John from Riverside Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Man....Chicago getting torched for taking Tribusky today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted April 28, 2017 Author Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) So you moved the goalposts. You liked the 10th and later numbers betters instead of inside the top ten numbers. You do realize the 10th pick could be either. The 10th pick is, by definition, inside the top ten. I grant your point on the confusion. For my analysis, anyone 1-9 was inside the top ten. In any case, there were only 2 QBs taken as the 10th pick and both were failures (Gabbert, Leinart). So, add them to the "top 10" and the odds of finding success in that cohort is reduced from 33% success to 31%. For those taken outside the top 10, the odds leap from 14.3% success to 15.8% success. Still very bad odds. Of the franchise QBs inside the top 10 that I noted, the latest any of them were drafted in the 1st round was the 4th overall pick (Rivers). Yikes. Hopefully, the Bills can trade up into the top 4 next year with those two first rounders! EdW Edited April 28, 2017 by BisonMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 I grant your point on the confusion. For my analysis, anyone 1-9 was inside the top ten. In any case, there were only 2 QBs taken as the 10th pick and both were failures (Gabbert, Leinart). So, add them to the "top 10" and the odds of finding success in that cohort is reduced from 33% success to 31%. For those taken outside the top 10, the odds leap from 14.3% success to 15.8% success. Still very bad odds. Of the franchise QBs inside the top 10 that I noted, the latest any of them were drafted in the 1st round was the 4th overall pick (Rivers). Yikes. Hopefully, the Bills can trade up into the top 4 next year with those two first rounders! EdW So your entire post was to demonstrate that a QB taken 10th should have QB's drafted at the end of the 1st round in his data set instead of QB's drafted at 9, 8, or 7. Well, I disagree with the usefulness of those numbers. Then we have to go to your decision to make the success rate based on hitting on a franchise QB. That can be subjective and you really need to show your work as to what you think a successful outcome would be. I like what you are trying to do here but in order for it to be accepted more work needs to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) I like that we moved back and picked up a few more picks..........2 firsts next year will give us some leverage for when Whaley wants to blow those picks on a WR. Edited April 28, 2017 by Sweats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) ......disagree......it provided a significant synopsis of the decline in the QB spot except for a very small few...."franchise QB" is a worn out cliche', a discussion crutch...."superstar"?.....once in a decade if you're lucky......just give me a solid, dependable starter who I can depend on to execute a 60/40 run offense OR if I need him to adjust to get the "W", a 40/60......if your offense does not have the flexibility to win in multiple ways, forget it................ I agree...and we already have him. Let's see what TT can do under Dennison. He's had two years with the results you've just described...He's a decent starter...now let's see if he can be better. Edited April 28, 2017 by Domdab99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 (edited) The real question is when is Jeff going to change his avatar? I mean it's one thing on a Bills board to have a picture of your favorite Bills player, but at this point you just have a picture of a 22 year old kid you like... Edited April 28, 2017 by ndirish1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Your math is off. You said QB's taken top ten have a 8/24 chance for success. That is 1 out of 3. So you said the other side is 6/7, which is 85%. No. The other side of 33% is 66%. Then you use wrong percentage as your opening header. Maybe change that to using a top ten pick on a QB in the top ten has a 33% chance of very high success. I like those odds. Give me QB at ten and if that isn't a franchise guy I take another shot the next year with a top ten. Thanks for providing a great argument for using a high top ten pick on the QB position. Now remove anyone taken at 1 or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffismagic Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 The real question is when is Jeff going to change his avatar? I mean it's one thing on a Bills board to have a picture of your favorite Bills player, but at this point you just have a picture of a 22 year old kid you like... I have a bet going that the Bills will take Chad Kelly. If I lose my avatar will be changed anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Lazy hackey analysis. Same old clichés in that guy's post. It's about producing a starting QB, really, not a superstar. Go through the list of QBs drafted and then started significant game numbers their fisrt year and you will see that today's "college game" does at least as well as it did 30 years ago at this. Seems to me like the goal should be improving upon our current starting QB, not just finding a starting QB period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuvian Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 from OBD personnel manual found in dumpster draft CB and RB every year let Pro Bowl RB go because of "attitude" watch Pro Bowl RB win SB on new team let Pro Bowl calibre CB go to division rival and draft his cheaper replacement Bring in developmental or veteran retread QB and convince fan base he is a franchise QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 (edited) Among those "franchise qb's" in the top 10 there are two rings by eli. The rest will never win one. Yes I mean that. Ryan, palmer, Stafford, newton. None of them will get a ring The other three outsid of that have 6, I think. Edited April 29, 2017 by Boyst62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 from OBD personnel manual found in dumpster draft CB and RB every year let Pro Bowl RB go because of "attitude" watch Pro Bowl RB win SB on new team let Pro Bowl calibre CB go to division rival and draft his cheaper replacement Bring in developmental or veteran retread QB and convince fan base he is a franchise QB It's not in the dumpster, it is on top of T Pegs toilet for his reading material... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Here is what I see. Put the emotion aside, the Bills are trending towards another 6, 7, 8 win season. That means next season the Bills will be picking in the 9th - 11th range. The Chiefs were 12-4 last year. Say they drop 2 games, go to 10-6. They will be picking in the low 20's. The 10th pick and 23rd pick will not be enough to get up to the top of the draft to get Darnold or Rosen. Why do fans (and analysts who agree) say that "its a QB driven league" when the Bills NEVER DRAFT A QB? When is the right time? Because we are going on Year 3 with Baltimore's backup. Just like we did 3 years with Trent Edwards, and 3 more years with Ryan Fitzpatrick. When are we going to get our QB? You could also include a future 1st for Darnold. It's 3 1sts so should get it done. That's going all in on a franchise QB right? It's just going to come down to who owns the first pick and possibly second pick. Moving down isn't a bad idea if the only QB they thought was worth a first was Trubisky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Scenario for a top pick in 2018. The Bills have a tough schedule as does KC. Another 7-9 season will land them in the top 10 again, and an Alex smith injury could do the same with their other first. If Chicago ends up with the worst record, they will be ready to deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 trading back was great, trading two thirds was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweats Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 trading back was great, trading two thirds was not. I didn't like it either, but apparently the FO were "sold" on "their" guys and shot from the hip to draft them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Scenario for a top pick in 2018. The Bills have a tough schedule as does KC. Another 7-9 season will land them in the top 10 again, and an Alex smith injury could do the same with their other first. If Chicago ends up with the worst record, they will be ready to deal. I'm praying KC flops hard and we get the top pick, maybe Alex Smith gets hurt and bad feet Mahomes plays, that should do the trick. If not maybe we can do it with a TT injury. IF Darnold plays like last year I would pull a Ditka or give 3 or 4 number ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideRightRevenge Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 I have a bet going that the Bills will take Chad Kelly. If I lose my avatar will be changed anyway. What will the new Avatar be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 I didn't like it either, but apparently the FO were "sold" on "their" guys and shot from the hip to draft them. better be sold. I think we could have down better at CB and RT, especially when we drafted a guard and slow small corner. I have a bet going that the Bills will take Chad Kelly. If I lose my avatar will be changed anyway. does this include UDFA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Wasn't smarter than taking OJ Howard... What about all the picks we missed out on in rounds 3&4??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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