Bookie Man Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Thanks Erik. Good stuff as always. Good God! In the shotgun 88% of the time?. I'm not a huge Tyrod guy, but here's to hoping the new system and coaches can revive this passing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cd1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 you can put his play in any context you want. it is possible to spin stats in any direction you please. however,the facts all remain the same: 1. He cannot throw an accurate 10-15 yard out pattern. They float - and sail out of bounds more than they should. Which leads to... 2. He is a low velocity thrower - he will never be strong at throwing receivers open. He can float a nice deep ball - but dont confuse that with arm strength. 3. His pocket presence is below average. His sack rate is high because of this - not because he scrambles so much. Watch the tape and watch where he steps in the pocket when under duress. He chooses to step up, left or right incorrectly very very often. Tyrod is fine. That is all. His stat line last year will be his stat line every year so long as he plays in a safe, run first offense where the defense stacks the box. Anytime he faces a pass protect D...he struggles. Why else would Tyrod agree to the contract restructure he did if anyone in the league saw him as something better than his stat suggested? If there were better offers coming, he would have forced the Bills to cut him or take his contract as is (locking him in for 3 years, not 2). Tyrod is fine...so we all better hope we have a Top 5 D in the next year or two...or 8-8 will be the average. YAWN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That's some major number crunching but I still don't see Taylor passing for over 3,000 yds and putting up over 24 TD's. There are maybe 3 defenses in the NFL that can slow down passing offenses with the way the rules are currently setup. We need more passing offense and we need the QB to respond in crunch time. In the Raiders game our defense played bad but Taylor and the offense were up by 2 TD's when the Raiders started to make a comeback and didn't respond with anything. I just dont see this team winning a super bowl with Taylor and that is what you strive for every season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 and he didnt play those shotgun snaps that were showing sacks at half the rate? Do you know that? If he didn't then I'm wrong. lol wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) This shows that Tyrod was better off drops than off shotgun. But it assumes that the reason why is clear, which it really isn't quite. Did he do better because teams were prepared for shotgun and got crossed up by seeing him drop back since he did it so infrequently? Because he's naturally better at it? Because he was throwing shorter or longer or to different route combos in those plays? It really isn't clear. The assumption in this article is that they know better than the coaches who saw Tyrod at practice every day. I would guess that that is doubtful. It's interesting. I don't think it necessarily shows what they think it shows. Edited March 13, 2017 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 for perspective -- 46 passes for 404 yards is more or less on the high end for a shoot out gunslinger day (brees averaged 42 per game last year). if i told you that came with 8 sacks and 7 balls thrown away -- that is a huge red flag for a set that small. Was our protection considerably worse in those situations? or TT not doing something right in the pocket? Plus the scramble yardage was GREAT out of the shotgun (approximately 1 yard per each dropback) and weaker under center (approximately 0.6 yards per dropback). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) Do you know that? If he didn't then I'm wrong. lol wouldn't be the first time. my point was that unless there is some variable in there that isnt accounted for (which could be injuries during a game that had a higher percentage of under center snaps, and a beast pass rusher having a couple big plays in those situations).... the fact that his sack rate doubles and throw aways sky rocket doesnt jive well with the assertion that he was getting stuff out on time and efficiently though. with the small sample it could easily be something other than tyrod that tanks those numbers (or was pulling up some of the others to look better than shotgun) -- so, more context needed? Edited March 13, 2017 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Thanks Erik. Good stuff as always. Good God! In the shotgun 88% of the time?. I'm not a huge Tyrod guy, but here's to hoping the new system and coaches can revive this passing game. For real. Don't coaches look at / use this type of data during the season? "He's not that great out of the shotgun. I know, let's use the SHOTGUN! Fool everyone!" Let's hope that Dennison plays to Tyrod's strengths, not his weaknesses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 For real. Don't coaches look at / use this type of data during the season? "He's not that great out of the shotgun. I know, let's use the SHOTGUN! Fool everyone!" Let's hope that Dennison plays to Tyrod's strengths, not his weaknesses... Reminds me of when I used to play Strat-O-Matic football and throw a bomb to Lou Piccone every other play because "no one would expect it!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Do you know that? If he didn't then I'm wrong. lol wouldn't be the first time. The point NoSaint is making is that Mills was out there for both. It makes the reason he solely was difference between sacks allowed under center and sacks allowed out of the shotgun unlikely. But to your point NoSaint, could it be as simple as the gun, while worse for TT's passing ability, better for his elusiveness? Has to be easier to avoid the rush when they take wider angles, less up front pressure, etc. Furthermore, I think we need a contrast between 2016 and 2015. He was a much better producer in '15 and for all we know, he murdered it in the gun versus under center that entire year. Context and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 you can put his play in any context you want. it is possible to spin stats in any direction you please. however,the facts all remain the same: 1. He cannot throw an accurate 10-15 yard out pattern. They float - and sail out of bounds more than they should. Which leads to... 2. He is a low velocity thrower - he will never be strong at throwing receivers open. He can float a nice deep ball - but dont confuse that with arm strength. 3. His pocket presence is below average. His sack rate is high because of this - not because he scrambles so much. Watch the tape and watch where he steps in the pocket when under duress. He chooses to step up, left or right incorrectly very very often. Tyrod is fine. That is all. His stat line last year will be his stat line every year so long as he plays in a safe, run first offense where the defense stacks the box. Anytime he faces a pass protect D...he struggles. Why else would Tyrod agree to the contract restructure he did if anyone in the league saw him as something better than his stat suggested? If there were better offers coming, he would have forced the Bills to cut him or take his contract as is (locking him in for 3 years, not 2). Tyrod is fine...so we all better hope we have a Top 5 D in the next year or two...or 8-8 will be the average. Matt Ryan stat line was much better last season than his previous 8 seasons. His QBR and passer rating were - by far - the best of his career. In other words, (1) scheme and coaching matter; (2) QBs do sometimes get better. Nobody knows if Tyrod stats will improve the way Ryan's did. However, Tyrod did run an offense that was designed by a coach (Roman) who isn't know for his aerial attack and run by a coach (Lynn) that had no experience with the passing game. It's easy to see why some people expect more success out of Tyrod in a Dennison offense. The point of the article is not that Dennison will fix Tyrod's deficiencies which are real. The point is that last year's offense tended to play to Tyrod's weaknesses instead of his strengths. If so, Dennison might get more productivity out of Tyrod by leaning on what Tyrod does best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 (edited) The point NoSaint is making is that Mills was out there for both. It makes the reason he solely was difference between sacks allowed under center and sacks allowed out of the shotgun unlikely. But to your point NoSaint, could it be as simple as the gun, while worse for TT's passing ability, better for his elusiveness? Has to be easier to avoid the rush when they take wider angles, less up front pressure, etc. Furthermore, I think we need a contrast between 2016 and 2015. He was a much better producer in '15 and for all we know, he murdered it in the gun versus under center that entire year. Context and all that. oh, theres certainly conversation to be had -- im not sure the answer. thats why i am hoping that the dude that just charted the whole season might have better insight than me spouting off my gut feeling (ill admit, im not one that thinks TT has effectively hit his back foot and fired darts when dropping back, but i couldnt tell you the stats compared to any type of benchmark). it could be a variety of things but statistically that sure stands out in an argument that he had better presence in those handful of snaps. Edited March 13, 2017 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cd1 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This shows that Tyrod was better off drops than off shotgun. But it assumes that the reason why is clear, which it really isn't quite. Did he do better because teams were prepared for shotgun and got crossed up by seeing him drop back since he did it so infrequently? Because he's naturally better at it? Because he was throwing shorter or longer or to different route combos in those plays? It really isn't clear. The assumption in this article is that they know better than the coaches who saw Tyrod at practice every day. I would guess that that is doubtful. It's interesting. I don't think it necessarily shows what they think it shows. I think they were trying to point out that the way TT was coached was NOT to improve TT but with the run first/don't make mistakes focus. That what we witnessed in 2016 was NOT TTs ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Great stuff as always, Eric. The folks at PFF should enroll at the Scouting Academy. Been arguing with them for years about context. Once got laughed out of a thread here years ago for mentioning the word context, too. Was told you don't need context to see if a guy sucks or not. No, it's not rocket science, but with so many moving parts on any given play, context provides more depth of analysis. I'm not entirely sold on TT as a QB, but he provided a lot of context to the coaches during their process of breaking him down and I trust that put them in a far better position to make an informed decision. Context is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 for perspective -- 46 passes for 404 yards is more or less on the high end for a shoot out gunslinger day (brees averaged 42 per game last year). if i told you that came with 8 sacks and 7 balls thrown away -- that is a huge red flag for a set that small. Was our protection considerably worse in those situations? or TT not doing something right in the pocket? There were quite a few games where we struggled in pass protection. Baltimore comes to mind. NYJ1, MIA1, and Seattle also seemed to have a lot of protection breakdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 A lot of times we as fans criticize players on their play or style of play but fail to recognize the context of their play within the scope of the offense. I am currently going through scouting school at the Scouting Academy and the first thing they teach is context. So we wanted to analyze TT's play within the context of the offense-what it asked of him. Then to figure out where and how he could have been better or better utilized. Rylan charted the entire 2016 season and this is what he found. After reading this, I am sure you can see why he was brought back to be paired with Rick Dennison. http://www.cover1.net/2017/03/tyrod-taylors-2016-passing-campaign-misinterpreted-misused/ Very encouraging analysis! I've been a fan of keeping Tyrod and after seeing this, feel even better about that. Not sure if its possible to break these down either for individual games or clusters of games? I would love to see the comparison of how this looks contrasting his three best games vs. his three worst games. The games could just be selected based on QB Rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Thanks for the article. Interesting read. It kinda ties in with something I remember talking about after his 2015 campaign where I'm pretty sure Taylor was much more successful under center than in shotgun. Seems being under center really helps with footwork and timing routes. I haven't gone back and watched the Dennison offense very much. Does Dennison seem to use shotgun less or more than Roman/Lynn? The deep 7 step drop thing makes sense, too. I wonder if there's a way to emphasize taking a "3 step drop" or something even out of the shotgun whenever he's there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This shows that Tyrod was better off drops than off shotgun. But it assumes that the reason why is clear, which it really isn't quite. Did he do better because teams were prepared for shotgun and got crossed up by seeing him drop back since he did it so infrequently? Because he's naturally better at it? Because he was throwing shorter or longer or to different route combos in those plays? It really isn't clear. The assumption in this article is that they know better than the coaches who saw Tyrod at practice every day. I would guess that that is doubtful. It's interesting. I don't think it necessarily shows what they think it shows. I'm with you on this. The data show correlation, not causation. There may be many reasons that his success correlated with being under center, not just that "he's better at it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What is interesting to me is I always thought TT was not a very good quick throw passer The numbers say the exact opposite Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What is interesting to me is I always thought TT was not a very good quick throw passer The numbers say the exact opposite Interesting I think you were right in the sense that TT didn't always identify and deliver the quick throw when maybe he should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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