26CornerBlitz Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Three AFC division titles secured The Broncos, Colts and Patriots each captured their respective division crowns during Week 15, thus keeping the remaining AFC playoff drama for the AFC North. More AFC playoff picture: Buffalo Bills sit ninth and need lots of help The Buffalo Bills posted an improbable victory over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday and while it kept them in the playoff picture, they didn't get a ton of help from the rest of the NFL. Here's where they stand: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Finish 10-6 and let the chips fall. Do not look back at what might of been. Focus on winning double digits for the first time since...1999. Focus on the fact that the Bills had not won in Foxboro since 2000 w Flutie in OT.(this one would be like winning a playoff game to me). Focus on the D and the fact that Kiko comes back to it. Focus on the fact that there is talent everywhere and Whaley is going to get more, see Thigpen today. Focus on our new owner and the fact the Bills are here for a longtime. The Bills time is coming. May not happen this year, but they are knocking on the door. Negative Nancys fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJasper Probincrux III Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Cincy loses out, Pittsburgh wins out, We win out. Done. San Diego isn't running the table and they play KC the final week so one of them is automatically capped at 9 already. Obviously there are other more complex solutions but IMO the most likely path is what I just listed. The Ravens are basically irrelevant and any losses they accrue are gravy because 3 way ties help us. Bottom line? It's most helpful for Pittsburgh and Denver to win next week. San Francisco is also very helpful. If Pittsburgh (vs. KC) Cincinnati (vs. Denver), San Diego (@ SF) and Baltimore (@Houston), all win I think we are DOA but if at least 1 of them lose we are still alive. There's still a way to get in at 9-7 but it requires a lot of dark magic - ALL of these things would have to happen. Cleveland winning out, Baltimore losing out, Steelers losing out, San Diego losing out, Houston losing to Jacksonville, Dolphins losing to either Minnesota or NYJ. In that bizarre scenario, Cleveland would actually take out Baltimore and Pittsburgh then we'd take out Cleveland with the only head to head tie-breaker we own. Let's not do that one. In other odd tie-breaker news we'd like Green Bay and Detroit to win next week also. It helps us in "Strength of Victory" which we currently hold over Baltimore in a 3 way situation at 10-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truth on hold Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 are there scenarios where Bills win next week in Chokeland and are mathematically eliminated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Cincy loses out, Pittsburgh wins out, We win out. Done. San Diego isn't running the table and they play KC the final week so one of them is automatically capped at 9 already. Obviously there are other more complex solutions but IMO the most likely path is what I just listed. The Ravens are basically irrelevant and any losses they accrue are gravy because 3 way ties help us. Bottom line? It's most helpful for Pittsburgh and Denver to win next week. San Francisco is also very helpful. If Pittsburgh (vs. KC) Cincinnati (vs. Denver), San Diego (@ SF) and Baltimore (@Houston), all win I think we are DOA but if at least 1 of them lose we are still alive. There's still a way to get in at 9-7 but it requires a lot of dark magic - ALL of these things would have to happen. Cleveland winning out, Baltimore losing out, Steelers losing out, San Diego losing out, Houston losing to Jacksonville, Dolphins losing to either Minnesota or NYJ. In that bizarre scenario, Cleveland would actually take out Baltimore and Pittsburgh then we'd take out Cleveland with the only head to head tie-breaker we own. Let's not do that one. In other odd tie-breaker news we'd like Green Bay and Detroit to win next week also. It helps us in "Strength of Victory" which we currently hold over Baltimore in a 3 way situation at 10-6. Just as I said with my post on the previous page. Jasper I am not trying for one-ups-menship here, I am just saying that I am fully on board with your line of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJasper Probincrux III Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 are there scenarios where Bills win next week in Chokeland and are mathematically eliminated? I think if Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore and San Diego all win we're toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Nails Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 How awesome would it be if Thad Lewis started for Houston and got the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seq004 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Go Thad Lewis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) What's crazy is the NFC South. Atlanta lost and the Champion there could be 8-8 or 7-9 (gasp, 6-10)! Now, a 10-6 or 11-5 AFC team NOT getting in is a real possibilty. They need less divisions or there are always going to be years like this. Edited December 15, 2014 by ExiledInIllinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACTOBILLSFAN Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) I think if Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore and San Diego all win we're toast. It would take something like Cleveland beating Baltimore, the Vikings beating Chicago, the Bengals beating the Steelers, the Dolphins beating the Jets and the Bills winning in week 17. Edited December 15, 2014 by SACTOBILLSFAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJasper Probincrux III Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There are a number of scenarios that lead us to control our own destiny in Week 17. Keys to that. (Other than Buffalo winning) Houston over Baltimore Several combinations of wins to give us Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Baltimore. There are many combinations. Long story short, NFC North winning = good. Cleveland winning = good. Indianapolis losing = good, San Diego winning = good (oddly) It would take something like Cleveland beating Baltimore, the Vikings beating Chicago, the Bengals beating the Steelers, the Dolphins beating the Jets and the Bills winning in week 17. Nope, if if all that happened in week 17 we'd still be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Freddy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) I think if Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore and San Diego all win we're toast. This is incorrect. Even if the above teams win, the Bills are still alive going into week 17 as long as they beat Oakland. Just confirmed it using the playoff machine. In this scenario, Bills get in if they win and the Browns, Steelers and Chiefs also win in week 17. Edited December 15, 2014 by Reddy Freddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACTOBILLSFAN Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 There are a number of scenarios that lead us to control our own destiny in Week 17. Keys to that. (Other than Buffalo winning) Houston over Baltimore Several combinations of wins to give us Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Baltimore. There are many combinations. Long story short, NFC North winning = good. Cleveland winning = good. Indianapolis losing = good, San Diego winning = good (oddly) Nope, if if all that happened in week 17 we'd still be out. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/results/400554356~1~400554366~2~400554434~1~400554361~2~400554442~2~400554449~1~400554398~2~400554439~1~400554444~1~400554447~1~400554402~2~400554406~2~400554373~1~400554436~2~400554410~2~400554438~2~400554405~2~400554437~1~400554441~2~400554435~1~400554448~1~400554446~1~400554445~1~400554443~1~400554440~1~400554404~2~400554407~1~400554409~1~400554412~1~400554411~1~400554413~1 And if KC beat SD in 17. Yes. This is incorrect. Even if the above teams win, the Bills are still alive going into week 17 as long as they beat Oakland. Just confirmed it using the playoff machine. In this scenario, Bills get in if they win and the Browns, Steelers and Chiefs also win in week 17. Beat me to it. With a win there is no way for the Bills to be eliminated going into week 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronyAbounds Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Since Baltimore is the only team the Bills can actually win the tiebreakers against, it is almost essential that they lose one game (either or both Cincinnati or Pittsburgh will have 10 wins). Looking who they play, I'd say that's a tall order. Houston will have a backup playing, while Cleveland is one team with a worse QB situation than the Bills (not coincidental that the Cleveland FO is also one of the few teams that sucks worse than the Bills' front office). Both KC and SD will be dogs next week and that certainly helps since it would knock them both out of 10 win contention. Of course the problem with Cincinnati is that either the Bengals win, which is bad for the Bills, or they lose, which means the Pats will have something to play for against the Bills, which is also very bad. I'd say the Bills need to draw to an inside straight, but that would be a bit optimistic. It would be a damn shame to waste this year's defense on another non-playoff year. I disagree strongly with the thought that if the Bills get to 10-6 but don't make the playoffs it is cause to celebrate. All that means is you wasted a 10-6 year and there is no guarantee they can even match that next year. Of course, they still have to win 2 games, both of which will be tough (particularly Foxboro), so the whole point may be moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 How awesome would it be if Thad Lewis started for Houston and got the win? Go Thad Lewis! Tom Savage replaced Fitz today. Has anyone heard whether he or Thad will get the nod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJasper Probincrux III Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This is incorrect. Even if the above teams win, the Bills are still alive going into week 17 as long as they beat Oakland. Just confirmed it using the playoff machine. In this scenario, Bills get in if they win and the Browns, Steelers and Chiefs also win in week 17. You are correct, I think but it's more than just what you said. If all the teams I listed win in week 16 and what you said happens in week 17 Green Bay and Jacksonville must also win in week 17 for us to hold the tie breaker. So technically not mathematically eliminated, just mathematically really really small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 You are correct, I think but it's more than just what you said. If all the teams I listed win in week 16 and what you said happens in week 17 Green Bay and Jacksonville must also win in week 17 for us to hold the tie breaker. So technically not mathematically eliminated, just mathematically really really small. Green Bay is playing for their life now. Detroit won, Green Bay can easily miss the playoffs... I know it sounds hard to believe, but the suckitude of the NFC South is showing... GB has gotta play strong. Jacksonville I am worried about! LoL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Sorry if this was mentioned elsewhere, but... If the Bills win next week at OAK, is there any way they can still be eliminated from the playoffs? Just wondering if a win next week ensures that the finale in NE will carry some meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffwagonscircled Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yikes. That's a tall order. Actually 2 tall orders. CIN 9-4-1 plays @ DEN, @ PIT PIT 9-5 plays KC, CIN BAL 9-5 plays @ HOU, CLE KC 8-6 plays @PIT, SD SD 8-6 plays @SF, @KC BAL has an easy path to 11 wins, it seems to me. PIT plays 2 other teams on the list. So any outcome of those games hurts and helps us. If PIT loses both and stays at 9-5, then CIN gets to 10 and KC gets to 9. KC also plays 2 teams on the list. I don't think they win both, however. Only BAL doesn't play another team on the list. We want them to lose out, but that isn't likely. Yikes. kj The Ravens have no bearing on our playoff chances. The only thing we need to happen is: 1.We win out 2.Pittsburgh wins out 3.Bengals lose out 4.Chargers and Chiefs each lose one game The Ravens can win out and it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddy Freddy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) You are correct, I think but it's more than just what you said. If all the teams I listed win in week 16 and what you said happens in week 17 Green Bay and Jacksonville must also win in week 17 for us to hold the tie breaker. So technically not mathematically eliminated, just mathematically really really small. Nope. My friend, just google espn playoff machine and play with a little. Green Bay and Jax do not need to win in week 17. I wouldn't waste too much time looking at conference records, strength of schedule, etc. Let espn do it for you, and correctly at that! Edited December 15, 2014 by Reddy Freddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts