Bills "can't wait to unleash Tyrod Taylor"

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

Interesting approach - how do you define "T" (touches I believe)?

 

As far as evaluating a QB as a player in today's NFL where a QB's ability to run can change the game, it seems as reasonable as any approach.

I don't entirely understand 3rd down efficiency as a QB stat as it's obviously impacted by the play calling from the sidelines.

 

And yet, KC has gone to the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 years with Alex Smith calling signals. Riddle me that.

 

Yep.

All touches, so pass attempts, rush attempts, and sacks. YPT is Pass Yards + Rush Yards - Sack Yards / Pass Attempts + Rush Attempts + Sacks.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

For sure. It would be great if either Tyrod steps up or Peterman in practice shows real growth where we can use our 6 picks in the first 3 rounds on several other needs.

 

Even if Tyrod steps up or Peterman gets the chance to play and shows promise, I believe the Bills should use a high pick on QB next year. The position is so important that all efforts should be bent on acquiring a good one, and even a promising year from a QB is no guarantee of continued success.

[Royale with Cheese]

I strongly believe that they will, and it'll be interesting what happens to Taylor if they do. He's a legit mid-tier NFL starter, and there will be demand.

Yeah, I can't believe I'm defending it either, because like you I was against in the debates about it here years ago for the same reasons. I'm just saying that drops are a real thing and should be measured when assessing a qb.

 

I never said drops weren't a real thing. I just used your criteria of "indicator of QB performance". There are other things that are indicators too but it seems like you only want to use the positives. Misreads, bad placed balls, holding the ball too long are also indicators too....

[bobobonators]

No, you're conflating because you're an admitted TT guy.

 

Tyrod played good enough this week that if he had that game every week from here on, we would still look to move on.

 

Remember when you thought TT was a no-brainer over Alex Smith? And Alex Smith outdueled Brady against the NE defense, and TT quietly managed a game where Shady had like half of our total yards.

 

A big difference, IMO.

So you're telling me that if Clay catches that ball in the end zone we would move on from almost 300 all purpose yards and 3td and 0int. You wouldnt take that on a weekly basis? Ok.

 

The fascinating thing to me is that I get criticizing the QB when he plays poorly. But when said QB is still criticized when he plays well, that is a head scratcher. Tyrod shouldnt even be a negative topic of conversation this week in any way. There will be several weeks this season when it will be justified. Or is it that people simply cant wait until he has a bad game?

[section122]

This is the Twilight Zone. The Bills won, the QB played a good game and people are STILL complaining!! Can't we just take it for what it is?!? I've never seen a fan base with so much disdain for their own team. It hasn't been easy to be a Bills fan for a while but there is no reason to not be happy when good things happen.

 

I put it at the end of a thread I just started but this phrase perfectly describes it: Don't let perfect be the enemy of very good. I can't imagine how bad this place will be Monday after a loss...

[bobobonators]

 

I put it at the end of a thread I just started but this phrase perfectly describes it: Don't let perfect be the enemy of very good. I can't imagine how bad this place will be Monday after a loss...

Its brutal. The irony is that so many people on here hate Jerry Sullivan but in reailty this board is full of Jerry Sullivans.

[BringBackOrton]

So you're telling me that if Clay catches that ball in the end zone we would move on from almost 300 all purpose yards and 3td and 0int. You wouldnt take that on a weekly basis? Ok.

 

The fascinating thing to me is that I get criticizing the QB when he plays poorly. But when said QB is still criticized when he plays well, that is a head scratcher. Tyrod shouldnt even be a negative topic of conversation this week in any way. There will be several weeks this season when it will be justified. Or is it that people simply cant wait until he has a bad game?

He didn't play well enough that I wouldn't move on.

 

He's the same QB no matter how you slice it.

[bobobonators]

He didn't play well enough that I wouldn't move on.

 

He's the same QB no matter how you slice it.

Ok.

[Royale with Cheese]

 

Man, this is the f***ing Twilight Zone. I'm about to defend total QBR, and I hate total QBR! Some of you who've been here a while might recall extended arguments I had against it on this board a few years back.

 

I don't think total QBR is "opinion based", at least not by the common definition of "opinion" where the same word is used to describe Joe Blow from Kokomo's view on global warming and that of a scientific expert.

Total QBR does have some components that have a subjective element - such as dropped passes, and how much pressure a QB was under. They involve "opinion", but in a limited sense, from trained observers using specific criteria.

Then it gets fed into a proprietary algorithm involving 10000 lines of code. The computer doesn't have an opinion, but its value is only as good as the value of the parameters used to code.

 

My beefs with total QBR are twofold:

1) ESPN will not reveal the formulas and procedures used to calculate total QBR. This puts it in a different category than all the non-official (but real) statistics calculated by PFF, which likewise contain some subjective elements but where they will explain exactly what goes into their formula. Anything where the proponents refuse to explain exactly what they are doing has elements of hocus-pocus to me

2) It doesn't pass the "eyeball test" eg the famous Wk 5 2011 contest where Tim Tebow was rated higher than Aaron Rodgers. Seriously, man? They've revised it since then but one can still look at it week by week and say "hmmm, No."

 

This is where I'm getting my opinion from. Eric Wood echoed these same things on WGR.

 

The Dangers In The PFF Method

Last August, Bill Belichick talked about the dangers of watching film and making conclusions based on it.

It might even look to us like somebody made a mistake but then we look at it more closely maybe somebody besides him made a mistake and he was trying to compensate. I think we need a little closer analysis a lot of times. Sometimes the play calls or what was called on the line of scrimmage might be something that we’re not aware of. That could happen in any game. You think a player did something that he shouldn’t have done but maybe he got a call, a line call or a call from a linebacker or he thought the quarterback said something so he did what he thought was the right thing or maybe it was the right thing but that call shouldn’t have been made or should have been on the other side. But yeah, I think we need to be careful about what we’re evaluating.

So sometimes even the team itself doesn’t know exactly where things broke down and who did what wrong. Belichick then went on to talk about watching opposing team’s game films and the impossibilities of knowing what happened:

But believe me, I’ve watched plenty of preseason games this time of year and you’re looking at all the other teams in the league and you try to evaluate players and you’re watching the teams that we’re going to play early in the season and there are plenty of plays where I have no idea what went wrong. Something’s wrong but I don’t…these two guys made a mistake but I don’t know which guy it was or if it was both of them. You just don’t know that. I don’t know how you can know that unless you’re really part of the team and know exactly what was supposed to happen on that play.

I know there are a lot of experts out there that have it all figured out but I definitely don’t.

This time of year, sometimes it’s hard to figure that out, exactly what they’re trying to do. When somebody makes a mistake, whose mistake is it?

Bill Belichick doesn’t have it figured out. But Pro Football Focus does? They can provide a grade on every play?

Another problem is that the NFL just recently added the coaches film to Game Rewind, so before that, the PFF graders could not even see the entire field. I don’t know if they currently even utilize the overhead game film, or just rely on the standard HD game telecasts. If it is the latter, they cannot see every player on the field for every play…so how can they grade what they can’t see? (And actually, the All-22 film doesn’t come out until mid-week, which is after PFF has posted their initial grades- so they’re not using it, at least in their first gradings.)

There HAS to be a subjective element in the grading process. They have to be making conclusions based on conjecture and assumption or what they “think” the player was attempting to do or was assigned to do on any given play.

[dave mcbride]

 

I never said drops weren't a real thing. I just used your criteria of "indicator of QB performance". There are other things that are indicators too but it seems like you only want to use the positives. Misreads, bad placed balls, holding the ball too long are also indicators too....

Not true at all. For years, I've been the one banging the drum loudest on this site with regard to the importance of sacks taken by and sack rates for qbs. To be fair, sack yardage lost is factored into team QB ratings (albeit not individual player ratings).

Edited September 11, 2017 by dave mcbride

[Royale with Cheese]

Not true at all. For years, I've been the one banging the drum loudest on this site with regard to the importance of sacks taken by and sack rates for qbs. To be fair, sack yardage lost is factored into team QB ratings (albeit not individual player ratings).

 

So with all the things PFF doesn't provide, why does it sound like you think it's a real stat?

[dave mcbride]

 

So with all the things PFF doesn't provide, why does it sound like you think it's a real stat?

I don't understand your question.

[Royale with Cheese]

I don't understand your question.

 

I believe our debate is whether or not a site like PFF is a real stat.

IMO, with all the stuff PFF doesn't provide and elements of subjectivity it has, I don't feel is a legit or real stat. Especially when they use NFL rewind to evaluate the game.

 

I think PFF is best used as a tool for fans to debate on a message board but shouldn't be used as an official or legit statistic.

[dave mcbride]

 

I believe our debate is whether or not a site like PFF is a real stat.

IMO, with all the stuff PFF doesn't provide and elements of subjectivity it has, I don't feel is a legit or real stat. Especially when they use NFL rewind to evaluate the game.

 

I think PFF is best used as a tool for fans to debate on a message board but shouldn't be used as an official or legit statistic.

I honestly don't care what is "real" and not "real" as it pertains to "official" status. So let's get past that right away.

 

The reason I focused so much years ago on sacks taken is because we basically had a perfect lab experiment with Flutie and Johnson - they both played behind the same line, and while Flutie's sack rates were pretty low, Johnson's were not only record-breaking, they completely crippled the offense. However, that didn't get factored into QB rating. It did, however, get factored into team qb rating by way of yards lost on sacks. I've long felt that while sacks aren't always on the QB, the most sacked QBs deserves some of the blame because they hold it too long. It's a weakness, and indeed it's been a flaw of Taylor's. That said, some of his "sacks" are on scrambles back to the LOS rather than crippling strip sacks on blindside hits. He doesn't fumble much at all.

 

The latter point has absolutely nothing to do with PFF, btw.

Edited September 11, 2017 by dave mcbride

[Kirby Jackson]

I can see the Bills being a playoff team with Tyrod. Unfortunately I don't see them being a superbowl team.

Agreed

 

It's odd to me when people say that they can't see him being a playoff QB. When he left the field for the last time (in regulation) last year the Bills were a win against an awful football team from being in the playoffs. He handed the defense the lead with a minute to go and they couldn't hold it (thanks Rex). Obviously he can be a playoff QB.

[34-78-83]

This:

 

TT game is not suited for today's NFL - it is suited for college....broken plays, throwing to wide open receivers, running. NFL QB's need to throw QUICKLY to spots that are not yet open - this is simply something that TT does not do.

 

I would love to see the Bills play a "TT" offense - let him run by design 10-12 times - spread things out....problem is - he won't survive 16+ games doing that - the coaches know that and don't design for it. Could get a similar type back up I guess...

 

Right now TT is a square peg in a round hole....

Nope... untrue.

and it's the same "game" that's used in varying degrees by Russel Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Rothlisburger.

If he were to continue his trend from the small sample yesterday of working the middle, keeping his eyes down field and leading the receivers ( he did an excellent job of that yesterday) he would be COMPLETELY "suited for today's NFL".

Will that happen?

Not entirely likely but players do often improve and fans don't often take that into account.

[Royale with Cheese]

I honestly don't care what is "real" and not "real" as it pertains to "official" status. So let's get past that right away.

 

The reason I focused so much years ago on sacks taken is because we basically had a perfect lab experiment with Flutie and Johnson - they both played behind the same line, and while Flutie's sack rates were pretty low, Johnson's were not only record-breaking, they completely crippled the offense. However, that didn't get factored into QB rating. It did, however, get factored into team qb rating by way of yards lost on sacks. I've long felt that while sacks aren't always on the QB, the most sacked QBs deserves some of the blame because they hold it too long. It's a weakness, and indeed it's been a flaw of Taylor's. That said, some of his "sacks" are on scrambles back to the LOS rather than crippling strip sacks on blindside hits. He doesn't fumble much at all.

 

The latter point has absolutely nothing to do with PFF, btw.

 

Okay we can get past that but you were defending that it was a real statistic. You argued with both me and Kidd about it.

This was exactly our debate.

[dave mcbride]

 

Okay we can get past that but you were defending that it was a real statistic. You argued with both me and Kidd about it.

This was exactly our debate.

Drops are a definitely "real" statistic in my opinion because they are important plays and can be measured with at least a decent degree of accuracy. I just could care less about whether it's "official." That's my point. You're stressing "official," which -- to repeat -- I couldn't care less about as it pertains to this.

 

In any event, hadn't we switched to sacks taken? That is a "real" stat by your measure.

Edited September 11, 2017 by dave mcbride

[hondo in seattle]

PFF is imperfect and subjective but neither criticism makes it useless. I think it's great folks are trying to figure out better ways to quantify performance in football.

 

I don't know if it's been mentioned here but Chris Collinsworth liked PFF so much he recently bought it. Thirty NFL teams subscribe to their services. Not as a be-all/end-all, but simply as another perspective that might have value.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2017/09/06/cris-collinsworth-focus-has-never-been-better/I1C0h5RBMC5QygPleCYRXM/amp.html

Edited September 11, 2017 by hondo in seattle

[Royale with Cheese]

Drops are a definitely "real" statistic in my opinion because they are important plays and can be measured with at least a decent degree of accuracy. I just could care less about whether it's "official." That's my point. You're stressing "official," which -- to repeat -- I couldn't care less about as it pertains to this.

 

In any event, hadn't we switched to sacks taken? That is a "real" stat by your measure.

 

Drops are a subjective stat so it's not real or official. One person can say this is a drop and the other may not.

Sacks are a real stat because if the QB is stopped behind the LOS is considered a sack. It's objective.