D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 40 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: Here is a "drill" they need to invent if they haven't done so already. Take a QB candidate at the combine and make him do 3 mental activities at once. Respond verbally to audible commands, while arranging words in alphabetical order, and changing which chair he is seated in when told to do so. Just process information all at the same time. See who can do it. The best fighter pilots and race car drivers have a tremendous ability to multi-task in this manner. Seems to me the best NFL QBs in 2018 need to be able to do this too. Has anyone in the football community even thought of this sort of test? They seem to busy measuring a guy's standing broad jump. No doubt the drills at the combine are not the best in a position specific sense. I like your idea, makes sense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Completion percentage is not even a great metric for accuracy even in the NFL. Tyrod usually has good completion percentage because he only makes safe throws and dump offs, but nobody would claim he is an accurate QB. He throws over guys heads all the time, and puts the ball in a spot that requires WR's to often stop and reach back or make difficult catches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, MJS said: Completion percentage is not even a great metric for accuracy even in the NFL. Tyrod usually has good completion percentage because he only makes safe throws and dump offs, but nobody would claim he is an accurate QB. He throws over guys heads all the time, and puts the ball in a spot that requires WR's to often stop and reach back or make difficult catches. In general it is good indicator in NFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, horned dogs said: Some other 26-27-60 grades (comp% trend) Tyrod 15-38-57 (57-56-59.7) close his senior year Teddy B 20-37-68 (64-68-71) great % in L'ville O, low Wonderlic like TT Cousins 33-39-64 (60-66-63) wonder if this regression hurt him in draft A.Smith 40-23-66 interesting case, very smart, only 2 yr starter for Urban Well that explains a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) 21 minutes ago, MJS said: Completion percentage is not even a great metric for accuracy even in the NFL. Tyrod usually has good completion percentage because he only makes safe throws and dump offs, but nobody would claim he is an accurate QB. He throws over guys heads all the time, and puts the ball in a spot that requires WR's to often stop and reach back or make difficult catches. Yards per attempt is a good number to look at that will be low if a QB has a high comp% but is a dump-off QB. Low comp% will also have a low YPA because they're completing fewer passes. Tyrods 6.8 or whatever is in the bottom 3rd in the NFL, and that's probably where he ranks as a starter. Tyrod will also get a minus on Net yards per attempt because of sacks. But the "adjusted YPA/adjusted NYPA" will improve because it factors in that he doesn't throw picks. Edited January 18, 2018 by dneveu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I wonder (ha!) how well the Wonderlic really predicts the kind of learning the QBs in the NFL need to do. Footwork and mechanics are straightforward and can be evaluated from film, sure. But doesn't the fact that the QB aren't facing NFL defenses make it all the more important that they should have a reasonable completion percentage? How do you evaluate a guy's decision making skills if he's not able to throw completions? I mean, come on, almost all these receivers can catch and as you say, against lower-quality defenses at least one of them can get open 2/3 of the plays - the reason for the phrase "college open" The missing pieces regarding the completion percentages are: 1. Where are they completing the passes? 2. How often are their WRs catching the passes? 3. Is the completion a well-thrown ball or just a good catch? I can't answer the 3rd with the available data (though Ben Solak from NDT Scouting is working on that), but the other two can be factored in. For example, take Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Drew Lock. Raw Completion %: Darnold: 63.1% Lock: 57.8% Lamar: 59.1% So based on this, we'd say Darnold was pretty significantly more accurate than the other two. But if we take drops into account and split it out based on the distance of the throw, you get the attached table, which shows that both Lock and Lamar had a higher adjusted completion percentage overall. In the short+intermediate range, they're all within 1% of each other, but on deep balls, Lamar is 2% better than Darnold and Lock is nearly 9% better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 34 minutes ago, prissythecat said: In general it is good indicator in NFL Thanks for your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Marino another sub 60% completion passer. Marino, Farve, Cutler, Stafford the thing they all have in common is arm talent. They make more passes Qbs without that kind of arm would make. Watched an interview with Farve and Gruden. He made a pass like Tua from Alamaba to win his first home game for the packers. Ty detmer asked him (Farve) in a meeting Monday following the game why would you try or even attempt that pass? His respond because I can. In college they dont have the talent to haul in those unique passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, MJS said: Thanks for your opinion? You didnt prove that it wasnt a good stat. You just stated it isnt a good stat because Tyrod "throws balls over peoples heads all the time." Instead of offering up a sample of QBs that have high completion percentages in NFL but can't hit the broad side of a barn, you gave pure anecdotal evidence... If I take a look at QBs from 2017 with completion percentages under 60% and over 200 attempts, I see luminaries such as Tom Savage, Jacoby Brisset, Trevor Simian, CJ Beathard. Tells me that its a decent starting point for separating wheat from chaff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Best thread of the week right here, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 2 hours ago, DCOrange said: The missing pieces regarding the completion percentages are: 1. Where are they completing the passes? 2. How often are their WRs catching the passes? 3. Is the completion a well-thrown ball or just a good catch? I can't answer the 3rd with the available data (though Ben Solak from NDT Scouting is working on that), but the other two can be factored in. For example, take Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Drew Lock. Raw Completion %: Darnold: 63.1% Lock: 57.8% Lamar: 59.1% So based on this, we'd say Darnold was pretty significantly more accurate than the other two. But if we take drops into account and split it out based on the distance of the throw, you get the attached table, which shows that both Lock and Lamar had a higher adjusted completion percentage overall. In the short+intermediate range, they're all within 1% of each other, but on deep balls, Lamar is 2% better than Darnold and Lock is nearly 9% better. Interesting data. How is "adjusted completion %, all attempts" calculated? Shouldn't that be the same as their raw completion data, or what does it mean that it's so much higher for "all attempts" than "raw completion %"? 3 hours ago, MJS said: Completion percentage is not even a great metric for accuracy even in the NFL. Tyrod usually has good completion percentage because he only makes safe throws and dump offs, but nobody would claim he is an accurate QB. He throws over guys heads all the time, and puts the ball in a spot that requires WR's to often stop and reach back or make difficult catches. Please excuse stating the obvious, but if Tyrod throws over guys heads all the time or in places that require difficult catches our WR can't make, then that will be reflected in his completion percentages making it lower. All QB stats reflect WR who make those circus catches. Witness Min. game. It's my observation that our WR corps makes fewer of those "high degree of difficulty" haul-ins than most, but I have no data to back that, just an eyeball perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Interesting data. How is "adjusted completion %, all attempts" calculated? Shouldn't that be the same as their raw completion data, or what does it mean that it's so much higher for "all attempts" than "raw completion %"? Please excuse stating the obvious, but if Tyrod throws over guys heads all the time or in places that require difficult catches our WR can't make, then that will be reflected in his completion percentages making it lower. All QB stats reflect WR who make those circus catches. Witness Min. game. It's my observation that our WR corps makes fewer of those "high degree of difficulty" haul-ins than most, but I have no data to back that, just an eyeball perception. I agree with your last sentiment here. I like our wr core. I think they are solid but not spectacular. What they do lack, as you said, is the ability to make those "high degree of difficulty" catches, and instead they make up for it with being solid and reliable route runners with solid hands on well thrown balls. Im not sure what we'd need for a QB to fit with this core, but I think trying to add a playmaking "circus" receiver would be a good idea to flesh out the corps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Interesting data. How is "adjusted completion %, all attempts" calculated? Shouldn't that be the same as their raw completion data, or what does it mean that it's so much higher for "all attempts" than "raw completion %"? Please excuse stating the obvious, but if Tyrod throws over guys heads all the time or in places that require difficult catches our WR can't make, then that will be reflected in his completion percentages making it lower. All QB stats reflect WR who make those circus catches. Witness Min. game. It's my observation that our WR corps makes fewer of those "high degree of difficulty" haul-ins than most, but I have no data to back that, just an eyeball perception. Adjusted means that it’s counting dropped passes as completions and removing spikes, throwaways, and balls batted at the line from the equation entirely. ”All” just means it’s looking at all of their attempts after making those adjustments versus qualifiers like “Deep” (20+ yards down the field) and stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Completion percentage is important, but you also have to break them down fundamentally. All of the pre-draft reports said EJ was extremely flawed that I read. You have to watch their footwork, throwing motion, how they process what they see on the field, how they move in the pocket, do they have the arm strength, do they go through their progressions quickly, if they are a leader, and can they do it with the game on the line. There are a combination of things that truly matter. RARELY does a college QB who is inaccurate magically become better in the NFL. Only if they possess many of the previous listed qualities and were truly held down by the team around them. It has happened, but it is truly rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 8 hours ago, Virgil said: Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup Texas Tech has 2 guys in the NFL with one about to be. Mahomes was a 1st rounder last year, Davis Webb is loved by the Giants and was picked in the 3rd round, and Baker Mayfield is going to be a 1st round pick this year. They all started at Tech and played the same offense throughout their college careers, however Mayfield & Webb split due to behind the scenes issues & anger over not being the starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: Adjusted means that it’s counting dropped passes as completions and removing spikes, throwaways, and balls batted at the line from the equation entirely. ”All” just means it’s looking at all of their attempts after making those adjustments versus qualifiers like “Deep” (20+ yards down the field) and stuff like that. Interesting, thanks for the explanation. Do you know if analogous data is available for NFL QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Interesting, thanks for the explanation. Do you know if analogous data is available for NFL QB? I assume ProFootballFocus has it for NFL QBs but I’m guessing it’s hidden behind their Deluxe Subscriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Necessary but not sufficient, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 9 hours ago, Virgil said: Those who run a spread, air raid offenses will have higher percentages as they typically throw to a spot, not guys in motion. It’s why Texas Tech QB’s threw for godly numbers but can’t be an NFL backup Cue the Case Keenum comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, the skycap said: Cue the Case Keenum comments Except he was hot garbage prior to this year's Cinderella story. My money is on him returning to the dumpster after this year, unless he stays in Minnesota with a top tier defense and running game. Even then I'll bet he turns into "average at best". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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