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Football Outsiders: Bills will be 'measurably worse' in 2017


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http://buffalonews.com/2017/05/30/football-outsiders-editor-bills-will-measurably-worse-2017/


"Departures will leave the Buffalo Bills depending an awful lot on rookies this year, and rookies don't always fulfill their potential right away (if ever). Two of last year's top three receivers are gone. Two of last year's top three cornerbacks are gone. And while LeSean McCoy is still around to keep the running game dangerous, Mike Gillislee was outstanding last year and losing him really hurts Buffalo's depth."


I've said before, Gillislee was a big loss.

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I'll stick with my 7-9. Hopeful with this Coaching staff though.

 

Rex tricked me into dropping my patented 6-10 last year....

 

I still am abashed at what I was hoping for on the BBMB prediction thread...

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i'm prepared for anything but insist that tangible improvement is on display week by week

Hoping for a competitive team that is well coached, fundamentally sound and aggressive. I know we don't have all of the talent necessary from a championship, but I'll be happy if I see that everything else is in place and that some of the talent is in place. Then I'll know we have a chance in the not too distant future.

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Total bunk. The only rookie they'll be relying-on to replace a departed player is White, for Gilmore. But with the move back to the 4-3, which suits most of the players and is a reason the defense will be much-improved, it will help the secondary. The biggest question is whether Ragland can play MLB.

 

On offense, Holmes and Brown can easily replace what they lost in Woods and Goodwin. If Zay Jones turns out to be a stud, so much the better, and the same goes if Dawkins can be an upgrade over Mills.

 

Don't also forget adding Hauschka. And Rehkow has a good shot of replacing Schimdt.

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These sorts of analyses don't take coaching into account. I'm hoping the switch from Rex to McDermott alone is worth a few wins. I firmly believe we should have been in the playoffs last year. We needed to not have three 200 yard rushers last year, that's literally the only difference between playoffs and not. If the scheme makes our run game better we should be in a good spot. Still not sold on McDermott. But that will be the deciding factor.

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Hoping for a competitive team that is well coached, fundamentally sound and aggressive. I know we don't have all of the talent necessary from a championship, but I'll be happy if I see that everything else is in place and that some of the talent is in place. Then I'll know we have a chance in the not too distant future.

 

It's a new 3-year plan for me, it if clicks brilliantly in this 1st season, I'll be very happy.

These sorts of analyses don't take coaching into account. I'm hoping the switch from Rex to McDermott alone is worth a few wins. I firmly believe we should have been in the playoffs last year. We needed to not have three 200 yard rushers last year, that's literally the only difference between playoffs and not. If the scheme makes our run game better we should be in a good spot. Still not sold on McDermott. But that will be the deciding factor.

 

A team has to learn to put away an easy win in the first half, to seal the deal against contenders in the 4th including strong 2 minute drives, this doesn't just pop up magically, it takes blowing it a few times to get it going.

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These sorts of analyses don't take coaching into account. I'm hoping the switch from Rex to McDermott alone is worth a few wins. I firmly believe we should have been in the playoffs last year. We needed to not have three 200 yard rushers last year, that's literally the only difference between playoffs and not. If the scheme makes our run game better we should be in a good spot. Still not sold on McDermott. But that will be the deciding factor.

I agree. Analysis of the roster does very little for me.

 

Plus, even the roster analysis is light. The Bills are probably BETTER at safety than they were last year, and there's a good chance they're no worse at corner. They lost Brown and gain Ragland.

 

What happens at receiver is much dependent on what Watkins does. If he's what he should be, the Bills have more than enough talent at receiver to replace the guys lost.

 

The roster isn't the issue. The coach is the issue. And there are only two questions about the coach: Will he succeed? How soon?

 

After that, Tyrod is the only question. If the Bills get two good answers about the coach and one about Tyrod, the rest of the roster is fine.

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It's too early to make these kinds of projections. The Bills are still being rebuilt at this point. If they can fill a few more holes who knows what can happen.

 

The new schemes/coaches can definitely make a difference.

 

The Bills would have been in the playoffs last year had Carp. made the 40+ FG in the second Miami game. They would have beaten the Jets w/ Taylor at QB.

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It was sarcasm. Then again we are "measurably worse."

 

 

Just agreeing with what everyone is boldly predicting on here. Wondering how to wager $1,000 preseason on the success of the BIlls....

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This article seems to hit the wrong weaknesses to me:

 

- Lost Top 2 of 3 WRs? True but for one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL. In terms of production clay was #1 woods #2 and McCoy #3 followed by goowin then Sammy. So they will need to replace woods 50 catches and goodwins 28. Given zay and a bunch of decent free agents, plus Sammy in a contract year, this group is stronger

 

- CB- Gilmore was a loss, White was a gain. The whole backfield was rebooted and Scheme sounds like it shifts predominantly to zone. We really have no clue what's going to happen to this unit so it's definitely the biggest unknown. And SAFETY is a total rebuild although with Hyde, I'd argue a positive one.

 

- gilly - the guy was on the bills practice squad after being cut twice by others. There are other guys that can produce 600 yds. And the pats overpaid for him leaving no choice. Back up RB may be the most easily replaced position in the league with high quality choices.

 

Weaknesses to me:

 

- a front four without a stud DE that can set the edge and get to the QB is the top concern. When the bills front 4 was very good they had a motivated Mario. A new weakness this year moving back to this alignment unless Shaq can be great.

 

- new run scheme. I'd argue last year was great for Shady. Not automatically sold the new scheme will be even better

 

- LBs - with out Fantastic ends setting the edge Are the LBs going to get beat outside because their slow? And if they do are the corners going to be there to make the tackle?

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