What if EJ Is Really Good and Stays Healthy?

[chris heff]

 

 

As one of those who's predicted Manuel's failure, I'll say this: I've been wrong before. Being wrong one additional time isn't likely to change how others see me. Nor would it change how I see myself.

 

But I'll also say this: in the past when I've been wrong, it's almost always been because things turned out worse than expected. Never or almost never because they turned out better than I thought they would.

 

I'm much more likely to be right about Manuel than I am to be wrong about him. But if I am wrong, I'll admit it like a man.

Since Kelly retired, I believe we established in another thread that at best you have been right 58%. You predicted Bledsoe would fail, but he had success prior to being a Bill, and he was at the end of his career. So I think he gets thrown out. Therefore your record is 50% right and wrong. How is it that you conclude you are more likely to be right?

[SJDK]

I hope EJ reads this stuff, I know better though. I like this kid and want to see him succeed worse than anything because everything is on his shoulders this year. HE HAS TO PULL DAT TRIGGER DOE... For &@$#£ sake don't check that f$%#£€% ball down so much. Let it fly!

[The Wiz]

I hope EJ reads this stuff, I know better though. I like this kid and want to see him succeed worse than anything because everything is on his shoulders this year. HE HAS TO PULL DAT TRIGGER DOE... For &@$#£ sake don't check that f$%#£€% ball down so much. Let it fly!

It's a double edged sword and he will lose in both scenario's.

 

Checks down = he can't or is afraid to throw the deep ball.

 

Throws deep unsuccessfully = he's not accurate.

 

If he is successful with the deep ball then he has the ability to be really good, if not great.

 

My opinion is still open on him whether he will succeed or not but I'm hoping the light goes on and he becomes the leader have been looking for.

Edited June 27, 2014 by The Wiz

[Formerly Allan in MD]

That would be nice.

 

Please end this thread as it tests the innate intelligence of any board members with innate intelligence.

 

That would be nice.

 

Please end this thread as it tests the innate intelligence of any board members with innate intelligence.

[The Wiz]

That would be nice.

 

Please end this thread as it tests the innate intelligence of any board members with innate intelligence.

 

That would be nice.

 

Please end this thread as it tests the innate intelligence of any board members with innate intelligence.

I find it ironic that you double posted when talking about intelligence.

Edited June 27, 2014 by The Wiz

[Thurmal34]

Would a line up of Mike Williams, Sammy, Woods, Goodwin and Manual or Williams, Stevie, Woods, Goodwin and Bortles ( or another one of the early drafted QB's ) feel better right now. Somehow, reading about Manuel in OTA's is making me feel GREAT about the decision we made.

When he says he Is trying to remain even keeled and not too emotional he sounds like a true, mature leader. Being able to make throws in practice is becoming pleasantly familiar.

 

I'll take the bolded for $200, Alex.

[Orton's Arm]

As one who doesn't 'predict the failure" of any players on the team, I don't understand the prediction of failure or the need to be right, or having to admit when you are wrong. But, I am glad you are willing to do that and expect the obligatory apology thread to EJ if/when the time comes However - I am not sure there is anyone who is has "predicted success" for EJ and can therefore claim they were "right." There are those who predict failure (and hope they are wrong) and those who don't know yet but have enough to go on that predicting failure is far too premature. The bottom line for me is - when will you know if you were wrong? If we make the playoffs this year? If he stays healthy and we win more than 6 games? It's only his second season, it is a work in progress. We have been waiting a long time since the 1999 season, but he has only been here 15 months. There will be times when he is good and times when he sucks this year. This is true of most NFL QBs. The pendulum will not always be swinging the same way.

 

> However - I am not sure there is anyone who is has "predicted success" for EJ and can therefore claim they were "right."

 

There was one poster who wanted the Bills to use their first round pick on Manuel, and their second round pick on either Robert Woods or the best available LB. There have been several others who expressed the view that the Bills' front office made a very good move by using a first round pick on Manuel. Granted, I don't recall anyone in this category expressing 100% certainty Manuel would succeed, any more than I expressed 100% certainty he'd fail. Nevertheless, if Manuel has a great NFL career, I'll be more than happy to say that people in this category were right about him, and that I was wrong.

 

> The bottom line for me is - when will you know if you were wrong? If we make the playoffs this year?

 

You've raised a good question. I'd initially predicted Bledsoe wouldn't be worth the first round pick we traded for him. I remember eating my words somewhere during his first eight games as a Bill. It was a premature meal! Bledsoe wasn't worth the first round pick we traded for him.

 

This time around, I intend to be a bit more cautious about eating my words--assuming such a discussion becomes necessary at all. Take a guy like Losman. During his one good year, he put up some pretty decent numbers in a very simplified offense. If Manuel does the same thing, it wouldn't necessarily make sense for me to admit to being wrong about him, any more than I was wrong in predicting failure for Losman. But if Manuel starts doing things Losman never did--reading the whole field, successfully running a complex offense, etc.--and if he does these things for a sustained amount of time, it might then be time for me to reevaluate my opinion.

[YoloinOhio]

> However - I am not sure there is anyone who is has "predicted success" for EJ and can therefore claim they were "right."

 

There was one poster who wanted the Bills to use their first round pick on Manuel, and their second round pick on either Robert Woods or the best available LB. There have been several others who expressed the view that the Bills' front office made a very good move by using a first round pick on Manuel. Granted, I don't recall anyone in this category expressing 100% certainty Manuel would succeed, any more than I expressed 100% certainty he'd fail. Nevertheless, if Manuel has a great NFL career, I'll be more than happy to say that people in this category were right about him, and that I was wrong.

 

> The bottom line for me is - when will you know if you were wrong? If we make the playoffs this year?

 

You've raised a good question. I'd initially predicted Bledsoe wouldn't be worth the first round pick we traded for him. I remember eating my words somewhere during his first eight games as a Bill. It was a premature meal! Bledsoe wasn't worth the first round pick we traded for him.

 

This time around, I intend to be a bit more cautious about eating my words--assuming such a discussion becomes necessary at all. Take a guy like Losman. During his one good year, he put up some pretty decent numbers in a very simplified offense. If Manuel does the same thing, it wouldn't necessarily make sense for me to admit to being wrong about him, any more than I was wrong in predicting failure for Losman. But if Manuel starts doing things Losman never did--reading the whole field, successfully running a complex offense, etc.--and if he does these things for a sustained amount of time, it might then be time for me to reevaluate my opinion.

Only 1?

[Orton's Arm]

Since Kelly retired, I believe we established in another thread that at best you have been right 58%. You predicted Bledsoe would fail, but he had success prior to being a Bill, and he was at the end of his career. So I think he gets thrown out. Therefore your record is 50% right and wrong. How is it that you conclude you are more likely to be right?

 

> Since Kelly retired, I believe we established in another thread that at best you have been right 58%

 

The predictions I made were as follows:

Optimistic about Rob Johnson (an error)

Predicted Drew Bledsoe wouldn't justify the first round pick we spent for him (correct prediction)

Predicted failure for Losman (correct prediction)

Optimistic about Trent Edwards (an error)

Stated Fitz would not be the long-term answer at QB (correct prediction)

 

That's a 60% success rate.

 

> You predicted Bledsoe would fail, but he had success prior to being a Bill, and he was at the end of his career. So I think he gets thrown out.

 

I don't understand your position here. We all knew Bledsoe had achieved a lot prior to becoming a Bill. But the first round pick we traded away for him wasn't to reward the Patriots for Bledsoe's past career accomplishments. It was because TD felt that Bledsoe would contribute more to the Bills than a first round pick would have. During Bledsoe's second and third years with the Bills, his yards per attempt stat was lower than Trend Edwards' career average. If Bledsoe couldn't even play at the same level as Trent Edwards, then trading away a first round pick was a mistake on TD's part. Which is exactly what I'd said when the trade was made.

 

> How is it that you conclude you are more likely to be right?

 

In the past when I've gotten burned, it's because I've given a QB too much credit, not too little. That goes for Rob Johnson, Trent Edwards, and several QBs drafted by non-Bills teams. If I'm predicting success for a QB, I have at best a 50% chance of being right. But if I'm predicting failure for a guy, the odds of me being right rise dramatically. I've been right every time I've predicted failure for a Bills' QB, and just about every time I predicted failure for a non-Bills QB.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

no matter what..... IF the Bills can't make a WC or better we;ll hear EJ is a huge failure

 

 

if we don't hear it sooner which we will (and may already have)

Edited June 28, 2014 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[machine gun kelly]

EJ is going to get three years unless he is absolutely abysmal. I'm rooting for him. As to the playoffs, it is on him, and I think we take a big jump this year.

Regarding the other QB's, Brady is Brady and he won't fall off for years. With these new rules, he almost never gets hurt. Maybe someday the Bills will get that kind of a guy in a late round pick. RT holds the ball too long (See the sacks on him against us last year), Geno was atrocious last year, and Vick went 2-4 last year, and 3-7 the year before. He's done. You can't say the Eagles were a bad team as they had their starting line, considered one of the best healthy all year, and Foles comes in with an insane QB rating.

 

He is so underrated. He'll do well again this year.

[Kirby Jackson]

If EJ is Ryan Tannehill good they should be a playoff team.

If EJ is Andy Dalton good they can win the division and/or a playoff game.

If EJ is Russell Wilson good they can win the Super Bowl.

[Maury Ballstein]

If EJ is Willie Beamon what happens ?

[The Wiz]

If EJ is Willie Beamon what happens ?

He will get replaced and Cap Rooney will start their first playoff game ala flutie/Johnson.

Edited June 29, 2014 by The Wiz

[LB3]

If EJ is Willie Beamon what happens ?

 

Mario Williams will saw his car in half?

[Deranged Rhino]

If EJ is Willie Beamon what happens ?

... He'll have an amazing music video?

[Nanker]

If he is really good and does very well, I expect a lot of name changes here at TBD.

[3rdand12]

If EJ is Willie Beamon what happens ?

cataclysmic shift in the polar axis. of course.

Obviously , i have all ways said this and that as a coach and also as a real person sometimes this is something we are working on together.

who the hell is willie beamon

[machine gun kelly]

It's a reference from "On Any Given Sunday" with Pacino. It's a famous football movie.

 

No worries my friend. It was actually a funny joke, but not at your expense.

[Deranged Rhino]

The closer we get to training camp, and the further away we get from the hype leading up to the draft and free agency, the more I think Whaley&Co have set things up perfectly for their young quarterback. The knee-jerk response to the SWAT pick (and the rest of the Bills' draft) is to presume everything now rests on EJ's shoulders but I don't think that's really the case. By virtue of the position he plays EJ will always be the hero or the goat but this team now has enough talent to win games without perfect, or even great, QB play. That alleviates pressure on the guy, giving him more slack to grow and make mistakes without costing the team wins.

 

The defense will be better this year than last, and last year's defense was pretty friggin' good. Eric-turnstile-Pears is a few weeks away from a pink slip which will be addition by subtraction. And the draft brought in some much needed beef to the O-Line helping not just the QB but CJ and FredEx as well. Of course having a true number one wide receiver, someone who will force defenses to account for him every play, will open up the running game and give CJ more lanes. With the way SWAT blocks, this running game is only going to improve from last year. That's gotta scare the rest of the league.

 

Sure, if EJ can step in and be lights out from day one that would be amazing -- but now he doesn't have to and the Bills can still contend for a division title. Some might see it as a make or break year for EJ, and I was one of those immediately after the draft, but not anymore. Barring injuries, this team is built to give EJ all the time he needs to develop at his own pace. We might see added pressure on the guy considering the roster moves but if anything it's the opposite in the locker room. It's less pressure on number 3 knowing that his defense can win games by itself, not to mention the comfort it must be to know that Marrone can deploy SWAT, CJ, Williams, Woody, Goodwin at the same time which means someone will always be open.

 

I have a good feeling about EJ this season, I'm not going to deny it. I think the guy is going open some eyes -- but he doesn't need to be Superman or even try to be. With this roster even if he doesn't improve from last year but stays healthy, the Bills are in the playoffs.

 

And that's okay by me...