Lurker Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, eball said: Good lord. Right back at ya. If you think Allen wasn't a leap of faith by this FO, then I got some nice bridges to sell you. Every pick is a leap of faith. Some are the size of the Grand Canyon, others are more managable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Lurker said: Right back at ya. If you think Allen wasn't a leap of faith by this FO, then I got some nice bridges to sell you. Every pick is a leap of faith. Some are the size of the Grand Canyon, others are more managable... You said blind faith. Which is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 21 minutes ago, eball said: You said blind faith. Which is absurd. Love is blind. And this FO clearly loves Allen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lurker said: Love is blind. And this FO clearly loves Allen... That is a common view and everyone can understand why people believe it. I think love is often insightful and more discerning than say, apathy or dislike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Dr. Who said: That is a common view and everyone can understand why people believe it. I think love is often insightful and more discerning than say, apathy or dislike. Well, since 40% to 50% of married couples in the United States eventually divorce, it's a crap shoot... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Epstein's Mother said: I have seen this posted by a number of people. I started thinking about it and I couldn't come up with an example of a QB drafted high that was started too early and it ruined his career. If you're thinking of some specific examples please share them with me. I'm not harping on you I just can't think of any. There aren't any. Elway: 47% comp rate, 1:2 TD:INT ratio Namath: 47% Comp rate Bradshaw 37% comp rate Manning, P: led the NFL in INTs, 3-13 season plenty more where that came from. The only selection against this was Carr ... if you have the ability to play, you will rise above the circumstances of your first year. If you don't, you probably never had the right stuff anyways. I'm not worried about failures in the first year. This is one kid that seems pretty resilient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbbillsfan Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 One thing I think is an interesting exercise is to compare the Quarterbacks vs. Their Backups (assuming they got any meaningful playing time). In some ways, I think this is more valuable than comparing the QB's statistically against each other as so much of stats is affected by system, supporting players, coaching ect." Josh Allen: Passing Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Josh Allen 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8 2 Nick Smith 40 74 54.1 471 6.4 5.7 2 2 111.0 Clearly, Josh Allen outperforms his backup (to be expected...)and both had fairly low. Also, this is from Allen's most recent season (his down season). Wyoming was 0-2 with Nick smith and 8-3 with Allen. Josh Rosen: Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Josh Rosen 283 452 62.6 3756 8.3 8.5 26 10 147.0 2 Devon Modster 51 79 64.6 671 8.5 9.5 4 0 152.6 Interesting to see that Devon Modster (who is a good qb in his own right) had slightly better stats than Rosen. However, UCLA did go 1-3 with Modster as a starter and 5-4 with Rosen. Sam Darnold Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Sam Darnold 246 366 67.2 3086 8.4 9.0 31 9 161.1 2 Max Browne 58 93 62.4 507 5.5 4.9 2 2 111.0 This is from Sam's stellar freshman year, as he played nearly all snaps this past year. He outperfoms former #1 H.S. QB recruit Max Browne by a fairly wide margin. Darnold was my #1 QB in the draft (i think Beane's too) and this helps support that. Baker Mayfield Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 1 Baker Mayfield 285 404 70.5 4627 11.5 12.9 43 6 198.9 2 Kyler Murray 18 21 85.7 359 17.1 20.0 3 0 276.5 Obviously a very small sample size as Baker didn't miss much time in his college career. However, every time Murray played he did exceptionally well. Can't help but make you consider if some of Baker's lofty stats have to do with his situation. This exercise would take a lot more consideration, analyzing game logs, considering opponents ect. However, I do think it is interesting that only Josh Allen and Sam Darnold seemed to clearly outperform their backup, albeit Darnold in a more convincing manner. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) I feel like no one listens to Rich The Bull Genzler but he does bring on “The Godfather” If Buffalo Sports Radio Vic Carucci from time to time. Here he drops knowledge and defends the Bills for drafting Josh Allen. His main point is - let the pros do their job. The Bills thought Josh Allen was the better fit. Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football. To which Genzler was like “thank you...thank you.” LOL 12 minute segment - the part I reference starts around 1:00 http://stationcaster.com/stations/wgrf/media/mp3/Vic_Carucci-1525094720.mp3 Edited April 30, 2018 by BuffaloRush 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptnCoke11 Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 So many fans take these so called ESPN/NFLN analysts words as bible. It’s kinda sad. They for their options solely off what those people say. Also see slog od people referencing these second rate websites like walterfootball and basing their opinions off of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 34 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: I feel like no one listens to Rich The Bull Genzler but he does bring on “The Godfather” If Buffalo Sports Radio Vic Carucci from time to time. Here he drops knowledge and defends the Bills for drafting Josh Allen. His main point is - let the pros do their job. The Bills thought Josh Allen was the better fit. Most fans and “experts” who were critical on social media really don’t know much about football. To which Genzler was like “thank you...thank you.” LOL 12 minute segment - the part I reference starts around 11:00 http://stationcaster.com/stations/wgrf/media/mp3/Vic_Carucci-1525094720.mp3 You mean around 1:00 (One minute) Not at 11 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCBills_OG Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 While I understand these ESPN/NFLN analysts aren't the "end all be all" of knowledge regarding a player and his bust/boom potential.....they do boast a higher percentage of being right than they do being of being wrong about players....hence my my proclivity for listening to and taking just a little bit of stock in their criticisms...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrotherChazz Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Fans have enough trouble agreeing on if a player is any good AFTER he plays, let along before he even puts on a uniform. It's all silly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 (edited) People in modern society really struggle with interpreting the meaning of opinions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion regarding Josh Allen at this point. There is no right or wrong answer. Beane, Vic Carucci, and everyone on this board actually have no idea how Allen’s career will turn out. Shutting down others opinions at this point is ignorant. No one is right or wrong. Sadly, people like Carucci feel the need to assert their beliefs as being the truth of those who are intellectually superior. Edited April 30, 2018 by DriveFor1Outta5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, DCBills_OG said: While I understand these ESPN/NFLN analysts aren't the "end all be all" of knowledge regarding a player and his bust/boom potential.....they do boast a higher percentage of being right than they do being of being wrong about players....hence my my proclivity for listening to and taking just a little bit of stock in their criticisms...... Do they? I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage. Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself and put it out here, and on anyone's blog that is willing to host it. I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself. When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Do they? I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage. Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself. I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself. When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. There was some data on here before the draft and showed some of these guys are really not that great. If someone can dig it up I'd like to see it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Do they? I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage. Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself. I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself. When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. By that same token, the majority of the GMs in the NFL don't have 10 years of their boards under scrutiny. Do you think if Doug Whaley was on TV next to Mayock for 10 years he'd be substantially better? I don't. 2 minutes ago, horned dogs said: There was some data on here before the draft and showed some of these guys are really not that great. If someone can dig it up I'd like to see it myself. You know who else isn't that great? Just about every GM in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Just now, jmc12290 said: By that same token, the majority of the GMs in the NFL don't have 10 years of their boards under scrutiny. Do you think if Doug Whaley was on TV next to Mayock for 10 years he'd be substantially better? I don't. I think if I had to listen to Doug Whaley on TV for 10 years I would do something self-destructive, highly irresponsible, or throw the TV out the window. Or all 3. Seriously, the undiscussed "elephant in the room" is all the resources that teams put into scouting players and building their draft board. I would be surprised if any of these media draft pundits have 1/10 the resources that an NFL team puts into it - why should they? They're for entertainment, it's a GMs bread-and-butter. So even if a guy is knowledgeable, has an eye for talent, and puts some serious daily effort into watching available games and maybe gets coaches film - it's still only a fraction of the boots-on-the-floor and time and effort a pro team has, and the results reflect that. So no, I don't think he'd be substantially better, but there's a reason for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, DCBills_OG said: While I understand these ESPN/NFLN analysts aren't the "end all be all" of knowledge regarding a player and his bust/boom potential.....they do boast a higher percentage of being right than they do being of being wrong about players....hence my my proclivity for listening to and taking just a little bit of stock in their criticisms...... A lot of them like him too, so need to take them all into account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCBills_OG Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Do they? I would love to see an objective assessment of their percentage. Heck, get me the data - get me 4 years of Mayock or Kiper or whoevers drafts from at least 2 years ago (eg 2012-2016 or older) and I'll do the assessment myself and put it out here, and on anyone's blog that is willing to host it. I don't think it's that high a percentage, myself. When they gush about Jamarcus Russell or Blaine Gabbert or Jimmy Clausen or Johnny Manziel or Ryan Leaf, no one knocks on their door 2 years later and asks them to clean out their office. higher percentage is different than high percentage. I did not say they had a high percentage with regards to being correct on boom/bust status. I said they have a "higher precentage" of being correct versus being wrong. That could be 51% correct and 49% wrong...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Just now, DCBills_OG said: higher percentage is different than high percentage. I did not say they had a high percentage with regards to being correct on boom/bust status. I said they have a "higher precentage" of being correct versus being wrong. That could be 51% correct and 49% wrong...... DC, 51% correct would actually be a very high percentage, a higher percentage than most GMs. Overall, at the top 5-6 picks of the draft, you get something like 50% success, by the end of the 1st/top of the 2nd it falls to 30%, by the 5th round more like 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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