NFL future power rankings: projecting the next 3 seasons

[26CornerBlitz]

Field Yates: "This is a talented roster" (17:43)

ESPN NFL Reporter Field Yates joined The John Murphy Show to discuss the annual ‘NFL Future Power Rankings’ which projects each team’s success over the next three seasons. Yates includes his take on the state of the Buffalo Bills.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

This.

 

Every single word of this. I couldnt even figure out what to highlight, because its all spot-on.

 

Draft position be damned. Get ur shtt together. Starting at QB and coaching, not necessarily in that order.

 

In a brief moment of clarity Ralph made a big move for Chuck Knox.....who turned the moribund franchise around........but Ralph meddled and ran him off........then steered clear of proven HC's again until a last gasp effort THIRTY YEARS later to hire Mike Shanahan after he'd long since made himself toxic as an employer.

 

That weakness in identifying quality coaching as an indispensible component of team building was very difficult to overcome and a key reason why Bills attempts at re-builds post Kelly/Thurman/Bruce era seem to require a VERY long time.......dog years......... while teams like I mentioned flipped much of their rosters over in a couple years on their way back to contention.

[BADOLBILZ]

That's kind of the point. Cam and Luck went 1 overall. The following QBs weren't available when the Bills selected (Eli, Wentz, Goff, Alex Smith, Palmer, Gabbert, Ryan, Rivers, Sanchez, Bortles, Tannehill, Ben, Cutler, Cam, Luck, Jameis, Mariota, RG3, Stafford, and Rodgers). Now some of these guys came available and others you wouldn't want. 20 of the starting 32 QBs you didn't have a chance at. If you were to look at a team that's been perennially bad, like the Browns, that number is much smaller. If you are picking early, as I said, you increase your chances of finding the franchise QB.

 

Drafting a QB in the top 5 is not how most of the league's better teams were built.

 

For all the luck of the Indy Colts they've won exactly ONE super bowl during nearly two decades of Manning and Luck.

 

The teams I mentioned have won ten of the past 16. And they aren't alone.....Ravens.....Tampa....Saints........heck almost ALL of the SB's since the Bills last made the playoffs were won by teams that did it without picking their QB from a top 5 type draft position.

 

The outliers are actually Peyton and Eli..........and many people consider Eli luckier than good........so it's not like bottoming out has been THAT successful of a team building approach.

 

As always, I am drafting a QB first. As I've said many times, if they just stayed put and drafted the QB that eventually went next they'd have come home with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco.

 

They've missed on many other good/great ones........and it's not all bad luck......they really never were QB-centric under RW and they subsequently missed 100% of the shots they did not take, so to speak.

 

One of the reasons I liked the Cardale Jones pick is because that was very likely not a pick that a RW-lead franchise.......with it's standard retread, virtually success-free HC's job hanging in the balance............would have made.

 

You need to be disciplined and persistent when it comes to getting the QB and coaching that you need.

 

Those characteristics are not things that would be attributed to the 2000's Bills organization unless maybe the subject was Jeffery Littman's handling of the finances.

[machine gun kelly]

Meaningless article. They have absolutely no way of predicting future success. That is three years of drafts not counting, free agency, injuries, development of TT, etc.

 

I'm not even goin to read this thing. I'll give you just one example. Not that I want this to happen, but someone comes in low and blows out Brady's knee and he needs to retire. Are the Patriots 12-4 with Garroppolo?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Drafting a QB in the top 5 is not how most of the league's better teams were built.

 

For all the luck of the Indy Colts they've won exactly ONE super bowl during nearly two decades of Manning and Luck.

 

The teams I mentioned have won ten of the past 16. And they aren't alone.....Ravens.....Tampa....Saints........heck almost ALL of the SB's since the Bills last made the playoffs were won by teams that did it without picking their QB from a top 5 type draft position.

 

The outliers are actually Peyton and Eli..........and many people consider Eli luckier than good........so it's not like bottoming out has been THAT successful of a team building approach.

 

As always, I am drafting a QB first. As I've said many times, if they just stayed put and drafted the QB that eventually went next they'd have come home with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco.

 

They've missed on many other good/great ones........and it's not all bad luck......they really never were QB-centric under RW and they subsequently missed 100% of the shots they did not take, so to speak.

 

One of the reasons I liked the Cardale Jones pick is because that was very likely not a pick that a RW-lead franchise.......with it's standard retread, virtually success-free HC's job hanging in the balance............would have made.

 

You need to be disciplined and persistent when it comes to getting the QB and coaching that you need.

 

Those characteristics are not things that would be attributed to the 2000's Bills organization unless maybe the subject was Jeffery Littman's handling of the finances.

I don't necessarily disagree. All that I was saying is that if you are always in the top 5 you are increasing your chances. The Browns and Jags come to mind.

 

I agree on Cardale as well. He is a little while from playing but has a very high ceiling. It was a chance worth taking.

[May Day 10]

I really cant fault anyone, especially on the outside for thinking this...

 

 

You look at the Ryan brothers... and you are conditioned into expecting things to not work out for the Bills.... it is easy to imagine the crashing and burning to be spectacular over the next 2 seasons.

[kdub]

 

Two of 'em I got here. I have no idea where they are in the forum. Go find 'em. One was done by either Football Outsiders or PFW IIRC. You talk as if you're already aware of them, perhaps some homework besides just biased opinions without any facts whatsoever to sustain them might be a good idea to include instead of challenging me like this.

 

Seriously tho, you can't look at our drafts since 2010 and figure out for yourself that perhaps they haven't been even average?

 

Really? I mean really? I've already pointed out at least twice in this brief thread that for four 1st-rounders we have a bust, an injured rookie with no indications as to how good he'll actually be otherwise, and an injury-prone WR with unresolved issues, his biggest to date, heading into the preseason. Does this strike you as anything but in the lower end of how other teams drafted from 2012 thru 2015 using their four 1st-rounders, at least for teams that had all four?

 

Hell, our 2nd rounders have been better, I've also pointed out how we've gotten almost nothing from our 3rds and later since 2010 when Whaley arrived to head up the Pro Personnel Dept.

 

This is a waste of time. Go do some research, get your facts lined up, and then PM me and I'll meet you back here to discuss.

 

Far too many people can't seem to distinguish between facts and opinions.

 

Wow man, defensive just a little bit? I was asking for sources, not insulting you mother.

 

Further, I was not challenging you, I was asking for sources so that I could see what you were basing your argument on. I was not arguing the opposite, though apparently you took it that way.

 

Since you won't (or can't) produce your sources that you claim exist AND are trying to use them to support your argument AND are attacking me for asking, I'll assume that you are basing your facts on nothing, and therefore will be ignoring you.

Links to disprove it?

 

That's not how making an argument works. You are supposed to back up your stance with facts and references. Making a statement and then daring someone to disprove it is generally a strategy of someone who doesn't have a leg to stand on.

 

Further, I wasn't making an argument for or against if Whaley has been successful drafting. I welcome references that support either, that is what I call being "informed".

Bills have been one of the best drafting teams the last 5 or so years. Previously they were terrible.

http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exhaustive-ranking-of-every-nfl-teams-draft-haul-since-2010/

 

Another study, years 2009-2013 has the Bills 10th.

http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-best-teams-seattle-seahawks-san-francisco-49ers-tennessee-titans-new-england-patriots/

 

Yay, an argument with supporting references!

Edited July 13, 2016 by kdub

[Beerball]

Why are the Bills always 28th in these jackass rankings?

In honor of CJ.

[NoSaint]

This. They aren't projecting them to be the same as they've been for the past decade, which is average to just below average. They are projecting them to take a huge step back.

maybe.

 

but if they continue business as usual with 5 years without playoffs, that would likely put them towards the bottom of the barrel still, even if hovering in the 6 to 9 win range most of the time. there are only 8 teams with streaks of more than 5 years right now.

 

and that would come with blowing up the coaching staff, and tyrod not being the guy.

 

theres some degree of needing to take a step forward or a step back will happen.

Edited July 13, 2016 by NoSaint

[Nihilarian]

maybe.

 

but if they continue business as usual with 5 years without playoffs, that would likely put them towards the bottom of the barrel still, even if hovering in the 6 to 9 win range most of the time. there are only 8 teams with streaks of more than 5 years right now.

 

and that would come with blowing up the coaching staff, and tyrod not being the guy.

 

theres some degree of needing to take a step forward or a step back will happen.

Good lord I hope changes will be made far sooner than five years down the road. This team had enough talent to make the playoffs last year and should be in contention this year despite what the jackasses in the media think.

[NoSaint]

Good lord I hope changes will be made far sooner than five years down the road. This team had enough talent to make the playoffs last year and should be in contention this year despite what the jackasses in the media think.

and ill admit, i thought the article was 5, not 3.

 

even at 3 -- if in a year (or two) we end up firing rex, then spend a year restocking talent, its not a stretch that we are low on the list for the next 3- even if not the WORST any single year.

[YattaOkasan]

Didnt see it posted but buffalo rumblings has the breakdown.

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/7/13/12167584/buffalo-bills-future-looks-subpar-according-to-espn

 

I think the most confusing part is the roster is good but the FO is bad? That seems like a bit of cognitive dissonance.

 

Also sammy is good.

Edited July 13, 2016 by YattaOkasan

[DrDawkinstein]

 

We had Polian then. Now we have Whaley.

 

Whaley's last four 1st-round draft picks (and a 4th) were Manuel a bust, Watkins, grossly underachieving for several reasons and as injury-prone as they come and flirting with not even having the team exercise his 5th year option, and now an injured rookie Lawson whose biggest scout was one of his teammates at Clemson, not even someone on our staff.

 

There is a difference there. Whaley might be suited to get coffee for Polian and his staff, ... might be.

 

Polian knew how to put together a team, Whaley's still lucky to have a job in a high-level capacity in a front office much less as a GM.

 

Polian's first 4 1st-round picks:

Ronnie Harmon

Shane Conlan

No first rd pick

No first rd pick

 

Those drafts were also 12 rounds long (where a good number of our starters came from the late rounds), and only had 28 teams picking.

 

There also wasnt any salary cap to worry about either.

 

Remind me again how well the Colts drafted his last 5 years there during this modern era? Choosing 1st round guys (busts) like RB Donald Brown, WR Anthony Gonzalez, and CB Marlin Jackson. Real bang up job setting that team up perfectly to have the worst record in the league so they can once again grab the top QB prospect of his generation and fallback on that to mask their short-comings.

[Nihilarian]

and ill admit, i thought the article was 5, not 3.

 

even at 3 -- if in a year (or two) we end up firing rex, then spend a year restocking talent, its not a stretch that we are low on the list for the next 3- even if not the WORST any single year.

The thing is most fans noticed the difference in coaching between Mike Pettine, Jim Schwartz, and George Edwards, Dave Wannstedt and most everything bad that happened last season aside from the injuries is correctable. Clearly, the media dorks don't think the problems with last years team can be fixed by Ryan and his coaching staff and a lot of Bills fans seem to think those problems can be corrected.

 

Just look at the difference between Schwartz and Wannstedt who both utilized 4-3 schemes and both mostly used just the front four to rush the passer. However, Schwartz used a better rotation system to keep his D-linemen fresh and he also had Jerry Hughes. Still, the difference in sacks 36 to 54 and being #4 overall to #26 in points- 24th in yards and Wannstedt allowed a league-worst rushing TD's. Kind of startling to look at the difference in only a few players and yet so much better results.

 

Should Ryan not get the problems corrected this season then I can see changes being made rather quickly. Finding a winner head coach will come down to someone other than the owner being nudged by the current team president making the call.

[BuffaloBill]

Hard to give any weight to the idea that anyone can look ahead three years in the NFL.

[Gugny]

Polian's first 4 1st-round picks:

Ronnie Harmon

Shane Conlan

No first rd pick

No first rd pick

 

Those drafts were also 12 rounds long (where a good number of our starters came from the late rounds), and only had 28 teams picking.

 

There also wasnt any salary cap to worry about either.

 

Remind me again how well the Colts drafted his last 5 years there during this modern era? Choosing 1st round guys (busts) like RB Donald Brown, WR Anthony Gonzalez, and CB Marlin Jackson. Real bang up job setting that team up perfectly to have the worst record in the league so they can once again grab the top QB prospect of his generation and fallback on that to mask their short-comings.

Yes, Dr. D.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Polian's first 4 1st-round picks:

Ronnie Harmon

Shane Conlan

No first rd pick

No first rd pick

 

Those drafts were also 12 rounds long (where a good number of our starters came from the late rounds), and only had 28 teams picking.

 

There also wasnt any salary cap to worry about either.

 

Remind me again how well the Colts drafted his last 5 years there during this modern era? Choosing 1st round guys (busts) like RB Donald Brown, WR Anthony Gonzalez, and CB Marlin Jackson. Real bang up job setting that team up perfectly to have the worst record in the league so they can once again grab the top QB prospect of his generation and fallback on that to mask their short-comings.

 

 

IMO, Polian was very overrated.

 

His greatest trait was his decisiveness.

 

When he wanted coaches or players he didn't dawdle........he went after it.

 

But if SOMEONE ELSE told him he needed to make a change........he'd cut off his nose to spite his face before he would be told he had made a mistake that he needed to fix.

 

IMO he is proof positive that more is lost from indecision than wrong decision but he got progressively worse as a personnel man and his stubbornness likely cost him a few rings.