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Stephon Gilmore: "I Know I’m an Elite Corner."


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Darren Woodson: Gilmore is a top 6 corner

 

Gilmore plays a premium position in today's pass-happy NFL cover corners are rare. So the question is, do the Bills pay him like an elite cornerback? One of the greats believes so because he sees Deion-like traits in Gilmore. Five-time Pro Bowler Darren Woodson views Gilmore as at least a top 6 cornerback who is absolutely in the upper echelon.

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2016/01/20/darren-woodson-sees-some-deion-in-stephon-gilmore/
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Why would anyone think there would be a discount?

well, that's why you sign him now, and I'm sure that is exactly what they are trying to do.. injuries can happen, players know that. this guy will see his second contract so he should sign 4 years now and then get another 3 or 4 years from now.. a lot depends on who his agent is... I say draft a corner in the 3rd or 4th round, let next season play out and see where we are at that time. replacing Cordy Glenn and Incognito in a run heavy offense with unknown quantity at QB is more important than replacing a corner in a gimmick defense. in the nfl you need offense to win playoff games. I say spend the dough on offense first.

 

Rex's defense forces the ball out really fast, the corners don't have to be elite, just stick to your guy for 2.5 seconds then look for the ball.... not saying thats simple, but it is more straightforward. the safeties and LBs need to communicate like crazy, etc etc, but I believe the corners largely just need to stick to their guy for 2.5sec and their job is pretty much done. Since the NFL has twisted the rules to favor passing and screw defenses, I like Rex defense concept of pressure, pressure and confusion.. that's all the rules guys haven't outlawed (Yet) . Watch 'em force defenses to rush only 4 guys someday.. don't laugh

Edited by 8and8-->NoMore
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well, that's why you sign him now, and I'm sure that is exactly what they are trying to do.. injuries can happen, players know that. this guy will see his second contract so he should sign 4 years now and then get another 3 or 4 years from now.. a lot depends on who his agent is... I say draft a corner in the 3rd or 4th round, let next season play out and see where we are at that time. replacing Cordy Glenn and Incognito in a run heavy offense with unknown quantity at QB is more important than replacing a corner in a gimmick defense. in the nfl you need offense to win playoff games. I say spend the dough on offense first.

 

Rex's defense forces the ball out really fast, the corners don't have to be elite, just stick to your guy for 2.5 seconds then look for the ball.... not saying thats simple, but it is more straightforward. the safeties and LBs need to communicate like crazy, etc etc, but I believe the corners largely just need to stick to their guy for 2.5sec and their job is pretty much done. Since the NFL has twisted the rules to favor passing and screw defenses, I like Rex defense concept of pressure, pressure and confusion.. that's all the rules guys haven't outlawed (Yet) . Watch 'em force defenses to rush only 4 guys someday.. don't laugh

 

If Rex's defense forces the ball out quickly, wouldn't you want the best CBs possible? That pressure is a direct result of sending LBs and others from the secondary. This is why CB is arguably the most important position in Rex's D. And considering we got little to no rush this past season, it's each to see why Gilmore and Darby are so essential to any future success moving forward.

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If Rex's defense forces the ball out quickly, wouldn't you want the best CBs possible? That pressure is a direct result of sending LBs and others from the secondary. This is why CB is arguably the most important position in Rex's D. And considering we got little to no rush this past season, it's each to see why Gilmore and Darby are so essential to any future success moving forward.

Its all about priorities. If you lose a corner, all is not lost. If your O Line is weak or thin and then gets hit by injuries, your season is over unless you have a top 5 QB, and we don't have one of those .

 

I guess you try to get Gilmore signed, but maybe need to wait until a year from now.. get the UFA O-Line signed + Bradham... cut Mario. Go from there.

Edited by 8and8-->NoMore
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Its all about priorities. If you lose a corner, all is not lost. If your O Line is weak or thin and then gets hit by injuries, your season is over unless you have a top 5 QB, and we don't have one of those .

 

I guess you try to get Gilmore signed, but maybe need to wait until a year from now.. get the UFA O-Line signed + Bradham... cut Mario. Go from there.

This theory has hardly borne itself out in recent memory.

 

Seattle, for example, is a perennial contender in part because of their CB play--they don't have a top 5 QB and their OL is atrocious.

 

Denver is another example from this very season.

 

CB is a more premium position than OL now. The only way to circumvent that need is to have a spectacular pass rush.

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Gilmore is a a really good CB, but I wouldn't put him in elite status as say a Sherman or Peterson or Chris Harrris or Talib. Top 15 probably. Darby will end up being better than Gilmore.

Darby slipped a little bit in the last 5 or 6 games this season, but I think he is already the best corner on this team. Gilmore has shown great improvement over the years, and he has good size, but one on one, I'd rather have Darby on the other teams best WR. I like Gilmore a lot, but I wouldn't put him in the elite category, whatever that is. I certainly hope they re-sign him, but how often does any corner live up to what their salary suggests, when they sign insane deals?

Edited by Buftex
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Darby slipped a little bit in the last 5 or 6 games this season, but I think he is already the best corner on this team. Gilmore has shown great improvement over the years, and he has good size, but one on one, I'd rather have Darby on the other teams best WR. I like Gilmore a lot, but I wouldn't put him in the elite category, whatever that is. I certainly hope they re-sign him, but how often does any corner live up to what their salary suggests, when they sign insane deals?

 

The best way to approach Gilmore's extension (imo) would be to remember Darby's on a very cheap rookie deal for 3 more seasons. Extend Gilmore through 2019, that'll lower his cap number in '16 (which will be helpful) and structure the deal so they can walk away from Gilmore when Darby's extension is due if they need to. Basically end up getting two top CBs for one price that way.

 

It would be a mistake to wait until next off season to resign Gilmore, or to let him walk.

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The best way to approach Gilmore's extension (imo) would be to remember Darby's on a very cheap rookie deal for 3 more seasons. Extend Gilmore through 2019, that'll lower his cap number in '16 (which will be helpful) and structure the deal so they can walk away from Gilmore when Darby's extension is due if they need to. Basically end up getting two top CBs for one price that way.

 

It would be a mistake to wait until next off season to resign Gilmore, or to let him walk.

 

I don't think you're going to get Gilmore to sign a 3-year deal unless it's fully guaranteed.

 

He and his agent would be crazy to take less guaranteed money or annual average compensation than Byron Maxwell, who got $10.25M/year average and $25M guaranteed. So a 3-year deal would need to be something like $35M fully-guaranteed. The cap ramifications of that would be brutal.

 

I think it's more likely he gets something like 5 years, $57.5M ($11.5M average annual compensation) with $30M guaranteed. You can structure the base salaries for the first 3 years at:

 

2016 - $2M

2017 - $3M

2018 - $5M

2019 - $8M

2020 - $9.5M

 

Cap hits would be:

 

2016 - $8M

2017 - $9M

2018 - $11M

2019 - $14M

2020 - $15.5M

 

That way, his cap number doesn't get back to $11M until 2018, and by 2019 you can get out of it and save money if you have to account for a mega-deal for Darby. You can do that because Darby doesn't have a 5th-year option, so he'd likely get an extension that tacks on years after 2018--you wouldn't be carrying both contracts at once.

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CB is a more premium position than OL now.

Not really.

 

Since 2010, here are some stats:

 

First Round Defensive Backs (both corner and safety) - 36

Top 10 draft picks Defensive Backs - 8

 

First Round Offensive Linemen ( all 3 positions)

 

First Round Offensive Linemen - 39

Top 10 draft picks Offensive Linemen - 13

 

The earliest drafted DBs (2) both went at #5 (2010 & 2011)

There were 6 Offensive Linemen drafted in the top 5.

 

It is still harder to find top quality blockers than defensive backs imo. I think that Darby goes a long way to prove this. There are just not many 325 humans who run 5 second 40s, are agile, and bench 225 30 or so times.

As for Gilmore, I think the debate is really about salary. If it was my money, I would not pay him 13 - 15 million per season. I just wouldn't do it.

 

Btw, I do agree with you that since the rule changes, corners are becoming more important. But without pass rush, even the best corners will give up completions.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/t

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/g

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/c

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/db

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Gilmore " Im an elite corner "

 

Backseat General Manager " Please play a full season, please get more than 3 interceptions per year, please stop taking dumb holding penalties, please cut your hair "

 

Gilmore " Ok, Ill take 7-8 million per year "

 

Backseat GM: " Thanks Gilmore, you truly are a team player and an above average corner, but not elite "

 

GIlmore " I know, I tried to pull the wool over your eyes like the Ryan brothers "

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Not really.

 

Since 2010, here are some stats:

 

First Round Defensive Backs (both corner and safety) - 36

Top 10 draft picks Defensive Backs - 8

 

First Round Offensive Linemen ( all 3 positions)

 

First Round Offensive Linemen - 39

Top 10 draft picks Offensive Linemen - 13

 

The earliest drafted DBs (2) both went at #5 (2010 & 2011)

There were 6 Offensive Linemen drafted in the top 5.

 

It is still harder to find top quality blockers than defensive backs imo. I think that Darby goes a long way to prove this. There are just not many 325 humans who run 5 second 40s, are agile, and bench 225 30 or so times.

As for Gilmore, I think the debate is really about salary. If it was my money, I would not pay him 13 - 15 million per season. I just wouldn't do it.

 

Btw, I do agree with you that since the rule changes, corners are becoming more important. But without pass rush, even the best corners will give up completions.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/t

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/g

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/c

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/db

 

Nice to hear from you.

 

The simple fact that teams have to put 5 OL on the field, but typically play with only 3 CBs at a time, is more reflective in the draft numbers than importance IMO.

 

For importance (or maybe value is a better term for what I'm trying to convey), I just look at salaries...the money follows the importance IMO (as we see with premium QBs making over $20M/year in average compensation). We're in a day and age where the top 3 CB salaries in the NFL all eclipse that of the top NFL LT (in annual average).

 

The top paid LT, Trent Williams, is making nearly the same as the 4th-highest paid CB, Joe Haden.

 

In reality, QBs are in a class by themselves in terms of value. Behind them, CB, OT, and Edge defender seem to be the 3 premium values. I think OTs are important, and I think both Glenn and Gilmore need to be paid. I don't think they have to choose between them, so I'm not going to worry about that.

Gilmore " Im an elite corner "

 

Backseat General Manager " Please play a full season, please get more than 3 interceptions per year, please stop taking dumb holding penalties, please cut your hair "

 

Gilmore " Ok, Ill take 7-8 million per year "

 

Backseat GM: " Thanks Gilmore, you truly are a team player and an above average corner, but not elite "

 

GIlmore " I know, I tried to pull the wool over your eyes like the Ryan brothers "

 

Real NFL GM: "Well, you're definitely better than Byron Maxwell, so asking you to take less than $10.25M/year would be criminally stupid of someone in my position"

 

:lol:

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One of two things will happen:

  • The Bills won't meet his high market value because they have other higher priority needs to allocate cash to
  • Or, the CB stock market will crash; Gilmore can't get the big deal and stays in Bflo for a more rationale contract

It will be the first one. He's gone next year. And the Bills will live.


Pay the man this year. Its only money and its not even my money.

I think this is sarcasm. But just in case it's not: It's not about whose money it is. It's about spreading your salary cap around in a multi-year plan so as to not screw yourself.

Edited by boater
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I don't think you're going to get Gilmore to sign a 3-year deal unless it's fully guaranteed.

 

He and his agent would be crazy to take less guaranteed money or annual average compensation than Byron Maxwell, who got $10.25M/year average and $25M guaranteed. So a 3-year deal would need to be something like $35M fully-guaranteed. The cap ramifications of that would be brutal.

 

I think it's more likely he gets something like 5 years, $57.5M ($11.5M average annual compensation) with $30M guaranteed. You can structure the base salaries for the first 3 years at:

 

2016 - $2M

2017 - $3M

2018 - $5M

2019 - $8M

2020 - $9.5M

 

Cap hits would be:

 

2016 - $8M

2017 - $9M

2018 - $11M

2019 - $14M

2020 - $15.5M

 

That way, his cap number doesn't get back to $11M until 2018, and by 2019 you can get out of it and save money if you have to account for a mega-deal for Darby. You can do that because Darby doesn't have a 5th-year option, so he'd likely get an extension that tacks on years after 2018--you wouldn't be carrying both contracts at once.

For clarity sake, I didn't mean sign him to just a three year deal, you extend him now and structure the deal so that after three years (when Darby's due for his extension) you can cut or move on from Gilmore without crippling your cap.

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For clarity sake, I didn't mean sign him to just a three year deal, you extend him now and structure the deal so that after three years (when Darby's due for his extension) you can cut or move on from Gilmore without crippling your cap.

 

Oh...wow...yeah...so you basically were saying exactly what I just rambled on about.

 

Well then...nothing to see here.

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Why would anyone think there would be a discount?

A long term deal would give him more guaranteed money, including a huge chunk of cash in the form of a signing bonus. He can get that from the Bills prior to playing another down. His other choice is to play 2016 under his option and hope to get that huge free agency deal next offseason. But he could also have a severe injury or a poor year and not get those big bucks so it's a risk for him. Of course if he does have a great 2016 he could get tagged. It makes sense for him to accept a deal that's a little less now AND get paid now rather than risk losing that huge payday.

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