Kemp Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 The only effect of a large movement in a line is that the house risks getting middled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 (edited) The spread on the game opened flat and has moved to the Bills being 2.5 pt favorites. This is a direct result of people heavily betting on the Bills. Everytime the spread moves heavily in one direction, oddmakers stand to lose significant money. Don't be surprised if the calls significantly don't go our way this week. As a former sports bettor this is actually a very good sign for us. When this happens as long as the betting public % stay the same and a line moves there is about an 70-80% chance we will cover the -2.5 spread. Not to be a stickler, but the betting odds have absolutely no impact on what happens Sunday. Play on the field is what matters. I realize that you're speaking to the percentages, and that's fine...I just happen to be a student of applied science, so I felt compelled to comment. No, what I'm saying is that the line has no effect on the outcome of the game. It may project a statistical probability, but I can assure you the line means nothing come Sunday. You are guys are discussing very different things, I think. The odds/money on the game/shift in betting has zero effect on the game itself. The game is the game and is oblivious to betting influences---UNLESS you believe the OP and think the entire thing isn't above board. But if that's the case, the NFL is getting dangerous close to professional wrestling---or maybe boxing. (For the record I think watching professional wresting is moronic, but I like boxing. So there is my personal hypocrisy.) The shift in betting may indicate, over time, may be somewhat predictive to the outcome. It is possible professional betters know a thing of two about the matchup, so observing their behavior may tip us to what is likely to happen on Sunday. But it has no influence on what actually happens. I am of the belief that, if this pattern is indeed true, it is only predictive over time, and in general,. It probably has a very small predictive ability when you are talking about any single game. Just as most quantitative social science research can explain differences among groups, but rarely explains individual differences. So if you bet a bunch of games, every week, you may get some value out of looking at the betting shifts. But if you are interested in only this one game, then I'm thinking these data are relatively useless. Edited September 19, 2014 by The Dean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estelle Getty Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 uhmm, not to bust your conspiracy theory or anything, but right now 62% of the money is bet on the Chargers...please look it up here http://www.thespread...rt#.VBxcmPldWAg So i guess that means the refs will favor us yea I am getting weary trying to explain how sports wagering and books work on here. BOOKS DO NOT ALWAYS WANT 50-50 SPLIT ON WAGERS, THEY BET THE GAMES TOO. THE LINE MOVES BASED ON WHERE THE SHARP MONEY WILL BE< NOT THE PUBLIC. books are killing the public this year, as the majority public likes favorites, plays favorites, and the public is generaly wrong http://linemakers.sp...ore-bears-49ers Great quote from that last link "Sharp bettors who depend on weekly income from the NFL do well because they’re usually on the side the books need. Joe Public, who keeps trying to hit big-dollar 8-team parlays, have a rough time of it" Right now, the books need the Bills to cover..yes!!!!!!!! " Good sign the public betting the Chargers This is what i was alluding to the fact that the general public has their $ on san diego and the line is moving the "wrong way". All i am saying is in my experience the team that the public is betting against in this exact situation covers 70-80 % of the time. Take it for what it's worth. Not guaranteeing a Bills victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 This is what i was alluding to the fact that the general public has their $ on san diego and the line is moving the "wrong way". All i am saying is in my experience the team that the public is betting against in this exact situation covers 70-80 % of the time. Take it for what it's worth. Not guaranteeing a Bills victory. Yes of course...I didn't mean to dispute the historical correlation. Pointing out the history is informative, and I appreciate it. I only meant to dispute the idea that it was predictive of a Bills' win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I was weary of them a long time ago. And wary. LOL + 1 I'm weary of missing the playoffs, and wary anytime the Bills are favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Wow, way to go from 0 to 60 there dude I actually dont think theres that much of a difference between thinking the NFL is rigged and there being gov't conspiracies behind 9/11 and sandy hook....everyone who believes all those things are nut bags who wear tin foil hats in their houses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainwampus Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 The dead giveaway is a phantom holding call on 3rd down, either on offense or defense. The Bills usually fall victim to this vs The Pats*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchmurraydowntown Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Back-up San Diego center (who is now the starter) is injured, so I'd plan on Kyle getting intimate with Rivers several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frogger Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Saw the forecast for the weather 80% chance of rain. I believe this favors our ground game and will help us with TOP. Keep the ball out of Rivers hands and force them in 3rd and long situations, that's our M.O. why change now... Wow, just looked at the forecast...going from 110 on the field to a wet 60 degrees...that loft throw will not be easy for Rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Back-up San Diego center (who is now the starter) is injured, so I'd plan on Kyle getting intimate with Rivers several times. I read their RB is injured also??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 (edited) Women do get weary. Man he was good. Edited September 19, 2014 by chris heff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 We won a game in which the ref threw a flag in KWs face when it was tied, and then picked it up and said never mind. Bring it. Yep, first time i have ever seen a holding penalty get waived off. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 (edited) me likey that one..must be new! BTW, if you like the the Bills, grab an account at Bovada..only -1 right now. Edited September 19, 2014 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 They were pretty bad early. Then ej said he would show the refs how to throw a game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 They were pretty bad early. Then ej said he would show the refs how to throw a game Sounds about correct. I will echo what another poster said earlier in the thread, I'd rather have the replacement refs back. They were terrible but fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 3rd down, incomplete pass! FLAG! Is there any other way in today's NFL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodbuster Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 Sounds about correct. I will echo what another poster said earlier in the thread, I'd rather have the replacement refs back. They were terrible but fair. Yup. It's really hard to keep these kind of thoughts out of your mind. Maybe I'm paranoid. We had to know this was going to happen. They want the divisions close. After this weekend they had to have Denver and SD tied up, and everybody in the AFCE even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freddie's Dead Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 I'd rather get woolly with the refs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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