Question About Accuracy

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You just want to discount anything positive said about the kid, it seems, and harp on this accuracy thing.  Accuracy is not an either/or thing as you're implying here.

Anything?

 

Say something positive about Josh Allen that doesn't concern accuracy or a standard PC answer from a coach during OTAs.

 

I promise I won't discount it.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Anything?

 

Say something positive about Josh Allen that doesn't concern accuracy or a standard PC answer from a coach during OTAs.

 

I promise I won't discount it.

He has a big arm that will help him given the swirling winds in the Ralph.

 

He comes out of a more pro style offense and is not the shotgun, one read type that take forever to adjust to the NFL, if they ever do.

[row_33]

12 hours ago, 4_kidd_4 said:

58% of all statistics are made up.

 

i want 11 wins in a season, by any means necessary.

 

the only stat that matters

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Here's what I mean:   I'd guess that about 75% of throws that an NFL QB makes are to a primary or secondary receiver - look at the defense, see what they're giving you, find the receiver, throw it.  I think Allen can throw those 75% all day long, accurate as anyone, so long as he's making the decisions fast enough.  If he knows immediately following the snap he's throwing a 12-yard out pattern, he's going to throw it accurately.   That is, I think if he knows he's making that throw, his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands will naturally get into the right positions to make the throw, because he's a good thrower.

 

The problem is that if he isn't a good decision maker and he decides too late, he has to hurry the throw and then he may be in trouble.   Same as any other quarterback.  

What about when he knows he's making the throw and his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands are in the right positions to make the throw....and then he still misses.

 

What's that all about? 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree and disagree strongly.  That's why I said I don't know if Allen has accuracy issues.  

 

I agree very much that physical, mechanical accuracy issues are rarely corrected at the next level.   It is very, very difficult to turn around 10 years or more of bad muscle memory.   Some guys do it, but not many.   I remember reading once about Favre.   He had terrible footwork.  The Packers worked constantly with him about his footwork, and he became a Hall of Famer because he got his footwork under control.  Then there were some coaching changes, and they stopped preaching footwork to him.   He went back to his old habits and had a couple of bad seasons, until they realized they had to go back to preaching about his footwork constantly.

 

I think Allen is different.  I can't say I've studied the guy carefully, but I think he has excellent mechanics in his basic throwing motion.  That's why he generates such power.   And we've seen him throw plenty of pinpoint passes.    I think to the extent he has accuracy issues, it's probably because his decision making is undeveloped.   

 

Here's what I mean:   I'd guess that about 75% of throws that an NFL QB makes are to a primary or secondary receiver - look at the defense, see what they're giving you, find the receiver, throw it.  I think Allen can throw those 75% all day long, accurate as anyone, so long as he's making the decisions fast enough.  If he knows immediately following the snap he's throwing a 12-yard out pattern, he's going to throw it accurately.   That is, I think if he knows he's making that throw, his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands will naturally get into the right positions to make the throw, because he's a good thrower.

 

The problem is that if he isn't a good decision maker and he decides too late, he has to hurry the throw and then he may be in trouble.   Same as any other quarterback.   

 

And the other 25% may be a problem, too.   But the other 25% are problems for most quarterbacks.   Rodgers is about the best I've seen throwing from awkward positions and maintaining his accuracy.  He gets upper body rotation when his lower body is way out of position.   Allen can make those throws, too, but I don't think he's learned how.   Learning how to do that IS possible; that's just a question of getting the game to slow down and practicing.   Steph Curry makes some of the most awkward looking layups I've ever seen - he makes because he practices them.   

 

I think the Bills are going to teach Allen what he's looking at, and once he's learned it, he'll be just fine on the 75%.  What he does on the other 25% will separate him the others, just as it does with all other QBs.  

 

I really do not think it is down to decision making.  Based on my film study of him I see no evidence that the inaccuracy and the poor decisions are linked.  There are times where he makes late decisions and still gets the ball to where it needs to be because he has an arm that is quite incredible and is capable of compensating in a way almost no other QB can. I am hoping at this point it is the overstriding thing, because as Hapless says that is subtle enough that it is hard to pick up on tape.  If it isn't I really do think it probably falls into the non correctable category.  

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

What about when he knows he's making the throw and his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands are in the right positions to make the throw....and then he still misses.

 

What's that all about? 

Human error.  Like all QBs.

[Tuco]

As I see it there's two different kinds of accuracy. Drop back 5 or 7 steps with the correct footwork, plant and throw to a spot where the reciever is supposed to be is a type of accuracy that can be improved upon somewhat through repetition and mechanics. Even still some will outperform others.

 

But live game conditions require a different kind of accuracy. Often times the recievers routes get impeded, or there's a defender in the spot the ball is suppose to go to, or there's a 6' 5" lineman right where the QB needs to throw the ball. When this happens the QB has to adjust and it becomes a matter of leading a reciever who's not going to be in a predtermined spot. He also may be running straight away, or across in front of the QB, or crosswise towards the sidelines, or maybe slanting towards or away, and always at a different distance from the QB, who also might be forced to make the throw while moving left or right or off his back foot.

 

These are the kinds of throw Rodgers and Roethlisberger and others excel at. And its why they are so much better than the average guys on game day. When the average QB fails to make one of these throws we say it's because the timing was thrown off by the jam on the reciever, or he didn't have his feet set, etc. But the truth is, these kinds of throws can be made much better by some QBs than others. The QB doesn't have his feet set, or he may be on the move or on his back foot. He has to see the reciever and how far away he is and what angle he's running at and throw the ball where it needs to be without taking the time to think about it. This kind of accuracy can't be taught and doesn't get practiced. Guys can either do it well or they can't. They become the difference makers. They are the guys who can keep the drive alive when it's 3rd and 12 late in the game.  And they're not always the same guys who can hit the target 10 out of 10 after a perfect drop and set.

 

Time will tell. Fingers crossed.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

Human error.  Like all QBs.

And non-correctable.

[Shaw66]

49 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree with you that accuracy and completion percentage are not equivalent.  But as I pointed out earlier, we are in a decided minority around here.  I brought up the difference between 55% and 60% to show the absurdity of that argument.

 

As for actual accuracy, you I think are completely exaggerating this kid 's accuracy or lack thereof.  As I pointed out earlier, the thing people tend to confuse is accuracy vs. precision.  Accuracy is being around a certain target but not actually hitting it.  Precision is hitting the same spot repetitively, but the spot is not what you are aiming at.  NFL QBs have to be somewhat of both.  If you have a guy that is double covered and you have to hit a very tight window, that's when you have to be both precise and accurate.

 

I suspect you are the type of naysayer that will pick out one play and them harp on it endlessly.  I hope I am wrong about that.

Accuracy and precision and decidedly NOT the same.  Refer to the diagram below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Better picture. 

Well, that's very interesting.  I never knew that distinction.

 

But it really isn't relevant here, except to the extent that the distinction bothers you personally.   

 

So we aren't talking about whether a QB is accurate, because we don't want him just to be around the target.   And we aren't talking about whether a QB is precise, because we don't want all his throws clustering in the same spot if it's the wrong spot.   It's irrelevant except for the language police who are offended.   If we go back through this thread and add "and precise" ever time we see "accurate" and we add "and precision" every time we see "accuracy," the meaning of what each poster has said won't change.   

 

I DO like the distinction, though.   Brady is precise on a lot of his throws, and that's part of what makes him special.   There aren't many quarterbacks who put the ball in exactly the right place as often as he does.  I think accuracy is what QBs need to succeed in the NFL.   I think precision is one of the things that can make them great.  

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, that's very interesting.  I never knew that distinction.

 

But it really isn't relevant here, except to the extent that the distinction bothers you personally.   

 

So we aren't talking about whether a QB is accurate, because we don't want him just to be around the target.   And we aren't talking about whether a QB is precise, because we don't want all his throws clustering in the same spot if it's the wrong spot.   It's irrelevant except for the language police who are offended.   If we go back through this thread and add "and precise" ever time we see "accurate" and we add "and precision" every time we see "accuracy," the meaning of what each poster has said won't change.   

 

I DO like the distinction, though.   Brady is precise on a lot of his throws, and that's part of what makes him special.   There aren't many quarterbacks who put the ball in exactly the right place as often as he does.  I think accuracy is what QBs need to succeed in the NFL.   I think precision is one of the things that can make them great.  

Actually I disagree.  If you have a professional NFL offense that gets receivers into open space, you have to be more accurate than precise.  You have to put the ball within his catch radius  You don't have to hit an exact spot.

 

ideally of course you'd want high accuracy and high precision.

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, that's very interesting.  I never knew that distinction.

 

But it really isn't relevant here, except to the extent that the distinction bothers you personally.   

 

So we aren't talking about whether a QB is accurate, because we don't want him just to be around the target.   And we aren't talking about whether a QB is precise, because we don't want all his throws clustering in the same spot if it's the wrong spot.   It's irrelevant except for the language police who are offended.   If we go back through this thread and add "and precise" ever time we see "accurate" and we add "and precision" every time we see "accuracy," the meaning of what each poster has said won't change.   

 

I DO like the distinction, though.   Brady is precise on a lot of his throws, and that's part of what makes him special.   There aren't many quarterbacks who put the ball in exactly the right place as often as he does.  I think accuracy is what QBs need to succeed in the NFL.   I think precision is one of the things that can make them great.  

Yeah, it's kind of misleading.

 

When you're taught how to shoot a gun, you learn about grouping. You want a good grouping because it means you're consistent. If you're consistent, then making the correction to hit the bullseye is much easier.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

And non-correctable.

Nonsense.  You act like the kid  misses the majority of his throws.  And that he can do nothing about it.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

What about when he knows he's making the throw and his feet, his hips, his shoulders, his hands are in the right positions to make the throw....and then he still misses.

 

What's that all about? 

If he did that in college, I don't think he'll do it in the pros.   It's very easy to learn to get ready to throw if your body already knows what the ready position is.   His body knows.   His body doesn't naturally get into bad throwing position - that is, natural throwing motion is fine.   Getting into position is a habit you can change; your body thinking a different position is what's necessary is a habit that is much harder to change.  

 

It's like a batter who has a great swing but holds his hands too low in his stance.   You can change where he holds his hands - that's a preparation problem.  A batter whose hips don't open is probably always going to have a problem, because that's a mechanical problem.

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, it's kind of misleading.

 

When you're taught how to shoot a gun, you learn about grouping. You want a good grouping because it means you're consistent. If you're consistent, then making the correction to hit the bullseye is much easier.

That's well said.   

 

A long time ago I heard about a QB who greatly improved his accuracy - that's what I would have called it, but it was actually his precision, when a coach told him to stop targeting the receiver and start targeting the spot on his chest between the numbers.   By focusing his attention on the spot, he began to be much more precise.  

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Nonsense.  You act like the kid  misses the majority of his throws.  And that he can do nothing about it.

I don't act like that. You're just getting a bit too worked up about it.

 

At this point, though, there does seem to be a portion of his inaccuracy issues that he can do nothing about.

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Actually I disagree.  If you have a professional NFL offense that gets receivers into open space, you have to be more accurate than precise.  You have to put the ball within his catch radius  You don't have to hit an exact spot.

 

ideally of course you'd want high accuracy and high precision.

I don't think you and I disagree.   What I said, and what I think you restated, is that an NFL qb has to be accurate and it's nice, but not essential if he's precise.  

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

If he did that in college, I don't think he'll do it in the pros.   It's very easy to learn to get ready to throw if your body already knows what the ready position is.   His body knows.   His body doesn't naturally get into bad throwing position - that is, natural throwing motion is fine.   Getting into position is a habit you can change; your body thinking a different position is what's necessary is a habit that is much harder to change.  

 

It's like a batter who has a great swing but holds his hands too low in his stance.   You can change where he holds his hands - that's a preparation problem.  A batter whose hips don't open is probably always going to have a problem, because that's a mechanical problem.

Call me crazy, but I think it's his eyes man...

 

One of them doesn't know how to point straight sometimes. A slight lazy eye issue.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think you and I disagree.   What I said, and what I think you restated, is that an NFL qb has to be accurate and it's nice, but not essential if he's precise.  

Good way to put it.

3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I don't act like that. You're just getting a bit too worked up about it.

 

At this point, though, there does seem to be a portion of his inaccuracy issues that he can do nothing about.

Just discussing things.  I fundamentally disagree with your last statement here.  But we'll see.

[Elite Poster]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

EJ Manuel to Chris Gragg was once the highlight of the Senior Bowl...

 

Don't put any stock in that game.

 

I think EJ was MVP of that game right?

[LeGOATski]

Just now, Elite Poster said:

 

I think EJ was MVP of that game right?

Maybe.

 

And then he wanted us to buy his stock. Literally.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

I think EJ was MVP of that game right?

 

He was. 

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I really do not think it is down to decision making.  Based on my film study of him I see no evidence that the inaccuracy and the poor decisions are linked.  There are times where he makes late decisions and still gets the ball to where it needs to be because he has an arm that is quite incredible and is capable of compensating in a way almost no other QB can. I am hoping at this point it is the overstriding thing, because as Hapless says that is subtle enough that it is hard to pick up on tape.  If it isn't I really do think it probably falls into the non correctable category.  

You haven't convinced me.   What your film study shows is that a guy with a good arm throws accurately even when he's late more than a guy with a bad arm does.   That is, his arm strength lets him compensate for some slow decision making.  We all know that. 

 

That doesn't mean that when he decides late and throws inaccurately that he has a MECHANICAL problem.   He probably has a PREPARATION problem.    He just hasn't gotten himself into a good position to throw, and sometimes his arm strength doesn't save him.   That's why I think that to the extent he has accuracy/precision problems they can be cured by getting him to recognize what's happening and then to make decisions.   If he can't do that, then all he's ever going to be is someone like Taylor only a little better.   The key to great QB play is in his head.

 

 

9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Call me crazy, but I think it's his eyes man...

 

One of them doesn't know how to point straight sometimes. A slight lazy eye issue.

I don't know how you know that, but I agree that would be a problem.   If it's true, in some cases athletes with that problem have done therapy and improved.   If it's true, I agree that's a mechanical problem and one that would be difficult to overcome.   

 

I suspect, but don't know, that in scouting players they test for that.   Do you know?

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You haven't convinced me.   What your film study shows is that a guy with a good arm throws accurately even when he's late more than a guy with a bad arm does.   That is, his arm strength lets him compensate for some slow decision making.  We all know that. 

 

That doesn't mean that when he decides late and throws inaccurately that he has a MECHANICAL problem.   He probably has a PREPARATION problem.    He just hasn't gotten himself into a good position to throw, and sometimes his arm strength doesn't save him.   That's why I think that to the extent he has accuracy/precision problems they can be cured by getting him to recognize what's happening and then to make decisions.   If he can't do that, then all he's ever going to be is someone like Taylor only a little better.   The key to great QB play is in his head.

 

I think you misunderstand me.... my concern is not about the throws where there is an obvious issue with his mechanics.  I don't think there are as many of those as some others do.  My issue is the throws where there is no obvious mechanical issue and he is still inaccurate.  I don't see any evidence that those throws are about slow decision making. 

[Capco]

In simplest terms, given a set of data points from repeated measurements of the same quantity, the set can be said to be precise if the values are close to each other, while the set can be said to be accurate if their average is close to the true value of the quantity being measured. The two concepts are independent of each other, so a particular set of data can be said to be either accurate, or precise, or both, or neither.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accuracy_and_precision

Edited June 8, 2018 by Capco

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you misunderstand me.... my concern is not about the throws where there is an obvious issue with his mechanics.  I don't think there are as many of those as some others do.  My issue is the throws where there is no obvious mechanical issue and he is still inaccurate.  I don't see any evidence that those throws are about slow decision making. 

What is lacking in this analysis is any kind of comparative data to other QBs.  All QBs miss throws.  Is this kid really that much worse?

 

Th dimly thing you could is put a bunch of QBs on a field with a stationary target and measure accuracy and precision.  If that kind of breakdown had been done I haven't seen it.

Sorry, the only thing you could do...

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you misunderstand me.... my concern is not about the throws where there is an obvious issue with his mechanics.  I don't think there are as many of those as some others do.  My issue is the throws where there is no obvious mechanical issue and he is still inaccurate.  I don't see any evidence that those throws are about slow decision making. 

Seems to me if you're inaccurate, it's either physical or it's mental.   You're saying it isn't physical (mechanical).  Then it's mental.  So that might be decision making.  It might be mental laziness.   It might me a lazy eye.   I don't know what else it could be. 

 

But it does sound like you're saying what I think, which is actuall mechanics isn't a problem with him.  His body knows how to throw it.  For some reason, his body doesn't always do it.  

[4_kidd_4]

48 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

i want 11 wins in a season, by any means necessary.

 

the only stat that matters

 

I find this statement accurate, yet also precise.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

What is lacking in this analysis is any kind of comparative data to other QBs.  All QBs miss throws.  Is this kid really that much worse?

 

Th dimly thing you could is put a bunch of QBs on a field with a stationary target and measure accuracy and precision.  If that kind of breakdown had been done I haven't seen it.

Sorry, the only thing you could do...

 

So I am not claiming my work is intensely scientific, obviously it is not and I am not a "stats analysis" guy.  But based on my tape study he missed in those circumstances more than the other 5 QBs who went in the first 3 rounds.  

 

Again, as I keep saying I hope I am wrong and I am not wanting to get into pulling the kid's game apart until he has had a chance to play.  I am only trying to contribute what I saw to this thread. Because ultimately to me Josh will live or die in the NFL by his accuracy - it is the single question I have but it is the most important question for me on any QB prospect.  

Edited June 8, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

What is lacking in this analysis is any kind of comparative data to other QBs.  All QBs miss throws.  Is this kid really that much worse?

 

Actually, as I've said, I don't even buy the notion that Allen's inaccurate.  I don't care what he did in college; I think a bunch of relative amateurs analyzing his college games simply isn't conclusive of anything.   We know he's a great thrower.   Why he didn't complete more passes is too subjective to determine at this point.

 

The time to decide if he's inaccurate is after he's had 10 or 12 regular season games under his belt.  

[row_33]

i believe that putting together an offensive line that can block better than a (very unsensitive descriptive that might offend people) person  who lives on my block...

 

might help accuracy because the QB won't be running for his freaking life roughly  0.2 seconds after the snap

 

it was quite a ride with Tyrod... almost every play...

 

THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!! THROW THE BALL!!!
 

RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!!!!

 

GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!GET DOWN!!!!

 

GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!!

GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!!

GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!!

GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!!

GET TO THE LINE, THERE"S ONLY 30 SECONDS LEFT AND WE ARE DOWN 10 POINTS!!!

 

and then read some punk telling me his % completions was heavenly or some !@#$ing bull **** like that every week

 

I won't miss this at all.

Edited June 8, 2018 by row_33

[freddyjj]

2 examples of guys from college with accuracy issues getting better as pros

 

Matthew Stafford Georgia, 57.1 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Georgia					564	987	57.1	7731	7.8	7.4	51	33	133.3
*2006	Georgia	SEC	FR	QB	13	135	256	52.7	1749	6.8	5.1	7	13	109.0
*2007	Georgia	SEC	SO	QB	13	194	348	55.7	2523	7.3	7.0	19	10	128.9
*2008	Georgia	SEC	JR	QB	13	235	383	61.4	3459	9.0	9.2	25	10	153.5

 

Matt Ryan, BC , 59.9 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Boston College					807	1347	59.9	9313	6.9	6.5	56	37	126.2
*2004	Boston College	Big East	FR	QB	7	35	71	49.3	350	4.9	3.6	2	3	91.5
*2005	Boston College	ACC	SO	QB	10	121	195	62.1	1514	7.8	7.4	8	5	135.7
*2006	Boston College	ACC	JR	QB	12	263	427	61.6	2942	6.9	6.5	15	10	126.4
*2007	Boston College	ACC	SR	QB	14	388	654	59.3	4507	6.9	6.5	31	19	127.0

 

and our QB, Josh Allen, Wyoming, 56.2% Completion %, 2/1 TD/INT ratio

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
*2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8

[Tatonka68]

Completion percentage is NOT a fair way to rate if a QB is accurate or not. Someone has to catch the ball to be completed. How many incomplete passes were dropped? How many passes were thrown out of bounds because no one was open or the QB was under siege? PLEASE, just give him a chance with WR's who can get open and catch and a line which hopefully can block. Allen was the only player drafted from Wyoming.

Edited June 8, 2018 by Tatonka68

[jr1]

you don't draft a project at 7

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Completion percentage is NOT a fair way to rate if a QB is accurate or not. Someone has to catch the ball to be completed. How many incomplete passes were dropped? How many passes were thrown out of bounds because no one was open or the QB was under siege? PLEASE, just give him a chance with WR's who can get open and catch and a line which hopefully can block. Allen was the only player drafted from Wyoming.

Yes, a variety of things can go into having a low completion percentage.   But if you are an inaccurate passer (which several people here believe based on their study) you WILL have a low completion percentage.   So in this case, low completion percentage is at least some support for the notion that he's inaccurate.

 

7 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

2 examples of guys from college with accuracy issues getting better as pros

 

Matthew Stafford Georgia, 57.1 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Georgia					564	987	57.1	7731	7.8	7.4	51	33	133.3
*2006	Georgia	SEC	FR	QB	13	135	256	52.7	1749	6.8	5.1	7	13	109.0
*2007	Georgia	SEC	SO	QB	13	194	348	55.7	2523	7.3	7.0	19	10	128.9
*2008	Georgia	SEC	JR	QB	13	235	383	61.4	3459	9.0	9.2	25	10	153.5

 

Matt Ryan, BC , 59.9 Completion % and 1.33/1 TD/INT ratio

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Boston College					807	1347	59.9	9313	6.9	6.5	56	37	126.2
*2004	Boston College	Big East	FR	QB	7	35	71	49.3	350	4.9	3.6	2	3	91.5
*2005	Boston College	ACC	SO	QB	10	121	195	62.1	1514	7.8	7.4	8	5	135.7
*2006	Boston College	ACC	JR	QB	12	263	427	61.6	2942	6.9	6.5	15	10	126.4
*2007	Boston College	ACC	SR	QB	14	388	654	59.3	4507	6.9	6.5	31	19	127.0

 

and our QB, Josh Allen, Wyoming, 56.2% Completion %, 2/1 TD/INT ratio

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
*2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8

And Stafford was throwing to Knowshon Moreno and AJ Green in college.   

5 minutes ago, jr1 said:

you don't draft a project at 7

Yes you do, if he's a QB   

 

The reason you do is that if you don't, unless you have the #1 pick overall in a year when Andrew Luck is coming out, you'll never a QB in the first round.   

 

The talent is in the first round.   At QB, they're essentially all projects.   

[chris heff]

13 hours ago, 4_kidd_4 said:

58% of all statistics are made up.

That’s my joke and it’s 72%.

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Completion percentage is NOT a fair way to rate if a QB is accurate or not. Someone has to catch the ball to be completed. How many incomplete passes were dropped? How many passes were thrown out of bounds because no one was open or the QB was under siege? PLEASE, just give him a chance with WR's who can get open and catch and a line which hopefully can block. Allen was the only player drafted from Wyoming.

 

To be clear I have never, ever used completion % to justify my accuracy concerns about Allen. 

[4_kidd_4]

17 minutes ago, chris heff said:

That’s my joke and it’s 72%.

 

Yeah, well, 83% of ‘your’ jokes are stolen in the first place

[HOUSE]

 

 

Edited June 8, 2018 by THE SLAMMER

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I am not claiming my work is intensely scientific, obviously it is not and I am not a "stats analysis" guy.  But based on my tape study he missed in those circumstances more than the other 5 QBs who went in the first 3 rounds.  

 

Again, as I keep saying I hope I am wrong and I am not wanting to get into pulling the kid's game apart until he has had a chance to play.  I am only trying to contribute what I saw to this thread. Because ultimately to me Josh will live or die in the NFL by his accuracy - it is the single question I have but it is the most important question for me on any QB prospect.  

I agree with this last paragraph

[BB@Shooter]

11 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Accuracy issues seem to be rarely fixed and, like others have said, it depends on what they stem from.

 

It's well-documented in film scouting reports before the draft (Matt Waldman, Voch Lombardi, Cover1, etc.) that Allen has accuracy issues stemming from beyond just lower body mechanics. Sometimes his mechanics are sound and he still just misses. No explanation.

 

That will not be correctable.

 

How much of that gap he can bridge is yet to be determined.

 

Fingers crossed.

And what about when his mechanics are bad and he is perfectly on? Or when they are good and he is on? You make it sounds like he hits the bench with every other throw. Why not wait to see him throw the ball and use that? Or does that make too much sense? To actually see if he is better than what your mind has conjured up? Instead of taking information you selectively used to push your agenda? Their are professionals out there that are saying he will be very good, or has a chance at it. 

I watched Lombardi break down Allens film. Is the guy on downers or something?  That was hard to get through. Why did you leave out the good stuff Lombardi had to say? Oh right, it didn't fit your agenda. Funny how that works. I don't recall watching Walkman break down Allen, I will have to look for that. Why can't you guys wait to see Allen in person? You are only taking the information ou there that is negative and using it. Poor way of doing it, especially when he is a Bill. Wouldn't it be better if he suprised you and made the Bills better?

[Tatonka68]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

To be clear I have never, ever used completion % to justify my accuracy concerns about Allen. 

Then how you do get the idea he is inaccurate? The "EXPERTS??". LOL Please just watch him yourself. Looks pretty damn accurate to me.