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Will any QB go in the first round?


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Mods feel free to merge this, I couldn't really decide where this belonged.

 

With the top teams in the draft all needing QB help and the QB class this year less than stellar, nearly every team has made a move to improve their depth chart.

 

KC - Traded two 2nd round picks for Alex Smith

Jacksonville- Chad Henne still on roster

Oakland -Traded for Flynn

Eagles - Vick restructured

Browns -Weeden and Campbell

Cards- Palmer, Stanton

Bills - Kolb

Jets - Garrard signed.

 

This tells me a lot about the cast of characters in the draft at QB. Buddy Nix said it himself, this is a bad year to need a QB. With every team taking a measure to sign somebody, anybody with experience/ success before the draft, I think we will see a free fall of all the top QB prospects, possibly all the way into the second round (baring trades of course)

 

Thoughts?

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Absolutely, a QB will go in the first round.

 

Given the reduced salary for rookies, the 4-year contract, the premium on the position, and the increased rate of injuries in the league, there's almost no chance that 32 draft picks go by without a QB coming off the board.

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I could see any of those teams (except maybe Oakland or KC) taking Geno Smith in the first round, if they have a chance.

 

^

This.

Each of the QB-weak teams above us, and also the JESTS could use a developmental QB. That's not to mention Seattle and the 49ers who are waffah-theen at QB backup. I look for them to do a Patsie* type of thing - grab a prospect to develop/groom for trading later. Philly made out pretty well by trading Kolb. In retrospect, The Bills probably did too by not paying the ransom for him that AZ did.

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IMHO, I think these teams don't think highly of this year's QB draft class compared to Luck and RGIII, but this group does have some positives. I believe these teams will draft one but they have put themselves in a position to have an insurance policy while grooming the rookie. I don't feel this group would be first year starters. Hence the the signing of Palmer, Flynn, Kolb, etc. I could be completely way off base here. Could be a lot of smoke screens going on too. Who knows what they're smoking?

 

I'm not familiar with the crop that's expected in 2014 and which team might be looking to the future, while riding the mediocre QB bandwagon this year. The draft is a crap shoot for the most part. Look at the busts from first round picks and the late round gems. The draft is like a box of chocolates! I think Forrest Gump was on to something here. Roll the dice Buddy!

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Do we really even have Kolb? It's been 3-4 days since it was "sort of announced", and still no official announcement. I don't think I've ever seen another FA signing situation like this.

 

I'd say there's still a 50% Bills draft a QB in the first round, even with Kolb.

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I stand by my original prediction of 5. I'm wary of it, but I think you will see a lot of trading up from teams in the top 10 of the second round moving up to the back half of the first round. Regardless, by the 12th pick in the 2nd round, I expect the following to be gone:

 

Geno

Barkley

Manuel

Nassib

Bray or Glennon

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The Jags could have a fairly potent offense if they picked up a great QB. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts at WR, Jones-Drew at RB (assuming he's healthy)...

 

Granted, their D is dreadful and they may give Gabbert another year, but I can see Geno going at 2.

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I stand by my original prediction of 5. I'm wary of it, but I think you will see a lot of trading up from teams in the top 10 of the second round moving up to the back half of the first round. Regardless, by the 12th pick in the 2nd round, I expect the following to be gone:

 

Geno

Barkley

Manuel

Nassib

Bray or Glennon

I think it will be more like 4 as it wouldn't surprise me at all to see teams reaching for that proverbial "franchise" QB.

 

I see the Jets taking Geno Smith if he falls to them.

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At least 3 will go in the 1st round. At least 1 will go in the top 5.

 

I also feel that a team will trade up to #1 or #2 and get a QB there.

 

I still peg 2-3, wouldn't be shocked at 4 but surprised

 

Kolb does nothing to preclude a qb pick

Palmer is old enough you can pull the trigger and let a kid sit 1-2 years if he's playing well (but have an option to not waste Fitzgerald if Palmer is shaky). The jets at 9.

 

And don't forget about trade ups to the first round to get "your guy" and an extra year on the contract

 

As someone else mentioned, you can't even rule out Seattle or SF at the bottom of the round as a rookie getting a 4 year deal for 5m total is cheaper than a guy like thigpen

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I think one or two of those teams will take a QB if a guy they like is available, but my guess is they don't value them highly enough to make a big trade to move up in the draft. So signing a journeyman QB is an insurance policy to avoid feeling forced into taking someone just for the sake of taking someone. I would still expect at least 2 or 3 QBs taken in the first, and I would be surprised to see Smith/Barkley still there after the first 15.

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This tells me a lot about the cast of characters in the draft at QB. Buddy Nix said it himself, this is a bad year to need a QB. With every team taking a measure to sign somebody, anybody with experience/ success before the draft, I think we will see a free fall of all the top QB prospects, possibly all the way into the second round (baring trades of course)

 

Thoughts?

 

Even in a weak class such as 2009, there are usually at least 2 QB drafted in the 1st

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