dlonce Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Brooks said ”totally reshuffling the top 5” so that means the Jets also would be moving. Sounds like a complex deal if so. we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, cle23 said: No team is trading from 12 to 1 without giving up a future first. A GM should get fired immediately if he does that trade. Don't overplay your hand bud! You are precariously close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, cle23 said: No team is trading from 12 to 1 without giving up a future first. A GM should get fired immediately if he does that trade. You are getting the 1st!! It is just this year, pick 22. You get fired when you don’t maximize your return. As a Browns fan would you rather have Allen, Chubb and pick 35 or Allen, Chubb, pick 22 & pick 65? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, Kirby Jackson said: That won’t happen because the Bills will go to 6 (as illustrated above). If the Giants go QB at 2 the Bills will trade up to 4. The Bills package blows everyone else’s away. I know that you don’t want to hear that the Browns won’t be getting 3 firsts but they won’t. Tell me a package that the Browns are getting better than 12, 22 and 53 for the 4th pick? I didn't say the Browns wouldn't consider 12, 22 and 53 for number 4. I said no team would get to the 1st pick without a future 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, cle23 said: That or the Bills get shut out completely ,stay at Pick 12 and not get a top quarterback. Cleveland picks at 1, New York picks at 2, the Jets pick a quarterback at 3, and Cleveland auctions off the 4th pick to all the quarterback needy teams out there. The Bills are the team trying to trade up and desperate for a QB. The Bills will still get a QB, and if everyone stays put there's a very good chance the #3 QB will be available at pick #5...And Denver will be listening...At that point 12 and 22 are more than enough... The Bills will get one of the top 5 guys...All they have to do to assure it is to get ahead of Miami...Which is easy...They're not desperate...The only reason this is a thing is because they seemingly love Darnold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: They won't get shut out, they just won't get Darnold. Unlikely Giants take a qb. If Browns, Jets, and Broncos (unlikely, but possible) go for qb, one of the top four is available 6 - 10. Bills will invest less and get a qb. Right. They risk getting the 3rd or 4th best quarterback even with a trade up at that point. They wouldn't be trying to get up to the first pick if they thought all the quarterbacks were equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, HappyDays said: According to that chart 12 and 22 alone are worth the #1 overall pick. Even if you do a 140% premium, both our 2nd rounders in addition would easily get us there, and that would be the highest premium paid in a long time. That doesn't seem right to me. It is right though. When's the last time someone offered 2 1sts in the current year? It has a higher value than people want to believe. Jets got to 3 with a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd valued as a 3rd. That premium was 152%. 12, 22, 53, 65, and our 2019 1st is a 151% premium on the #1 pick. Similarly, if the Bills value future picks over current ones (I don't think the Browns do, I think they want more future picks) we could do 12, 22, 53, 56, and a 2019 2nd for a 150% value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 1 minute ago, cle23 said: I didn't say the Browns wouldn't consider 12, 22 and 53 for number 4. I said no team would get to the 1st pick without a future 1st. You said that the Bills would get shut out of the QB. The package I just gave you is why they won’t. If the Browns take 12, 22 and 53 for 4 they are missing out on Chubb. So, the first scenario (that you are against) has the Browns getting Allen, Chubb, 22 and 65 for 35. In this scenario the Browns get Allen, 12, 22, 53 and keep 35. Would you rather Chubb, 22 & 65 or 12, 22, 35 and 53? You are a Browns fan. Which scenario do you prefer? I know if I were a Browns fan I’d rather Chubb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 1 minute ago, KOKBILLS said: The Bills will still get a QB, and if everyone stays put there's a very good chance the #3 QB will be available at pick #5...And Denver will be listening...At that point 12 and 22 are more than enough... The Bills will get one of the top 5 guys...All they have to do to assure it is to get ahead of Miami...Which is easy...They're not desperate...The only reason this is a thing is because they seemingly love Darnold... Okay I had bad wording in my first statement. They can obviously get one of the top five quarterbacks guaranteed, but they wouldn't be trying to trade into the top two if they thought all the quarterbacks were close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 crazy thought, but what if the Jets do want to get in on the action, seeing as they (possibly) want Mayfield and think they could drop a few spots and still get him while recouping some draft capital? Could the Jets and Broncos trade spots? BUF: Darnold CLE: Allen DEN: Barkley NYG: Chubb NYJ: Mayfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, cle23 said: Right. They risk getting the 3rd or 4th best quarterback even with a trade up at that point. They wouldn't be trying to get up to the first pick if they thought all the quarterbacks were equal. No doubt. Darnold is the apple of their eye, apparently, and I don't blame them. But I think there are four solid qbs at the top of the draft. Everyone has a price point. Bills will offer what is feasible to them and Browns will accept or reject. I don't think the 2019 1st is self-evidently necessary to get to 1. If it is, I have no idea if Bills are willing to pay the price. I would be reticent, but I'm not the GM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 maybe the Bills are only willing to push the chips to the center of the table for one guy (Darnold) Otherwise, it's close enough to make a more modest trade to #6 or #7 and take one of the other guys they see as the next tier? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, TheFunPolice said: maybe the Bills are only willing to push the chips to the center of the table for one guy (Darnold) Otherwise, it's close enough to make a more modest trade to #6 or #7 and take one of the other guys they see as the next tier? I think that this is probably true and even still they have a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, cle23 said: Okay I had bad wording in my first statement. They can obviously get one of the top five quarterbacks guaranteed, but they wouldn't be trying to trade into the top two if they thought all the quarterbacks were close. Fair enough... But I'm sure they're realistic too...Darnold was pipe dream a few weeks ago, and no one is talking about this at all unless the Allen to the Browns and Barkley to the Giants rumors weren't running wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, TheFunPolice said: maybe the Bills are only willing to push the chips to the center of the table for one guy (Darnold) Otherwise, it's close enough to make a more modest trade to #6 or #7 and take one of the other guys they see as the next tier? TFP as simple and as straight forward as you post is above I believe it is virtually spot on. i think they are willing to give their left you know what for him, but otherwise are only reasonably interested in moving for the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cle23 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: You said that the Bills would get shut out of the QB. The package I just gave you is why they won’t. If the Browns take 12, 22 and 53 for 4 they are missing out on Chubb. So, the first scenario (that you are against) has the Browns getting Allen, Chubb, 22 and 65 for 35. In this scenario the Browns get Allen, 12, 22, 53 and keep 35. Would you rather Chubb, 22 & 65 or 12, 22, 35 and 53? You are a Browns fan. Which scenario do you prefer? I know if I were a Browns fan I’d rather Chubb. That's all hypothetical though. There is zero guarantee that Chubb will be there at 6. Darnold at 1, Allen at 2, Mayfield at 3, Chubb at 4, and Barkley at 5 means the Browns gave up an elite prospect to move up 13 spots from 35 to 22 and get their 65th pick back. Cleveland doesn't need picks, it needs elite players. We have tons of picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Just now, cle23 said: That's all hypothetical though. There is zero guarantee that Chubb will be there at 6. Darnold at 1, Allen at 2, Mayfield at 3, Chubb at 4, and Barkley at 5 means the Browns gave up an elite prospect to move up 13 spots from 35 to 22 and get their 65th pick back. Cleveland doesn't need picks, it needs elite players. We have tons of picks. That’s the only way that they miss out. If that happens the Browns are sitting at 6 with Rosen out there. They can either get a bunch from the Dolphins or Cardinals or they could take Ward or Nelson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: It is right though. When's the last time someone offered 2 1sts in the current year? It has a higher value than people want to believe. Jets got to 3 with a 1st, 2 2nds, and a future 2nd valued as a 3rd. That premium was 152%. 12, 22, 53, 65, and our 2019 1st is a 151% premium on the #1 pick. Similarly, if the Bills value future picks over current ones (I don't think the Browns do, I think they want more future picks) we could do 12, 22, 53, 56, and a 2019 2nd for a 150% value. You could be right. I think what's happening in this draft is there are like 5 non-QB blue chip players so pick 12 has less real value than that chart would make it seem. You don't have to just convince the Browns to move to a lower pick, you also have to convince them a player like Chubb or Barkley isn't worth it. If I was their GM i wouldn't consider trading down at all honestly. They already have plenty of picks to build the team with and plenty of cap space. They don't need more prospects, they need young blue chip players. But I don't know what Dorsey is thinking. The Jets paid a 151% premium to get to #3 so why wouldn't he think he can get a 175% premium for #1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, HappyDays said: I don't know what Dorsey is thinking. The Jets paid a 151% premium to get to #3 so why wouldn't he think he can get a 175% premium for #1? Again, it's a negotiation. You can ask whatever you want. The other fella doesn't have to pay it. If you ask for 175% premium, perhaps everyone tells you to go fish. Then he misses out on a smaller premium that might have been achievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 31 minutes ago, cle23 said: No team is trading from 12 to 1 without giving up a future first. A GM should get fired immediately if he does that trade. Disagree. You are making a bold statement with a loud tone to prove a point that can’t be proven or quantified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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