QB play in decline?

[Big Blitz]

If you want to count Wilson, Kap, Cam, fine...but outside of Luck IMO there hasn't been a truly great QB drafted since probably before 2008 maybe longer. Those guys I named I think the jury is still out on how great they can be. So I'm not ready to call them elite.

 

So I do think we have a problem and I think it starts at the High School level. Everyone is going to some variation of Oregon's scheme. Which means they are sacrificing the traditional pocket guy for a more mobile QB. Which is great for winning games with speed and trying to push the pace, etc (which ironically is tough to do in high school bc of the officials--it's not the same as college). But not so good for developing a QB. I've seen as a coach our team go with the kid who's far more athletic then the kid who's the better thrower. I've seen kids leave high schools for this reason to go to one where they think they'll play. It's crazy.

 

Also, the constant need for plays coming in from the sideline makes them robotic. Not all, but it's not like they're being coached to take risks---the opposite. They're being coached to take what's given. That's the point of the sideline calls. All game. Is that beneficial for QB development? Yes you want to take advantage of what is given you, but come the NFL, well....this is the big time.....Defenses are too good and aren't going to let you take advantage. You gotta make plays.

 

Luck Brady Flacco and Peyton were your final 4 in the AFC. Wilson Rodgers Romo and Cam in the NFC. I can't take the Panthers seriously---they beat the Cardinals 4th QB and were terrible all year. Wilson is fantastic as a runner but can be exposed as a passer if the run game isn't clicking.....and that D sure helps. I do think he's got the best tools of the crop of the last 5 years tho outside of Luck.

 

Anyway it's still a pocket passers league but the great ones are getting harder to come by. Defenses are catching up to the read option. I think that's why Kap had a down year. I think that's why Cam is so up and down.

 

 

Just my thoughts. See a lot of talk about overall QB play thought it could use its own thread. Curious to here your takes.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Big Blitz

[KDIGGZ]

It starts at a young age. The best athlete on the team they put at RB. The next best they put at QB. It doesn't really matter how well they throw. They are no longer grooming traditional QB's. They are just putting athletes on the field that can run around and make plays. Spread option type QB's are successful in high school and college but that success has not translated to the pros because the defense is too fast. So now we have a ton of option QB's but not as many traditional guys so the talent pool is less and less when it comes to drop back passers

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Interesting idea. Have classic pocket passers ever thrived at the collegiate level or hs level without being a good to great athlete?

 

I know there are exceptions but as a rule, thinking not so much

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The only way to remedy this is to get a farm system or make college teams run pro offenses, which will never happen.

[OldTimer1960]

I think that the OP has a point, but I argue that now isn't much different than the last 50 years - there never were a large number of great QBs. The aberration is when there are more than a handful of outstanding QBs.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I have a totally different out look. It's two fold:

 

1) we've been lucky enough to watch Peyton, Brady, Breese, Rodgers and Big Ben over the last 10+ years. I think these guys are often under valued for how truely great they are.

 

2) defensive has evolved so much in the last decade. Hybrid schemes, players and packages create a terrifying pictur for QBs (especially like those from spread offensives in college).

 

This combination has us wish for the next Brady, luck or manning, when in reality, those guys are one in a decade type players

[1billsfan]

If you want to count Wilson, Kap, Cam, fine...but outside of Luck IMO there hasn't been a truly great QB drafted since probably before 2008 maybe longer. Those guys I named I think the jury is still out on how great they can be. So I'm not ready to call them elite.

 

So I do think we have a problem and I think it starts at the High School level. Everyone is going to some variation of Oregon's scheme. Which means they are sacrificing the traditional pocket guy for a more mobile QB. Which is great for winning games with speed and trying to push the pace, etc (which ironically is tough to do in high school bc of the officials--it's not the same as college). But not so good for developing a QB. I've seen as a coach our team go with the kid who's far more athletic then the kid who's the better thrower. I've seen kids leave high schools for this reason to go to one where they think they'll play. It's crazy.

 

Also, the constant need for plays coming in from the sideline makes them robotic. Not all, but it's not like they're being coached to take risks---the opposite. They're being coached to take what's given. That's the point of the sideline calls. All game. Is that beneficial for QB development? Yes you want to take advantage of what is given you, but come the NFL, well....this is the big time.....Defenses are too good and aren't going to let you take advantage. You gotta make plays.

 

Luck Brady Flacco and Peyton were your final 4 in the AFC. Wilson Rodgers Romo and Cam in the NFC. I can't take the Panthers seriously---they beat the Cardinals 4th QB and were terrible all year. Wilson is fantastic as a runner but can be exposed as a passer if the run game isn't clicking.....and that D sure helps. I do think he's got the best tools of the crop of the last 5 years tho outside of Luck.

 

Anyway it's still a pocket passers league but the great ones are getting harder to come by. Defenses are catching up to the read option. I think that's why Kap had a down year. I think that's why Cam is so up and down.

 

 

Just my thoughts. See a lot of talk about overall QB play thought it could use its own thread. Curious to here your takes.

 

Good topic. I think that a lot of the problem is with offensive coaches who have 200 page play books with 1,000s of play variations. What I mean by that is that is I think coaches make QBs think too much and don't ever allow them to play with a clear mind.

 

An athlete, especially a QB, is at their best when they let their natural instincts take over and they don't fear failure. It's why it seems that the majority of QBs no matter their skill level are at their best running a 2 min offense when the playbook becomes much more simplified.

 

I've been saying all along that EJ Manuel still has not been given a real shot to show what he is as a QB because of Marrone's "avoid any risk at all costs" offense. Is EJ a potential throw the ball 30-40 times a game franchise QB? No way, but I think he is a guy with a potential to be good if he were told to stop thinking, take chances and play instinctively. I do see Manuel as potentially an average to above average NFL QB who is good enough to get the team in the playoffs, then can go on a hot streak kind of like Eli or Flacco. I'm looking forward to seeing how Manuel performs under a professional NFL offensive coach. It should be clear to everyone by now that Marrone was indeed a big anchor to Manuel's development, how much so we will get to see this year.

Edited February 10, 2015 by 1billsfan

[Mark80]

I have a totally different out look. It's two fold:

 

1) we've been lucky enough to watch Peyton, Brady, Breese, Rodgers and Big Ben over the last 10+ years. I think these guys are often under valued for how truely great they are.

 

2) defensive has evolved so much in the last decade. Hybrid schemes, players and packages create a terrifying pictur for QBs (especially like those from spread offensives in college).

 

This combination has us wish for the next Brady, luck or manning, when in reality, those guys are one in a decade type players

 

While this is true, the rules have also changed to significantly favor the offense and especially the passing game. Contact rules on WRs, defenseless receiver rules leading to no consequence of going over the middle, you can't fart on the QB without getting a roughing the passer call, etc. I think that aspect gets balanced out because of these rule changes.

 

Good topic. I think that a lot of the problem is with offensive coaches who have 200 page play books with 1,000s of play variations. What I mean by that is that is I think coaches make QBs think too much and don't ever allow them to play with a clear mind.

 

An athlete, especially a QB, is at their best when they let their natural instincts take over and they don't fear failure. It's why it seems that the majority of QBs no matter their skill level are at their best running a 2 min offense when the playbook becomes much more simplified.

 

I've been saying all along that EJ Manuel still has not been given a real shot to show what he is as a QB because of Marrone's "avoid any risk at all costs" offense. Is EJ a potential throw the ball 30-40 times a game franchise QB? No way, but I think he is a guy with a potential to be good if he were told to stop thinking, take chances and play instinctively. I do see Manuel as potentially an average to above average NFL QB who is good enough to get the team in the playoffs, then can go on a hot streak kind of like Eli or Flacco. I'm looking forward to seeing how Manuel performs under a professional NFL offensive coach. It should be clear to everyone by now that Marrone was indeed a big anchor to Manuel's development, how much so we will get to see this year.

 

I agree with your whole post and especially this part on EJ. He even stated after his benching something like "next time I get the opportunity, I'm letting it rip." To me, that meant that they were clearly keeping him on a short leash when it came to making plays.

[peterpan]

This is only an NFL issue. College and HS football are great to watch as is.

 

IMO coaches do not get good players and then build a winning scheme around them The only guy who seems to do that is Belicheat. Chip Kelly's offenses seem to be doing just fine with average QBs in the NFL.

 

I believe the issue is the coaches, not the QBs. Develop the players and get a scheme they can thrive in, that is the answer. Instead, you have them drafting players based on pure physical measurements (EJ Manual) who are not quarterbacks. Then you take the assets they do have (mobility, same issue with Losman here) and try to minimize that and turn them into Peyton Manning. WTF??

PS - Russel Wilson is great, idk if you watch him much, but he is unbelievable.

 

And that is another example of a coach building a system for a player, rather than trying to build a player into the system

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

the great QB's in the NFL are cyclical.

 

that's why the saying goes

 

History repeats itself.....

[BuffaloHokie13]

This is only an NFL issue. College and HS football are great to watch as is.

 

IMO coaches do not get good players and then build a winning scheme around them The only guy who seems to do that is Belicheat. Chip Kelly's offenses seem to be doing just fine with average QBs in the NFL.

 

I believe the issue is the coaches, not the QBs. Develop the players and get a scheme they can thrive in, that is the answer. Instead, you have them drafting players based on pure physical measurements (EJ Manual) who are not quarterbacks. Then you take the assets they do have (mobility, same issue with Losman here) and try to minimize that and turn them into Peyton Manning. WTF??

PS - Russel Wilson is great, idk if you watch him much, but he is unbelievable.

 

And that is another example of a coach building a system for a player, rather than trying to build a player into the system

This, along with injury, is the difference between year 1 RoY RGIII and today's RGIII. Fortunately for us, Roman has proven willing to adapt his scheme as he brought aspects from the Pistol offense into SF to make Kaep more comfortable since he ran it extensively at Nevada

[papazoid]

my take, expectations are too high.

 

 

if your not an instant franchise QB, you suck, next man up.

 

 

if wilson or kap played for JAX, they would be viewed alot differently.

 

 

teams are just so desperate for a Top 10 qb.....the line keeps moving in qb rankings and what is considered good enough.

[zonabb]

This, along with injury, is the difference between year 1 RoY RGIII and today's RGIII. Fortunately for us, Roman has proven willing to adapt his scheme as he brought aspects from the Pistol offense into SF to make Kaep more comfortable since he ran it extensively at Nevada

Not sure what channel was on while I having breakfast yesterday but that big lunkhead OL that played for Denver whose name I can't remember and some other honk were talking about Kaepernick yesterday and saying just the opposite, that he regressed this past year because the offense did not adapt to his strengths and instead tried to open up. Further that he was sacked the most of any QB last year. His QBR has decline EVERY year since his rookie season. His rushing yards have gone up each of the last season. I never thought he was great, just an average QN who early on lucked out with an excellent line and RB, each of which seems to be regressing, which to me suggests that Kaepernick isn't going to carry a team, he needs a strong running game and line. I would also argue that Wilson is the same thing, the games I've seen him, he's totally underwhelmed. He's fallen into a great situation with an OL and RB that allow him to limit his passing attempts. He was 19th this year in attempts because they don't base their offense on him and when they have to, when the OL and RB game decline, we'll see the true Wilson IMO.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Not sure what channel was on while I having breakfast yesterday but that big lunkhead OL that played for Denver whose name I can't remember and some other honk were talking about Kaepernick yesterday and saying just the opposite, that he regressed this past year because the offense did not adapt to his strengths and instead tried to open up. Further that he was sacked the most of any QB last year. His QBR has decline EVERY year since his rookie season. His rushing yards have gone up each of the last season. I never thought he was great, just an average QN who early on lucked out with an excellent line and RB, each of which seems to be regressing, which to me suggests that Kaepernick isn't going to carry a team, he needs a strong running game and line. I would also argue that Wilson is the same thing, the games I've seen him, he's totally underwhelmed. He's fallen into a great situation with an OL and RB that allow him to limit his passing attempts. He was 19th this year in attempts because they don't base their offense on him and when they have to, when the OL and RB game decline, we'll see the true Wilson IMO.

His regression had little to do with scheme, and more to do with his limitations IMO. Each year Roman opened a bit more of the playbook and asked him to do more, and the more Kaep was asked to do the worse he did. I didn't intend my Roman statement as a defense for Kaep being one of the good QB's though, so sorry if it came off that way

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

my take, expectations are too high.

 

 

if your not an instant franchise QB, you suck, next man up.

 

 

if wilson or kap played for JAX, they would be viewed alot differently.

 

 

teams are just so desperate for a Top 10 qb.....the line keeps moving in qb rankings and what is considered good enough.

what he said

[1billsfan]

His regression had little to do with scheme, and more to do with his limitations IMO. Each year Roman opened a bit more of the playbook and asked him to do more, and the more Kaep was asked to do the worse he did. I didn't intend my Roman statement as a defense for Kaep being one of the good QB's though, so sorry if it came off that way

 

In Keapernick's first two season's starting 2012 and 2013 he had a total of 5 games with 30 or more attempts including the playoff run to the Super Bowl. In 2014, he had 8 games with 30 or more attempts and his play dropped dramatically.

 

In RGIII's first season he had 4 games with 30 or more attempts. In 2013 he had 10 games with 30 or more attempts and his play dropped dramatically.

 

 

The lesson is that you don't try to force these promising QBs into the Brady or Manning mold. Hopefully Roman has learned that lesson. You hope to have a great running game and try to limit the "pitch count" of a limited QB to 20-29 attempts.

[billykaykay]

 

Good topic. I think that a lot of the problem is with offensive coaches who have 200 page play books with 1,000s of play variations. What I mean by that is that is I think coaches make QBs think too much and don't ever allow them to play with a clear mind.

 

An athlete, especially a QB, is at their best when they let their natural instincts take over and they don't fear failure. It's why it seems that the majority of QBs no matter their skill level are at their best running a 2 min offense when the playbook becomes much more simplified.

 

I've been saying all along that EJ Manuel still has not been given a real shot to show what he is as a QB because of Marrone's "avoid any risk at all costs" offense. Is EJ a potential throw the ball 30-40 times a game franchise QB? No way, but I think he is a guy with a potential to be good if he were told to stop thinking, take chances and play instinctively. I do see Manuel as potentially an average to above average NFL QB who is good enough to get the team in the playoffs, then can go on a hot streak kind of like Eli or Flacco. I'm looking forward to seeing how Manuel performs under a professional NFL offensive coach. It should be clear to everyone by now that Marrone was indeed a big anchor to Manuel's development, how much so we will get to see this year.

Agree. Jim Kelly, running the Hurry up offense, had a limited amount of plays.

[FireChan]

Not sure what channel was on while I having breakfast yesterday but that big lunkhead OL that played for Denver whose name I can't remember and some other honk were talking about Kaepernick yesterday and saying just the opposite, that he regressed this past year because the offense did not adapt to his strengths and instead tried to open up. Further that he was sacked the most of any QB last year. His QBR has decline EVERY year since his rookie season. His rushing yards have gone up each of the last season. I never thought he was great, just an average QN who early on lucked out with an excellent line and RB, each of which seems to be regressing, which to me suggests that Kaepernick isn't going to carry a team, he needs a strong running game and line. I would also argue that Wilson is the same thing, the games I've seen him, he's totally underwhelmed. He's fallen into a great situation with an OL and RB that allow him to limit his passing attempts. He was 19th this year in attempts because they don't base their offense on him and when they have to, when the OL and RB game decline, we'll see the true Wilson IMO.

Seattle's O-line is not good.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

In Keapernick's first two season's starting 2012 and 2013 he had a total of 5 games with 30 or more attempts including the playoff run to the Super Bowl. In 2014, he had 8 games with 30 or more attempts and his play dropped dramatically.

 

In RGIII's first season he had 4 games with 30 or more attempts. In 2013 he had 10 games with 30 or more attempts and his play dropped dramatically.

 

 

The lesson is that you don't try to force these promising QBs into the Brady or Manning mold. Hopefully Roman has learned that lesson. You hope to have a great running game and try to limit the "pitch count" of a limited QB to 20-29 attempts.

Definitely agree whoever our QB is, the attempts should be limited. I do wonder whether the pressure to throw was due to Roman or ex QB head coach Harbaugh, but either way it looks to be that the Bills intend to run first.

[PromoTheRobot]

The only way to remedy this is to get a farm system or make college teams run pro offenses, which will never happen.

An NFL-D league. Owners believed colleges filed that role but I'm more convinced than ever a development league is needed again. Ask Fred Jackson what NFL Europe did for him. Edited February 10, 2015 by PromoTheRobot