TXBILLSFAN Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Here's another angle to the argument on whether the Bills will move. An NFL team in BUFFALO can make a profit. It does today. Previous threads have hashed out the cap issues and revenue sharing. To sum that up, trust me and others that making a profit gets harder as other cities build new stadiums and sell suites. Why ? Because suite sales get added to the CAP but the revenue is not shared. So, Dallas sells a suite for $32 million. The cap goes up by $500K for all teams, including the Bills. Why ? 50% of $32M is shared with players. $32M divided by 2 = $16M divided by 32 = $500K. Now, in that example, Dallas could care less, they just pocketed $32M - $500K = $31.5M profit. The Bills ? They just saw their operating cost (the cap) go up by $500K ! Given that example, a new owner will ask if he can indeed be profitable long term in Buffalo. That will depend on several factors including suite sales. It will also force that owner to run some economics. How much should I pay for a team that can make me $XM per year ? A Buffalo based owner will say $870M (or so says Forbes); an LA owner (with the potential for suite sales and higher ticket prices) might say $1.2B or more ! That brings me back to my original 3 options that WILL keep the team in Buffalo: 1- Ralph has clause in will to sell locally 2- A Buffalo based owner overpays by outbidding a California owner; i.e. Pegula is willing to pay $1.3B even though the Bills in Buffalo are only worth $870M 3- The NFL creates situation to keep team in Buffalo by blocking a new owner from relocating team or forcing estate to sell locally. I don't think #1 will happen, but we should know sooner than later. I would never bet on #3. I think #2 is possible, but a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalftimeAdjustment Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The terms of the lease also appear to prevent the Bills from engaging in talks with groups trying to get them to play elsewhere, during the no-move period. That is interesting. As far as the 6-year no move period not helping Buffalo, it can also be viewed as a 6 year window for other teams to get a jump on moving into LA and closing off that route. Toronto is a bigger problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oman128 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) The NFL could also buyout the Bills and Lions for 2 Billion. Close down the franchises and figure out some way to redistribute the players. Realign The teams into 2 conferences east and west. Cut the divisions to 3 and each division has 5 teams 3x5=15 So it like the NBA. Edited March 28, 2014 by oman128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 sometimes the blackout thing is ludicrous throwing out some figures Sold out at the Ralph is 74,000, Jax is 73,000 Miami 76,000 average attendance Ralph 66,300 89% of capacity Jacks 59,900 82% of capacity Miami 64,300 84.6% of capacity Which team has the worst attendance - % wise it's not Buffalo Is there a site you got all of that? Not calling you out or suggesting you're wrong. I was just hoping there'd be a site with all of that put together you came across. I'm curious to see places like St Louis, Houston, Tennessee, and Washington, among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 You should listen to that interview 26CornerBlitz posted above with Erie County Exec Mark Poloncarz...It's at about the 9:45 mark of the interview... To say there is a bit of disdain among the people in the know (at least the Erie County people) about Mr Bongiovi seems to be an understatement...Apparently he's part of the group from Toronto that wants to move the Bills...I had no idea what group Bon Jovi was aligned with, only that he was interested in buying a team...But it's pretty clear Poloncarz is not a big fan...I'm uncertain if he likes his music though... Ron Jaworski was partners with Bon Jovi in that arena league team. I think he has to have a talk with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The NFL could also buyout the Bills and Lions for 2 Billion. Close down the franchises and figure out some way to redistribute the players. Realign The teams into 2 conferences east and west. Cut the divisions to 3 and each division has 5 teams 3x5=15 So it like the NBA. Right, because the NFL likes to decrease revenue whenever possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keukasmallies Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) What happens next? Same as always: Fans send $ to the company then sit back and watch the company turn out a mediocre (at best) "product" for yet another year. Fans complain, threaten revolt, send more $ to same place to get same results. Yesterday is the best predictor of tomorrow at OBD. Edited March 28, 2014 by Keukasmallies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Is there a site you got all of that? Not calling you out or suggesting you're wrong. I was just hoping there'd be a site with all of that put together you came across. I'm curious to see places like St Louis, Houston, Tennessee, and Washington, among others. http://espn.go.com/nfl/attendance/_/year/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Halftime - do you have a link or more specifics to support your first statement above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'll say it again, TORONTO scares me more than LA or London ! The more I think about it, the more I see the NFL rationalizing it as an extension of the Buffalo fan base and not abandoning the Buffalo market thereby satisfying whatever conscious these guys have. The two big negatives to Toronto; (1) fan support for Bills games up there was bad and (2) Conflict with the CFL. Otherwise, they have population (TV eyeballs), Money, corporations galore for suite sales and several billionaires in wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) I'll say it again, TORONTO scares me more than LA or London ! The more I think about it, the more I see the NFL rationalizing it as an extension of the Buffalo fan base and not abandoning the Buffalo market thereby satisfying whatever conscious these guys have. The two big negatives to Toronto; (1) fan support for Bills games up there was bad and (2) Conflict with the CFL. Otherwise, they have population (TV eyeballs), Money, corporations galore for suite sales and several billionaires in wait. London will never happen. Too many logistical problems there. LA, if it gets filled, will be filled well before 2020. As for Toronto, don't think the NFL didn't notice the support, or lack thereof, for the team these past 6 years, not to mention how none of their teams outside of the Leafs sellout. And again, it would be a PR nightmare for the NFL if there is a group with the money to buy the team, and the desire to keep it in Buffalo, and they allow the sale to a group that wants to move it. Edited March 29, 2014 by Doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) I'll say it again, TORONTO scares me more than LA or London ! The more I think about it, the more I see the NFL rationalizing it as an extension of the Buffalo fan base and not abandoning the Buffalo market thereby satisfying whatever conscious these guys have. The two big negatives to Toronto; (1) fan support for Bills games up there was bad and (2) Conflict with the CFL. Otherwise, they have population (TV eyeballs), Money, corporations galore for suite sales and several billionaires in wait. It's been touched on before, but Toronto's TV market is not a US market. So the eyeballs watching there would mean very little to any sort of current TV deals the NFL has. Toronto fans living in Canada, wouldn't be watching on CBS, Fox or NBC... they also wouldn't be able to purchase the Sunday Ticket from DirectTV. So that means the only people watching games in Toronto, that would possibly count towards TV revenue, are probably already watching the Bills from the US. Unless you think more fans would tune in to watch a team because it's in Toronto. Surely, the NFL would have to work out some sort of deal with a Canadian television station. But, the logistics of that might be tricky. EDIT: So while you may think Toronto is a slam dunk, LA makes much more sense because it's not a move into a different country or non US TV market. It's simple and puts them in the 2nd largest US TV market. Edited March 28, 2014 by Wayne Cubed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) It's been touched on before, but Toronto's TV market is not a US market. So the eyeballs watching there would mean very little to any sort of current TV deals the NFL has. Toronto fans living in Canada, wouldn't be watching on CBS, Fox or NBC... they also wouldn't be able to purchase the Sunday Ticket from DirectTV. They don't need to. It is already available on the Canadian satellite TV provider Bell Express and has been for years. It is also available on multiple Canadian cable TV providers including Rogers Cable. DirectTV only has the exclusive rights in the US. SKY Mexico (Mexican satellite TV provider) also offers the Sunday Ticket. Edited March 28, 2014 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 London will never happen. Too many logistical problems there. LA, if it gets filled, will be filled well before 2020. As for Toronto, don't think the NFL didn't notice the support, or lack thereof, for the team these past 6 years, not to mention how none of their teams outside of the Leafs sellout. And again, it would be a PR nightmare for the NFL if there is a group with the money to buy the team, and the desire to keep it in Buffalo. Yea but the team might be gone by 2020 with their track record. Was listening to GR this morning and Schumer made a point that I had not thought of. The Toronto series, as much as we all hate it, really does help keep the bills in Buffalo. The series is scheduled until 2017 so any prospective buyers will need to know that if they buy the team and plan on moving, they will have to find a way out of that contract as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) They don't need to. It is already available on the Canadian satellite TV provider Bell Express and has been for years. It is also available on multiple Canadian cable TV providers including Rogers Cable. DirectTV only has the exclusive rights in the US. SKY Mexico (Mexican satellite TV provider) also offers the Sunday Ticket. I'm aware that the NFL has deals elsewhere. Hell they have their own outside the US in GamePass. My point with regards to the deals they have in the US is they are much much greater than those anywhere else. DirecTV extended it's deal for $4 billion. NBC, CBS and Fox just extended theirs for $27 billion. The biggest contracts and eyes are here in the US. EDIT: Also the Canadian regulations make it impossible for the NFL to make exclusive deals with any of the providers. And my point is the NFL, IMO, would probably rather be in the 2nd largest TV market in North America in Los Angeles as they already have huge deals with TV stations. I'm sure those TV stations would prefer them in LA as well. Edited March 28, 2014 by Wayne Cubed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I'm aware that the NFL has deals elsewhere. Hell they have their own outside the US in GamePass. My point with regards to the deals they have in the US is they are much much greater than those anywhere else. DirecTV extended it's deal for $4 billion. NBC, CBS and Fox just extended theirs for $27 billion. The biggest contracts and eyes are here in the US. EDIT: Also the Canadian regulations make it impossible for the NFL to make exclusive deals with any of the providers. Makes perfect sense due to the fact that very few people outside of the US (and maybe Canada) give a rats ass about tackle football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Makes perfect sense due to the fact that very few people outside of the US (and maybe Canada) give a rats ass about tackle football. It sure does, hence why I was saying I would think the NFL would prefer a team if it's going to move, to move to LA the 2nd largest market in North America, even if it's the Bills. I'm also sure the US TV stations would prefer it too, more viewers, more money etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 http://espn.go.com/n...nce/_/year/2013 I don't know if I value that information and those stats. How on Earth did 9 teams sell seats over 100%? Is it quite simply that? They sold 10% more seats to the games and hoped 10% wouldn't show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) I don't know if I value that information and those stats. How on Earth did 9 teams sell seats over 100%? Is it quite simply that? They sold 10% more seats to the games and hoped 10% wouldn't show up? Not sure about the others, but I believe Dallas has a standing room section which could be counted as higher attendance than seating capacity. Edited March 28, 2014 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 (edited) I don't know if I value that information and those stats. How on Earth did 9 teams sell seats over 100%? Is it quite simply that? They sold 10% more seats to the games and hoped 10% wouldn't show up? definitely not an oversell - i know dallas has the party deck thats standing room only... things like that are likely part of it. maybe some of the suite space, or super premium on field type of seats at stadiums too? Edited March 28, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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