Source: EJ Manuel to start Sunday for Tyrod Taylor

[thebandit27]

If EJ does play, I think we'll see a lot more throws to the middle of the field.

 

That sure would make sense...it was easily his strong point during his 14 starts.

[dave mcbride]

That sure would make sense...it was easily his strong point during his 14 starts.

Interesting. The pats took the entire middle of the field away from weeden as week and forced him to look outside the numbers because they didn't fear the cowboys' outside passing game. We may see something like that this week. Not being strong outside the numbers is a real weakness in a passing game, although i thought manuel made some good throws outside in preseason.

Edited October 14, 2015 by dave mcbride

[Wraith]

a 100% EJ is better than a 75% TT.

Yes.

 

I love that Taylor is a gamer and will try to gut it out, but without his legs our passing offense is going to be very simple and easy to defend. Jeremy White hit on something during his All-22 review this week, that the Bills do not pass into the middle of the field. I believe he counted 4 pass attempts that went past the line of scrimmage and weren't to the sideline.

 

The data backs that up. The split stats on ESPN have passing by area of the field (Left sideline, left, middle, right, and right sideline). Taylor passes waaaay less to the middle than either Kyle Orton last year or E.J. Manuel the year before. He passes to the left sideline 40% of the time, which is about double the rate at which the other two do. See the chart below (which lumps "left", "middle", and "right" into middle while leaving the sidelines unchanged.

 

About 20% of passes that Manuel and Orton threw to the middle of the field go to the left sideline instead, this year. Whether this is on Taylor (unable to see as well to the middle due to height?) or the design of the offense (Manuel and Orton's data comes from the same OC while Taylor's obviously does not) is not knowable. But, that is a biiiig difference. If the Bills pass 30 times, that is six throws going to the left sideline that used to go to the middle of the field.

 

With Taylor's scrambling ability, the defense still had to respect the middle of the field. All of his big runs start up through the middle before going to the sideline. Without it, our passing game is likely to be very limited unless the Bills offense can dramatically change their M.O.

[GunnerBill]

The lack of crossers has been something I have noticed during games. They are a way, if well executed, of getting the ball into the hands of your playmakers with good YAC potential and we have seen almost none of them. Orton's crossers to Sammy and Woods were a big part of our offense last year.

[KDIGGZ]

EJ to Gragg all day baby wooooooooooo

[thebandit27]

The lack of crossers has been something I have noticed during games. They are a way, if well executed, of getting the ball into the hands of your playmakers with good YAC potential and we have seen almost none of them. Orton's crossers to Sammy and Woods were a big part of our offense last year.

 

They had several called versus NE that Tyrod just didn't see...it was a bit frustrating seeing it from the stands.

[ALLEN1QB]

If EJ comes in and wins a couple games do you stick with him over TT? I say yes

[GunnerBill]

 

They had several called versus NE that Tyrod just didn't see...it was a bit frustrating seeing it from the stands.

 

Thanks Bandit. It isn't a surprise to know that they are calling them - it would seem a staple for the kind of team they want to be.

[26CornerBlitz]

@EJManuel3 Oct 5

"We rise by lifting others." Robert Ingersoll #MotivationMonday

[The Wiz]

If EJ comes in and wins a couple games do you stick with him over TT? I say yes

I'd say it depends. If HE is the one winning the game then there would be a good case to be made to stick with him. If the team is winning the games and EJ is just there then you would probably go back to your starter.

[BuffaloHokie13]

The lack of crossers has been something I have noticed during games. They are a way, if well executed, of getting the ball into the hands of your playmakers with good YAC potential and we have seen almost none of them. Orton's crossers to Sammy and Woods were a big part of our offense last year.

 

 

They had several called versus NE that Tyrod just didn't see...it was a bit frustrating seeing it from the stands.

While I'm sure part of it is Tyrod missing the crossing routes, I believe part of it is also simply Roman's offense. Based on the chart from Wraith EJ and Orton both threw over 50% of their throws to the middle of the field. So far this year (small sample size) it appears Tyrod's breakdown is 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right based on the chart. I looked at Kaepernick's splits from 2012-2014 to see if it compared at all. Overall over those 2.5 years of play Kaep broke down at 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right, and the highest % of attempts to the middle came in 2014 at 42%. I think Roman just tries to utilize more of the field.

 

Under Marrone/Hackett:

EJ: 22% Left, 51% Middle, 27% Right (Either 306 or 437 Attempts, not sure which Wraith used)

Orton: 22% Left, 54% Middle, 24% Right (447 Attempts)

 

Under Roman:

Tyrod: 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right (137 Attempts)

Kaep: 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right (1082 Attempts)

[GunnerBill]

While I'm sure part of it is Tyrod missing the crossing routes, I believe part of it is also simply Roman's offense. Based on the chart from Wraith EJ and Orton both threw over 50% of their throws to the middle of the field. So far this year (small sample size) it appears Tyrod's breakdown is 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right based on the chart. I looked at Kaepernick's splits from 2012-2014 to see if it compared at all. Overall over those 2.5 years of play Kaep broke down at 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right, and the highest % of attempts to the middle came in 2014 at 42%. I think Roman just tries to utilize more of the field.

 

Under Marrone/Hackett:

EJ: 22% Left, 51% Middle, 27% Right (Either 306 or 437 Attempts, not sure which Wraith used)

Orton: 22% Left, 54% Middle, 24% Right (447 Attempts)

 

Under Roman:

Tyrod: 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right (137 Attempts)

Kaep: 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right (1082 Attempts)

 

Good info. Cheers.

[Coach Tuesday]

 

They had several called versus NE that Tyrod just didn't see...it was a bit frustrating seeing it from the stands.

 

Yup.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

Good info. Cheers.

I certainly hope it evens out more around where Kaep's numbers fell, but at Tyrod's current sample size the numbers can change very quickly.

[Fan in Chicago]

I think Roman just tries to utilize more of the field.

 

Under Marrone/Hackett:

EJ: 22% Left, 51% Middle, 27% Right (Either 306 or 437 Attempts, not sure which Wraith used)

Orton: 22% Left, 54% Middle, 24% Right (447 Attempts)

 

Under Roman:

Tyrod: 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right (137 Attempts)

Kaep: 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right (1082 Attempts)

 

Good work. Thanx. Will be interesting to see these same stats for EJ under Roman (if he starts a meaningful number of games). I would think that Roman will tend to use the middle a bit more with EJ in there.

[DC Greg]

I'd say it depends. If HE is the one winning the game then there would be a good case to be made to stick with him. If the team is winning the games and EJ is just there then you would probably go back to your starter.

 

It will take a monumental effort for EJ to overcome TT as the starter IMO. I think he has to go at least 2-1, and he has to be a big part of the reason we win those two while subsequently not being the reason at all that we lose that one.

 

If he does all that, it's worth a consideration. But I think Rex and co. are going to be very inclined to go back to Tyrod. EJ will have to be near perfect.

[Gugny]

 

It will take a monumental effort for EJ to overcome TT as the starter IMO. I think he has to go at least 2-1, and he has to be a big part of the reason we win those two while subsequently not being the reason at all that we lose that one.

 

If he does all that, it's worth a consideration. But I think Rex and co. are going to be very inclined to go back to Tyrod. EJ will have to be near perfect.

 

The only game in which TT was the reason we won (last week), he was also the reason it was close to begin with.

 

I firmly believe that EJ is the better QB and I hope he shows it. With this opportunity, he really has to.

[hondo in seattle]

Woods says:

 

“A lot of guys are open. We’re just trying to be an open target for Tyrod – there’s a lot going on in the pocket. Defenses are throwing a lot of stuff at him. But just trying to be open. When the ball’s in the air, we’re trying to get it. But other than that, we’re just trying to be an open target for him.”

 

Woods is pretty clearly saying that Tyrod doesn't always find the open guy.

 

I know EJ was not a master at finding the open receiver in previous years but seemed pretty adept at it this preseason. Could EJ possibly be an upgrade in this regard???

 

http://bills.buffalonews.com/2015/10/13/receiver-woods-more-than-happy-to-throw-a-block-when-necessary/

[dave mcbride]

While I'm sure part of it is Tyrod missing the crossing routes, I believe part of it is also simply Roman's offense. Based on the chart from Wraith EJ and Orton both threw over 50% of their throws to the middle of the field. So far this year (small sample size) it appears Tyrod's breakdown is 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right based on the chart. I looked at Kaepernick's splits from 2012-2014 to see if it compared at all. Overall over those 2.5 years of play Kaep broke down at 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right, and the highest % of attempts to the middle came in 2014 at 42%. I think Roman just tries to utilize more of the field.

 

Under Marrone/Hackett:

EJ: 22% Left, 51% Middle, 27% Right (Either 306 or 437 Attempts, not sure which Wraith used)

Orton: 22% Left, 54% Middle, 24% Right (447 Attempts)

 

Under Roman:

Tyrod: 40% Left, 32% Middle, 28% Right (137 Attempts)

Kaep: 30% Left, 39% Middle, 31% Right (1082 Attempts)

Great info.

[ko12010]

This a monumental opportunity for EJ, and will shape his NFL future whether here in Buffalo or elsewhere. I hope he takes advantage!