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PFT: Bill's one player loss away from 3rd round comp pick


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Since fans claim comp picks of no importance why even bother drafting players at all period?

Why should just ask the NFL to take em all back

I mean why would fans of any team actually want free extra 3rd and 4th round picks?

We can compete well enough with signing dumpster dive FA's....

Lol

 

jc

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Lots of interesting comments on here about comp picks...I can't imagine what all the confusion is about. Picks are good right?

 

Come on folks. Positive vibes is what this team needs.

 

Let's go Bills! More picks, more players, more players, more chances to get good ones...pretty simple logic!

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Don't bring logic into the thread ajmac

Of course more draft picks, especially 3rd and 4th rounders are good, lol

In fact they are 'great'

Especially since they are salaried at approx $575,000 and $500,000 for 4 years

Our Bills would be in a fantastic position having 9 draft picks in 2018 including 6 in the first 4 rounds

 

jc

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They just changed the rule last year.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/19/compensatory-picks-can-be-traded-in-next-years-draft/

 

I don't understand the craziness about comp draft picks. We have to lose players to get the additional picks. I mean we can push it over the edge if need be by not signing someone until after a certain point or whatever but the fans thinking we should base free agency around it is ridiculous.

 

 

 

You shouldn't base all of your free agency around it, but yeah, it should be an important thing to keep in mind. One of the most important.

 

The smart teams, the best teams do it. The worst teams don't. That says an awful lot. Picks are the way to keep costs down and your team away from the cap. They give you young energetic guys who are on rookie contracts and can be developed and used to fill gaps and play STs and they can now be traded besides.

 

Draft efficacy studies consistently show that the way to draft well isn't to make great choices, that nobody is that much better than any other GM at making those choices though some are considerably worse than average, that the way to succeed is to acquire picks so you get more chances to make choices. And comp picks are one way to do that. Massey and Thaler are the most famous of those studies but there are a bunch and they all say the same thing. Wanna be a good-drafting team? Pick up picks.

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Zb, Douzable, corbin, felton, gragg will probably all get picked up. Even guys like blanton, white, and tate have a chance. Thats why i didnt understand all the complaining about not getting any, a week into free agency is perhaps a little premature.

 

I can see the bills adding another wr and cb, guys like vernon or snead wouldnt even count either. I think the bills will walk away with multiple comp picks next year

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The one thing I've learned about comp picks this past week or so is that no one on the board truly understands exactly how the system actually works.

thats because it's a "secret formula" that the league has not revealed. Some of the factors have been figured out such as contract amount, playing time, and postseason honors. but the league is intentionally keeping it under wraps. Edited by YoloinOhio
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Good, Can they pay a team to sign IK, Meeks, or Douzable?

 

So say... just before the deadline for when Comp picks are computed from, if we're still short....offer Cleveland, since they're playing Moneyball, a 7th rd pick to sign two of them??

Edited by cage
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So there's two different ways to get comp picks..

1. Lose more players then you sign (this is out of the question because we need to fill out our roster)

2. Lose better players then you sign (lost Gilmore, Woods, Goodwin signed Hyde)

 

It's a two step process:

 

You receive comp picks if you lose more eligible UFAs vs. than you gain. It is pretty simple to determine what UFAs are eligible and which are not.

 

THEN

 

the round is determined based on contract and performance.

 

If you are not at a net loss of UFAs, there is a process to determine compensation based on a quality of FAs. From overthecap.com:

  • The formula will occasionally award one “net value” compensatory pick for a team if that team loses and gains an equal number of CFAs, but the value of the CFAs lost is considerably greater than the value of CFAs gained. Adam once observed that the difference needs to be at least 50%, and this is the difference that OTC’s program will currently use unless additional information suggests otherwise. Net value compensatory picks are always 7th round picks, and they are always placed in order immediately after the regular 7th round compensatory picks.
  • If, after awarding both regular and net-value compensatory picks, there are less than 32 picks awarded, the formula will award “supplemental” compensatory picks to ensure that the total number of compensatory picks is always exactly 32. These supplemental picks are awarded in the order of what would be the eighth round of the draft, if an eighth round existed.

 

If you sign more eligible UFAs than you lose, you do not receive any significant compensation. For example, if you lost two eligible players who signed the two highest contracts in NFL history and were All-Pros but signed 3 eligible bottom barrel UFAs, your likely compensation would be a 6th or 7th round pick.

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Notable compensatory picks:

 

Tom Brady (6th round)

Brian Dawkins (2nd round)

Larry Allen (2nd round)

Hines Ward (3rd round)

 

recent comp picks:

Dak Prescott

Kenneth Dixon

Kyle Juszczyk

Ricky Wagner

Pernell McPhee

 

It's not that teams should forego filling out their roster every offseason in order to gain comp picks every year, but that when you have the opportunity to get an extra 3rd round pick (which will be a lock with Gilmore's contract) you should work the system to get that pick. I still think the Bills are in a good position to get 2 comp picks next year for Woods and Gilmore(3rd and 4th rounder most likely).

 

In the example of the Bills this year, how much is a 3rd round pick in next year's draft worth? Would you trade Ryan Davis and Vlad Ducasse for a 3rd and 4th round pick next year? I think you absolutely would.

 

Secondly, with the new rule that these picks are now eligible for trade, these picks take on added value.

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Lots of interesting comments on here about comp picks...I can't imagine what all the confusion is about. Picks are good right?

 

Come on folks. Positive vibes is what this team needs.

 

Let's go Bills! More picks, more players, more players, more chances to get good ones...pretty simple logic!

 

 

You can't really have it both ways. More players = fewer picks in regards to compensatory picks.

 

 

I think it's easier for good teams to play this game because they have fewer holes to fill. Teams like the Bills might value a guy that has proven he belongs in the league (albeit not a star, but a OK rotational guy) over the potential of a draft pick. You can still pick up some guys later after the draft or whatever the cut off day is for the comp pick formula, so I can see the criticism of picking up the lower end FA's when you might be sacrificing a draft pick.

 

 

With a new coaching staff, I might lean towards picking up the free agents because these are guys with more film who will probably be able to help right away.

Edited by elroy16
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