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Prediction: Nathan Peterman Bills Starting QB Wk. 1 vs. Ravens


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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Peterman's goose is cooked. 

 

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

 

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

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11 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

 

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

 

I also think there is a very good possibility that they go with 2 on the 53.  Hell last year they only carried 3 because their 3rd QB was a core special teamer ?. Peterman is now the clear #3. He came into camp on the back of a strong OTAs and minicamp period, he took the first snaps with the 1s on day 1 of camp and then has been clearly passed by AJ (who took all the snaps with the 1s in the 11 v 11 portion yesterday as per Cover 1 - Allen and Peterman both got a few in 7 on 7) and Allen has been a little up and down but has had one of those days (day 3) that really excites you about him and his potential.  

 

I still strongly suspect Allen is the 3rd guy in for the 1st pre-season game but that is likely based on seniority and sticking with the "process" at this stage. By pre-season game 2 he will have jumped Nate unless something dramatic happens between now and then.  

 

As for would anyone poach Peterman? I'd be shocked if they did. 

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9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If all of them are bombs, sure.

 

How often are rollouts in an offense predicated on moving the QB out of the pocket deep passes?

 

I'm concerned with the majority of 5-20 yard NFL passes he'd be attempting that he was nearly incapable of last year, not the minority of flashy low percentage bombs he might throw.

 

Wait a second, wasn't your point that he couldn't generate the same improved zip behind a pass, if his feet weren't set in the pocket, but rather on the move?

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Looks like a 6 dollar makeover, one that goes out the window if he's not dropping back and standing in a clean pocket in order to execute all those lower body mechanics he needs in order to show off all that "improved arm strength."

 

I provide evidence that he can do it, because he has done it...

 

Now your argument is that the completion used as evidence to support Peterman's development was made too far down the field to count.

 

 

Edited by BurpleBull
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8 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

I'm finding that playing experience covers a multitude of QB sins or at least the one pertaining to arm strength, because those who criticize Peterman's arm strength don't consistently do the same with McCarron, despite placing him and Peterman in the same class of Bills' QBs, who 'won't even think about making that throw' when comparing him against Josh Allen.

 

It's not playing experience per se, but the players track record, a combination of arm strength and decision making.  McCarron seems to know what he can and can't do with his arm - too cautious perhaps.  When he got the opportunity to play a couple years back, he had a TD/INT ratio of 2.3 and 210 ypg.  He didn't make some throws you'd like to see, and the team's pass game productivity fell off overall, but he didn't make a lot of mistakes, either.

 

Until Peterman demonstrates in live action that he's changed something (either his arm or his head), the concern is that doesn't know what he can't do with his arm.  When he got the opportunity to play, his TD:INT ratio is the inverse of AJ McCarron's.  His completion percentage was 54% (113 ypg) in preseason last year and 49% for 58 ypg in the regular season. 

 

So it's not experience per se, but what's the guy has shown & when you look has he shown something different.  Peterman's 1st pass of training camp would have been picked off by Tre White if Tre could close the deal.  Peterman and his improved velocity are reported as 6-of-14, 43% completions.  Both look like picking up about where he left off, not change.

 

I hope Peterman develops and starts lighting it up while taking care of the football, because the better the Bills QBs, the better the Bills.  Peterman seems by all reports to be a solid-gold kind of guy, the kind of guy you'd like to see succeed. 

 

I just don't see the cause for euphoria on him as a changed player as yet in the reports we have out of camp.

 

 

3 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

 

That's a good question.  I guess it would depend upon what they have in the room already and what they want - Peterman is reported a Whiteboard Wizard.

 

Unless something changes and Peterman really starts lighting it up in a game, I'm thinking that most teams will take the viewpoint that the late-rounder they haven't seen, who has potential is better than the late-rounder who has put down game film like Peterman's.

 

Anyone else remember when this board was freaking out at the thought that the Bills might put Levi Brown on the practice squad?  "He'd be snapped up immediately if they try!"  He wasn't.

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For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I also think there is a very good possibility that they go with 2 on the 53.  Hell last year they only carried 3 because their 3rd QB was a core special teamer ?. Peterman is now the clear #3. He came into camp on the back of a strong OTAs and minicamp period, he took the first snaps with the 1s on day 1 of camp and then has been clearly passed by AJ (who took all the snaps with the 1s in the 11 v 11 portion yesterday as per Cover 1 - Allen and Peterman both got a few in 7 on 7) and Allen has been a little up and down but has had one of those days (day 3) that really excites you about him and his potential.  

 

I still strongly suspect Allen is the 3rd guy in for the 1st pre-season game but that is likely based on seniority and sticking with the "process" at this stage. By pre-season game 2 he will have jumped Nate unless something dramatic happens between now and then.  

 

As for would anyone poach Peterman? I'd be shocked if they did. 

If they did, would we even care? 

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6 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Wait a second, wasn't your point that he couldn't generate the same improved zip behind a pass, if his feet weren't set in the pocket, but rather on the move?

 

I provide evidence that he can do it, because he has done it...

 

Now your argument is that the completion used as evidence to support Peterman's development was made too far down the field to count.

 

 

 

 

Yours is looking increasingly like a sinking ship.    Why keep propping Peterman up?

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7 hours ago, BurpleBull said:

 

Wait a second, wasn't your point that he couldn't generate the same improved zip behind a pass, if his feet weren't set in the pocket, but rather on the move?

 

I provide evidence that he can do it, because he has done it...

 

Now your argument is that the completion used as evidence to support Peterman's development was made too far down the field to count.

 

 

 

Do you understand what the term "zip" means as it relates to QBs?

 

It has to do with throwing on a rope, not the high-arching trajectory of a "bomb."

 

Big difference.

 

Try again.

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5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

 

The only thing this proves is, the earlier you draft Qb's is the odds of success are enhanced. In the 4th round of the draft from the same period there is one, Zac Presscott  and  a couple of journeymen..BUT and this a once in a few seasons of football there is a player who struggles out of the abyss and becomes a star. You , me or the so called experts  don't know who it is  or else they would be in the employ of one ofthe teams of the NFL.

 

Edited by Wily Dog
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5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

()-

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier.

 

Dan Orlovsky and Derek Anderson say "hi". 

I mean, not that Orlovsky was Tyrod or Fitz, but ~= McCarron

I'd put Anderson between Fitz and McCarron.

 

OK, OK, I take your overall point - the 5th or later is a sad place to find a QB

 

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1 hour ago, Wily Dog said:

 

The only thing this proves is, the earlier you draft Qb's is the odds of success are enhanced. In the 4th round of the draft from the same period there is one, Zac Presscott  and  a couple of journeymen..BUT and this a once in a few seasons of football there is a player who struggles out of the abyss and becomes a star. You , me or the so called experts  don't know who it is  or else they would be in the employ of one ofthe teams of the NFL.

 

You mean Dak Prescott? 

 

You show me who on that list came on to be a star? Tyrod is the best of that whole group and I count 102 players. People can have these delusions about late round guys becoming stars but this is the list. Those are the last 102 guys drafted fron rounds 5 through 7. Instead of cherry picking one random success story (ie Brady) let’s look at the overwhelming majority and what they achieved in the league. That scenario is WAY more likely.

37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dan Orlovsky and Derek Anderson say "hi". 

I mean, not that Orlovsky was Tyrod or Fitz, but ~= McCarron

I'd put Anderson between Fitz and McCarron.

 

OK, OK, I take your overall point - the 5th or later is a sad place to find a QB

 

Anderson, Siemian, Cassel, Feeley and Gradkowski are the only others that had any careers. 

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6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

Few people expect a fifth round selected qb to be a starter in this league. If you look at your very undistinguished list you will find a number of qbs who have remained in this league for quite a while as a backup or a backup to the backup. If you draft a qb in the fifth round and he is able to survive and hold on to a roster spot for a number of years, even if the qb becomes a vagabond qb for a number of teams then that pick certainly can be considered a worthwhile pick. As an example Kurt Kitner carved out a long career as a backup. He certainly was a useful player serving a role and an asset to the teams he played for. You get what you get and use what you got. The backside of the  roster is not the front side of the roster. But that is not to say that there isn't a useful purpose for the back of the line players.

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16 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Few people expect a fifth round selected qb to be a starter in this league. If you look at your very undistinguished list you will find a number of qbs who have remained in this league for quite a while as a backup or a backup to the backup. If you draft a qb in the fifth round and he is able to survive and hold on to a roster spot for a number of years, even if the qb becomes a vagabond qb for a number of teams then that pick certainly can be considered a worthwhile pick. As an example Kurt Kitner carved out a long career as a backup. He certainly was a useful player serving a role and an asset to the teams he played for. You get what you get and use what you got. The backside of the  roster is not the front side of the roster. But that is not to say that there isn't a useful purpose for the back of the line players.

Kittner was on an active roster for 2 years. That isn’t that long of a career. What happens after a couple of years is these teams swing again and again and again. You don’t get a lot of chances to prove that you can’t play. 

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4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Kittner was on an active roster for 2 years. That isn’t that long of a career. What happens after a couple of years is these teams swing again and again and again. You don’t get a lot of chances to prove that you can’t play. 

I mistakenly was thinking of John Kitna who was drafted in 1996 and played in the league for a number of teams until 2013. My mistake. Vagabond qbs have a tendency to look alike. ?

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11 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Still think their is a possibility they roll with 2 QBs on the active roster, as I've said previously.

 

If they try to stick Peterman on the PS, is there really any team that's going to try to sign him to their active roster? Especially after what he's put on film?

 

 

...Peterman was a 5th.....a damn FIFTH (and NOT 25.4 ounces for you imbibers).....nowhere have I read (other than Chuckie's usual QB drool) the he is the next "Tom Brady a round early"....OR......a Mayfield-Rosen-Darnold (left out Allen because of the el busto naysayers here) gem "four rounds later"...early on reports (HINT" practice and NO live ammo) suggest he's progressing.....so why not a gamble on the PS?.....a poacher would have to add him to their active 53 which may be a tall order.... but the kid by most accounts is working his tail off to get better, a quality that REALLY sucks IMO.....

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2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...Peterman was a 5th.....a damn FIFTH (and NOT 25.4 ounces for you imbibers).....nowhere have I read (other than Chuckie's usual QB drool) the he is the next "Tom Brady a round early"....OR......a Mayfield-Rosen-Darnold (left out Allen because of the el busto naysayers here) gem "four rounds later"...early on reports (HINT" practice and NO live ammo) suggest he's progressing.....so why not a gamble on the PS?.....a poacher would have to add him to their active 53 which may be a tall order.... but the kid by most accounts is working his tail off to get better, a quality that REALLY sucks IMO.....

 

Ummmm huh?

 

Did you not read where I posted “active roster” and “stick him on the practice squad”?

 

And yea he’s a 5th rounder but he’s not different than a Cardale Jones or Levi Brown. Easily expendable.

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7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later:

- Mike McMahon

- A.J. Feeley

- Josh Booty

- Josh Heupel

- Randy Fasani

- Kurt Kittner

- Brandon Doman

- Craig Nall

- J.T. O’Sullivan

- Seth Burford

- Jeff Kelly

- Ronald Curry

- Wes Pate

- Brian St. Pierre

- Drew Henson

- Brooks Bollinger

- Kliff Kingsbury

- Gibran Hamdan

- Ken Dorsey

- Craig Krenzel

- Andy Hall

- Josh Harris

- Jim Sorgi

- Jeff Smoker

- John Navarre

- Cody Pickett

- Casey Bramlet

- Matt Mauck

- B.J. Symons

- Bradlee Van Pelt

- Dan Orlovsky

- Adrian McPherson

- Derek Anderson

- Matt Cassel

- Ryan Fitzpatrick 

- Ingle Martin

- Omar Jacobs

- Bruce Gradkowski

- D.J. Shockley

- Jeff Rowe

- Troy Smith

- Jordan Palmer

- Tyler Thigpen

- John David Booty

- Dennis Dixon

- Josh Johnson

- Erik Ainge

- Colt Brennan

- Andre Woodson

- Matt Flynn

- Alex Brink

- Rhett Bomar

- Nate Davis

- Tom Brandstater

- Mike Teel

- Keith Null

- Curtis Painter

- John Skelton

- Jonathan Crompton

- Rusty Smith

- Dan LeFevour

- Joe Webb

- Tony Pike

- Levi Brown

- Sean Canfield

- Zac Robinson

- Ricky Stanzi

- T.J. Yates 

- Nathan Enderle

- Tyrod Taylor

- Greg McElroy

- Ryan Lindley

- BJ Coleman

- Chandler Harnish

- Brad Sorenson

- Zac Dysert

- BJ Daniels

- Sean Renfree

- Aaron Murray

- AJ McCarron

- Zach Mettenberger

- David Fales

- Keith Wenning

- Taj Boyd

- Garrett Gilbert

- Brett Hundley

- Trevor Siemian

- Kevin Hogan

- Nate Sudfeld

- Jake Ruddock

- Brandon Allen

- Jeff Driskel

- Brandon Doughty

- Nathan Peterman

- Brad Kaaya

- Chad Kelly

- Mike White

- Luke Falk

- Tanner Lee

- Danny Etling

- Alex McGough

- Logan Woodside

 

The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier. 

 

 

 

 

 

Romo was undrafted in 2003.

Can toss him into the "outlier" category with Brady :)

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