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RD 3, Pick #69: WR TJ Graham - NC State


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Actually I'm basing my opinion of Graham mostly on his highlights which don't really impress me. Then you throw in the trade up aspect and that dampens it for me a bit more.

 

Im not condemning the pick… just not enthused.

 

Love the Brooks pick though!

 

 

Yup, there was nothing in the highlights that popped out. But who knows, the kid played big in a big bowl game and then had a stellar Senior Bowl week.

 

I moved these quotes from the Brooks thread to stay on topic...

 

That being said, the main thing to focus on when watching tape of Graham is how often he gets by the defense. Even when the Qb doesn't hit him, he is still getting past the 2nd and 3rd levels, and is a guy that runs HARD upfield. Defenses MUST respect this, and the moment they don't, they will pay dearly.

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I still think that Graham was a bad pick, especially after re-watching the Nix/Gailey day 2 press conference. Just about every positive thing they say is a new way of restating, "he's fast," and they openly acknowledge a few question marks. Based on their own description, Graham strikes me as a smaller, weaker Lee Evans with worse hands. If Evans was allegedly a bad fit for Gailey's offense, it's hard for me to imagine how Graham will be a good fit, but then again, Gailey does like the guy. Personally, I think that Nix and especially Gailey fell in love with Graham's speed on tape and talked themselves into overlooking everything else about him. Graham will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong, but he's my pick for most likely to bust out of this draft class.

 

Keep in mind also that if you go back to Nix's off-season quotes about the kinds of players they wanted to acquire, Williams and Anderson very much fit the mold of pass-rushers he was talking about. Cordy Glenn very much fits the mold of the kind of LT he's talked up. Stephon Gilmore fits the profile of the kind of CB he wants. But as for WR, his comments were mostly about getting a guy who's big *and* fast, basically a guy to win jump balls. Graham doesn't come close to filling that bill. Again, his comp is probably closer to Lee Evans than any other receiver we've had under Nix/Gailey, except Evans himself. I definitely get the vibe that Gailey is much more into Graham as a prospect than Nix is.

 

Having said all that, Graham still could easily be an upgrade over Donald Jones or David Clowney or Brad Smith or Derek Hagan or whoever's spot he'd be taking in spread sets, so even if I'm right, it's not necessarily a wasted pick.

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Evans might have been a bad fit for many different reasons besides what seems apparent. I would have you consider that he might have been burned out from being on a losing team with no hope for such a long time. He was no longer thrilled to risk his health for a pass that ended in the loss column. we got a new guy with a new attitude and a wiser coaching staff ( i hope) that realizes a young Lee Evans is not a bad thing at all.

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I moved these quotes from the Brooks thread to stay on topic...

 

That being said, the main thing to focus on when watching tape of Graham is how often he gets by the defense. Even when the Qb doesn't hit him, he is still getting past the 2nd and 3rd levels, and is a guy that runs HARD upfield. Defenses MUST respect this, and the moment they don't, they will pay dearly.

I suspect that Graham's not as bad a pick as everyone might think. I'm just having a hard time getting enthused about the pick, in contrast to my feelings about most of their other selections.

 

Yeah, it should & more than a bit IMO. He's got to fix that especially if he's involved in the PR unit.

FWIW, only 3 of those fumbles were lost. Naturally fumbles lost is based on luck and is less important than the actual number of fumbles.

 

I still think that Graham was a bad pick, especially after re-watching the Nix/Gailey day 2 press conference. Just about every positive thing they say is a new way of restating, "he's fast," and they openly acknowledge a few question marks. Based on their own description, Graham strikes me as a smaller, weaker Lee Evans with worse hands. If Evans was allegedly a bad fit for Gailey's offense, it's hard for me to imagine how Graham will be a good fit, but then again, Gailey does like the guy. Personally, I think that Nix and especially Gailey fell in love with Graham's speed on tape and talked themselves into overlooking everything else about him. Graham will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong, but he's my pick for most likely to bust out of this draft class.

 

Keep in mind also that if you go back to Nix's off-season quotes about the kinds of players they wanted to acquire, Williams and Anderson very much fit the mold of pass-rushers he was talking about. Cordy Glenn very much fits the mold of the kind of LT he's talked up. Stephon Gilmore fits the profile of the kind of CB he wants. But as for WR, his comments were mostly about getting a guy who's big *and* fast, basically a guy to win jump balls. Graham doesn't come close to filling that bill. Again, his comp is probably closer to Lee Evans than any other receiver we've had under Nix/Gailey, except Evans himself. I definitely get the vibe that Gailey is much more into Graham as a prospect than Nix is.

 

Having said all that, Graham still could easily be an upgrade over Donald Jones or David Clowney or Brad Smith or Derek Hagan or whoever's spot he'd be taking in spread sets, so even if I'm right, it's not necessarily a wasted pick.

The one main apparent difference between Evans and Graham is that Graham seems to have much better run-after-the-catch ability than Lee.

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We have been over this ad nauseum here and I don't want to revisit the arguments, but I heard from reliable sources that trading Evans was not NIx's or Gailey's original idea. There is no reason to believe he wasnt a fit in the offense. I do believe that Nix and Gailey preferred a big, fast #2 opposite Stevie but fast was far more important than big. They needed to stretch the field and make teams pay for taking away our short passing lanes.

 

I thinks it's almost inarguable once they traded up to get an Evans clone to play outside opposite SJ.

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I suspect that Graham's not as bad a pick as everyone might think. I'm just having a hard time getting enthused about the pick, in contrast to my feelings about most of their other selections.

 

 

FWIW, only 3 of those fumbles were lost. Naturally fumbles lost is based on luck and is less important than the actual number of fumbles.

 

 

The one main apparent difference between Evans and Graham is that Graham seems to have much better run-after-the-catch ability than Lee.

I think the last note is the big difference in why lee was expendable to Chan while tj was a target. Being a bit more physical, willing in traffic etc.... We never saw a ton of that from lee. Never got if it was ability or desire or scheme....

 

He did it some, just not with regularity

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I suspect that Graham's not as bad a pick as everyone might think. I'm just having a hard time getting enthused about the pick, in contrast to my feelings about most of their other selections.

Yeah, I hear you. He seems like the least polished of the top 5 picks (from a route running, WR experience level). Hopefully he'll be easy to coach up and can find ways to get off the line against press coverage. His small hands/fumbling experience are a worry as well.

 

Still, his return skills are something that would be valuable if Chan decides to let him have some reps there. That 103-yard kickoff return video I posted is electric...

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What T.J. Graham brings to the table is options. Options that benefit the offense because he's an instant deep threat and will keep opposing secondaries from cheating up. If you re-watch any of the film from the second half of last year, secondaries had absolutely no respect for us deep and they cheated up like crazy. This left precious little room and it part of the reason that Fitz threw so many picks.

 

The Bills have legitimate threats at RB and they should be an even better running team this year. They certianly have the size necessary to absolutely maul opposing D lines. I'd anticipate you'll see Graham and Stevie in on a fair amount of bubble screens but where he'll make his money is on play action. The slightest hesitation or pause by a DB due to play action and Graham is going to have 5 steps on them.

 

Whether or not Fitz can actually hit him is another story........

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I still think that Graham was a bad pick, especially after re-watching the Nix/Gailey day 2 press conference. Just about every positive thing they say is a new way of restating, "he's fast," and they openly acknowledge a few question marks. Based on their own description, Graham strikes me as a smaller, weaker Lee Evans with worse hands. If Evans was allegedly a bad fit for Gailey's offense, it's hard for me to imagine how Graham will be a good fit, but then again, Gailey does like the guy. Personally, I think that Nix and especially Gailey fell in love with Graham's speed on tape and talked themselves into overlooking everything else about him. Graham will have plenty of chances to prove me wrong, but he's my pick for most likely to bust out of this draft class.

 

Keep in mind also that if you go back to Nix's off-season quotes about the kinds of players they wanted to acquire, Williams and Anderson very much fit the mold of pass-rushers he was talking about. Cordy Glenn very much fits the mold of the kind of LT he's talked up. Stephon Gilmore fits the profile of the kind of CB he wants. But as for WR, his comments were mostly about getting a guy who's big *and* fast, basically a guy to win jump balls. Graham doesn't come close to filling that bill. Again, his comp is probably closer to Lee Evans than any other receiver we've had under Nix/Gailey, except Evans himself. I definitely get the vibe that Gailey is much more into Graham as a prospect than Nix is.

 

Having said all that, Graham still could easily be an upgrade over Donald Jones or David Clowney or Brad Smith or Derek Hagan or whoever's spot he'd be taking in spread sets, so even if I'm right, it's not necessarily a wasted pick.

The deal with a deep threat is that it really has to be a threat. There was a huge difference between Bob Hayes and Dwight Stone "Hands", though both were world class sprinters. Last year's passing attack featured getting the ball out of Fitzpatrick's hand in a heartbeat or less. Given that, even if Graham can catch, how often are they going to 7 step, pat the ball and launch a cruise missile down the hashes anyway?

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The more I read and hear about the pick, the more it seems that Buddy and Chan definitely got "their guy." Some fans are upset because they didn't get "their guy." I remember a lot of clamoring to trade up for Randle (ironic to note that doing so would probably have cost one of the picks that got us Bradham, Brooks, Sanders, and Carder). Anyways, TJ was the guy they were targeting in the 3rd round and they got him.

 

From what I've read/heard, they dig his speed, specifically as it relates to running after the catch. Don't expect this guy to only catch 50 yard throws. Anyways, I will be waiting to judge the pick until I actually see him play in the offense. Time will tell if Buddy or the pundits had the right grade on this guy. But right now, for me its enough that TJ was their man and they got him.

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The more I read and hear about the pick, the more it seems that Buddy and Chan definitely got "their guy." Some fans are upset because they didn't get "their guy." I remember a lot of clamoring to trade up for Randle (ironic to note that doing so would probably have cost one of the picks that got us Bradham, Brooks, Sanders, and Carder). Anyways, TJ was the guy they were targeting in the 3rd round and they got him.

 

From what I've read/heard, they dig his speed, specifically as it relates to running after the catch. Don't expect this guy to only catch 50 yard throws. Anyways, I will be waiting to judge the pick until I actually see him play in the offense. Time will tell if Buddy or the pundits had the right grade on this guy. But right now, for me its enough that TJ was their man and they got him.

To me their "guy" is good kid, great work ethic, hard worker, team guy, captain type, self-starter, etc.

 

The things you mentioned, while I agree they like that and want that, when I heard them mention it it seemed to be more of "he does a little of this and a little of that" and not that he is dynamic after the catch. They did very much like that he immediately turned upfield and went north and south and didnt run out of bounds though.

Edited by Kelly the Dog
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I actually thought his highlights were impressive. He got by his man routinely. Saw 3 pass interence penalties in 3 games where his man had to grab him or he wouldve had a TD. His 85 yard TD against Cincy was Victor Cruz-like against the Jets. He didn't look that strong but also didn't shy away from contact either. Also not as small as I thought he'd be. If he gains a little strength, guy could be a dynamic receiver.

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I know we keep hearing lee or roscoe as the benchmarks but (atleast on field) the comparison to a player in the league is kind of santonio Holmes maybe? Definitely would need a lot of polish, but a little undersized, can play outside, explosive deep but can work underneath. I haven't see a ton of him yet though, so maybe that's a bad broad strokes comparison.

 

Obviously he would need to work hard to fulfill a comparison like that. One big perk being that he isn't an ***.

 

Maybe even a mike Wallace? Both pittsburgh picks that maybe whaley had ties to scouting? Just thinking outloud on the skillset and where it came from (not the big guy you hear nix talk about)

Edited by NoSaint
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I know we keep hearing lee or roscoe as the benchmarks but (atleast on field) the comparison to a player in the league is kind of santonio Holmes maybe? Definitely would need a lot of polish, but a little undersized, can play outside, explosive deep but can work underneath. I haven't see a ton of him yet though, so maybe that's a bad broad strokes comparison.

 

Obviously he would need to work hard to fulfill a comparison like that. One big perk being that he isn't an ***.

 

Maybe even a mike Wallace? Both pittsburgh picks that maybe whaley had ties to scouting? Just thinking outloud on the skillset and where it came from (not the big guy you hear nix talk about)

Was thinking Wallace or Denarious Moore, obviously that's hopeful, but skillset and size seem comparable.

Edited by Carey Bender
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He's not really what I was hoping for in a WR in this draft. I wanted Floyd. I still think we need the big guy that go up in a crowd and come down with the football. But, it looks we aren't going to have that this year.

 

But I hope he turns out to be great!!

 

Go BILLS !!!

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