Piling On - A response to the Draft Experts

[30dive]

As someone who has not sipped the Kool Aid and has been highly critical of the brain trust at 1 Bills Drive over the last decade. I find your carbon copied critique of this years Bills draft amusing if not redundant.

 

While we will not know the success or failings of EJ Manuel for a few years, the Bills seem to have gotten their guy. Look at the truths, the Bills have not taken a QB, as their first draft selection since the old AFL days when they selected as their regional pick a QB from Penn State in, I think, 1964. Yes there have been two other QB's selected in the first round of the draft, one not so good and the other a Hall of Fame pick. The Hall of Fame pick, Jim Kelly, was selected with their second pick of the first round after they had earlier selected TE Tony Hunter from Notre Dame. The other was JP Losseman, who they traded up for to get a second bite at the first round. With that said, their failings over the last decade are too numerous to mention and go well beyond the work they do the third week in April. It seems pretty clear that the Bills have never put a whole lot of thought into selecting as their first pick, a QB, and it has shown in the record books.

 

Now fast forward to 2013, the Bills traded back to get an additional pick in the second round and, as mentioned earlier they also got their QB. Would he have been available in the second? Based on the results of the draft, possibly, but the Bills wanted this guy and it seems reasonable to me that they would select him at 16 after getting that additional pick. Again truths, beyond the workouts at 1 Bills Drive of all of the "top Flight" QB's, the Bills new Head Coach Doug Marone had probably more game experience with three of most mentioned QB's available in this years draft. First Nassib, by all accounts this was the dream set up for the Bills, but apparently not the dream of coach Marone, do you think if he honestly felt "his" QB was the best, he would not have selected him? He knew Geno Smith pretty well too, "his" QB beat Mr. Smith 3 times and based on what we are hearing about that guy, well, congratulations J-E-T-S! Now Matt Barkley, a kid I thought would have been a nice pick for the Bills, as I think his final season was not a fair representation of his entire body of work at USC. But Coach Marone saw him in action too, and while Barkley and his USC team beat Mr. Marone's Orange last fall, he was clearly outplayed by Nassib.

 

Now I think your primary point was they took him too early, again fair, and if they took him at 8 I would be singing with you, but to get the additional second round pick, to get the QB you wanted, and to keep West Virginia Wide Receiver Tavon Austin out of hands of the NY Jets proved to show something the Bills have not shown in very long time, smarts!

 

Thanks for your concern about the Bills, now maybe, just maybe I will go pour myself a tall glass of Kool Aid, it has been a very long time.

[KDIGGZ]

I agree. I wasn't 100% sold on Manuel, but the fact that the coaches/scouts brought in every single QB available in the draft and decided on this guy above all others, then we just have to trust that they did their job and got the best guy. Maybe they saw something that we didn't. And not only did they get the guy they wanted but they got two extra picks which will resulted in grabbing a new starting LB. The icing on the cake was keeping Austin out of a Jets uniform. I laugh when I see the "experts" on espn say Manuel would have been there for the Bills at 41. How the heck do they know? I have a feeling the Eagles would have grabbed him at the top of the 2nd as was projected. One more trade down to the end of the 1st would have been nice but the front office guys probably weren't in a gambling mood. Oh well, if they did their job then we got the best QB in the draft so we will see what happens

[xsoldier54]

Most of these guys have not clue. The guys that I respect like Gil Brandt and Mike Mayock loved the pick. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have zero credibility as they base their draft grades on whether or not teams picked guys where they had them rated. So if a team's scouting department and front office disagree with these two "experts" then they get a poor grade. Look at these guys track records. It is a wonder anyone still listens to them or reads what they have to say.

[Green Lightning]

Screw the lot of them. Time to play ball. Winning games is the only cure for what ails us and for shutting the pie holes of the media.

[bladiebla]

You know what, there is no disproving them other then have the future prove them wrong.

[Fan in San Diego]

I agree. I wasn't 100% sold on Manuel, but the fact that the coaches/scouts brought in every single QB available in the draft and decided on this guy above all others, then we just have to trust that they did their job and got the best guy. Maybe they saw something that we didn't. And not only did they get the guy they wanted but they got two extra picks which will resulted in grabbing a new starting LB. The icing on the cake was keeping Austin out of a Jets uniform. I laugh when I see the "experts" on espn say Manuel would have been there for the Bills at 41. How the heck do they know? I have a feeling the Eagles would have grabbed him at the top of the 2nd as was projected. One more trade down to the end of the 1st would have been nice but the front office guys probably weren't in a gambling mood. Oh well, if they did their job then we got the best QB in the draft so we will see what happens

 

+1

[XXL Franchize]

Kirt Warner said it best.....this is not an exact quote but it was something like....Whether you think EJ Manuel is the right guy is a whole different conversation, you still have to give the Bills credit for the way they maneuvered in the draft and they got they guy they targeted.

[chris heff]

As someone who has not sipped the Kool Aid and has been highly critical of the brain trust at 1 Bills Drive over the last decade. I find your carbon copied critique of this years Bills draft amusing if not redundant.

 

While we will not know the success or failings of EJ Manuel for a few years, the Bills seem to have gotten their guy. Look at the truths, the Bills have not taken a QB, as their first draft selection since the old AFL days when they selected as their regional pick a QB from Penn State in, I think, 1964. Yes there have been two other QB's selected in the first round of the draft, one not so good and the other a Hall of Fame pick. The Hall of Fame pick, Jim Kelly, was selected with their second pick of the first round after they had earlier selected TE Tony Hunter from Notre Dame. The other was JP Losseman, who they traded up for to get a second bite at the first round. With that said, their failings over the last decade are too numerous to mention and go well beyond the work they do the third week in April. It seems pretty clear that the Bills have never put a whole lot of thought into selecting as their first pick, a QB, and it has shown in the record books.

 

Now fast forward to 2013, the Bills traded back to get an additional pick in the second round and, as mentioned earlier they also got their QB. Would he have been available in the second? Based on the results of the draft, possibly, but the Bills wanted this guy and it seems reasonable to me that they would select him at 16 after getting that additional pick. Again truths, beyond the workouts at 1 Bills Drive of all of the "top Flight" QB's, the Bills new Head Coach Doug Marone had probably more game experience with three of most mentioned QB's available in this years draft. First Nassib, by all accounts this was the dream set up for the Bills, but apparently not the dream of coach Marone, do you think if he honestly felt "his" QB was the best, he would not have selected him? He knew Geno Smith pretty well too, "his" QB beat Mr. Smith 3 times and based on what we are hearing about that guy, well, congratulations J-E-T-S! Now Matt Barkley, a kid I thought would have been a nice pick for the Bills, as I think his final season was not a fair representation of his entire body of work at USC. But Coach Marone saw him in action too, and while Barkley and his USC team beat Mr. Marone's Orange last fall, he was clearly outplayed by Nassib.

 

Now I think your primary point was they took him too early, again fair, and if they took him at 8 I would be singing with you, but to get the additional second round pick, to get the QB you wanted, and to keep West Virginia Wide Receiver Tavon Austin out of hands of the NY Jets proved to show something the Bills have not shown in very long time, smarts!

 

Thanks for your concern about the Bills, now maybe, just maybe I will go pour myself a tall glass of Kool Aid, it has been a very long time.

I've been wanting to write exactly this for a week. If there is a QB you want and need mid to later in the first round is the place. You don't over pay and you have the option for a fifth year.

[The Big Cat]

The Bills didn't use their first pick on EJ Manuel.

 

They used their first pick on EJ Manuel, Kiko Alonso and Chris Gragg.

 

Why is nobody framing their so-called "analysis" thusly?

[Nanker]

The Bills didn't use their first pick on EJ Manuel.

 

They used their first pick on EJ Manuel, Kiko Alonso and Chris Gragg.

 

Why is nobody framing their so-called "analysis" thusly?

Because the "experts" "knew" better. They "knew" EJ would be available in the 10th round because absolutely nobody else wanted him. They "knew" Philly and the JESTS would pass on him in the 1st and 2nd rounds as evidenced by the fact that NO OTHER QB was taken - except Geno who the JESTS coveted. They knew the JESTS would NEVER pick EJ over Geno. They knew it before the Draft, during the Draft, and they sure as hell know it now after the Draft.

 

Furthermore, it pizzes them off to no end that their wisdom and mental machinations are lost on the dunderheads at OBD who have been ignoring their sage advice for well, forever.

Edited May 3, 2013 by Nanker

[RevWarRifleman]

Screw the lot of them. Time to play ball. Winning games is the only cure for what ails us and for shutting the pie holes of the media.

Agree. And well put, too.

[BillsFanM.D.]

The Bills didn't use their first pick on EJ Manuel.

 

They used their first pick on EJ Manuel, Kiko Alonso and Chris Gragg.

 

Why is nobody framing their so-called "analysis" thusly?

 

Solid point.

[Koufax]

Now I think your primary point was they took him too early, again fair, and if they took him at 8 I would be singing with you, but to get the additional second round pick, to get the QB you wanted, and to keep West Virginia Wide Receiver Tavon Austin out of hands of the NY Jets proved to show something the Bills have not shown in very long time, smarts!

 

Exactly. Taking him at #1 would have been silly. Taking him in the second round is fine if you think he has a chance to be your guy.

 

In between, taking him #8 is closer in nature to that #1 than it is to the second round. I would argue that #16 is a lot like #30 in that all blue chip performers are gone, and you are adding in either some limits or some risk. If we could have traded down again that would have been nice, but letting him get to Philadelphia hoping he slides to #41 would have been silly if you really like him, and also taking the chance that a team moves ahead of you if you somehow got to #25 or so just isn't worth the risk.

 

Trading down for an extra quality pick AND getting your top QB in the second half of the first round is completely fine outcome to me. Maybe there was a more profitable poker game to play and still get your guy, but you sure feel like an idiot if you misread the tea leaves and end up with your second favorite QB instead of your top guy.

 

So there are two arguments against what happened:

1) REACH: Nobody else thought EJ was the top QB and he would have lasted until the 3rd round and you should have waited for him at #41 if you couldn't trade down a little further in round 1 (if anybody would take him in the second they would also consider trading up a little to get him and must really like him afterall). This seems pretty impossible to tell and again is a dumb strategy if there is a real risk you miss out on your guy.

 

2) WORHTLESS: He is not going to be a good QB, and you shouldn't pick him ahead of the other guys. Only time will tell here, but that means you are calling out the Bills scouting on their evaluations and QB projections. Could be true, but I don't see a strong enough argument in its favor to decide so emphatically and risk looking like an idiot if he pans out.

 

It will take a little patience, but I am optimistic that he can improve on the decision making part of the game that is so crucial to go with good arm strength, mobility, accuracy, and leadership. Only time will tell, and if it were a certainty he wouldn't even have fallen to #8 with his physical tools, but I am happy to have him. I will keep an eye on Geno and Barkley (Nassib falls into the Mallett won't know anytime soon category), but I like our chances.

[Astrobot]

I loved the pick. I expressed as much to Cole Muzio of Breitbart Sports when I returned from our DraftTek live mock and celebration in Las Vegas. This guy will become great. Count on it.

[turftoe]

I totally tune out when the snotty nosed Mcshay starts talking. Did Toddie boy mention that he had Jevon Snead as a first rounder? The guy went undrafted and never played a down. EJ Manuel has the highest upside of any QB in this draft. He was obviously the bills top QB and in my opinion worth being picked where he was. Both Mel and Toddie boy will look even stupider (if that is possible) when EJ takes hits his stride.

[OldTimer1960]

If the Bills were going to take a chance on a QB in this draft, then I think Manuel was a very good option.

 

Things we know about Manuel:

1. Big

2. Fast

3. Strong arm

4. Intelligent (graduated in Dec 2011 while playing D1 college ball is quite an accomplishment; has started his Masters degree)

 

Things reported about Manuel:

1. He was a good leader at FSU

2. He "gets it", has a very good attitude & work ethic

 

Things we don't know:

1. Will he be able to process what he sees and make the very quick decisions that he will need to in order to have success in the NFL?

2. Can he improve his mechanics and accuracy? (He hit a high percentage of his passes, but was reportedly a little wild when he didn't set up properly).

 

Seems to me, that he has a lot of the right skills. Regarding the "things we don't know", almost all QBs entering the NFL from college have the same question as #1.

[Gray Beard]

This organization has made good picks in the first round for the past three years. In hindsight maybe they weren't the best possible, but they were certainly good picks nonetheless. Why doubt them now?

[mrags]

Kirt Warner said it best.....this is not an exact quote but it was something like....Whether you think EJ Manuel is the right guy is a whole different conversation, you still have to give the Bills credit for the way they maneuvered in the draft and they got they guy they targeted.

however, during the draft, he was yelling that we made a mistake and could have had Geno Smith or Barkley in the 2nd. He was pretty positive that we reached for Manuel.

 

Wonder where you saw/heard this, because on draft day his opinion was the exact opposite.

[H2o]

however, during the draft, he was yelling that we made a mistake and could have had Geno Smith or Barkley in the 2nd. He was pretty positive that we reached for Manuel.

 

Wonder where you saw/heard this, because on draft day his opinion was the exact opposite.

 

The root of Kurt's real issue with Manuel? Leon Sandcastle told him that Manuel was a better dancer than him.

 

Also, watch the video that is linked to EJ Manuel and you will see Kurt Warner's real response.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position

Edited May 4, 2013 by H2o

[KeisterHollow]

The Bills didn't use their first pick on EJ Manuel.

 

They used their first pick on EJ Manuel, Kiko Alonso and Chris Gragg.

 

Why is nobody framing their so-called "analysis" thusly?

 

That is an excellent way to put it - and accurate. I've been saying since after the draft, I think Kiko is going to be a beast, and the best LB we've had since Cowhert or Spikes. That's just icing on the cake, though - if Manuel is even top 16 QB's in the league, or if Manuel can take us regularly to 9 or more wins, then his pick is justified over and over. Heck, if Kiko ends up a pro-bowl LB, then the pick is justified, even if Manuel stinks it up. We had a need at LB, and who would have faulted Buffalo, at the time, if they'd of taken Ogletree or Jones with the 16th pick?

 

It's going to end up being an amazing pick - and the draft as a whole, UDFA included, is going to be the turning point for this team. We are no longer the Bills of the past 20 years. This is a NEW team, and I can't wait to see these guys play!