DrDawkinstein Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 No. I think Whaley could be gone with a 6-10 record. If that were to actually happen, we should all give up on this team and the Pegulas. Firing your GM 1 year after bringing in a new coaching staff (which was only 2 years after the previous flip mind you) is a recipe for continual disaster. New GM then wants to replace Coaching Staff, rinse repeat forever. Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) First two seasons as a starter he's been in the category of "average NFL starting QB." If that's what you consider to be a "bum" then okey dokey. The fact remains that the smart move is to keep your average starter until you have a better option on your roster. Not before. Otherwise you're just being reckless like they were reckless in 2013 after releasing Fitzpatrick then choosing a 4th round QB talent in the 1st round because they were so desperate for a QB because they didn't have one that wasn't a tap on the head away from being finished. Only this time it would be worse because they didn't learn from their mistake of four years ago. http://youtube.com/watch?v=DJDp4pT408Y&feature=onebox Renegotiate down to 2m a year and I'm in. Waste of time Edited January 23, 2017 by Ryan L Billz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Nope. But that's where you have the best chance. Guys like Dak aren't in every draft. Drafting quarterbacks is a total crapshoot whether you're choosing #1 or #32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 JP has thrown that ball. JP wasn't milquetoast(one word as in Casper Milquetoast aka Marv Levy).........he was just bad with one passable skill. The deep ball evades many decent QB's but Tyrod hyazit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 How does keeping Taylor secure his job? Also, what if the HC and OC went to Whaley and said to keep Taylor? Simple: the owner would declare "I'm am making a 'business decision'---he goes!". And then the HC, the OC and the GM would all say "we weren't privy to that conversation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 If that were to actually happen, we should all give up on this team and the Pegulas. Firing your GM 1 year after bringing in a new coaching staff (which was only 2 years after the previous flip mind you) is a recipe for continual disaster. New GM then wants to replace Coaching Staff, rinse repeat forever. Not gonna happen. Way ahead of you bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Way ahead of you bro. I mean give up on them to the point you stop posting. Go for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) Drafting quarterbacks is a total crapshoot whether you're choosing #1 or #32. That's actually, unequivocally, incorrect. You have a higher chance of drafting a franchise in the top 10 than the rest of the 1st. The crapshoot argument is for folks who think Whaley's done fine because he drafted 1 QB in 3 years in the 4th round.. Edited January 23, 2017 by FireChan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm the opposite. I'm kind of okay with either. I think my gut says release my head says keep.... but the one thing that will annoy the hell out of me is the Bills standing pat with Tyrod and not taking shots if guys fall to them in the draft. That was what we did with Fitz and when the point came when we decided to pull the plug we had nothing at QB at all. They have keep taking shots in the draft. Agreed, although after playing through the various scenarios in my head I do favor keeping Tyrod for at least this season and think releasing him signals that 2017 will be a lost season. The only way releasing Tyrod makes sense is if the coaches believe either Cardale will be ready, there's a FA they can acquire and win with, or the QB they are going to draft is capable of starting immediately. I don't see any such QBs in this draft. I'd like for the Bills to keep Tyrod, see how his development continues, and draft a QB within the first 3-4 rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Agreed, although after playing through the various scenarios in my head I do favor keeping Tyrod for at least this season and think releasing him signals that 2017 will be a lost season. The only way releasing Tyrod makes sense is if the coaches believe either Cardale will be ready, there's a FA they can acquire and win with, or the QB they are going to draft is capable of starting immediately. I don't see any such QBs in this draft. I'd like for the Bills to keep Tyrod, see how his development continues, and draft a QB within the first 3-4 rounds. Best move is to say that Tyrod keeps us at a certain level and if a guy who can get us beyond that level is available, then take him. We made a mistake cutting Bledsoe, let's not do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) That's actually, unequivocally, incorrect. You have a higher chance of drafting a franchise in the top 10 than the rest of the 1st. The crapshoot argument is for folks who think Whaley's done fine because he drafted 1 QB in 3 years in the 4th round.. The odds do get longer the further you go in the draft. On the other hand, there's really no such thing as a sure thing. As one scout explained it, no college QB is NFL ready. They all have new skills they need to develop. So, as a scout, you try to guess which ones will continue to develop and which ones won't. Nobody can predict that with 100% accuracy. The track record of 1st round QBs is better than the track record of 3rd round QB,s for example, but it's still far from stellar. Some put the hit rate at about 50%, some lower. Whenever you draft a QB, there's a good chance you're wasting your pick. In other words, drafting a QB is indeed a crap shoot though the odds do vary with draft position. The smart route I suppose is to try and try again - and do it in the early rounds. That's not the tactic the Bills have followed. Edited January 23, 2017 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santana Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 How much more can Gillislee shine? I think zone blocking will help him more than shady because he's more of a patient runner. One cut, then down hill as opposed to Shady who typically just gets the ball and goes horizontal as fast as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 And we will watch Bad to AVG QB play that holds the offense back and wastes Shady for the next two years. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forward Progress Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 100% agree. We should've been taking QB's in the first since 2014. Then we wouldn't be in this trainwreck. Okay, I'll play. Let's take the first QB selected after the Bills first pick in each of the last three years and see how much better we would be. Let's cancel the trade up for Sammy while we're at it, so we have three picks to choose from. Here we go... 2014 - Johnny Manziel 2015 - Garrett Grayson 2016 - Paxton Lynch This doesn't feel like the end of the train wreck to me. I don't support the model of picking a QB in round 1 every year, because there are 21 other starting positions on this team and some of them need to be elite to compete. Let's be honest, there are not enough franchise quarterbacks available for every team to have one. In Taylor, we have a slightly below average QB who had low passing stats this year with an injury depleted receiving core, who protects the ball well and is dynamic with his legs. Right now, he is the QB who gives us the best chance to win and should remain our QB until a better QB is on our roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) That's actually, unequivocally, incorrect. You have a higher chance of drafting a franchise in the top 10 than the rest of the 1st. The crapshoot argument is for folks who think Whaley's done fine because he drafted 1 QB in 3 years in the 4th round.. Based upon the 2016 starters in the league, the average draft position was 62. Seventeen 2016 starters were picked in the first round: Carson Palmer Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Cam Newton Bob Griffin Matt Stafford Aaron Rodgers Andrew Luck Blake Bortles Alex Smith Jared Goff Ryan Tannehill Sam Bradford Eli Manning Carson Wentz Philip Rivers Jameis Winston Edited January 23, 2017 by Gugny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Lets hope so. I would love for the bills to sign tyrod and then draft a QB this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The odds do get longer the further you go in the draft. On the other hand, there's really no such thing as a sure thing. As one scout explained it, no college QB is NFL ready. They all have new skills they need to develop. So, as a scout, you try to guess which ones will continue to develop and which ones won't. Nobody can predict that with 100% accuracy. The track record of 1st round QBs is better than the track record of 3rd round QB,s for example, but it's still far from stellar. Some put the hit rate at about 50%, some lower. Whenever you draft a QB, there's a good chance you're wasting your pick. In other words, drafting a QB is indeed a crap shoot though the odds do vary with draft position. The smart route I suppose is to try and try again - and do it in the early rounds. That's not the tactic the Bills have followed. The known measurables are higher earlier in the draft, but the guys who do their homework unearth the good ones at small school later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The odds do get longer the further you go in the draft. On the other hand, there's really no such thing as a sure thing. As one scout explained it, no college QB is NFL ready. They all have new skills they need to develop. So, as a scout, you try to guess which ones will continue to develop and which ones won't. Nobody can predict that with 100% accuracy. The track record of 1st round QBs is better than the track record of 3rd round QB,s for example, but it's still far from stellar. Some put the hit rate at about 50%, some lower. Whenever you draft a QB, there's a good chance you're wasting your pick. In other words, drafting a QB is indeed a crap shoot though the odds do vary with draft position. The smart route I suppose is to try and try again - and do it in the early rounds. That's not the tactic the Bills have followed. Exaclty. I'm not saying there's a sure thing. Just saying that maximizing your chances is logically the best path forward for success. Not taking chances virtually ensures you'll never hit. Okay, I'll play. Let's take the first QB selected after the Bills first pick in each of the last three years and see how much better we would be. Let's cancel the trade up for Sammy while we're at it, so we have three picks to choose from. Here we go... 2014 - Johnny Manziel 2015 - Garrett Grayson 2016 - Paxton Lynch This doesn't feel like the end of the train wreck to me. I don't support the model of picking a QB in round 1 every year, because there are 21 other starting positions on this team and some of them need to be elite to compete. Let's be honest, there are not enough franchise quarterbacks available for every team to have one. In Taylor, we have a slightly below average QB who had low passing stats this year with an injury depleted receiving core, who protects the ball well and is dynamic with his legs. Right now, he is the QB who gives us the best chance to win and should remain our QB until a better QB is on our roster. Why? There's no guarantee we take Manziel over Teddy or Carr. And no, it may not have worked if we took those 3 guys. Although Lynch and Grayson haven't seen any action for a long period of time yet. As to your point about other positions, currently have 3 players who were first round non-QB's on our roster over the last 10 years, 1 is unhealthy but elite, 1 is a drug addict and suspension fiend but elite, and the other is okay. You don't really need first rounders for other positions either. And as we've all seen, no QB means no Super Bowl the vast majority of the time, elite WR's and DT's notwithstanding. Based upon the 2016 starters in the league, the average draft position was 62. Seventeen 2016 starters were picked in the first round: Carson Palmer Matt Ryan Joe Flacco Cam Newton Bob Griffin Matt Stafford Aaron Rodgers Andrew Luck Blake Bortles Alex Smith Jared Goff Ryan Tannehill Sam Bradford Eli Manning Carson Wentz Philip Rivers Jameis Winston If you look historically throughout the NFL, I believe that top 10 runs around 50%. Here's a link from 2008 that I'd say still applies. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/143999-a-case-not-to-draft-a-qb-outside-of-the-1st-round/ I'll try to find the other analysis on 1st rounders. Also, mean is notorious for being affected by outliers. Check the median draft position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Exaclty. I'm not saying there's a sure thing. Just saying that maximizing your chances is logically the best path forward for success. Not taking chances virtually ensures you'll never hit. Why? There's no guarantee we take Manziel over Teddy or Carr. And no, it may not have worked if we took those 3 guys. Although Lynch and Grayson haven't seen any action for a long period of time yet. As to your point about other positions, currently have 3 players who were first round non-QB's on our roster over the last 10 years, 1 is unhealthy but elite, 1 is a drug addict and suspension fiend but elite, and the other is okay. You don't really need first rounders for other positions either. And as we've all seen, no QB means no Super Bowl the vast majority of the time, elite WR's and DT's notwithstanding. If you look historically throughout the NFL, I believe that top 10 runs around 50%. Here's a link from 2008 that I'd say still applies. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/143999-a-case-not-to-draft-a-qb-outside-of-the-1st-round/ I'll try to find the other analysis on 1st rounders. Also, mean is notorious for being affected by outliers. Check the median draft position. I threw this together in about 15 minutes on a quick break from work. i just wanted to continue this part of the discussion, but I'm done with the data part! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I threw this together in about 15 minutes on a quick break from work. i just wanted to continue this part of the discussion, but I'm done with the data part! :-) I also went too fast. Average pick is actually 50. 20 starters were taken in the first (add Ben R., Mariota and Carr). Median is 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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