PromoTheRobot Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I think this really just comes down to a couple missed throws. If Tyrod makes the deep throw to Woods and he takes it in for a touchdown, we aren't having this conversation. With that said, Tyrod can't miss on an overthrow like that.. Woods had his man by almost 5 yards and even an underthrown ball would have probably resulted in a catch or pass interference. Hopefully he makes the adjustment and starts giving his receivers a chance on the deep ball. If those same receivers catch the balls that hit them in the hands or don't trip over their own feet running after the catch, then TT's numbers are close to double what they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 (edited) ... after 5 weeks. http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go Not complaining about recent wins, however the Bills need to get much more out of the pass game (and QB play) than last in the league. (....) QB play and the passing game in general are holding this team back: IMO. Just curious, have you researched the playoff appearances and success of teams with poor passing games but stout defense and rushing? 2012 Vikings (31st passing yards): lost wildcard Seahawks (27th passing yards): lost division 49ers (23rd passing yards): lost Superbowl 2013 49ers (30th in passing yards): lost conference Panthers (29th in passing yards): lost division Seahawks (26th passing yards): won Superbowl Chiefs (24th passing yards): lost wild card 2014 Seahawks (26th passing yards): lost superbowl 2015 Vikings (30th passing yards): lost wildcard Chiefs (29th passing yards): lost division Packers (24th passing yards): lost division Panthers (23th passing yards): lost superbowl The point is that contrary to "common wisdom" and NFL commentator hype, the Cold Hard Football Fact is that in 3 of the last 4 years, 1/4 to 1/3 of the playoff teams have ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league for passing, including teams that have been 29th to 31st and teams that have had considerable success in the playoffs. In fact for some teams, you'll note that it's kind of a theme. Do we need to do better than dead last in passing to have a winning record and go to the playoffs, yes (but not necessarily much better). Do we need our QB to develop and pass better in order to show he is a viable long term solution at QB? yes. Is it the doom-and-gloom can't win unless we're better, No. Passing yards may be (probably is) the least important stat for this team. The important things in terms of the passing game are 3rd down conversions, TD:into ratio and RZ scoring. If those things continue to be strong the Bills will win. If those things slip up the Bills will struggle. This is correct. Third down conversions achieved and given up, TD/Int ratio and overall turnover ratio, and red zone success are all more tightly correlated to winning than passing yardage. This is why many informed Bills fans aren't confident in this team. You can't sustain success in this league without a consistent and effective passing game. Stand and deliver. Prove it. The Vikings, Seahawks, Panthers, and Chiefs called. Other teams that have had some success with this formula include Texans and 49ers (it's the "stout D" part that they've struggled with recently) Edited October 11, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 And the most concerning part is Tyrod looks bad. He's making a couple of nice plays with his legs, but he's regressing in the passing game. Abandoning the pocket too quickly, bad footwork and poor accuracy. Was hoping to see a bit of an improvement in all of those categories over last year, and to my eye they all look worse. I definitely don't feel like the the bolded is the case - seems to me he's been hanging in there, eyes down field looking to make plays on many occasions; felt like he really stood in there in the Rams game. He's always going to be a "get out of the pocket" guy, but even when he does that he's still looking to throw (IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Our QB play has been below average for an NFL starting QB, no question about it. Our WR corps of Woods/Goodwin/Powell is the worst that any NFL team has trotted out in as long as I can remember. As a Whaley supporter, I think not addressing the WR position this offseason has been his biggest mistake yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike22nc Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 The best skill of our current "#1 WR" is his blocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 If those same receivers catch the balls that hit them in the hands or don't trip over their own feet running after the catch, then TT's numbers are close to DOUBLE what they are now. I'm pretty sure you're not a mathmatician Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Fans here want numbers man. Give em stats! Stats win games and are a sustainable winning model of success!! I don't. If Tyrod was throwing for 120 yards cos that is all that was there it would be fine with me. He is leaving plays and points on the field too often for me to consider his start to the season a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YattaOkasan Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I don't. If Tyrod was throwing for 120 yards cos that is all that was there it would be fine with me. He is leaving plays and points on the field too often for me to consider his start to the season a success. He's not leaving a lot of points from what I see (maybe if you consider stalled drives). The team RD% is not bad (9th in TDs). I do think the 3rd down % could be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Yea I mean drives that stall that don't need to. There have been opportunities to hit big plays in games where he has checked down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 At least we also rank 32 in passing attempts per game... We're middle of the road when it comes to completion percentage, TDs, and Sacks. Just a product of our offense I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 At least we also rank 32 in passing attempts per game... We're middle of the road when it comes to completion percentage, TDs, and Sacks. Just a product of our offense I guess. I think this is a crucial point that most critics/TT critics overlook. We simply dont throw much, and Im not sure why anyone is surprised by that. It's exactly what they said they were going to do from day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 I think this is a crucial point that most critics/TT critics overlook. We simply dont throw much, and Im not sure why anyone is surprised by that. It's exactly what they said they were going to do from day 1. We run triple option's at the goalline. We are fairly unconventional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 I think this is a crucial point that most critics/TT critics overlook. We simply dont throw much, and Im not sure why anyone is surprised by that. It's exactly what they said they were going to do from day 1. We threw the ball 40 times against New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samwell Tarly Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 3 wins , 2 losses, thats the rank I pay attention to Just beat the other teams. They don't give any bonus in the standings for style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 1. We are tied for 14th in TD. 2. We are 25th in yards/attempt. 3. We are 21st in completion %. 4. We are tied for 5th for fewest INT 5. We are 9th for red zone scoring (td only) 6. We are 26th in 3rd down conversions. 7. We are 7th in total QBR. We are last in yards bc we have the fewest attempts. Simple math. Room for improvement? Sure. We just changed coordinators and we are down our best WR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 1. We are tied for 14th in TD. 2. We are 25th in yards/attempt. 3. We are 21st in completion %. 4. We are tied for 5th for fewest INT 5. We are 9th for red zone scoring (td only) 6. We are 26th in 3rd down conversions. 7. We are 7th in total QBR. We are last in yards bc we have the fewest attempts. Simple math. Room for improvement? Sure. We just changed coordinators and we are down our best WR. 1. We are tied for 14th in TD. 2. We are 25th in yards/attempt. 3. We are 21st in completion %. 4. We are tied for 5th for fewest INT 5. We are 9th for red zone scoring (td only) 6. We are 26th in 3rd down conversions. 7. We are 7th in total QBR. We are last in yards bc we have the fewest attempts. Simple math. Room for improvement? Sure. We just changed coordinators and we are down our best WR. We need to improve that.....our 3rd down conversions...That sustains drives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 We need to improve that.....our 3rd down conversions...That sustains drives. Yup. Agreed. I wanted to get the stats for 3rd down % converted on passing plays (as opposed to a failed run attempt) and the red zone scoring for passing (as opposed to a rushing td). But i couldnt find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 congrats after observing your constant non stop pounding of other posters. Including myself. Yet literally contributing nothing too the board. You must be taking your new position as DH very seriously. Did you ever figure out how too use ignore. I know you were having problems with it. Cheers boss! Rootavegie posted that nice thread with an obscure stat on Tyrods 1 INT on the road. That was a pretty cool contribution. Lets be kind to each other broskies its hard to be a Bills fan! 1. We are tied for 14th in TD. 2. We are 25th in yards/attempt. 3. We are 21st in completion %. 4. We are tied for 5th for fewest INT 5. We are 9th for red zone scoring (td only) 6. We are 26th in 3rd down conversions. 7. We are 7th in total QBR. We are last in yards bc we have the fewest attempts. Simple math. Room for improvement? Sure. We just changed coordinators and we are down our best WR. Those red zone scoring stats are encouraging along with QBR but that 3rd down conv gotta get leveled up. Still better than 32nd? I think thats where it was with Roman. baby steps I guess thats an 8 spot improvement tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Rootavegie posted that nice thread with an obscure stat on Tyrods 1 INT on the road. That was a pretty cool contribution. Lets be kind to each other broskies its hard to be a Bills fan! Those red zone scoring stats are encouraging along with QBR but that 3rd down conv gotta get leveled up. Still better than 32nd? I think thats where it was with Roman. baby steps I guess thats an 8 spot improvement tho Its a mixed bag really. Some good. Some not so good. Its also just 5 games so far this season. On to SF!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 I think this really just comes down to a couple missed throws. If Tyrod makes the deep throw to Woods and he takes it in for a touchdown, we aren't having this conversation. With that said, Tyrod can't miss on an overthrow like that.. Woods had his man by almost 5 yards and even an underthrown ball would have probably resulted in a catch or pass interference. Hopefully he makes the adjustment and starts giving his receivers a chance on the deep ball. I think it has to do with Tyrod adjusting to Woods speed cuz Sammy or Goodwin woulda had that and took it to the house, it seems he always overthrows Woody. They really need to get on the same page and level up the chemistry This is now the same thread as the other. So I'll repost Some thoughts. It's very hard to know the true TT because we went on a 3 game winning streak as soon as the OC was fired. Hard to make any conclusions with that in the data. However just some general notes He/we have Improved at Turnovers, Red Zone TD %, sacks, QBR. He/we have slightly regressed at completion %, 3rd down %, Passing Yards, Yards per. Considering we have a very weak WR core, and considering that those first two stats (TO, RZ%) are more correlated with success, I am happy with TT. I am slightly concerned with the 3rd down % but I think its related to the WR at the moment (drops and not getting as open). He has definitely missed some opportunities which is slightly concerning. Yards really need not be mentioned with TT. Its opportunities missed (3rd % mostly). Lastly he is soooo cheap this year, but if he continues this trend I pick up the option. I will continue to measure Tyrod by Turnovers, RD %, 3rd %. So far he's 2 for 3. In a run 1st offense, on an offense that ranks 32nd in pass attempts those are some of the only real stats to judge his success by. Nice work. I'm not saying we're on their level but if they can keep holding opposing teams to sub 20 points that is plenty to win in this league. shaq and dareus bring potential pro bowl type talent to an already very good unit...that should be great for the stretch run Defense wins championships. Yeah I know its an old proverb but......anyone watch last years SB? Just curious, have you researched the playoff appearances and success of teams with poor passing games but stout defense and rushing? Nice work here breh! That was a great read and stat look up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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