Again the need for 300 yards Passing/game

[Tatonka68]

25 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Still complaining about a completion.  Did you too complain about the pass to Clay that maybe if the DB anticipated the throw quicker would have intercepted.

 

Yes the reason to cut Tyrod right then and there.

56 yards passing against the Saints says it all, Taylor sucks.

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

56 yards passing against the Saints says it all, Taylor sucks.

Lol those are numbers I used to put up in high school...and I sucked. 

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That's going to take a lot.....and I mean a lot of digging to get that data.

Like I said earlier, there doesn't have to be a specific number, just the ability to move the ball in the air with more effectiveness.  A single number of 300 doesn't mean much to me.

When Trent Edwards was playing well at QB for us before the concussion, he never threw for 300 yards but we were moving the ball pretty well in the air.  We started out 4-0 and he started checking down everything after the concussion, our offense sucked going forward.

Yeah, I’m not sure that it is realistic to get it all and I wouldn’t even know what the data points were. That’s what the analytics department is for. I guess my point is we focus on pass yards with nothing to support that it matters. We do it because it’s the lowest common denominator. Let’s identify what correlates with wins and losses and figure out how to do more of it. 

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Well this year at least, 5/6 of our wins come when the other team scores 17 or less points. League median this year looks to be around 23...17 ppg is almost 30th. 

That’s interesting to me. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Forget trying to tell us that 300 yard games mean nothing when it comes to wins and losses as that is often wrong, especially when both QB's throw for 300 and teams trying to come back.

 

I am posting as to having a QB & Offense that at the start of the game you game plan to stop them throwing for 300 yards.

 

That is the problem with the Bills.  No defensive coordinator thinks the Bills want to throw for 200, much less then 300 and basically beg them to try (and they don't).

 

Name me a team in the league that can't throw for 300......  Browns (maybe), Jags (Bortles has), Baltimore, Denver & Chicago (Trubinsky)......  That's it......

 

I've been waiting for a game that the Bills try to establish the pass (first 6 weeks every NE opponent did).

 

And when they do & if Tyrod fails miserably, then you can say "I told you so".

 

Not counting this year, his first year and his injured year, Brady has thrown for over 4000 yards in 8 of the other 15 seasons.  He's averaged 300 or more yards per game in only 4 seasons

[billsredneck1]

not to disrupt the arguments but, i'd like to throw a few thoughts in here.

last year against miami tt went 26/39 329 3td 0 int. i may not be exact...if not very close. he can do it...and he can do it with kb., thompson, holmes, jones and tate.

you can take one thing to the bank. on each and EVERY play they will send someone from the right side and the middle. every single time.

 

we have to make them pay by getting the ball out quick and taking long shots. we can't depend on clay, oleary and matthews in the middle or slot for short gains.

we need that for sure to move the chains, but the way to beat this team and score points is to go deep and often.

 

on defense we need to stack the box and send the heat on every single snap. it seems like every coach we've had depends on the front 4 and are afraid to blitz brady.

i say screw that. we can play man with poyer and hyde to protect so we can send someone every time. i'm hoping milano up the middle can put brady on his back all day long.

 

they gotta hit him hard. we have the capability to beat these guys. this game is going to tell us every thing we need to know about the coaching staff and tyrod.

[YesPlayoffs]

Since he arrived, we are 2-7 in games where Tyrod started and threw for over 250. 0-1 in games he threw for over 300.

 

At the same time, we are 17-9 in games where he doesn't throw an interception.

 

Make of that what you will.

[LABILLBACKER]

TT will never be a great pocket qb but if you at least rolled him out or put him in shotgun more he'd give you more offense.  Maybe not 300 but 250.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, NoPlayoffs said:

Since he arrived, we are 2-7 in games where Tyrod started and threw for over 250. 0-1 in games he threw for over 300.

 

At the same time, we are 17-9 in games where he doesn't throw an interception.

 

Make of that what you will.

Neither his best and worst has won many games.   

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, NoPlayoffs said:

Since he arrived, we are 2-7 in games where Tyrod started and threw for over 250. 0-1 in games he threw for over 300.

 

At the same time, we are 17-9 in games where he doesn't throw an interception.

 

Make of that what you will.

I think you have to look at each QB and their respective situations individually if you want to get anything from these kinds of numbers. For a guy like Taylor, throwing for a bunch of yards is unusual, which may often mean the Bills are playing from behind (ie losing) because that's not what the offense is designed to do week in week out. That's going to skew things in a ball-control offense. Roethlisberger, Brady, Ryan and guys whose offenses feature a lot of attempts...they're going to have a different set of W/L stats when you look at it from a YPG standpoint because that's how their teams move the ball on offense and score.

 

But if the overarching question is how to qualify a 'good' QB, I think it's pretty safe to say that the best ones are featured heavily in their team's offensive usage, and the worse the QB is the less he will be tasked with, proportionally.

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you have to look at each QB and their respective situations individually if you want to get anything from these kinds of numbers. For a guy like Taylor, throwing for a bunch of yards is unusual, which may often mean the Bills are playing from behind (ie losing) because that's not what the offense is designed to do week in week out. That's going to skew things in a ball-control offense. Roethlisberger, Brady, Ryan and guys whose offenses feature a lot of attempts...they're going to have a different set of W/L stats when you look at it from a YPG standpoint because that's how their teams move the ball on offense and score.

 

But if the overarching question is how to qualify a 'good' QB, I think it's pretty safe to say that the best ones are featured heavily in their team's offensive usage, and the worse the QB is the less he will be tasked with, proportionally.

I don't disagree, but boy would it be nice and I'm convinced help the team if opposing teams respected the Bills throwing the ball and scoring points.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I don't disagree, but boy would it be nice and I'm convinced help the team if opposing teams respected the Bills throwing the ball and scoring points.  

I think there's no doubt about that, and I look to the Rams, Vikings, and Eagles success this season as proof that building a respectable passing attack facilitates a more effective offense in general.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

300 yard passing teams have a win percentage of .575 this year (42-31 assuming my math is right). Tyrod Taylor has a win percentage .600 this year. I don’t see the correlation? If anything it dispels that notion in that winning teams (like the Pats and Eagles) get great QB play.  Just saying... 

 

 

Depends on how you work with the numbers. 

 

From what I am reading/understanding, a teams win percentage for those who throw for over 300 yards in a game is.575. So they win more than they lose obviously. Or win about 57.5% of the time

 

TT is special, and he wins more than he loses when he throws less than 300 yards. He wins 60% of the time when throwing for less than 300 yards. Remember that he is winning games where teams throw for 300 yards. This is also factored into the league average. We can leave it at that, but statistically we have opened up a whole can of worms in terms of other data that needs to be provided, because something else needs to account for this in order for the numbers to tell the full story. Data needs to be able to speak for the whole story or it is closer to anecdotal than statistics. 

 

 

OR....

 

The Buffalo Bills are .500 when they throw less than 300 yards per game this season. That number is much closer to the mean of .425 league wide when throwing for less than 300. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

Depends on how you work with the numbers. 

 

From what I am reading/understanding, a teams win percentage for those who throw for over 300 yards in a game is.575. So they win more than they lose obviously. Or win about 57.5% of the time

 

TT is special, and he wins more than he loses when he throws less than 300 yards. He wins 60% of the time when throwing for less than 300 yards. Remember that he is winning games where teams throw for 300 yards. This is also factored into the league average. We can leave it at that, but statistically we have opened up a whole can of worms in terms of other data that needs to be provided, because something else needs to account for this in order for the numbers to tell the full story. Data needs to be able to speak for the whole story or it is closer to anecdotal than statistics. 

 

 

OR....

 

The Buffalo Bills are .500 when they throw less than 300 yards per game this season. That number is much closer to the mean of .425 league wide when throwing for less than 300. 

Aren't the Bills .545 when they throw less than 300 yards this season?

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Aren't the Bills .545 when they throw less than 300 yards this season?

 

 

Ugh...my fault. I removed the TT game like Kirby did accidently. Correct. 

[The Now Moment]

I don't think they are looking for a pass first offense but more of a balanced offense.  They want the run game to be able to slow the game down at times.  We absolutely need a guy that can sling it though.  I'm tired of QBs that don't win you the game.  If the defense doesn't play well...we don't win.  Get a guy and fill in the holes around him this offseason and finally give a QB the best chance we can to succeed for once.  Surround that guy with everything you can.  We have the luxury of lots of cap space and draft picks this offseason to attempt to fill several holes on this team.

[CEN-CAL17]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Need to be able to Pass and Run with some degree of success, and we've struggled with each this year.

Here's a list of QBs averaging less than 220 passing yards per game this year:
Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Andy Dalton

Dak Prescott

Blake Bortles

Tyrod Taylor

Brett Hundley

Tom Savage

Ryan Fitzpatrick

DeShone Kizer

Jay Cutler

Joe Flacco

Mitch Trubisky

----

Matt Moore

Mike Glennon

Brian Hoyer

Drew Stanton

Show me a list of the top 10 and I’ll show you Super Bowl contenders....

 

oh oh not to mention teams that consistently make the playoffs....

[BuffaloHokie13]

29 minutes ago, 1ZAYDAY1 said:

Show me a list of the top 10 and I’ll show you Super Bowl contenders....

 

oh oh not to mention teams that consistently make the playoffs....

In 2016 5 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. In 2015 3 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. Passing yards are not the stat you're looking for.

 

How about this stat:

From 2015-2016 a total of 12 teams held opponents under 24 points 19 times or more. All 12 made the playoffs 1 of the 2 years and those 12 teams accounted for 18 of the 24 playoff teams in the 2 year span.

Edited November 28, 2017 by BuffaloHokie13

[Jobot]

Fantasy Football is not real football

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

In 2016 5 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. In 2015 3 of the top 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs. Passing yards are not the stat you're looking for.

 

How about this stat:

From 2015-2016 a total of 12 teams held opponents under 24 points 19 times or more. All 12 made the playoffs 1 of the 2 years and those 12 teams accounted for 18 of the 24 playoff teams in the 2 year span.

Conversely, in 2016 only 3 of the bottom 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs, and several of them were among the worst teams in the league. It's certainly not the best predictor of success but I think year-to-year you'd much rather be in the top than the bottom.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Conversely, in 2016 only 3 of the bottom 10 passing yard teams made the playoffs, and several of them were among the worst teams in the league. It's certainly not the best predictor of success but I think year-to-year you'd much rather be in the top than the bottom.

So in 2016 as many teams in the bottom 10 made it as 2015's top 10? The stat simply isn't correlated with playoffs. There are much better stats to track than that. Also, 1 stat rarely ever tells the story by itself.