Myth that we traded up to 12 to grab a QB

[CountDorkula]

49 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Isit though?

no. most people you talk to (Experts) say there are only 20-21 true first round talents.

[maryland-bills-fan]

2 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

"7 quality players on cheap contracts"  Most teams can't even hit on 3rd round picks not to mention once again ignoring the QB position is ridiculous.

 

What is this chart?

[What a Tuel]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

What is this chart?

 

Draft pick retention by team up to 2017 offseason.

[HappyDays]

I mean the OP is right about the Glenn trade. It wasn't only done in service of a trade up into the top 5, otherwise we wouldn't have done it until we knew we had another deal in place. We traded Glenn because he didn't fit on the team anymore and we got a good offer.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....15 minutes between 21 & 22 isn't much time to work a deal..........gets value for Glenn by moving to 12, now has more time to watch things unfold if wheeling 'n dealing is needed AND have a shot at HIS QB if targeting one of the top dawgs............

[teef]

8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

All joking aside I don’t know why anyone would want to trade up for a QB when the greatest QB ever was picked in the 6th. The best strategy is to wait for your 6th round pick, maybe even trade down a little, and then draft the next Tom Brady. Good QBs go in the top 10 but historically great QBs go 199.

there's a definite trend of all the best qbs being taken in the bottom rounds.  i don't know why the bills would be so arrogant and go against this.

[ALLEN1QB]

Zero chance guarantee you they take a quarterback it's time to find Jim Kelly's replacement been long enough

[Seanbillsfan2206]

13 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

"7 quality players on cheap contracts"  Most teams can't even hit on 3rd round picks not to mention once again ignoring the QB position is ridiculous.

 

This almost gave me a seizure 

[Captain Caveman]

I think it's a lot more believable if we still have Tyrod.  We are not going into this season with AJ Mcwhatever as our only option at QB.

[KDIGGZ]

30 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills traded to 12 to secure the most pro-ready QB in the draft, John O’Korn.

ah yes, that sneaky Jim Harbaugh hiding the best QB in the draft on the 3rd string so brother John can get his franchise QB

[atomicpwrd]

These threads crack me up...why did they do this, or that...I will tell you why, to make the Bills a better team.  They probably wanted to unload Glenn because of lack of playing time and high salary.  So, you dump him and get good value.  It improves your draft stock and cap situation which is a win for the team.  It gives you flexibility and a better opportunity to trade up if the situation presents itself.  The truth of the matter is that when all these moves were made, there was no crystal ball to tell them what prospect would be available when, but improving your draft position only helps your situation.  Now if they can find a trade partner, its easier to move up...if that doesn't happen, they get a prospect with a higher chance for a successful career...again it makes the Bills a better team.  You can't judge this draft solely on the fact that they are able to move up and get one of the big 4 QB's because it takes 2 to tango.  Maybe they stay put and Rudolph is the next Big Ben.  I wouldn't even care if they "reach" for him at 12 to be sure they get him...if they like him that much.  In any event, Beane will do whatever he feels is best for the team under the circumstances that present themselves on draft day...or before.

[SouthNYfan]

14 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes we need to draft a QB.  But how do you know that is why they got more draft picks?  It is a reason why, but not the only reason why they might do that.   Sometimes you do something because it is the right thing to do for several reasons.  I don't go thu a red light because.... a may get a ticket,,,, I may get T-boned by a truck,,,,,, its a bad example for my kids,,,,,, I don't want to get flipped off by somebody who was coming the other way........ I can't afford another ticket or higher insurance.....   

 

Really?

You truly think that they sold all those assets and passed on two QBs last year, then passed on the the FA market just to not take QB?

Just stop with the hypothetical bs.

 

The op is proposing the idea that they didn't intend to get a QB this year.

That's just plain wrong.

 

Will they get a QB? 

We don't know until the draft, but if they don't get one, it's because no trades came up that they were able to bite on, or nobody was available that they felt good enough about drafting in that spot.

 

It's a colossal failure of  "the process" if they don't get a QB and they know it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, jahbonas said:

Beane moved up to 12 not necessarily to get closer to the top of the draft - he moved because going from 21 to 12 represented the most value (2nd rd pick equivalent) he could acquire for Gordy Glenn. He may very well take the 12th pick and trade back into the 20s and get the extra 2nd rd pick for doing so and let the draft come to him.  This draft is deep picking 22 & 28 and then 3 picks in round2  and then 2 in round 3 would be huge. Locking in 7 quality players for 4/5 years on cheap rookie contracts  - no way you piss that away

 

Beane didnt trade a 2nd rd pick to move up to 12.   He took the best value available to him while unloading Glenn and his big contract - very different.

 

I think you can find truth in what GMs say in their pressers prior to the draft, just like you can find yeast in bread.  It's not a major ingredient, you have to sort out a lot of air and other stuff to find it, but it's there.

So, here is my search for the yeast (truth) among the air and flour of Beane's March and April pressers:

1) Beane doesn't have a draft plan.  He has several draft plans, and he will move between them like a Cirque du Soleil aerialist depending upon what happens

2) "Beane moved up to 12 not necessarily to get closer to the top of the draft" - I think that's false.  He absolutely moved to 12 to get closer to the top of the draft.  He's said so, and I evaluated that statement as "yeast"

3)  rewording as "Beane did not move up to 12 not necessarily to get a QB" - I think that's true.  Being at 12 will help him draft a QB, either one they like who falls, or by further trade ups.  But IF the QB they want is gone or unobtainable by a trade he is willing to do, Beane has other players he really wants who likely are obtainable at 12 but not 20 or 22.

4) "He may very well take the 12th pick and trade back into the 20s" - I seriously doubt that.  Beane has said they're excited by the potential of the players they could obtain at 12.  That sounded like "yeast" to me.  The higher success rate of higher-drafted QB is true across the board of other players, and so is the extra contract year.  They can get a better player at 12, and keep him longer on a rookie deal. 

 

Again, overall - I think Beane is speaking the truth if he says they didn't necessarily trade up to 12 to get a QB.  But I think he absolutely traded up to 12 to get closer to the top of the draft, and if he wanted just an extra 2nd round pick he would have looked for that trade from the start, going for the highest 2nd rounder he could get.**

 

I think Beane has several plans.  In at least one of them, the Bills will sell the farm and move up for a QB (or possibly 1 of 2 QB) they want.   In at least one of them, the Bills will draft a QB at 12.  And in at least one of them, the Bills don't draft a QB in the 1st round.

It's not inconceivable to me that the Bills might trade back from 12.  But if they do, they will NOT do it for an extra 2nd round pick this year.  They will do it for a 1st next year, if the QB they like this year is not available to them and there is someone they have their eye on next year.

 

**disclosure there could be some personal back-patting involved in this conclusion, since I "called it" that they would trade Glenn to make a move into the high teens before the draft

Edited April 19, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[SouthNYfan]

12 minutes ago, teef said:

there's a definite trend of all the best qbs being taken in the bottom rounds.  i don't know why the bills would be so arrogant and go against this.

 

Eli Manning

Big Ben

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Stafford

Goff

Wentz

Rivers

Matt Ryan

Andrew Luck

Watson

Winston

Mariota

Flacco 

Bortles

Cam Newton

Alex Smith

Mahomes

 

 

 

Might be missing some

That's 16 of the starters being first round picks.

Half the league starters are taken in the first round only.

A few others in the second.

No not all those guys are elite amazing, but overall it's a pretty good group.

 

 

 

 

 

[teef]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Eli Manning

Big Ben

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Stafford

Goff

Wentz

Rivers

Matt Ryan

Andrew Luck

Watson

Winston

Mariota

Flacco 

Bortles

Cam Newton

Alex Smith

Mahomes

 

 

 

Might be missing some

That's 16 of the starters being first round picks.

Half the league starters are taken in the first round only.

A few others in the second.

No not all those guys are elite amazing, but overall it's a pretty good group.

 

 

 

 

 

you know i wasn't being serious...right?

[What a Tuel]

Just now, teef said:

you know i wasn't being serious...right?

 

You never know. Some people on this board won't cede that fact.

[teef]

Just now, What a Tuel said:

 

You never know. Some people on this board won't cede that fact.

very true.  it's hard to tell this time of the year.

[SouthNYfan]

7 minutes ago, teef said:

you know i wasn't being serious...right?

 

6 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

You never know. Some people on this board won't cede that fact.

 

What tuel said.

A lot of people say crap just like what you said teef lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, Estelle Getty said:

I have a little hunch that the Bills like Mccaron more than they let on. If you take his brief NFL career into account he would certainly be a top 3 QB in this class.  He has shown no real weaknesses in his few NFL starts and in the preseason.  He has the size an attitude of a winning NFL QB. 

 

McCarron's 2015 game logs below.

I would personally say inability to rack up more than 200 ypg and 6 ypa, while throwing behind the OL Cincy had in 2015 and to AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, and Mohammed Sanu, would have to be classed, if not as a "weakness", at least as something that needs to improve dramatically for him to be viable as an NFL QB.

 

I have no idea where you come up with the "top 3 QB in this class" thing, even with the games below.  McCarron came out in 2014 and was evaluated behind Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, and Garappolo.  I like AJ, and I would have to say he would still be evaluated behind them all - possibly ahead of Bridgewater, who would now be trailing the pack due to injury derailment.  This year, I think AJ would be tucked in ahead of Mason Rudolph at the top of the 2nd tier - a capable, competent QB with no red flags who played surrounded by talent and who looks as though he might have maxed out his physical potential at a low-NFL-level.  McCarron would get the "nod" over Rudolph because he played in a pro-style offense and made progressions, but no one would put him ahead of Darnold's elite playmaking skills, Rosen's elite passing talent, or Allen's elite physical gifts.  Well, unless they diss off Rosen's "character" concerns enough in which case I say "BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Let's draft Rosen!"

 

									Passing											Rushing
Rk	Date	G#	Age	Tm		Opp	Result	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD
	7 Games						5-2-0		79	119	66.39	854	6	2	97.1	12	63	7.18	7.43	14	31	2.21	0
1	2015-11-05	8	25-053	CIN		CLE	W 31-10		0	0		0	0	0		0	0			2	-2	-1.00	0
2	2015-11-29	11	25-077	CIN		STL	W 31-7		1	1	100.00	3	0	0	79.2	0	0	3.00	3.00	0	0		0
3	2015-12-06	12	25-084	CIN	@	CLE	W 37-3		2	3	66.67	19	0	0	84.0	0	0	6.33	6.33	0	0		0
4	2015-12-13	13	25-091	CIN		PIT	L 20-33		22	32	68.75	280	2	2	90.6	3	18	8.75	7.19	3	8	2.67	0
5	2015-12-20	14	25-098	CIN	@	SFO	W 24-14	*	15	21	71.43	192	1	0	115.6	4	18	9.14	10.10	2	2	1.00	0
6	2015-12-28	15	25-106	CIN	@	DEN	L 17-20	*	22	35	62.86	200	1	0	87.8	2	14	5.71	6.29	4	21	5.25	0
7	2016-01-03	16	25-112	CIN		BAL	W 24-16	*	17	27	62.96	160	2	0	103.9	3	13	5.93	7.41	3	2	0.67	0

25 minutes ago, teef said:

you know i wasn't being serious...right?

 

I thought you were laying your Sar Chasm open before our unwary feet, but it's very hard to tell on this board sometimes.

People seriously bring out the most ...amazing.... views.

[Mickey]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes we need to draft a QB.  But how do you know that is why they got more draft picks?  It is a reason why, but not the only reason why they might do that.   Sometimes you do something because it is the right thing to do for several reasons.  I don't go thu a red light because.... a may get a ticket,,,, I may get T-boned by a truck,,,,,, its a bad example for my kids,,,,,, I don't want to get flipped off by somebody who was coming the other way........ I can't afford another ticket or higher insurance.....   

Saying "we traded up to get a QB" does not = "the only reason we traded up is to get a QB". I don't know anyone who is taking the position that the absolute sole consideration was getting a QB. The fairest and most reasonable interpretation of "we traded up to get a QB" is "the primary reason we traded up was to get a QB".

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you can find truth in what GMs say in their pressers prior to the draft, just like you can find yeast in bread.  It's not a major ingredient, you have to sort out a lot of air and other stuff to find it, but it's there.
 

Excellent analysis but, full disclosure, I am partial to yeast based metaphors so I'm more than a bit biased.