Projecting contracts for upcoming Bills FAs

[ALF]

McCoy and Clay have guaranteed money.

 

If Chris Williams is still injured or can be replaced

 

Looks like last year for Fred due to cap.

 

If Taylor can replace Cassel , yet to see

 

Harvin may have to go after this year to keep Glenn , Bradam and Gilmore .

 

Have Dareus as a must sign.

[atlbillsfan1975]

That's absolutely not true. They've spent somewhat foolishly on Shady, Clay and several others. What they haven't done is shown restraint or drafted particularly well.

BS. There's a time and place to go "all in" and it isn't with Matt Cassel at QB.

Ok. And no NFL teams have a poor plan? No NFL front offices make any bad decisions? Puh-lease. I'll call it like I see it without any Red-and-Blue tinted glasses.

I think you call it like you are afraid it is. Stop living In the past my friend. This is a new era in The Franchise. Enjoy the present and let the future develope.

[What a Tuel]

That's absolutely not true. They've spent somewhat foolishly on Shady, Clay and several others. What they haven't done is shown restraint or drafted particularly well.

BS. There's a time and place to go "all in" and it isn't with Matt Cassel at QB.

Ok. And no NFL teams have a poor plan? No NFL front offices make any bad decisions? Puh-lease. I'll call it like I see it without any Red-and-Blue tinted glasses.

 

Foolishly on Shady? What? He is making what he should be making. Top 4 money for a top 4 running back. Lynch just got paid. DeMarco Murray just got paid. Why would we be stingy with McCoy? Because you don't see the value in RB's these days?

 

As for Clay, we spent what we needed to draw a quality tight end out. Something we haven't had in a long time.

 

Jordan Cameron - 2 years $15 million ($7.5 per year)

Charles Clay - 5 years $38 million ($7.6 per year)

 

The worst part about Clay is the $10 million dollar roster bonus in 2016, which, like I have said, and you have said, they will work on next year.

[BarleyNY]

Foolishly on Shady? What? He is making what he should be making. Top 4 money for a top 4 running back. Lynch just got paid. DeMarco Murray just got paid. Why would we be stingy with McCoy? Because you don't see the value in RB's these days?

 

As for Clay, we spent what we needed to draw a quality tight end out. Something we haven't had in a long time.

 

Jordan Cameron - 2 years $15 million ($7.5 per year)

Charles Clay - 5 years $38 million ($7.6 per year)

 

The worst part about Clay is the $10 million dollar roster bonus in 2016, which, like I have said, and you have said, they will work on next year.

Clay isn't on Jordan Cameron's level, but he's being paid better than Cameron. A lot better. And I truly hate the "it's what it took to get him" line of thought. If something is overpriced smart people pass on it. If the Phins or Jets just gave Clay that contract people here would be ripping them.

 

As for Shady, he not only got that huge deal - 5 years, $40M - the Bills gave up Kiko to get him here. I'm not a fan of dumping that kind of money into any RB, but losing Kiko was the icing on the overpayment cake. He was very productive in Philly, but he will be in a different offense in Buffalo and that's a concern to me. Again, it's okay to pass if the price and/or risk is too high.

[Kelly the Dog]

Clay isn't on Jordan Cameron's level, but he's being paid better than Cameron. A lot better. And I truly hate the "it's what it took to get him" line of thought. If something is overpriced smart people pass on it. If the Phins or Jets just gave Clay that contract people here would be ripping them..

Clay is a better all around player than Jordan Cameron. If both were UFA Clay would have received WAY more than Cameron's 15m.

[BarleyNY]

Clay is a better all around player than Jordan Cameron. If both were UFA Clay would have received WAY more than Cameron's 15m.

Cameron's issue has been injuries including concussions. That is what kept him from a much bigger payday. When healthy he is a far better TE than Clay. Cameron is an exceptional receiving TE, but not a very good blocker. Clay is good at both blocking and receiving, but he's nothing special at either. An exceptional receiving TE is way more valuable than a good all around TE/H-back.

[Wayne Cubed]

Cameron's issue has been injuries including concussions. That is what kept him from a much bigger payday. When healthy he is a far better TE than Clay. Cameron is an exceptional receiving TE, but not a very good blocker. Clay is good at both blocking and receiving, but he's nothing special at either. An exceptional receiving TE is way more valuable than a good all around TE/H-back.

What makes him an "exceptional" TE? Is it his one season where he had 80 receptions and 917 yards and 7 TDs?

 

Well, as I'm sure you are aware, in that same season Clay had 69 receptions 759 yards and 6 TDs, if Clay were to have as many receptions as Cameron, it's possible he could have put up the same yardage and TDs.

Edited July 11, 2015 by Wayne Cubed

[What a Tuel]

Clay isn't on Jordan Cameron's level, but he's being paid better than Cameron. A lot better. And I truly hate the "it's what it took to get him" line of thought. If something is overpriced smart people pass on it. If the Phins or Jets just gave Clay that contract people here would be ripping them.

 

As for Shady, he not only got that huge deal - 5 years, $40M - the Bills gave up Kiko to get him here. I'm not a fan of dumping that kind of money into any RB, but losing Kiko was the icing on the overpayment cake. He was very productive in Philly, but he will be in a different offense in Buffalo and that's a concern to me. Again, it's okay to pass if the price and/or risk is too high.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on Clay. It obviously hasn't been decided who will perform better yet with each in 2 new systems. Cameron was impressive in 2013, but his production dropped sharply, partially because of the concussion issue, partially because defenses started paying attention to him, and partially because of the QB carousel in Cleveland. We will see how he does in Miami. If the Jets/Dolphins do anything the general fanbase will knock them for it haha, that shouldn't be a gauge for how good of a move it was. I also think that if the Dolphins would not have gotten Suh, they likely would have matched for Clay and Cameron might still be in Cleveland, so.....I mean no one knows for sure now, but Miami certainly wanted to keep Clay.

 

Every Philly fan I talk to misses McCoy. They are hesitant to believe Kiko was worth it, and are worried about his injury history. Kiko was great his rookie year, but you have to give to get. We took away from our strength to add to our weakness. We showed last year our defense can handle things without him (and even improved). Putting salaries and age aside, if McCoy and Kiko were in the 2015 draft, who would you prefer the Bills select? Who do you believe we need more?

Edited July 11, 2015 by What a Tuel

[John from Riverside]

That's absolutely not true. They've spent somewhat foolishly on Shady, Clay and several others. What they haven't done is shown restraint or drafted particularly well.

BS. There's a time and place to go "all in" and it isn't with Matt Cassel at QB.

Ok. And no NFL teams have a poor plan? No NFL front offices make any bad decisions? Puh-lease. I'll call it like I see it without any Red-and-Blue tinted glasses.

Its interesting that you didnt even answer my question doom and gloom

[John from Riverside]

Clay isn't on Jordan Cameron's level, but he's being paid better than Cameron. A lot better. And I truly hate the "it's what it took to get him" line of thought. If something is overpriced smart people pass on it. If the Phins or Jets just gave Clay that contract people here would be ripping them.

 

As for Shady, he not only got that huge deal - 5 years, $40M - the Bills gave up Kiko to get him here. I'm not a fan of dumping that kind of money into any RB, but losing Kiko was the icing on the overpayment cake. He was very productive in Philly, but he will be in a different offense in Buffalo and that's a concern to me. Again, it's okay to pass if the price and/or risk is too high.

Your entitled to your opinion.....but I def dont agree with you.....

 

Clay is not on Cameron's level? Not only do the two players stats not support that take.....not only is Clay entering into his prime years....not only is Clay a perfect fit for the bills offense.....but CAMERON HAS CONCUSSION ISSUES.....Cameron is literally one hit away from being completely finished.......so....enough on that

 

Shady got the deal he got because of his production.....because of how good he is.....and the trade was for a linebacker that has had two.....count them TWO leg injuries in his young career.......I wish Kiko the best....but that trade is frankly a no brainer when you consider we had a top 5 defense WITHOUT him.

Edited July 11, 2015 by John from Hemet

[NoSaint]

Your entitled to your opinion.....but I def dont agree with you.....

 

Clay is not on Cameron's level? Not only do the two players stats not support that take.....not only is Clay entering into his prime years....not only is Clay a perfect fit for the bills offense.....but CAMERON HAS CONCUSSION ISSUES.....Cameron is literally one hit away from being completely finished.......so....enough on that

 

Shady got the deal he got because of his production.....because of how good he is.....and the trade was for a linebacker that has had two.....count them TWO leg injuries in his young career.......I wish Kiko the best....but that trade is frankly a no brainer when you consider we had a top 5 defense WITHOUT him.

You sometimes seem to struggle distinguishing between "I hate that guy he sucks" and "he's a good player but I don't think we will see the full return on investment"

 

McCoy got a monster deal and cost a good young player- will it pay off? I think it'll be good but in 3 years we may be pondering whether it was maximizing the resources.

[John from Riverside]

You sometimes seem to struggle distinguishing between "I hate that guy he sucks" and "he's a good player but I don't think we will see the full return on investment"

 

McCoy got a monster deal and cost a good young player- will it pay off? I think it'll be good but in 3 years we may be pondering whether it was maximizing the resources.

I dont have a hard time understanding anything on this.....

 

- Has Kiko Alonzo not had two pretty severe injuries and one to each leg......and that was with him only being in a bills uni for one year....I am NOT HATING on kiko....I am saying that if we are going to project value...the fact is Shady has had several ultra productive years.......is still a top 5 back......has shown the ability to a productive RB in different systems as he was in two different offenses while he was with the eagles.......

 

In order to get your value.....the players have to be on the field......shade = thurman thomas like in his durability.....Kiko = young but already sustaining injuries that keep him out for full season.

 

THen......you factor in what can you give away on one side of the ball to make the other side of the ball better......

 

Shady = top 5 NFL RB

Kiko = Defense didnt miss a beat.....now this is because of our down linemen AND the fact that Whaley just seems to be able to pick very good linebacker's out his butt every draft

 

We moved pieces around the chess board to be a more balanced team

What makes him an "exceptional" TE? Is it his one season where he had 80 receptions and 917 yards and 7 TDs?

 

Well, as I'm sure you are aware, in that same season Clay had 69 receptions 759 yards and 6 TDs, if Clay were to have as many receptions as Cameron, it's possible he could have put up the same yardage and TDs.

And one of them isnt 1 concussion away from retirement

[buffalover4life]

franchise tag on DTs is very cheap. mentioned this in other threads. $9.5 million last year i believe, we have plenty of leverage on that front. 20% raises each year that it is used..

[NoSaint]

I dont have a hard time understanding anything on this.....

 

- Has Kiko Alonzo not had two pretty severe injuries and one to each leg......and that was with him only being in a bills uni for one year....I am NOT HATING on kiko....I am saying that if we are going to project value...the fact is Shady has had several ultra productive years.......is still a top 5 back......has shown the ability to a productive RB in different systems as he was in two different offenses while he was with the eagles.......

 

In order to get your value.....the players have to be on the field......shade = thurman thomas like in his durability.....Kiko = young but already sustaining injuries that keep him out for full season.

 

THen......you factor in what can you give away on one side of the ball to make the other side of the ball better......

 

Shady = top 5 NFL RB

Kiko = Defense didnt miss a beat.....now this is because of our down linemen AND the fact that Whaley just seems to be able to pick very good linebacker's out his butt every draft

 

We moved pieces around the chess board to be a more balanced team

 

And one of them isnt 1 concussion away from retirement

 

See and now I think you are misunderstanding me too as you seem to think I'm saying kiko is great or McCoy isn't....

 

his point is that even as a very good back to give up a young player AND a substantial portion of your salary cap is a lot. It would take leseans next 5 years to look like his last 5. In trading kiko AND spending like that could we have added more to the team? Paying market value in a contract plus market value in the trade will always be hard for a player to live up to. No need to get worked up.

[John from Riverside]

See and now I think you are misunderstanding me too as you seem to think I'm saying kiko is great or McCoy isn't....

 

his point is that even as a very good back to give up a young player AND a substantial portion of your salary cap is a lot. It would take leseans next 5 years to look like his last 5. In trading kiko AND spending like that could we have added more to the team? Paying market value in a contract plus market value in the trade will always be hard for a player to live up to. No need to get worked up.

Not worked up just trying to understand your position.

 

I think we will need to see what Shady does in this offense........I myself envision CJ Spiller like speed with some actual feel and vision on the field which always seemed to escape CJ.......

 

Were not going to have a franchise QB......we need our running game to be great and take the pressure off the QB to win games. Shady is gonna get the ball a tone in both the run and pass in the bills offense.

 

It might actually be money well spent.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

See and now I think you are misunderstanding me too as you seem to think I'm saying kiko is great or McCoy isn't....

 

his point is that even as a very good back to give up a young player AND a substantial portion of your salary cap is a lot. It would take leseans next 5 years to look like his last 5. In trading kiko AND spending like that could we have added more to the team? Paying market value in a contract plus market value in the trade will always be hard for a player to live up to. No need to get worked up.

I think it behooves this team to get to the playoffs and wash off the stink of the last 15 years. It either catches the eye of a veteran QB thinking win-now or it cultivates a better environment for a rookie QB beginning development. It also has an effect on the org. bottom to top, success begets success. If McCoy improves the offense and helps that happen it adds significantly to his value for me. Edited July 13, 2015 by Aaron

[GunnerBill]

So... someone who understands the cap better than me - can you do the following maths?

 

If:

 

Cassel is not on the roster for 2016;

Fred is not on the roster for 2016;

Chris Williams is not on the roster for 2016;

McKelvin is not on the roster for 2016;

Harvin is not on the roster for 2016;

Clay agrees to spread his roster bonus across the rest of his deal;

 

Can we then afford:

 

A deal similar to the original article projection for Dareus;

A deal similar to the original article projection for Bradham;

A deal similar to what Brandon Albert got for Glenn;

 

??

 

That would be my plan - I just don't know if the numbers work out. I think if we can make 2016's cap work and leave ourselves money to keep Gilmore in 2017 then we will have a couple of years where the pressure is off a touch - we will have to find money for Watkins... Woods might look like an unaffordable luxury but we traded away Alonso, EJ probably isn't going to be renewed (or will only get a small deal)... there is no 1st rounder to pay from this year's draft (although I am working on the basis that Darby is starting by the end of this year so as a 3 year starter by that point at CB will probably want big money). I think the next two years is the crunch point. If we can keep all 4 of Dareus, Glenn, Bradham and Gilmore you may well be looking at 4 cornerstones of this franchise for the next 5-8 years.

[NoSaint]

Not worked up just trying to understand your position.

 

I think we will need to see what Shady does in this offense........I myself envision CJ Spiller like speed with some actual feel and vision on the field which always seemed to escape CJ.......

 

Were not going to have a franchise QB......we need our running game to be great and take the pressure off the QB to win games. Shady is gonna get the ball a tone in both the run and pass in the bills offense.

 

It might actually be money well spent.

i dont think its a hard take to understand, if you stop trying to prove it wrong.

 

we paid mccoy a top notch market value contract, and gave up extra to get him. if hes the straw that stirs the drink, great, sometime you have to do that.

 

then you have clay who we had to give a top notch contract, and its possible we were bidding against ourselves a little to try and make sure it hurt the dolphins. if hes the straw that stirs the drink great, sometimes you have to do that.

 

when you look at them individually its easy to make the argument, barley is simply saying you can only make that argument so many times, and they better work out great.

[GunnerBill]

So... someone who understands the cap better than me - can you do the following maths?

 

If:

 

Cassel is not on the roster for 2016;

Fred is not on the roster for 2016;

Chris Williams is not on the roster for 2016;

McKelvin is not on the roster for 2016;

Harvin is not on the roster for 2016;

Clay agrees to spread his roster bonus across the rest of his deal;

 

Can we then afford:

 

A deal similar to the original article projection for Dareus;

A deal similar to the original article projection for Bradham;

A deal similar to what Brandon Albert got for Glenn;

 

??

 

That would be my plan - I just don't know if the numbers work out. I think if we can make 2016's cap work and leave ourselves money to keep Gilmore in 2017 then we will have a couple of years where the pressure is off a touch - we will have to find money for Watkins... Woods might look like an unaffordable luxury but we traded away Alonso, EJ probably isn't going to be renewed (or will only get a small deal)... there is no 1st rounder to pay from this year's draft (although I am working on the basis that Darby is starting by the end of this year so as a 3 year starter by that point at CB will probably want big money). I think the next two years is the crunch point. If we can keep all 4 of Dareus, Glenn, Bradham and Gilmore you may well be looking at 4 cornerstones of this franchise for the next 5-8 years.

 

I've tried it on the over the cap projection tool and on that it is very difficult unless you basically keep Marcel at his current salary in 2016 and also have cap friendly year 1 deals for Glenn and Bradham. That means you are backloading a whole truck of money though. It leads to a position whereby in 2018 (the year we would need to have just extended Watkins) I have 47% of my cap (against their projected cap ceiling it should be said) spent on 7 players - Dareus, Glenn, Bradham, McCoy, Hughes, Clay and Aaron Williams. That is without factoring in Watkins, it is without factoring in Preston Brown, it is without factoring in Gilmore all of whom will want paying - you could be looking at 60% of the cap on basically 10 players (and it accepts that Robert Woods walks). I don't think it is achievable folks and I think Barley's point on Clay and McCoy might be proved... they hurt the ability of this team to keep its own in the long run. To cut them both in 2018 would free up about $6million in cap space but would cost about $9million in dead money.

 

One of those three does not get signed.

[Franchiseneedsme]

I hope the young guys on the o line pan out and we can let Glenn walk.

[John from Riverside]

i dont think its a hard take to understand, if you stop trying to prove it wrong.

 

we paid mccoy a top notch market value contract, and gave up extra to get him. if hes the straw that stirs the drink, great, sometime you have to do that.

 

then you have clay who we had to give a top notch contract, and its possible we were bidding against ourselves a little to try and make sure it hurt the dolphins. if hes the straw that stirs the drink great, sometimes you have to do that.

 

when you look at them individually its easy to make the argument, barley is simply saying you can only make that argument so many times, and they better work out great.

OK fair enough

 

I am just trying to say that I understand why they did what they did.

 

There was a time when the team rolled on that "cash to cap" model and that absolutely has not worked out for us.......now they are going to other direction and it is a unknown whether it will work out for us...but at least they are trying.

[GunnerBill]

OK fair enough

 

I am just trying to say that I understand why they did what they did.

 

There was a time when the team rolled on that "cash to cap" model and that absolutely has not worked out for us.......now they are going to other direction and it is a unknown whether it will work out for us...but at least they are trying.

 

 

People get very hung up on models.... but any model you are running is only as good ultimately as the decisions that are made and the people that are making them. The McCoy deal in particular better work out in the short term because it is going to hurt us long term.

[YoloinOhio]

Justin Houston got paid!

 

@AroundTheNFL: Chiefs lock up Justin Houston: six years, $101M with $52.5M in guarantees, per @Rand_Getlin and @AlbertBreer

http://t.co/BwQEDVY1Wc

 

@spotrac: Players set to benefit from Houstons big payday:

#Broncos Von Miller (expires after 2015)

#Bills Mario Williams (likely restructure)

[BarleyNY]

Justin Houston got paid!

@AroundTheNFL: Chiefs lock up Justin Houston: six years, $101M with $52.5M in guarantees, per @Rand_Getlin and @AlbertBreer

http://t.co/BwQEDVY1Wc

@spotrac: Players set to benefit from Houstons big payday:

#Broncos Von Miller (expires after 2015)

#Bills Mario Williams (likely restructure)

Crap. It looks like that projected Dareus contract of 6 years, $105M total with $55M guaranteed from the article in your original post is pretty dead on. Perhaps it could be done as an extension.

[YoloinOhio]

 

@RapSheet: More Justin Houston numbers for his 6 year, $101M deal: His signing bonus was $20.5M. $32.5M is fully guaranteed, $52.5M in guarantees.

[NoSaint]

 

 

People get very hung up on models.... but any model you are running is only as good ultimately as the decisions that are made and the people that are making them. The McCoy deal in particular better work out in the short term because it is going to hurt us long term.

cash to cap really isnt terrible as long as you are willing to bend on signing bonus for a franchise qb, or other outlier situations.

 

like you said, you just have to give that cash to the right people. when thats kelsay, and dockery, and.... you draft guys like whitner and maybin in the top 15 as your cheap difference makers.... well....

[GunnerBill]

cash to cap really isnt terrible as long as you are willing to bend on signing bonus for a franchise qb, or other outlier situations.

 

like you said, you just have to give that cash to the right people. when thats kelsay, and dockery, and.... you draft guys like whitner and maybin in the top 15 as your cheap difference makers.... well....

 

Exactly.