Optimism - or lack thereof

[That's No Moon]

- I would also like to see a 3rd OT that I am confident....but we are in fact talking about a THIRD OT on a team that led the league in rushing last year.

 

- Spikes wasnt great 2 years ago? I thought what he did (you have to understand he is a 2 down guy) superbly. He was a real beast of a stack and shed run stop linebacker.

 

- When did Rex say that about Zach brown? I dont remember reading that.

 

- Folks need to understand....NOBODY was having any consistant success against the patriots last year.....we need to stop beating up our team when most of the other teams also had the same problems.

 

- Our corners are really good.....better then most of the league....if finding a 3rd corner is our biggest problem there we are in good shape.

 

- Aaron Williams back is a big plus.....Meatball provides leadership......Mario Williams locker room lawyer is gone......Tyrod Taylor looking good

 

There is a lot to like about this team

I'm not sold on Mills at all. Henderson is not going to play and Kuoandijio is a stiff. We have 1 tackle on the roster that I have confidence in.

 

Re: Brown, Rex was quoted the other day in the snooze. "You know, I’d like to see him get a little dirtier on the goal line and stuff like that, but he is a real talented kid." That's a barely veiled calling of someone soft.

 

Aaron Williams is a question mark for the rest of his career and it's very early to take a victory lap on him being "back".

 

Re: corners, we had the same 2 good corners last season. My concerns are about not being better than we were. CB in general is a strength but if your nickel back and safeties are weak and your ILB is Brandon Spikes who cant cover a lawn chair there's not much reason to throw outside.

[eball]

You're right, there are, and typically this is the time of year where I talk myself into believing them I'm having a really hard time getting there and the run of bad luck/stupidity to start the year hasn't helped. Lawson hurt, Other Lawson hurt lifting, Glenn rolled up in a scrimmage, Ragland hurt without contact, Karlos fat, Karlos suspended, Williams DUI. Feels like the other shoe is waiting to drop at any moment.

 

Yep, it's not hard to understand a "here we go again" mentality. There has been good news too, though.

[boyst]

Losing our top two picks for the year won't help optimism.

Losing our top two picks for the year won't help optimism.

[John from Riverside]

I'm not sold on Mills at all. Henderson is not going to play and Kuoandijio is a stiff. We have 1 tackle on the roster that I have confidence in.

 

Re: Brown, Rex was quoted the other day in the snooze. "You know, I’d like to see him get a little dirtier on the goal line and stuff like that, but he is a real talented kid." That's a barely veiled calling of someone soft.

 

Aaron Williams is a question mark for the rest of his career and it's very early to take a victory lap on him being "back".

 

Re: corners, we had the same 2 good corners last season. My concerns are about not being better than we were. CB in general is a strength but if your nickel back and safeties are weak and your ILB is Brandon Spikes who cant cover a lawn chair there's not much reason to throw outside.

There are worse starting RT's in the league then Jordan Mills.....while his pass D is suspect he is a mauler in the run game.

 

You are interpreting what Rex said to his cover linebacker....

 

Its wait and see on Aaron Williams....but we also brought in Robert Blanton who was a starter for another team

 

Lets circle back around to Zach Brown....unless team are throwing on us a bunch on downs 1 and 2....then our cover linebacker will be on the field on 3rd and obvious passing situations....your not gonna see Zach Brown on obvious run situations and goaline?

 

Relax

[Chilly]

 

You do realize how non-specific and absurdly broad that response is, don't you?

 

"If", with absolutely nothing concrete that this the case yet and with an extraordinarily thin line likely being the barrier between a lack of buy-in and buy-in, then a statement about a system that isn't even in place this season as Ryan has stated quite clearly that it will be different (again) this year rendering the boomerang effect on your response, and then "Could" while admitting that the talent is no better and likely worse than it was last season.

 

You essentially just validated OldTimer1960's OP.

 

Why not just say that if flying monkeys come shooting out of Ryan's ass on our season opener than we can expect good things.

 

There are tangible ways the defense can get better this season. Your level of optimism depends on how likely you believe they are to happen.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Chilly

[Virgil]

Scheme and comfortability makes ALL the difference and this team proved it. Look at the drop off from Schwartz to Rex. Same players. It still pisses me off to think about it because did it all in one year because he knew how to adapt.

 

Either way, the talent is there. You can't be all-pro at every position. We have more than enough talent, even with Spikes just being brought in.

 

Now, do I have faith in Rex to capitalize on it.......

[Ronin]

Show me where talent is worse then last season

 

I will wait

 

LMAO

 

Again, it's posts just like that that make this place so amusing.

Your wait is over.

[Perry Turtle]

The 2009 NY Jets didn't need a year to learn Ryan's defense as they were #1 almost right away and they had less talent! The problems for the 2015 Buffalo Bills occurred when you look at the player personnel on the roster for the D-line and the scheme they were being asked to run. You didn't read about any Jets players complaining about how they were being used because they were used to playing in a similar scheme.

 

The Bills prior to 2015 were about the best player prepared 4-3 defense in the league and those Bills D-linemen were among the highest paid players in the league because they rushed the passer so well. There was a direct reason as to why the Bills were first in sacks for two years in different schemes and suddenly went to just about last in sacks! Mike Pettine ran a 3-4 one gap scheme in 2013 and Jim Schwartz ran a wide nine 4-3 scheme in 2014.

 

In comes a 3-4 run stopping two-gap coach in Rex Ryan and everything on that D-line changes. So instead of simply rushing the passer they were being asked to control the gaps. Which means that the D-line players this year had to wait to see what the offensive play was and where it was going before they could react instead of just cutting loose in going after the QB.

 

Switching the defense to a 3-4 and running mostly a two-gap run stopping scheme took its toll on the entire defense because now the DB's are being asked to cover longer because of little or no pass rush. News flash, the team drafted players that fit that 3-4 this past draft so we can all expect more of what we saw last year...only the teams best pass rusher is now a Dolphin. Some fans think that is a good thing, unless of course the dolphins use him as a pass rusher and not a gap control DE who drops into pass coverage.

 

The Bills still don't have the player personnel for the D-line on the roster needed to make that two-gap scheme work. Just so you guys know, it takes stronger, bigger, bulkier players to be able to control the two gaps and also control those huge offensive linemen rather than just trying to slip by them as a pass rusher.

 

 

So many fans simply don't get what i'm talking about here so allow me to perhaps simplify it in a better way.

 

Most NFL defensive lines utilize the one-gap technique. That means each D-lineman is responsible for a gap between two O-linemen and his job is to get in and through that gap and cause havoc in the backfield.

 

The Rex Ryan Bills usually prefer their D-linemen to read and react to the play by controlling the O-lineman in front of them and being responsible for the gap on either side of him. The benefit of this approach is that you keep the play in front of you and you usually free up the LBs to clean up the play by preventing the OLs from getting their hands on the LBs. This isn't to say the Bills never have their DL one gap, but that the more common technique they use is two-gapping.

 

Bottom line here is that unless Rex Ryan stops attepmting to put a square peg into a round hole and utilize the players currently on his roster then the defense won't be better than last year and it may be much worse with only one real pass rusher as the rest are being asked to control their gaps.

This rings true for me. Mario, Dareus and Hughes are best used in the one-gap technique. Mario is gone, but Hughes and Dareus combined for only 7 sacks last season. Will these guys be allowed to use their speed to attack gaps in the offensive line, or will Rex use them to hold up the lineman, hoping that our 2nd and 3rd string linebackers will make plays in the backfield.

 

If Rex continues to use them in the 2 gap technique, I have a feeling that Dareus and Hughes will be the next two 'over-paid' former all-pros that the fans will want run out of town.

[Ronin]

There are tangible ways the defense can get better this season. Your level of optimism depends on how likely you believe they are to happen.

 

The second part of that statement makes a whole lot more sense than the nebulous first part. Why don't you explain those "tangible ways" instead of merely broadly throwing that out there as if you get paid to fill time on TV. Explain what you mean and perhaps the post will mean something.

 

Think about it, anyone can say "if ...", "they could ...", "maybe ..."

 

The question is what's likely to happen. To start I have no idea how you define "tangible [ways]" in this particular context. What do you mean by that? The way players contact one another, or what? What's a "tangible way" a defense can improve with less talent and a coach with absolutely no recent track record of any particular success?

 

There was a dichotomy of thought when Ragland got injured with a whole lot of people claiming that come this morning it would be F5 and all is well, sunshine, rainbows, and lollipops. Those same people made fun of those suggesting that given the actual facts, that that was unlikely to be the case, which of course was the case.

 

It's highly unlikely that this defense improves. There is nothing factual suggesting that it will. The talent is worse, for whatever reason, poor drafting, injuries, a bad medical/conditioning staff, ... doesn't really matter, the talent is less than last year to open the season anyway and for a while beyond that.

 

Ryan doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt, none whatsoever. Anyone giving him one is a fool.

 

I fully agree with you that one's optimism determines how likely one is to believe that they will happen. But this isn't Oprah, this isn't you can believe anything you want and do/be whatever you want. It's football in the National Football League and there is history, patterns, data, medical info, and other facts, etc. for people to develop informed opinions on, not blue skies and sunshine hopes predicated that are primarily contrary to those things and the actual facts outlining them.

 

I'm sure that somewhere, probably a bunch here, that actually believe that this team is currently in a position to win the division and challenge in the playoffs, but the reality, meaning that what the history, patterns, data, medical info, and other facts suggest is that we'll be lucky to be 8-8 again this season. Lucky, meaning it's going to take some luck.

 

Moreover, I don't see too many teams on our schedule that we overmatch right now.

[jimmy10]

The 2009 NY Jets didn't need a year to learn Ryan's defense as they were #1 almost right away and they had less talent! The problems for the 2015 Buffalo Bills occurred when you look at the player personnel on the roster for the D-line and the scheme they were being asked to run. You didn't read about any Jets players complaining about how they were being used because they were used to playing in a similar scheme.

 

The Bills prior to 2015 were about the best player prepared 4-3 defense in the league and those Bills D-linemen were among the highest paid players in the league because they rushed the passer so well. There was a direct reason as to why the Bills were first in sacks for two years in different schemes and suddenly went to just about last in sacks! Mike Pettine ran a 3-4 one gap scheme in 2013 and Jim Schwartz ran a wide nine 4-3 scheme in 2014.

 

In comes a 3-4 run stopping two-gap coach in Rex Ryan and everything on that D-line changes. So instead of simply rushing the passer they were being asked to control the gaps. Which means that the D-line players this year had to wait to see what the offensive play was and where it was going before they could react instead of just cutting loose in going after the QB.

 

Switching the defense to a 3-4 and running mostly a two-gap run stopping scheme took its toll on the entire defense because now the DB's are being asked to cover longer because of little or no pass rush. News flash, the team drafted players that fit that 3-4 this past draft so we can all expect more of what we saw last year...only the teams best pass rusher is now a Dolphin. Some fans think that is a good thing, unless of course the dolphins use him as a pass rusher and not a gap control DE who drops into pass coverage.

 

The Bills still don't have the player personnel for the D-line on the roster needed to make that two-gap scheme work. Just so you guys know, it takes stronger, bigger, bulkier players to be able to control the two gaps and also control those huge offensive linemen rather than just trying to slip by them as a pass rusher.

 

 

So many fans simply don't get what i'm talking about here so allow me to perhaps simplify it in a better way.

 

Most NFL defensive lines utilize the one-gap technique. That means each D-lineman is responsible for a gap between two O-linemen and his job is to get in and through that gap and cause havoc in the backfield.

 

The Rex Ryan Bills usually prefer their D-linemen to read and react to the play by controlling the O-lineman in front of them and being responsible for the gap on either side of him. The benefit of this approach is that you keep the play in front of you and you usually free up the LBs to clean up the play by preventing the OLs from getting their hands on the LBs. This isn't to say the Bills never have their DL one gap, but that the more common technique they use is two-gapping.

 

 

 

Bottom line here is that unless Rex Ryan stops attepmting to put a square peg into a round hole and utilize the players currently on his roster then the defense won't be better than last year and it may be much worse with only one real pass rusher as the rest are being asked to control their gaps.

Just one point about your premise and opening line (can't edit down the quote easily on mobile): Rex brought a number of vets with him from the Ravens to the Jets, easing that transition.

[billsfan89]

I am pessimistic about the defense. Ragland's and Lawson's injuries along with the aging and recent injuries to Kyle Williams as well as the injury concerns about Aaron Williams are not good signs (Although I do like the Brandon Spikes signing). Offensively a lot rests on Sammy the Bills defense won't be great in my opinion but it could be a decent group so offensively the Bills will need to be a top 10 unit.

 

Tyrod's development and Sammy's health are the key factors. If Sammy is injured long term then the offense won't have the room to operate and even if Tyrod is the real deal he won't have the weapons. But if Sammy is healthy then the offense will depend on how good Tyrod can be. If Tyrod is a legit top 10 QB then the offense which with Sammy has enough talent to give Tyrod the tools can be a top 10 unit. If the Bills defense can be in the 14-18 range or better and Tyrod is the real deal with a healthy Sammy, consider the playoffs likely.

 

But I think that the defense will be a lot like last seasons and I am not sure Tyrod is good enough to carry an offense (And there is the ticking time bomb of Sammy). I hope I am wrong but I see this as being another 7-9 season.

[ndirish1978]

I'm ok with us on offense. Worried about ROLB, MILB, SS. Too many things up in the air on D for anyone to feel optimistic IMO.

[3rdand12]

 

Famous last words.

no sht.

I am not overly concerned.

 

Foe one thing, i cannot control the matter.

The other is

Its just a game, and for Fans, it should be just for fun?

So I always remain optimistic. But it is rather tempered by reality as Bills fan. Kind of a good life lesson when you consider it.

 

We are probably going to run into and overwhelming amount of adversity. So whatcha gonna do?

sit on your hands? B word and moan? Deceive oneself into some form of blinders to the affect of really thinking this is the year?

 

Lots of places to reside in the Bills Fans spectrum. and that makes us interesting Folks to say the least. Funny things happen to people who get hit with stick each year.

 

So my simple answer is

 

[....lybob]

I guess every team gets socked with injuries but the Bills seem to get more than their fair share - about ten of these 16 drought years I've looked at the team just before camp and figured out how they could be a playoff team but soon (sometimes before the regular season starts) they get so depleted you wonder how they'll win a game the rest of the year- still as long as they are competitive and somewhat entertaining I'll watch and maybe go to a game or two.

[Nihilarian]

Just one point about your premise and opening line (can't edit down the quote easily on mobile): Rex brought a number of vets with him from the Ravens to the Jets, easing that transition.

I made this point in a different thread but when Ryan took over the Jets in 2009 he was following Eric Mangini who was a Bill Belichick disciple who at that period in time liked to run a two-gap 3-4. Hence the reason I stated the Jets D-line players were used to playing in a similar scheme.

 

My take away from the most profound difference between the 2014 Bills defense and the 2015 defense was the latter's lack of QB pressures and sacks. Which were the lowest in the 50 plus year franchise history at only 22 and only a strike shortened season saw less.

 

Rex Ryan made the excuse that his players weren't buying into his scheme and it was because it was overly complicated. My take on that is that it was just another one of his BS excuses which he spouted a new one almost every week last season. These are highly paid professional players and as much as Ryan likes to brag about how big his playbook is, it is dwarfed by Greg Roman's offensive playbook. In all honesty, the defense has it far easier to get accustomed to the nomenclature and play calls, signals, player substitutions than the offense. No defense in this universe is so complicated that the players can't fathom it past training camp.

 

Like I said, the real problem was the scheme that was being run didn't suit the players on the roster and so much so that they went to the media to complain about it. Any person that watches football should be able to comprehend the difference between actually rushing the passer and being asked to wait for the play to develop and then read and react to it, to understand that the latter is what destroyed last years pass rush. Little or no pressure on opposing QB's is what caused the majority of the problems with last years defense. Not just an opinion, it's a fact!

[3rdand12]

I made this point in a different thread but when Ryan took over the Jets in 2009 he was following Eric Mangini who was a Bill Belichick disciple who at that period in time liked to run a two-gap 3-4. Hence the reason I stated the Jets D-line players were used to playing in a similar scheme.

 

My take away from the most profound difference between the 2014 Bills defense and the 2015 defense was the latter's lack of QB pressures and sacks. Which were the lowest in the 50 plus year franchise history at only 22 and only a strike shortened season saw less.

 

Rex Ryan made the excuse that his players weren't buying into his scheme and it was because it was overly complicated. My take on that is that it was just another one of his BS excuses which he spouted a new one almost every week last season. These are highly paid professional players and as much as Ryan likes to brag about how big his playbook is, it is dwarfed by Greg Roman's offensive playbook. In all honesty, the defense has it far easier to get accustomed to the nomenclature and play calls, signals, player substitutions than the offense. No defense in this universe is so complicated that the players can't fathom it past training camp.

 

Like I said, the real problem was the scheme that was being run didn't suit the players on the roster and so much so that they went to the media to complain about it. Any person that watches football should be able to comprehend the difference between actually rushing the passer and being asked to wait for the play to develop and then read and react to it, to understand that the latter is what destroyed last years pass rush. Little or no pressure on opposing QB's is what caused the majority of the problems with last years defense. Not just an opinion, it's a fact!

Rex NEVER said that players were not buying into his scheme. not once and not at all. You are contorting his words about how he failed and communication and not responding well. The man has owned up to his mistakes. and there were plenty !

He tried to play a coverage game against Brady as none gets to the QB in 1.6 seconds The players and the Coaches failed.

[jahnyc]

Not sure what to make of this team. The Bills have a lot of holes on offense and defense, but they also have some very good players. On offense, the WRs are weak after Sammy and the right side of the o-line is probably one of the worst in the NFL. At TE, there is not an adequate number two or three after Clay. On defense, our linebackers are very weak, and I am not sure who is replacing Mario. Overall, there is little depth on the team.

 

On the positive side, we have some very good players. Sammy, McCoy, Clay (fragile), Glenn, and Incognito are all very strong players. Hopefully, Taylor will continue to improve. I also have confidence in Roman to improve the offense. On defense, Gilmore and Dareus should be stars this year if they can stay healthy. Same with A. Williams. Darby was great last year and hopefully that will continue this season. I hope Hughes has a better season and K. Williams is healthy.

 

A real mixed bag, but probably not enough to get us to the playoffs this year.

Edited August 8, 2016 by jahnyc

[Nihilarian]

Rex NEVER said that players were not buying into his scheme. not once and not at all. You are contorting his words about how he failed and communication and not responding well. The man has owned up to his mistakes. and there were plenty !

He tried to play a coverage game against Brady as none gets to the QB in 1.6 seconds The players and the Coaches failed.

 

https://twitter.com/JoeBuscaglia/status/661944759469084672/video/1

 

&

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/bills-news-notes/2015/11/6/9674032/rex-ryan-buffalo-bills-defense-still-not-seeing-eye-to-eye

 

 

"Ryan is blaming the players, but the Bills players still think (hope?) he's going to change the scheme."

Edited August 8, 2016 by Nihilarian

[3rdand12]

i just glanced. Did Rex say that " Rex Ryan made the excuse that his players weren't buying into his scheme "

[Nihilarian]

i just glanced. Did Rex say that " Rex Ryan made the excuse that his players weren't buying into his scheme "

This better?

"Ryan also admitted that not all of his players have bought in to what he's selling.

"I think it's safe to say that not all of them have," Ryan said. "I think that's safe to say that. But I think there's a number of them that have."

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2015/12/rex_tk.html