maryland-bills-fan Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: The guy is a genius! The Cam thing killed him. I think you would be: 1) surprised at amount of busts at other positions and 2) horrified at how bad the ratio gets after the 1st round. There was a good post in Buffalo Rumblings that gave something like a 80% hit rate for #1, a 50% hit rate for 1st round and 30% hit rate for the 2nd / 3rd rounds. The cost per draft point roughly comes out to #1= 37.,,,,,,1st round= 20,,,,,2nd/3rd= 9. So it is 4X more expensive to use the #1, ,,,,2X as expensive to use the 1st round than using the 2nd/3rd round. That's nice but to use the 2nd/3rd round you have to draft and try to develop 6-7 guys. Some teams draft a QB during the late first day of the draft every year to try this out and spend a year or two on the guy to see what happens. The bad thing is they loose out on getting LB/OL/WR guys who have a much higher success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maryland-bills-fan Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 8 hours ago, White Linen said: Why does totaling them matter? It matters because it shows that there is a risk (about 50% is the generally accepted number) of a QB being a bust in the first round. You have to balance the risk of a bust, against the alternate plan of using that/those picks on positions where the bust rate is much lower. If you are using a lot (5?) high picks to move up in the draft, you are losing the benefit of those lost players and losing spreading the risks over more players. If there are 5 really good franchise QB's coming out this year, it makes more sense to me to use 2 of those 5 high picks to move up and draft the 4th or 5th QB taken. You get a different set of "warts" on your QB and who knows which one will be the best one in a couple of years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putin Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: I just stated this in another thread. Elway is building around Keenum, book it. I’ll believe it when I’ll see the contract extension , build around a QB on a 2 year deal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEraBills Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Putin said: I’ll believe it when I’ll see the contract extension , build around a QB on a 2 year deal ? It's a pipe dream IMO. BUT, the way Denver plays football, that is relying on their stellar defense, it could be that Elway sees a two-year window and wants to stack the defense with the idea that offensively we can just do enough and our defense will win games. We'll see but I think Denver goes with their future signal caller because they have two 2nds, three 3rds in this draft to fill those other positions or to move around the board to grab top talent. Denver could take a QB at 5. Trade both 2nds and get back into the bottom of the 1st for a CB like Mike Hughes, take two 3rds and trade up into the 2nd and get an offensive lineman, or a linebacker what have you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsredneck1 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 14 hours ago, kdiggz said: here is the top guy, Joe Marino's latest mock draft: https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-6-pack-thursday-two-weeks-out-mock-draft/ i said before i can't see elway passing up allen, but i would bet money he would not pass up rosen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 13 hours ago, Virgil said: I like keeping our first and only trading up to 7, but I don’t like taking a center in the first round. There’s too many other offensive lineman in this draft to take one that early. Get your BPA LB, DB, WR, or TE here. Agree. Especially with LVE going a couple of picks after 22. If we were to go OL Hernandez and Price are still there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTbills Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 14 hours ago, kdiggz said: here is the top guy, Joe Marino's latest mock draft: https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-6-pack-thursday-two-weeks-out-mock-draft/ I would be totally OK with this, except for Baker going to NYJ. I want either him or Rosen, but really don't want the one that we don't take to go to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 6 hours ago, Putin said: I’ll believe it when I’ll see the contract extension , build around a QB on a 2 year deal ? Yep, Manning light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Rosen at 7 and keeping 22? We win the off season big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 not sure I would call Leftwich a bust though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTLBills Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 21 hours ago, kdiggz said: here is the top guy, Joe Marino's latest mock draft: https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-6-pack-thursday-two-weeks-out-mock-draft/ Joe is also a huge Bills fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 10 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said: I just stated this in another thread. Elway is building around Keenum, book it. That would be a mistake. But I hope he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 So, from that list, not all of them have posted mock drafts yet... in fact, I could only find about half of the top 20 mock drafters over the last 5 years. Out of that list, here were the top projections to Buffalo. #1 - Baker Mayfield Projected by Brian Phlipot (#6), Ben Standig (#7), Jonathan Cook (#15) and Doug Martz (#18) #2 - Josh Rosen Projected by Forrest Long (#2), Scott Wright (#12) and Rob Staton (#16) #3 - Josh Allen Projected by Mike Loyko (#9) and Dan Kadar (#19) #4 - Lamar Jackson Projected by Ryan McCrystal (#8) FWIW, Loyko, who projected Allen to us is a Patriots writer, Kadar, who projected Allen to us runs the "mocking the draft" website, which seems to compile a bunch of different fan mocks and McCrystal projected Jackson to us before we traded up to #12 with Cincy, so he projected him to us at #21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Original Byrd Man Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Save the picks and take Rudolph at 22 before the Patriots take him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 18, 2018 Author Share Posted April 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 On 4/12/2018 at 10:24 PM, C.Biscuit97 said: The Cam thing killed him. Looks like he isn't going to have a book this year: http://actasports.com/nfl-draft-preview/ Pro Football Weekly biting the dust for a few years (and being a shell of itself in its new incarnation) put him into the self-publishing world. Must have burned some bridges with Arkush as he's way better than Greg Gabriel, the guy PFW is using now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 For the record, I believe Charlie Campbell from WalterFootball was actually the most accurate of the main draft pundits last year, but due to how much Walter annoys people, the two of them aren't included in studies like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 One year wonders come and go. Mayock's five-year average is impressive and he's the go-to guy for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 I don't really put any weight into anyone's mock drafts, as far as what players they have going to what teams. This study highlights why. The most accurate guys last year got 9 out of 32 right, and there were only 4 guys (out of roughly 100) that were even that accurate. Most fell somewhere in the range of hitting on 2 to 6 players to the right team. Mock drafts are fun and all (well, depending on who thy have mocked to th Bills! lol). I just don't put any real faith in what teams they have players going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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