DCOrange Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Pretty interesting tweet, and one that I felt the need to look back on past draft classes for. ESPN archives all of the Scouts Inc. grades dating back to the 2004 draft (Eli, Rivers, Big Ben, Losman). It appears that either in 2014 or 2015, they tweaked their grading formula and became much harsher. For example, 2008 had 13 players rated 95+. 2013 had 9. 2014 had 5, and 2015-2018 has had 5 combined. So in that context, the tweet above is even more impressive. Unfortunately, there's no way to adjust the ratings from past years to match whatever this new rating system is, so I made no attempt to. I did, however, gather up all of the QBs from 2004-2018 that had a grade of 90+ and came up with the following, in order: T1 Ben Roethlisberger T1 Aaron Rodgers T1 Andrew Luck T4 Eli Manning T4 Alex Smith T4 Matt Leinart T4 JaMarcus Russell T4 Matt Ryan T9 Vince Young T9 Brady Quinn T9 Sam Bradford T9 Robert Griffin III T9 Jameis Winston T14 Jay Cutler T14 Matt Stafford T14 Blaine Gabbert T17 Philip Rivers T17 Mark Sanchez T19 Ryan Tannehill T19 Sam Darnold T21 Brian Brohm T21 Cam Newton T21 Marcus Mariota T24 Josh Allen T24 Josh Rosen T26 Blake Bortles T26 Carson Wentz T26 Jared Goff T26 Baker Mayfield T30 Chad Henne T30 Jake Locker T30 Johnny Manziel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Everyone knows that Mason Rudolph is the best QB in the draft... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 So based off of this, you could expect 2 out of the 4 QB's to either be decent to really good and the other 2 to be mediocre to bad. 50% odds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 So these guys all fit somewhere between Sanchez and Henne? Let's trade all our picks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlonce Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 That’s why it’s imperative we draft one of these guys. We will forever be stuck in mediocrity until lightning strikes. Get it done Beanie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Magox said: So based off of this, you could expect 2 out of the 4 QB's to either be decent to really good and the other 2 to be mediocre to bad. 50% odds Or all 4 could be great or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, DCOrange said: Pretty interesting tweet, and one that I felt the need to look back on past draft classes for. ESPN archives all of the Scouts Inc. grades dating back to the 2004 draft (Eli, Rivers, Big Ben, Losman). It appears that either in 2014 or 2015, they tweaked their grading formula and became much harsher. For example, 2008 had 13 players rated 95+. 2013 had 9. 2014 had 5, and 2015-2018 has had 5 combined. So in that context, the tweet above is even more impressive. Unfortunately, there's no way to adjust the ratings from past years to match whatever this new rating system is, so I made no attempt to. I did, however, gather up all of the QBs from 2004-2018 that had a grade of 90+ and came up with the following, in order: T1 Ben Roethlisberger T1 Aaron Rodgers T1 Andrew Luck T4 Eli Manning T4 Alex Smith T4 Matt Leinart T4 JaMarcus Russell T4 Matt Ryan T9 Vince Young T9 Brady Quinn T9 Sam Bradford T9 Robert Griffin III T9 Jameis Winston T14 Jay Cutler T14 Matt Stafford T14 Blaine Gabbert T17 Philip Rivers T17 Mark Sanchez T19 Ryan Tannehill T19 Sam Darnold T21 Brian Brohm T21 Cam Newton T21 Marcus Mariota T24 Josh Allen T24 Josh Rosen T26 Blake Bortles T26 Carson Wentz T26 Jared Goff T26 Baker Mayfield T30 Chad Henne T30 Jake Locker T30 Johnny Manziel Where's Jevan Snead? Quote Todd McShay—of Scouts, Inc. and ESPN fame—graded Snead in the 90s and pegged him as a first rounder. Edited April 5, 2018 by PromoTheRobot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo44 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 In that case, the bills should draft two of them to play it safe. In that way the odds are significantly increased that at least one of them will be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodman19 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said: Everyone knows that Mason Rudolph is the best QB in the draft... Not that I personally think so, but in the end he very well have the best career of the bunch. People get too caught up in pre-draft rankings to consider that the best careers aren't always the ones who go first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I see 10 or 11 out of 33 that are flat our suckfest/ busts. Leinart Russell Young Quinn RG3 Sanchize Brohm Henne Locker Manziel (Cutler, Tannehill)??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Buffalo Boy said: I see 10 or 11 out of 33 that are flat our suckfest/ busts. Leinart Russell Young Quinn RG3 Sanchize Brohm Henne Locker Manziel (Cutler, Tannehill)??? And we cried when the Bills didn't draft them. Same will happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills1212 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said: And we cried when the Bills didn't draft them. Same will happen this year. Brian Brohm lol. Kinda funny 3 are former Bill's now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The different assessments on Allen is baffling. There is a camp that believes he is the next Roethlisberger and there is a camp that believes he is going to be a Kyle Boller type bust. I have seen projections where he could be the first qb off the board or a qb that teams are vying to get him. Can't Gunner, Bandit and Bloke get together and come up with a consensus? Just hash it out and come to an agreement. I need to warn Gunner and Bloke that Bandito is pugnacious and that he will forcefully hold to his position that Allen is worth being the apple of one's eye. If you continue to disagree you will be in a bloody battle until you relent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Yeah I don’t know- Biff from Tonawanda insists that Josh Allen is definitely gonna suck. Surely he knows more than Scouts Inc. (Biff being a metaphor for half the people on this website). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 5, 2018 Author Share Posted April 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said: Where's Jevan Snead? Based on that article, it sounds like he had Snead as a 90 going in the preseason but by the time he actually declared for the draft, he was no longer in the top 100 of his draft class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said: And we cried when the Bills didn't draft them. Same will happen this year. Some yes, some no, point taken. We could have had Watson or Maholmes last year with no trade. Kinda feeling like we screwed the pooch on those non picks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Woodman19 said: Not that I personally think so, but in the end he very well have the best career of the bunch. People get too caught up in pre-draft rankings to consider that the best careers aren't always the ones who go first. It’s possible, just not likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodman19 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said: It’s possible, just not likely.. Not too unlikely, anyone who is going to get taken in the first couple rounds obviously has skill and say he ends up getting taken by the Patriots or Steelers and has a chance to learn for a year or two while the Darnolds, Rosens etc get drafted by teams like the Browns and Jets then anything can happen. Just look at any draft and see how the best players from them aren't always taken in the top 5. Talent is littered throughout because players develop differently in different environments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikey152 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, JohnC said: The different assessments on Allen is baffling. There is a camp that believes he is the next Roethlisberger and there is a camp that believes he is going to be a Kyle Boller type bust. I have seen projections where he could be the first qb off the board or a qb that teams are vying to get him. Can't Gunner, Bandit and Bloke get together and come up with a consensus? Just hash it out and come to an agreement. I need to warn Gunner and Bloke that Bandito is pugnacious and that he will forcefully hold to his position that Allen is worth being the apple of one's eye. If you continue to disagree you will be in a bloody battle until you relent. Kyle Boller isn't nearly the bust people make him out to be, especially as the 19th pick...JaMarcuss Russell or Ryan Leaf are more synonymous with bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodman19 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Kyle Boller isn't nearly the bust people make him out to be, especially as the 19th pick...JaMarcuss Russell or Ryan Leaf are more synonymous with bust Its kinda true that almost every QB taken in the first couple of rounds who isnt a Hall of Fame QB is always a "bust" in peoples mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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