OCinBuffalo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) Last year somebody asked for a "who should we root for" Bottom Line thread. It seems like once again, this will be useful. First, like last year, let me remind you that this is the Bottom Line Thread. That means that once again, I have gone here: http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html and used this as my source material. These results are produced by math, not opinion. So, if you want to have discussions about who you think will win, rather than which team winning gives the Bill the best chance to make the playoffs? This thread is not for you, and I will remind you of that as we proceed. On to the goods(first team listed is home team, bold is who we want to win, and I didn't bother with ties, but, in every game but the Jacksonville/Houston and Cleveland/Indy game, and obviously our game, ties are the best thing for us. Now, let me be clear: that's because of the math, which takes the entire conference into account, not just the Bills. Clearly KC losing is better for us, and this is the Bottom Line Thread. So really, don't pay attention to ties.): Denver vs Buffalo(Duh) +14.3 Arizona vs Kansas City +1.9 Miami vs Baltimore +0.3 San Diego vs New England +0.3 Jacksonville vs Houston +0.7 Cleveland vs Indianapolis +0.1 Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh +0.1 Feel free to take umbrage with how these games were picked(ahem, please feel free to read up on how these game were picked, BEFORE you take umbrage ). But, based on millions of simulations, these outcomes give us the best chance to make it. Edited December 4, 2014 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'd rather have Baltimore BEAT Miami to knock them down below us. I think Baltimore is flawed and will lose a game down the stretch. Miami has the Vikings & Jets to close the season and they will win those two at home. If they beat Baltimore we would have to root for NE to derail the fish off their path of 11 wins (and Miami usually plays tough at NE). I'd root for NE to lose their last 4 games but the darn Jets are in the mix. They are so bad. Bottom line for the Bills, just go 4-0 and let the chips fall. Sunday's game at Denver is basically their 1st playoff game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 So even at 10-6 they calculate only a 36% chance of advancing. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessAccepted Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'd rather have Baltimore BEAT Miami to knock them down below us. I think Baltimore is flawed and will lose a game down the stretch. Miami has the Vikings & Jets to close the season and they will win those two at home. If they beat Baltimore we would have to root for NE to derail the fish off their path of 11 wins (and Miami usually plays tough at NE). I'd root for NE to lose their last 4 games but the darn Jets are in the mix. They are so bad. Bottom line for the Bills, just go 4-0 and let the chips fall. Sunday's game at Denver is basically their 1st playoff game. I'm with you on the Ravens Phins game. The Ravens will lose again during the remaining games. However I do think that the Pats will kill the Phish when they play to make up for the loss at the start of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 I think this system accounts for the nearly asssured Tannehill, TanneFAIL. Think about it: TanneFAIL should have lost Miami the last game. TanneFAIL will probably lose games for them going forward against better teams. Hence, Baltimore losing now is better. But, yeah, it's a tough call. This is about past performance though, now that we are this far into the season, thus, it expects Miami to lose games they shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 (edited) I think this system accounts for the nearly asssured Tannehill, TanneFAIL. Think about it: TanneFAIL should have lost Miami the last game. TanneFAIL will probably lose games for them going forward against better teams. Hence, Baltimore losing now is better. But, yeah, it's a tough call. This is about past performance though, now that we are this far into the season, thus, it expects Miami to lose games they shouldn't. tannehill is a limited QB. He still misses a lot of throws and the deep ball eludes him. They are playing well as a team, but only beating the Jets by 3 who basically played the game sans the QB position was fairly weak. Ravens are better team, think they win here and Miami loses one or two more after. NE game will be a bloodletting. Edited December 5, 2014 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here's one take @SalSports: If you want easiest path for Bills to be in 6th spot after this week: Bills >> Broncos Bengals >> Steelers Cards >> Chiefs Ravens >> Fins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Here's one take @SalSports: If you want easiest path for Bills to be in 6th spot after this week: Bills >> Broncos Bengals >> Steelers Cards >> Chiefs Ravens >> Fins If all of that happens, I just might soil my undergarments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 (edited) Last year somebody asked for a "who should we root for" Bottom Line thread. It seems like once again, this will be useful. First, like last year, let me remind you that this is the Bottom Line Thread. That means that once again, I have gone here: http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html and used this as my source material. These results are produced by math, not opinion. So, if you want to have discussions about who you think will win, rather than which team winning gives the Bill the best chance to make the playoffs? This thread is not for you, and I will remind you of that as we proceed. On to the goods(first team listed is home team, bold is who we want to win, and I didn't bother with ties, but, in every game but the Jacksonville/Houston and Cleveland/Indy game, and obviously our game, ties are the best thing for us. Now, let me be clear: that's because of the math, which takes the entire conference into account, not just the Bills. Clearly KC losing is better for us, and this is the Bottom Line Thread. So really, don't pay attention to ties.): Denver vs Buffalo(Duh) +14.3 Arizona vs Kansas City +1.9 Miami vs Baltimore +0.3 San Diego vs New England +0.3 Jacksonville vs Houston +0.7 Cleveland vs Indianapolis +0.1 Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh +0.1 Feel free to take umbrage with how these games were picked(ahem, please feel free to read up on how these game were picked, BEFORE you take umbrage ). But, based on millions of simulations, these outcomes give us the best chance to make it. that's pretty much what I posted in the playoff thread, The Ravens over Miami as an alternative. barring of course the Ravens lose a few in the last 3 weeks. Edited December 5, 2014 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It is pretty simple in my opinion. If the Bills win there 3 remaining AFC games they will be in the playoffs. If they lose even one of these games they will not be in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuvtalker Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It is pretty simple in my opinion. If the Bills win there 3 remaining AFC games they will be in the playoffs. If they lose even one of these games they will not be in the playoffs. Is that a fact? I was just curious, because I didn't think that Sunday's game was a mathematical elimination game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's just so unnatural to cheer for the Patriots.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Vader Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It's just so unnatural to cheer for the Patriots.... Yeah, it makes me sick just thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Is that a fact? I was just curious, because I didn't think that Sunday's game was a mathematical elimination game... you are correct. The Bills can lose to Denver ans still be "in the hunt" the chances drop from (pure BS) 3% to .3% It's just so unnatural to cheer for the Patriots.... YES it is. The Putrids can miss the playoffs and actually help the Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I vote for the Chargers to beat NE and we win out and take division Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luxy312 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I get all of them except the Ravens/Dolphins game. If the Bills and Dolphins both won out and let's just say still didn't get to the Patriots record, the Dolphins win the tiebreaker with Buffalo. Let's say the Bills Ravens win out instead. Buffalo wins the tiebreaker over Baltimore. I know the scenario must be more complicated than that, so consider me dense. 36% chance with a 3-1 record seems crazy low to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I vote for the Chargers to beat NE and we win out and take division +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I think this system accounts for the nearly asssured Tannehill, TanneFAIL. Think about it: TanneFAIL should have lost Miami the last game. TanneFAIL will probably lose games for them going forward against better teams. Hence, Baltimore losing now is better. But, yeah, it's a tough call. This is about past performance though, now that we are this far into the season, thus, it expects Miami to lose games they shouldn't. I don't understand the hatred for Ryan. He has been very accurate, making good decisions since the first game against the Bills. He really carved our defense in the 2nd half of that game in Miami. Against the Jets, the same happened. They made great 2nd half adjustments and Tannehill was sharp. He does not have a good WR corp. Wallace is a one-trick pony like Lee Evans. Landry is a good WR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Monkeyhead Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 (edited) Here's a little something to play with for the remaining weeks http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture/predictor Edited December 6, 2014 by UncleMonkeyHead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Here's all you need to know: Bills go 4-0 and Pats* lose to San Diego Sunday night (but beat Miami), and the Bills are your AFC East champs. Now I'll go back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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