNYfan]

39 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

KB is plenty fast enough to get open long. As is Zay Jones.  He got open long a few times last year.

 

I think it's a myth that you have to have Bob Hayes or Renaldo Neimiah types to go long.  I've seen bombs caught by guys that you needed a calendar to time. 

 

If you send guys long and actually throw it to them some, the safeties will respect it. they'll have to.  Nobody wants to get beat long.  Could have heavy impacts on the pocket book come contract time.  And you'll look like a fool on Sports Center.  Nobody wants that.

 

Josh Allen's first pass as a Bills was a bomb.

 

The "we don't have WRs that can get open long" sounds like an excuse before the season even starts.

 

I think speed is very good for long passes.

Route running and juke moves are just as, if not more, important.

A guy who just runs really fast straight down field is easier to cover than a guy who runs perfect routes down field.

Antonio brown is fast, for sure, but he's an amazing route runner, which I think helps him more.

If you have great moves, have a good OC who runs all sorts of plays for you (flag, post, curl, slant, outs, etc) and you are good at disguising what's coming based on your moves/route running ability, then you will be open all the time.

 

Good post reddog.

[Kelly the Dog]

Yep. Zay Jones can get deep.

 

He just can't see, track, locate, adjust to or catch the ball.

 

[Ittakestime]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

That I haven’t seen him do that yet. I never said he can’t, that I hadn’t seen it yet

 

The Streater TD pass that was called back in week 1 preseason was right in the 30-40 range.

 

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

The Streater TD pass that was called back in week 1 preseason was right in the 30-40 range.

 

 

I missed that play. I was working 

[Kelly the Dog]

38 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

The Streater TD pass that was called back in week 1 preseason was right in the 30-40 range.

 

Very good pass, which may or may not have been a TD without the push off, but complete lob and showed nothing good or bad whatsoever about competent arm strength.

[Ittakestime]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

I missed that play. I was working 

 

https://youtu.be/C8tKDotPOlw?t=1m57s

 

Edited September 7, 2018 by Ittakestime

[reddogblitz]

23 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Very good pass, which may or may not have been a TD without the push off, but complete lob and showed nothing good or bad whatsoever about competent arm strength.

 

It was a good pass.  Long too.  And it wasn't a TD because of the push off. 

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

It was a good pass.  Long too.  And it wasn't a TD because of the push off. 

Why would you say that about the push off? It was blatant, about five yards away from where the ball landed. The DB would have been right on him and could easily have shoved him OB before his feet came down.

[MTBill]

From the site I posted above - Game Charting (where attempts are thrown):

 

Tom Brady:

Game Charting

Year	Team	Pos	G	GS	YAC	Rank	Short	Mid	Deep	Bomb
2017	NE	QB	16	16	5.0	21	51%	29%	12%	8%

 

Phillip Rivers:

Game Charting

Year	Team	Pos	G	GS	YAC	Rank	Short	Mid	Deep	Bomb
2017	LAC	QB	16	16	5.9	5	52%	29%	11%	8%

 

Matt Ryan:

Game Charting

Year	Team	Pos	G	GS	YAC	Rank	Short	Mid	Deep	Bomb
2017	ATL	QB	16	16	5.4	15	51%	30%	12%	6%

 

I sort of randomly picked these QBs for comparison.

 

Note - almost everyone is living in the Short game here.  In fact, Peterman's attempts were more in mid-range than short range.  His attempts downfield were much lower.  And these were also lower than Tyrod (same team, same WR, same OC).

 

[reddogblitz]

26 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Why would you say that about the push off? It was blatant, about five yards away from where the ball landed. The DB would have been right on him and could easily have shoved him OB before his feet came down.

 

I almost noted that if Streater handn't pushed off it would have been short because the DB was right there.  But since it didn't happen and I was trying to be nice I didn't mention it..  I said it wasn't a TD because of the push off because it was actually called.  So no TD.

[ctk232]

On 9/7/2018 at 12:04 PM, reddogblitz said:

 

KB is plenty fast enough to get open long. As is Zay Jones.  He got open long a few times last year.

 

I think it's a myth that you have to have Bob Hayes or Renaldo Neimiah types to go long.  I've seen bombs caught by guys that you needed a calendar to time. 

 

If you send guys long and actually throw it to them some, the safeties will respect it. they'll have to.  Nobody wants to get beat long.  Could have heavy impacts on the pocket book come contract time.  And you'll look like a fool on Sports Center.  Nobody wants that.

 

Josh Allen's first pass as a Bills was a bomb.

 

The "we don't have WRs that can get open long" sounds like an excuse before the season even starts.

Well we don't have receivers that can really get open period, a la yesterday. 

 

But to keep this in relation to when it was posted, is KB able to stretch the Defense? Absolutely he can. Is that the type of receiver he is? Not really. Any receiver can get behind the defense, that's not the point here. KB's exceptions lie with size and hands, not so much route running or speed. He can get behind defenders, but he isn't a constant deep threat you need to constantly honor or plan for schematically. It's not so much speed as it is equally route running as well.

 

I hope Zay can be that guy, but right now he seems better suited for the slot role. I also fail to see how saying we have Zay constitutes any kind of confidence - I think this guy could be a great addition long term, but he isn't anyone that can be used in an argument saying we have deep ball weapons, much less a solid WR corps.

 

The real issue though, coupled with the lack of open receivers (which we've seen the past two seasons), is our OL. We can wait for the All 22 to see how many plays actually lined up where both instances occurred, but what can a QB do when the OL has glaring issues, and his receivers don't create enough separation?

[ctk232]

On 9/7/2018 at 12:07 PM, Buffalo716 said:

 

I already explained that yes he can only run what Is called. But I also explained that most plays (around 70%) have someone stretching the field deep. Whether a 9 route or deep post... sure they aren’t the primary, and are used to stretch the defense BUT it’s always up to the QB to make the decision , especially if their open

 

I’m not knocking Peterman I’m stating facts. Josh Allen has gone deep More in 3 preseason games than Peterman in 7 preseason... who is he throwing it too deep? The same people 

 

and Brady still tests people deep a few times a game... I’m not talking 65 yard bombs... I’m talking 30-40 yards downfield on a post or 9 route. A play a good NFL QB should make

 

and yes we have deep threats. Kelvin Benjamin is a legit deep threat. You don’t need 4.4 speed

 

He is 6’5 240... he is a nightmare 35 yards downfield. Bring in some extra blockers, go PA, and dial up a shot play

To be honest, I think our OL has made this conversation moot - but while KB can be a deep threat, our overall WR corps doesn't really give secondaries much to worry about. When a defense can provide safety help for one guy (KB) for an entire game because no one else demands the coverage threats, exactly how is he supposed to contest throws? I agree, he's ideally fitted for the jump ball at 30-40 yds and has proven to be that guy at times. But how many throws can you expect to be made into double coverage 30-40 yds out when the OL gives us two seconds to throw?

 

You need the 30 yd throw to keep a defense honest and out of the box to expand the run - but the Pats have been winning games the last two seasons with a shorter passing game.

 

You'll see the deep ball when we have more than one WR threat in the corps, and an actual OL to allow deep ball plays to develop. For now we have to work with what we have, and hopefully use more of our TE's moving forward.

Edited September 10, 2018 by ctk232

[26CornerBlitz]

Edited September 10, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Prickly Pete]

On 9/6/2018 at 5:27 PM, OJ Tom said:

He blows.

He's the kind of guy that wins the job by  posting himself next to the new OC's office to help him move in, and making sure to leave the practice field last so the coach says "wow, this guy is just so dedicated!"  

 

I'm quoting myself. I was only half joking.

 

This is how Peterman got the job. He did all the right things, and convinced the coach that he was the perfect guy to develop as a backup. Unfortunately, he belongs in the CFL.

 

It really makes me wonder about McDermott's ability to assess players, like he might get too caught up in idealizing guys with "character".

 

Edited September 10, 2018 by OJ Tom

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, OJ Tom said:

I'm quoting myself. I was only half joking.

 

This is how Peterman got the job. He did all the right things, and convinced the coach that he was the perfect guy to develop as a backup. Unfortunately, he belongs in the CFL.

 

It really makes me wonder about McDermott's ability to assess players, like he might get too caught up in idealizing guys with "character".

 

 

I think you are missing a real key point in WHY it was NP and NOT AJM and Allen who started week 1.

 

Simple really...no one was willing to give the Bills a 5th round pick or better for Peterman, they did however get one for AJM.  Its that simple.  AJM did not really cease the job, but he also still had trade value given there was already interest in him previously, and the Bills OL and WR situation is so bad that he gets a little benefit of the doubt still.  Not as much as he did before where he was about to fetch a 2nd and 3rd round pick, but he still had SOME traceable value.  Peterman did not.  

 

And with Allen, the team just wanted to keep Allen on the bench longer for his development, and NP took advantage of some soft opportunities in preseason to be given the nod week 1.  

 

I dont think it has anything to do with McD's ability to evaluate actually, I just think it was a Beane decision to get something of value for AJM since neither Peterman nor AJM were anything more than a temporary seat warmer and they didn't want to carry 3 QB's.  Had someone been willing to take Peterman instead of AJM for a 5th, I think he would have been traded just like AJM was.  

 

Now the time is for Allen, its clear NP cant start in the NFL and simply benefited from a real soft situation in preseason...starts versus partial starters playing a vanilla D that is no where near the level of D he will face and back up scrubs the rest of the time.  Had he started in game 2 or 3, he would have been bad just like how AJM and Allen struggled.  He just got the luck of the draw and never was put in that situation.  

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I clicked on this thread expecting you to say "Talent"

 

I was wrong

[SoCal Deek]

If the QB throws it deep, it's going to require Benjamin to do WAY MORE than stick up a paw up at it!   Only Boldin has put in less effort than KB did yesterday.

[Prickly Pete]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are missing a real key point in WHY it was NP....

erputthat situation.  

I'm aware of all that. But McDermott still believed that Peterman was at least competent, and he was wrong wrong wrong.