Questions about 2018 Roster

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I think McCarron is gonna take chances and shots down field and really open up the offense for us. Probably more turnovers, but also more fun to watch he has something to prove and that can be dangerous. I think our defense will be much improved from the flashes we had last year we solidified allot of needs especially on the dline and Edmunds will probably take a lil bit, but he is a huge upgrade from what we had. Running backs I would have to say improved and I know Ivory is not a world beater but still better than Tolbert. Our WR core the jury is still out on we didn't do allot to improve it and just need Zay to get it going and we could be in pretty good shape. Our O-line looks like it could be worse, but we are changing our blocking scheme back to similarly when we had the #1 rushing attack and if they can gel we could be alright.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:01 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure that even the Bills are as optimistic as you are. I think that long-term the QB play is better but it is likely to be worse this year. The RB position is a year older running behind a worse OL. The pass catchers are the same as they were before, bad. 

 

The defense should improve. They have a chance to be good. This team looks like it takes a step back to me. I’m fine with that as long as Allen is the guy.

 

Agreed.  Very few rookie QB "light it up" their first year.  Those that do typically have a top-notch OL and at least one Ace or two Very Good WR.

Even if Allen is great long term, the chances of "learning curve" this year are high.

 

Or put it another way, as Marv Levy once said "I hate rookies.  They make mistakes, all of them"

[prissythecat]

3 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

I think McCarron is gonna take chances and shots down field and really open up the offense for us. Probably more turnovers, but also more fun to watch he has something to prove and that can be dangerous. I think our defense will be much improved from the flashes we had last year we solidified allot of needs especially on the dline and Edmunds will probably take a lil bit, but he is a huge upgrade from what we had. Running backs I would have to say improved and I know Ivory is not a world beater but still better than Tolbert. Our WR core the jury is still out on we didn't do allot to improve it and just need Zay to get it going and we could be in pretty good shape. Our O-line looks like it could be worse, but we are changing our blocking scheme back to similarly when we had the #1 rushing attack and if they can gel we could be alright.

 

 

What are you basing this on ?   As I recall, the Bengals offense didn't exactly take off with him at the helm,

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

I think McCarron is gonna take chances and shots down field and really open up the offense for us. Probably more turnovers, but also more fun to watch he has something to prove and that can be dangerous. I think our defense will be much improved from the flashes we had last year we solidified allot of needs especially on the dline and Edmunds will probably take a lil bit, but he is a huge upgrade from what we had. Running backs I would have to say improved and I know Ivory is not a world beater but still better than Tolbert. Our WR core the jury is still out on we didn't do allot to improve it and just need Zay to get it going and we could be in pretty good shape. Our O-line looks like it could be worse, but we are changing our blocking scheme back to similarly when we had the #1 rushing attack and if they can gel we could be alright.

 

 I like your optimism and hope you're right.  My concern is, to take shots down field, McCarron needs two things: 1) enough OL to give him a chance 2) someone to catch.  In theory, Benjamin could come back from injury, Zay Jones could start looking like the guy we thought we drafted, and Kerley or some committee of young WR could be servicable.  But we just have to see how it shakes out.

 

 

[HappyDays]

Wasn't sure where else to post this:

 

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Just now, prissythecat said:

 

 

What are you basing this on ?   As I recall, the Bengals offense didn't exactly take off with him at the helm,

Well in the 3 games that AJ played he was up and down. He had some good and some bad. He wasn't afraid to throw the ball down the field though good or bad. I didn't see him hold the ball forever and run around and get tackled for a 15 yard loss allot. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

What are you basing this on ?   As I recall, the Bengals offense didn't exactly take off with him at the helm,

 

I could be mistaken, but I think he's comparing him as a pocket-passer to Tyrod.  It's probably reasonable, based on 2015 film, to think that McCarron can run a better NFL passing game than Taylor did - given an OL and WR.  Whether that translates to more offensive productivity will depend upon if he's further developed since then and can do the good stuff he showed more often and the bad stuff less.

 

 

[Bing Bong]

Dangit I already made this thread. Mods merge! /s

[Luxy312]

On 5/8/2018 at 8:40 AM, Tatonka68 said:

1.  Is the quarterback roster better or worse? Better
2. Is the running back roster better/worse? Better.
3. Is the right end/receivers better or worse? Same
4. Is the the offensive line better or worse? Worse.
5. Is the the defensive line better/worse? Better.
6. Is the linebackers better or worse? Better.
7. Is the defensive backs better or worse? Better.

 

If you say that at least 4 out of the 7 have improved why would your expectations be less than 9-7 and playoffs? No backsliding anymore.10-6 and a playoff victory

 

My take with reasoning:
1 - The quarterback roster could be better but could also be worse.  If our QB's are willing to actually throw receivers open, that should give the offense a much better chance of winning games.  Tyrod's 3.3/1.0 TD to INT ratio is really good and also means he wasn't losing us games.  I would call this a wash for now.  If our new QB's can sling it for 4,000 yards and maintain that 3+/1 ratio, they will be better for sure.
2 - The running backs are the same.  The running game lives or dies with McCoy.  Ivory is no different than any other spell back the team has had since McCoy got here.
3 - The receiving group is the same for me as well and for the same reason.  The top-3 guys (Benjamin, Jones, Clay) are the same top-3 guys we had last year.  They could look a lot better if our QB situation looks better, but it doesn't change their quality.
4 - The offensive line is the same.  Dawkins played LT last year, so losing Glenn is irrelevant.  Groy played Center with Wood out.  Mills, Ducasse, and Miller rounded out the line last year and that doesn't appear to have changed at all.  I don't know how you can get better or worse with the SAME guys lining up on Sunday.
5 - Big changes to the defensive line lead me to believe they will be better.  Let's be honest that Dareus never lived up to his potential.  They didn't need a $100m run stopper.  Lotulelei is better than anything they had last year.  Trent Murphy was a 9 sack guy just a couple years ago before his ACL injury.  Harrison Phillips could see a lot of snaps as well in his rookie season.  I can list the rest, but they're the same, but for another year of experience from Lawson.
6 - For Linebackers, there is much change as well.  I thought Edmunds was the best linebacker in the 2018 draft.  I understand that a lot of people liked Smith better, but my question about him is his size.  I don't doubt his speed or effort, but question whether he can actually cover big TE's (hint: there's one in the AFC East that I'm most concerned with).
7 - for defensive backs, I would also say that it could be better but could also be worse.  Replacing Gaines with Davis could be better if Davis shows some of his younger form and is able to suit up for most or all of the season.  If Davis plays like he did last year, I think the secondary is worse.

If the front 7 are in fact better, that will take pressure off of the defensive backs and make the defense as a whole better than it was last year.  We have to keep in mind that the defense overall was average last season.  You could only say they were above average based on turnovers.  Yards and points allowed were middle of the pack.  Getting to 9+ wins will most certainly require better or at least equivalent quarterback play.  I can't say with a straight face that we definitely improved in 4 out of 7 of these categories, unless I unleash my inner homer.

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, Bray Wyatt said:

for people saying our WR group is worse, is it because Thompson left? I dont see how it got worse, granted its not good but that doesnt mean it got worse than last year

 

2017:

Kelvin Benjamin

Jordan Matthews

Zay Jones

Deonte Thompson

Andre Holmes

 

2018:

Kelvin Benjamin

Zay Jones

Jeremy Kerley

Andre Holmes

Ray-Ray McCloud

 

Comparing them this way, I'd say:

Benjamin = Benjamin

Matthews > Zay

Last year's Zay < Kerley

Thompson > Holmes

Holmes > McCloud

 

I think the WR corps pretty much got worse across the board with the exception of adding Kerley as a slot guy. I think this year's WR corps will be more productive in terms of raw output due to the scheme changes, but talent-wise, they've gotten worse IMO. Having said that, the only WR on the roster I really care about long-term is Benjamin and maybe Zay, and I think Benjamin is a far better fit for Allen than he was Tyrod and Daboll can't possibly use Zay in a worse way than Dennison did, so from that sense, things are looking up.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by DCOrange

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

2017:

Kelvin Benjamin

Jordan Matthews

Zay Jones

Deonte Thompson

Andre Holmes

Brandon Tate

 

2018:

Kelvin Benjamin

Zay Jones

Jeremy Kerley

Andre Holmes

Ray Ray McCloud

Rod Streater

Eh, are we counting a hobbled Benjamin that didn't play much in 2017 for us? Also, I'd imagine Streater is ahead of McCloud for now.

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Bray Wyatt]

32 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Eh, are we counting a hobbled Benjamin that didn't play much in 2017 for us? Also, I'd imagine Streater is ahead of McCloud for now.

 

 

Also Jordan Mathews didnt do much for us, Zay cant really get any worse, only real loss in production is Deonte Thompson who we got in the middle of the year. I think with a second year Zay and healthier Benjamin I dont see it as being worse

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Also Jordan Mathews didnt do much for us, Zay cant really get any worse, only real loss in production is Deonte Thompson who we got in the middle of the year. I think with a second year Zay and healthier Benjamin I dont see it as being worse

Jordan Matthews had the 2nd highest snap count of all the WRs on our roster last year, despite missing time. I guess Benjamin actually had more snaps than Tate too, though.

[Bray Wyatt]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Jordan Matthews had the 2nd highest snap count of all the WRs on our roster last year, despite missing time. I guess Benjamin actually had more snaps than Tate too, though.

 

its not like 25 catches for 282 yds and 1 td is irreplaceable though

Edited May 9, 2018 by Bray Wyatt

[DCOrange]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Eh, are we counting a hobbled Benjamin that didn't play much in 2017 for us? Also, I'd imagine Streater is ahead of McCloud for now.

 

 

I'm really just looking at it from a talent perspective, not from a "Was Benjamin healthy/will Benjamin be healthy this year?" perspective. Regarding Streater vs. McCloud, I don't think it really matters.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

 

I'm really just looking at it from a talent perspective, not from a "Was Benjamin healthy/will Benjamin be healthy this year?" perspective. Regarding Streater vs. McCloud, I don't think it really matters.

Oh, I get it. I just think the answer varies depending on when you take your snapshot of last year.

Pre-season? Matthews, Jones, Holmes, Tate

Week 8? Matthews, Jones, Thompson, Holmes, Tate

Week 15? Benjamin, Thompson, Jones, Tate

 

You catch my drift.

[FLFan]

On May 8, 2018 at 10:01 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure that even the Bills are as optimistic as you are. I think that long-term the QB play is better but it is likely to be worse this year. The RB position is a year older running behind a worse OL. The pass catchers are the same as they were before, bad. 

 

The defense should improve. They have a chance to be good. This team looks like it takes a step back to me. I’m fine with that as long as Allen is the guy.

A matter of perspective I guess.  Your conclusion is a reasonable one, but I see it differently:

 

1. Pass offense - hard to be worse than 31st, but possible I guess.  I think they are better from a passing offense perspective at QB.  Although they will miss the occasional spectacular improvisional play from Taylor, this can be made up by having an actual passing QB.  We will see.  A healthy Benjamin and year 2 for Jones makes this immediately better, assuming Benjamin can remain in the lineup and Jones does take a step.  Assumptions but not unreasonable.  I like the potential of Streeter and a few of the younger guys.  Not world beaters but adequate.  Certainly no worse than last year.  Better depending on Benjamin.  TE - serviceable if not spectacular.

2. OL  - Losing Incognito hurts.  Not clear whether any of others can step up.  Woods was good, but not dominant and could be replaced by Groy fairly easily based on past experience, and Bodine could also factor in.  Not worried there.  Dawkins had already supplanted Glenn.  RT no change.  We drafted a very promising rookie guard.  I do not believe the doom and gloom around the OL is warranted.

3. RB - Older, yes, but I believe better depth than last year.  If Shady goes down, its all over.  Same as it has been.

4. Defense - agree - should be better.

 

Probably just a glass half full guy, but I think this team is improved.  That does not guarantee results of course - they got some breaks last year - but I see them as competitive for the playoffs, and certainly not championship caliber.  6 to 10 win range depending on the breaks.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2018 by MDFan

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Oh, I get it. I just think the answer varies depending on when you take your snapshot of last year.

Pre-season? Matthews, Jones, Holmes, Tate

Week 8? Matthews, Jones, Thompson, Holmes, Tate

Week 15? Benjamin, Thompson, Jones, Tate

 

You catch my drift.

 

Yeah, definitely. Even further into the preseason and Sammy was still around wasn't he? It's definitely a tough comparison to make.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Yeah, definitely. Even further into the preseason and Sammy was still around wasn't he? It's definitely a tough comparison to make.

Yep.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:50 AM, ddaryl said:

We need ot see the product on the field because every single one of those questions is still a question IMO

 

Except the RB question.  Tolbert is addition by subtraction....  if I ever see someone that big and slow running parallel to the LoS again, it better be a pulling guard 

Edited May 9, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[John from Riverside]

It’s all about the qb

if Allen hits the team is immediately better

[Tatonka68]

21 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Did you just become a Bills fan in 2017?

1978. Does this change that Tyro d sucks? NO!

21 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, no one is talking about Tyrod but you. We are just challenging the notion that McCarron is any sort of upgrade based on what he has done. You pick random things that you hated about Tyrod as your proof and bury your head in the sand regarding McCarron’s struggles at the pro level. He has actually been a worse pro, with better surrounding talent, than Taylor. There is a reason that he is making half of McCown, about 28% of Tyrod, 1/6th of Ryan, etc...The league has spoken pretty loudly.

 

Now if you are referring to Allen we can discuss. He has massive upside and if he comes close to his potential he is absolutely an upgrade. That likely isn’t going to happen this year. If it does, fantastic!! The Bills even know that they are likely taking a step back to take a step forward. That’s why they keep saying things like, “this isn’t going to happen overnight.” 

 

The frustrating thing about discussing this with you is that you stick your fingers in your ears and scream “LA LA LA LA LA LA LA, I CANT HEAR YOU.” If you want to do that it’s up to you but that doesn’t strengthen your argument.

 

While we are at it I don’t understand how you believe the RB position will be better? Ivory is maybe a slight upgrade from Tolbert but Shady is a year older and they are running behind a significantly worse OL. They lost a Pro Bowl LG, a former Pro Bowl C and one of the highest paid OTs in the league (despite his injury problems). How do you see that RB group improving??

Random  things,l like he didn't score any points. Very random. McCarran won two national titles and will not be scared to throw to receivers who are not wide open. Try actually watching tape of McCarron instead of waddling in your man crush of a player who was BENCHED last year than TRADED away.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Tatonka68

[Kirby Jackson]

28 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

1978. Does this change that Tyro d sucks? NO!

Random  things,l like he didn't score any points. Very random. McCarran won two national titles and will not be scared to throw to receivers who are not wide open. Try actually watching tape of McCarron instead of waddling in your man crush of a player who was BENCHED last year than TRADED away.

Ha ha, yeah the Bills desperately need to throw the ball to receivers that aren’t open. Ha ha, quit while you’re behind.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

1978. Does this change that Tyro d sucks? NO!

I guess you don't like it when the Bills score points...

[Tatonka68]

4 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I guess you don't like it when the Bills score points...

You mean the 3 points they scored in the Wild card game?????

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Ha ha, yeah the Bills desperately need to throw the ball to receivers that aren’t open. Ha ha, quit while you’re behind.

Ever here of a 50/50 ball. I guess not. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

You mean the 3 points they scored in the Wild card game?????

No, I mean the 2 years of top 10 DVOA offenses and 2 of the top 10 scoring offenses in the team's history.

[SoCal Deek]

Wow, that list of receivers reads like a grab bag of mediocrity alright.  I still find it hard to believe that an entire receiving corp could be so decimated in so short a time.  I remember when it was considered one of the strengths of the Team with Watkins, Woods, and Clay.  Fast forward a couple of years and....yikes!  The Bills better hope against hope that Zay Jones gets it figured out, and fast! 

[JohnC]

On ‎5‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 10:01 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure that even the Bills are as optimistic as you are. I think that long-term the QB play is better but it is likely to be worse this year. The RB position is a year older running behind a worse OL. The pass catchers are the same as they were before, bad. 

 

The defense should improve. They have a chance to be good. This team looks like it takes a step back to me. I’m fine with that as long as Allen is the guy.

I'm in the same vicinity as you are but with some differences. Our receiving corps is in general from a league standpoint mediocre at best. I believe a healthy Benjamin playing with another functional veteran receiver will make this unit  better than it was last year. I am not giving up on Zay. I still believe that he can be solid. He should be healthy and motivated entering this season. His production in college was too good for him to completely fall off the cliff entering the next season. 

 

I'm not saying this to purposely antagonize you but I consider McCarron an upgrade over TT because I believe that he can run a pro offense that includes progressions and rhythm throws. That in itself should benefit the receivers. 

 

My concern is the same as it is for most others i.e. the OL. The Incognito loss is more damaging than the Eric Wood loss. The ability of McCarron to make quick reads and throws should help out the OL in pass protection. 

 

I see the rebuild moving forward but I don't consider this a playoff team. It's not how Allen comes along this upcoming season but how he progresses into his second and third year. 

[Tatonka68]

4 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

No, I mean the 2 years of top 10 DVOA offenses and 2 of the top 10 scoring offenses in the team's history.

• 3 points in playoff game.
• 56 total yards passing against the Saints.
• 0 offensive TD's in two games against the Patriots.
• benched and traded by McBean.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Tatonka68

[Infinitum]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:40 AM, Tatonka68 said:

1.  Is the quarterback roster better or worse? Better
2. Is the running back roster better/worse? Better.
3. Is the right end/receivers better or worse? Same
4. Is the the offensive line better or worse? Worse.
5. Is the the defensive line better/worse? Better.
6. Is the linebackers better or worse? Better.
7. Is the defensive backs better or worse? Better.

 

If you say that at least 4 out of the 7 have improved why would your expectations be less than 9-7 and playoffs? No backsliding anymore.10-6 and a playoff victory

 

They had a good O-Line last year, this up coming season it has the potential to be one of the worst in the NFL.  I don't think we'll see 9 wins.

[BuffaloHokie13]

37 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

• 3 points in playoff game.
• 56 total yards passing against the Saints.
• 0 offensive TD's in two games against the Patriots.
• benched and traded by McBean.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Why do you keep bringing up entire seasons?!? Why don’t you just isolate a few specific games/moments that prove your point and ignore the other 98%? Don’t you know how to support your argument?!?

[Tatonka68]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Why do you keep bringing up entire seasons?!? Why don’t you just isolate a few specific games/moments that prove your point and ignore the other 98%? Don’t you know how to support your argument?!?

Padding stat's against bad teams then throwing for 56  total yards against the Saints, and can't score against play-off teams. Seems McBean doesn't hold your opinion and your precisions Tyrod is not on the roster.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Tatonka68

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Tatonka68 said:

Padding stat's against bad teams then throwing for 56  total yards against the Saints, and can't score against play-off teams. Seems McLean doesn't hold your opinion and your precisions Tyrod is not on the roster.

I’m so confused by everything you say. The Bills decided to pay their placeholder $3M + a 3rd round pick instead of $16M. You understand that right? It was a good decision. No one is arguing that. You need to see the whole picture though not what fits your narrative. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Why do you keep bringing up entire seasons?!? Why don’t you just isolate a few specific games/moments that prove your point and ignore the other 98%? Don’t you know how to support your argument?!?

What I found really interesting was that the 90's teams on that list all valued Thurman more than Kelly. In fact, Taylor is the only QB to have the highest AV on the team of any of those top 10 scoring years.

[Bray Wyatt]

Lets be honest, the strength of those scoring teams was based on the run game, not TT and the passing game (yes TT did help the run game)

 

Also, we are not running that offense any more so to bring up a possible improvement by replacing AJM with TT and trying to state that it wont happen because of those teams seems disingenuous 

 

I do think its possible that AJM could do better than what TT did last year, he could also be worse. I dont think you can at this point say definitively one way or the other

[BuffaloHokie13]

26 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Lets be honest, the strength of those scoring teams was based on the run game, not TT and the passing game (yes TT did help the run game)

 

Also, we are not running that offense any more so to bring up a possible improvement by replacing AJM with TT and trying to state that it wont happen because of those teams seems disingenuous 

 

I do think its possible that AJM could do better than what TT did last year, he could also be worse. I dont think you can at this point say definitively one way or the other

Get back to me when he leads the Bills to 400 points.

Edited May 11, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13

[Bray Wyatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Get back to me when he leads the Bills to 400 points.

 

The point of the therad was comparing this roster to last years, what you are saying is irrelevant as last years team did not put up 400

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Bray Wyatt said:

The point of the therad was comparing this roster to last years, what you are saying is irrelevant as last years team did not put up 400

No, it's comparing the position groups now to the previous position groups. The QB had been here for more than 2017, much like the OL and the MLB.

[Bray Wyatt]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

No, it's comparing the position groups now to the previous position groups. The QB had been here for more than 2017, much like the OL and the MLB.

 

But you arent making an apples to apples comparison, this is not the same offense with the same personnel that TT had in those years.

 

You can go back two years if you like to think that somehow makes a better comparison, I will stick with the more recent. Asking AJM to put up 400 pts in order to be an equivalent to what TT did (which seems to be your implication) in a different offense that what TT did is not a good comparison