Domdab99 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 (edited) Do you know what "prediction" means? I mean, gambling lines can be argued as one of the most reputable predictors ever created. Then you know absolutely nothing about sports wagering Edited October 4, 2017 by Domdab99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Then you absolutely nothing about sports wagering Gambling is for sinners. I will pray for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Gambling is for sinners. I will pray for you. I'll buy a lottery ticket if you'll throw me in with the prayer crowd. I could use the help. And if I win $500 million, I'll give you the most sincere "thank you!" I might also throw in a beer at a tail gate.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 The Bills' defense seems to be a bad matchup for the Bengals. They can't run the ball. They're going to be really one-dimensional and the Bills secondary defends the screens well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulus Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 (edited) Then you know absolutely nothing about sports wagering I don't think you know what the word "prediction" means. We'll start with that and then get up to more complex things like "sports wagering." Edited October 4, 2017 by Paulus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 (edited) I agree this is a big game. Could easily fall into one of those trap type games. Still not that scared of them. Maybe their defense but not their offense. That's how I felt seeing the Falcons coming back down the field. I just said "here we go again. Same old story I've seen a million times." did not expect that stop For the love of God can people stop talking about trap games? They DON'T EXIST!! It was conclusively proven in a comprehensive 25 year study done by Football Outsiders where they found teams win and lose "trap games" against inferior opponents at the same rate they win and lose any other game against similar opponents. In fact, they actually won slightly more "trap games" but not a statistically significant amount. "Trap Games" are officially dead. It sounds nice to say when you are justifying the 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to a bad team, but in the end its the same 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to ANY bad team they play. It has ZERO to do with it being a "trap game" or not. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/pfp-2007-trap-games Table 1: Winning Teams in Trap Games 1983-2006 All Traps Home Traps Road Traps Win Pct. .820 .889 .747 W-L 389-85 217-27 172-58 Table 2: Winning Teams Non-Trap Games against Sub-.500 Teams, 1983-2006 All Games Home Games Road Games Win Pct. .815 .880 .751 W-L 1,601-539-3 861-115-2 740-244-1 Edited October 4, 2017 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 The win would be impressive, solely because this is a game this team normally loses the past 17 years. When this team starts to win games they're supposed to regularly, we'll know things are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Beating the 1-3 Bengals is more impressive than beating a team that went to the SB last year? Yeah, not buying that. bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 I don't think you know what the word "prediction" means. We'll start with that and then get up to more complex things like "sports wagering." You're right, as an English Professor and long-time sharp living in Vegas, I know very little about these things. Gambling is for sinners. I will pray for you. lol please don't. I'm an atheist and it would be wasted on me. For the love of God can people stop talking about trap games? They DON'T EXIST!! It was conclusively proven in a comprehensive 25 year study done by Football Outsiders where they found teams win and lose "trap games" against inferior opponents at the same rate they win and lose any other game against similar opponents. In fact, they actually won slightly more "trap games" but not a statistically significant amount. "Trap Games" are officially dead. It sounds nice to say when you are justifying the 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to a bad team, but in the end its the same 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to ANY bad team they play. It has ZERO to do with it being a "trap game" or not. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/pfp-2007-trap-games Table 1: Winning Teams in Trap Games 1983-2006 All Traps Home Traps Road Traps Win Pct. .820 .889 .747 W-L 389-85 217-27 172-58 Table 2: Winning Teams Non-Trap Games against Sub-.500 Teams, 1983-2006 All Games Home Games Road Games Win Pct. .815 .880 .751 W-L 1,601-539-3 861-115-2 740-244-1 Thank you! Geeze, when I hear someone mention "trap game," I want to ask them their picks for the week and then bet the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 This thread is an embarassment as we sit here at 3-1. Come on people, chill. I have two other thoughts. 1) Milano at LB Sunday scares me silly. 2) If you can, try Special K's Limited Edition Pumpkin Spice Crunch cereal. Its quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinceThe70s Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Your being completely ridiculous if you think im trolling or the OP is trolling. Winning these types of games are what separate playoff teams from non playoff teams. Do you think these last two wins were easy? It has to have taken something out of them in the short term and Cincy is probably one of the better 1-3 teams Ive seen recently. Hope the Bills dont have your attitude. Theyll lose by 20 if they do. Esplain it to me Lucy. Winning "these types of games" makes us less likely to win "other types of games"? Do you think the next two wins will be easy? Maybe we can decide which weeks to take a breather based on the opponent or your expert opinion. BTW, please let me know the "better 1-3 teams I've seen recently" that the Bills will be facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KollegeStudnet Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 If the Bills go 3-0 in AFC games that would maybe a first in almost two decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 What will it take to get you guys to realize a betting line is not a prediction of who will win? Then you know absolutely nothing about sports wagering please do explain Mr. Sharp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulus Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 You're right, as an English Professor and long-time sharp living in Vegas, I know very little about these things. Judging by your usage of the word, you don't. Tell me, what is a "prediction" to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Just win. That is all I want. Bengals, or any team, should be overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Betting lines are set by bookmakers to try and get the same number of bettors wagering on both teams. This way, they make the most money and their risk is negligible . That's why lines move. More bettors are wagering on one team than the other, so the line is moved to correct for that - drawing bettors to the other side until they have around the same number of bettors on both sides again. Bookmakers are not trying to predict the outcome of the game. they are trying to make money. Whether or not you want to use the game as a "predictor" of the outcome, that's up to you. Just know, that the Bengals being 3 point favorites over the Bills is not a prediction. It's just that the sportsbooks realize they will get the most action on this line - on both sides. But hey, keep using the word "prediction" if you want, no skin off my nose. But just realize that the Bengals being 3 point favorites does not necessarily mean the books think the Bengals are the better team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 (edited) Betting lines are set by bookmakers to try and get the same number of bettors wagering on both teams. This way, they make the most money and their risk is negligible . That's why lines move. More bettors are wagering on one team than the other, so the line is moved to correct for that - drawing bettors to the other side until they have around the same number of bettors on both sides again. Bookmakers are not trying to predict the outcome of the game. they are trying to make money. Whether or not you want to use the game as a "predictor" of the outcome, that's up to you. Just know, that the Bengals being 3 point favorites over the Bills is not a prediction. It's just that the sportsbooks realize they will get the most action on this line - on both sides. But hey, keep using the word "prediction" if you want, no skin off my nose. But just realize that the Bengals being 3 point favorites does not necessarily mean the books think the Bengals are the better team. That's all I needed to know Mr. Sharp! Thanks for playing. BYW Mr. Sharp, take a gander at some money flow charts..books take stands all the time against the public, that notion of 50% -50% is pure 1980's bull chit. But you know that as you are a sharp https://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart Edited October 4, 2017 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 okie doke, Scooter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 With a bye coming up, this teams mentality, I think it's all business, and definitely not more impressive than going into ATL.They have a good OL We have such a huge advantage at the L.O.S , I see that being the key to a 9-13 point victory, I see us making them 1 dimensional early and start teeing off on Dalton, who has a habit of letting mistakes get the best of him. Make no mistake though, besides Cle, it isn't easy winning on the road so it will still be impressive to get the W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 okie doke, Scooter lol OKay , your right. Vegas books had a bad last year cause they got 50-50 action and rents and advertising just too high. Had nothing to do with favorites covering at historic rates.They didn't get murdered in the SuperBowl when the favorite covered and the over hit, cause they adjust the line to get to 50-50. Please just do a little basic google research on the bookmaking business, where they make stands, key numbers, use of power number and DVOA, adjusting vig vs lines etc Ar the very least, explain how the Bills line has not budged yet, but 70% of the money bet so far is on the Bills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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